IS DEMOCRACY DYING?

 

The stars have never been more aligned for change. There is turmoil in every sphere of activity whether it be political, social, global, economic, climatic, religious adherence or societal value systems by which people live by. These transformational episodes in history have often been associated with the way communication is effected between peoples.  While planet earth is reverberating with conflicts it is the political order upheaval that is the central focus of this blog. In this week's news, for example, Italy has a new right wing coalition government and the Iranian theocracy is in flames. However, it is the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine that will decide whether the world’s nations will generally be governed by varying democratic processes or by a dictatorship where the people have no or few rights in return supposedly for safety and stability.

As history has shown again and again, leadership is key to deciding the direction of the future. It can be argued that the leaders are merely articulating what society wants but that is not the reality. Society perceives it the way it is reflected in the media, who report what direction, policy or action might occur. Invariably they will argue that “…. it is up to “Putin or Zelensky or whoever”.  There are five leaders who are central to the current democratic crisis  -  Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin, Volodmyr Zelensky, Xi Jinping and Donald J. Trump.

 Democracy as it has been understood to mean for nearly a century has been challenged by a world wide phenomenon called “populism” which is allied to the political systems in Russia and China. The traditional Western alliance is on shaky grounds from within and without. For the moment the conflict is being waged by internal struggles in the traditional democracies and by a war being conducted between Ukraine and Russia. The central battle within the a democracy is taking place in the world’s most powerful nation and oldest democracy, America. It is being led by Donald Trump who has hijacked one of the two political parties and who although his influence is diminishing he is still the leader of one of the two American political parties.

SOCIETAL AND POLITICAL UPHEAVAL FACILITATED BY COMMUNICATION ADVANCES

It has been shown that a change in communication modalities facilitate major cataclysmic societal and political change. The printing press heralded the Reformation that axed the Church’s absolute sovereignty in favor, ultimately of the nation state. The latter was preceded by religious wars that resulted in the death of a third of the European population. The twentieth century and its forerunner the Age of Enlightenment saw the rise of nationalism accompanied by the market economy and democracy expressed differently in the political systems of welfare societies, fascism and “Communist” autocracy. These three systems precipitated two World Wars and a “Cold War”, which lasted a half a century.

The means of facilitating this twentieth century change was via the radio, movie production and television It was in these formats that Stalin, Hitler, Churchill and Roosevelt and their successors dominated the world political, societal, values and belief system for over a half a century. “Communism” failed because it was never “Communism” but nothing but an imperial dictatorship, fascism collapsed because of its barbarism and reliance on racist ideology while democracy manifested through varieties of welfare states thrived. Francis Fukuyama the famed political scientist noted the dramatic rise of democracies from the  nineteen seventies that were members of the UNO. Now nearly seventy percent have some form of democratic government. It was interesting to note that notwithstanding the positive nature of the political, economic and societal changes, the outcomes were decided by wars. Ideas sadly had to be backed by guns.

WHERE WE ARE TODAY

Today democracy is under challenge as unbridled free market philosophy and unchecked “democratic” power have produced inequities of wealth and opportunity, unashamed individualism, loss of community and disenchantment of the populace in it’s government, religions and social norms. The disenchanted, wittingly or unwittingly, have joined with racists, neo nazis, right wing extremists, radical religionists and the like to form coalitions against the establishment governments, who whatever their philosophy is they are perceived as the overlord establishment.

 The protagonists modus operandi is wallowing in victimhood and blaming the "other" rather than help improve society. The internet with its instant global connections have allowed coalitions to form and in many instances magnify then unify forces that oppose democracy. Besides these groups two major powers have a vital interest in proving democracy a failure - Russia and China with India more than an interested spectator. 

China has grown powerful by adapting the free market system which they have attempted to control by an authoritarian political approach. Russia on the other hand haven’t even bothered to build a manufacturing economy relying  on their vast energy revenues to sustain their economy. The capitalism they resorted to was to dish out massive state enterprises to individuals referred to as oligarchs who in return for the favor support the President both politically and financially.

The globalization of the world, in this instance through the internet, has resulted in the ease of what appeared to be fringe  political, social and religious groups becoming international agents for change. The internet has provided the platform for diverse groups, countries and movements to form a coalition against democracy.

Ironically the systems and politicians that have challenged democracy are today referred to as "populists", who cynically identify with the “oppressed” claiming that if elected to the position of unfettered power that “they alone can fix it”. Overtly and covertly they are being supported by Russia and China with India very much on the fence. These three major powers’ objective is to reassure their own citizenry that democracy is corrupt, inefficient and a non functioning method of government. This gives them license for their authoritarian dictatorial behavior and to savage opposition.

THE PARADIGM CHANGE IN THE WORLD ORDER BY THE TRUMP/PUTIN  RELATIONSHIP 

In relation to the changing world order nothing was more significant than the entry of Donald J. Trump onto the American political scene. Trump whether it be during his mass rallies, interviews,  his appointments, or construction of the “Republican” election platform, from the get go, made it quite clear that Putin and his style of governing was what he favored. From early on he showed no allegiance to the traditional democratic institutions of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or the European Union. The Trump - Putin  axis would form the nidus of all that followed. If anyone has any doubt as to the significance of this liaison they should read Peter Strzok's expose, Compromised. Strzok was a leader in the FBI counter intelligence operation into the Russian involvement in the 2016 Presidential election.

 It is also no co incidence that Trump used the modern form of communication which could reach people instantaneously to great effect. He had a over a hundred million followers on Twitter and FaceBook. His usage and impact of this medium was a main contributor both to his election and to the organization of the January 6 undemocratic insurrection. His impact via Twitter was revealed by a whistleblower who has testified to the January 6 Hearing Committee. It is noteworthy that she explained to the Washington Post, that she saw unfettered Trump not only a threat to American Democracy but the manner in which it fostered violence and the like -  a societal threat to our planet.

It is public record that Trump’s great admirer, Vladimir Putin, actively backed his candidacy for President. It requires no stretch of the imagination to accept that “populist” Trump and Russia’s Putin’s views of democracy were ad idem. Trump through his actions on behalf of America, which is the most powerful country and democracy in the world, threw the conventional democratic allies into a panic. Trump besides attacking his own institutions, administration and intelligence systems, by openly favoring Putin empowered the Russian dictator and his authoritarian views. When Trump threatened to bust NATO, the bulwark of the free world’s victory over Soviet totalitarianism, the USA military and civil servants did their best to paper the cracks. 

Trump’s electoral coalition included, those that had financially suffered as a result of globalization, right wing groups from neo nazis to simple racists, religious fundamentalists and the members of the Republican Party who believed in their party and its leader, right or wrong. He seemed all set for a second term in 2020 and the majority of Americans shuddered with the “free world”.

Ironically it was Trump’s support of a racist group in a riot in Charlottesville Virginia that identified with the pro slavery Confederacy that provoked the elderly Joe Biden into announcing his candidacy for Presidency. He recognized the threat of a Trumpian United States being part of a world wide coalition of angry citizens, racists, neo nazis supporting the anti democratic agenda of Russia and China. Trump has proved far more dangerous and "semi" fascist than imagined. There is little doubt that whether Biden runs again is dependent on whether Trump or a sanitized Trump is the “Republican” nominee. Trump may be down but he is not out.

TRUMP ZELENSKY BIDEN AND RUSSIA AND THE “REPUBLICAN LEGISLATORS”

In retrospect Trump’s “perfect call” in July 2019  to Volodymyr Zelensky, three months after the novice was elected as President of corrupt and war torn Ukraine indicated much of what is now evident. Zelensky requested delivery of the money that had been allocated by Congress to fight his war against Russia who had already seized portions of his country. Trump made what could have been a simple request to the embattled President as a condition of releasing the moneys. He wanted dirt on the Bidens or at least announce that there was to be an investigation into them. 

The fact that Zelensky, who had thus far only played a President on TV, failed to deliver what Trump demanded is unbelievable testimony to his integrity. The fact that Trump only released the money three months later when a whistleblower revealed the contents of his quid pro quo demand to deliver what Congress had ordered him to do is indicative of whose side Trump was on - if any further proof was needed. The stakes were tremendously high which again has now become evident - Putin wanted to smash NATO where the Ukrainians wanted to be and rebuild the old Soviet Union. 

What is also significant is that in 2019 there were really only three people of consequence who considered the seasoned politician Joseph Biden as the next President. There was Biden himself, the highly respected Democratic operative James Clyburn and Donald J. Trump. Zelensky had to have a lot of nous not to mix into American politics. It is history that this disgusting episode by an American President, who besides siding with the enemy of an ally whom America was supporting in a war, resulted in his first impeachment. The “Republicans” did what they have done all along sacrificed their souls for political gain. 

Like everything else with Trump this did not only involve a phone call there was a full court press to effect his objective involving the usual suspects such as Rudi Giuliani and anyone else he could pressure. The subsequent impeachment of Trump showed his behavior off in stark terms which would have made Richard Nixon blush. The  trial in the Senate to remove him from office was only considered by a few "Republicans" as impeachable some of whom even thought he had “learned his lesson”. The “Republicans” were continuing their policy of appeasing a "populist" thug who was fashioning their party into an autocratic dictatorship. A thug who was conspiring with expansionistic neo fascist Putin whom Trump acknowledged “killed people”. 

As Adam Schiff so eloquently warned, Trump would do this again and again. Trump’s initial acceptance of Putin “killing people” has escalated into the thousands in Ukraine. The Forty Fifth President to this day in his psychotic rants and adherence to Q,Anon conspiracy theorists, who love him and therefore he loves, still claims Putin is a “genius”. He is so desperate that he openly punts the theory that the world is run by pedophiles who control the dark state. Needless to say Trump has not got around to condemn Putin and Russia and has left little doubt as to who he will ally with if he becomes President in 2024.

 In fact a simple read of the current position is that Trump regardless of his legal status will win the “Republican” Presidential primary. 

PUTIN, XI PING AND THE NEW WORLD ERA IN FEBRUARY 2022

 

In February 2022 Putin believed that the time had come to put the jewel Ukraine back in the USSR crown, They had an inexperienced President with obviously no developed party and administation infrastructure. The democratic world were wary of America just having lived through the Trump era. They also had just stood by for eight years and accepted Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk as de facto part of greater Russia. Biden was weak within America and internationally and had an aversion to American involvement in battles far from home. He had taken the risk of just pulling his troops out of Afghanistan and taken the criticism on the chin. His irrelevance could not better illustrated by the fact that no one not even Zelensky heeded his warning that the Russian Premier was about to attempt to take over the whole of Ukraine.

The only unfinished business Putin had on his calendar was to go chat up his major ally Xi and off he went to detail his land grab. There was no better place to be seen publicly than at the Winter Olympics being held in Beijing. Xi had nothing to lose especially as he had similar plans for Taiwan. So just in case there was any doubt as to the standing of the relationship between the two super powers they issued a statement which was akin to a declaration of war. They declared: 

“A new era in global order”, while endorsing one another in their Ukrainian and Taiwan ambitions. They challenged the liberal  United States democracy as the model for the world and swore that, “Friendship between their two States, (Russia and China), has no limits, and there are no forbidden areas of cooperation”.  

At that moment Xi was cock a hoop. Then his Covid figures were lower than anyone else. He had pulled off a Covid free Olympics that no one said he could do and he obviously agreed with Putin’s logic. (He should have questioned his intelligence gathering but dictators never do as anyone who brings them stuff they don’t like they tell them they are wrong. Hitler told his Intelligence operators not to bring him “defeatist statistics” and we all know what Trump told the world in Helsinki). They also hardly could given much thought to the capabilities of the new Ukrainian President

ZELENSKY

And so a new world hero was born Volodmyer Zelensky who emerged as an international icon in no time .He crushed any glimmer of hope that Kviv would be overrun in a few days rallied his country in great hardship was an articulate advocate for more and more aid while being exceedingly grateful for what they had already given. The Russian army suffered great losses and the position after six months is that old Volodymyer has them on the run. His troops have regained territory taken by the Russians and he has vowed to restore that seized in 2014. It is fair to say the comparison to Churchill is not hyperbole. There is little doubt too that no world leader in the democracy camp was talking about “Peace in our Time”:

He is also mindful that the Russian atrocities and war crimes have to be meticulously documented. Hopefully it will serve as a lesson and a reminder.

BIDEN

What the media and consequently the electorate don’t understand about Biden is you don’t really know what is going on as he is not on a soap box or social media fourteen times a day. He is the arch internal politician and to quote him, “He get’s things done”. Only now it has been learned that he has been warning Putin for months not to use nuclear weapons. For local recognition he has passed legislation which Congress had not done for years. No one knew he was talking to the fiftieth Democrat Joe Manchin who was publicly sabotaging Biden's agenda. 

 

So it was full steam ahead with providing weaponry and creating coalitions to take Putin on. He had to be doing deals with Zelensky that he was phasing in the arms and was only to pleased that Zelensky was wailing that it was not enough. Biden had made it quite clear that he did not want to be involved in any action that would trigger off a Third World War while he and the rest of the "free" world were supplying the wherewithal to defend and then repel the Russians.

 NATO hung tough and increased its membership dramatically with the addition of Finland and Sweden and the European Union promised to put Ukraine’s application for membership on a fast track. The Europeans have accepted that it is going to be a cold winter as Russia plays its last energy card as the arms and the money keep flowing in to Ukraine.

So Putin read Biden wrong as well as Zelensky, NATO, Sweden Finland and the EU. 

WHAT NOW

Putin is in a royal mess being attacked by the left and the right. It will be a miracle if he survives. Hundreds of thousands have fled the country to dodge the draft. Even in the Russian Duma legislators are appealing for the truth claiming that, "The Russian people aren't stupid". There will be no election to vote him out. There will either be a deal or a coup. His ally XI with whom he was going to change the world order has raised “concerns” and India’s Modi has told him again and again that now is not the time for war.

Nobody knows Putin’s next move not even Putin. The latter blows up pipe lines which he will need, farcically annexes territory to convince those fleeing the country in the tens of thousands to come fight to defend their motherland. Bungles a partial mobilization of Russians causing criticism and protest to come out publicly and for him to apologize. 

Biden who is not an alarmist has warned of a nuclear "Armageddon" at highest since the Cuban crisis in 1962.

Putin and Trump are the outcomes for those who seek simplistic solutions to complex problems. Let one man decide everything instead of a messy democracy, “I alone can fix  it”. They can also destroy the world 

 AT THE END OF THE DAY

The American midterm elections have a disproportionate importance for the future of democracy both in America and the world.  Biden needs to control the House and Senate and the Trumpian candidates need to be thrashed as well as their “Republican” hangers on. Sadly that is not the way democracy works. Each individual decides what the key issue is. (A large number don't even bother to vote). Fortuitously this time round  this coincides with crucial issues such as a woman’s right to control her body, gun control and welfare programs. Others can rate their priorities as inflation that Covid produced or the social issues relating to what can be taught at school, gender identity and immigration. 

As for the "Republican" Party they are a disgrace and history will judge them harshly. If democracy dies they will have more than done their fair share to hasten its collapse. Of course they have had more than a little help from their friends on the Trump Supreme Court.

MIDTERMS? THEY ARE ABOUT BIDEN AND TRUMP - STUPID!

Neither President Joe Biden or Former President Donald Trump are on the ballot in the midterm elections in 2022. Trump's constant wailing added to Biden’s dramatic warning that the MAGA Trump “Republican” Party posed an existential authoritarian threat to the nation, has ensured that the midterms will decide, in the terminology of Biden, “The Soul of the Nation”.  

Up till now the election narratives were that the “Republicans” were challenging Biden’s disastrous Presidency, victim Trump was claiming it was about officially putting him back in the WhiteHouse while Biden just stayed mum because he was ostensibly in such a weak position. But the options of the former President are running out. He lost his bid to overturn the 2020 election and his foot soldiers are facing long jail terms while daily his illegal activities are being exposed. The undisguised threat is that there will be violence if Trump is once again “cheated” but how and what is vague. In short he is desperate as his world seems to be coming apart at the seams and the political climate is tense and uncertain.

 With the mood and events changing Biden leaped right in and warned in stark terms that Trump and his MAGA crowd were jettisoning democracy. His intervention was timed with Democrat fortunes on the rise, his own numbers up with Trump’s legal and political woes spreading like wild fire. In fact by going after Trump by name Biden ensured that the latter would redouble his efforts to make the election about his claim to the Presidency, an approach at odds with the “Republican” establishment who want to make it all about senile Biden. By provoking the MAGA monarch Biden would keep the focus on Trump thereby helping  buck the historical trend where, in the midterms, the WhiteHouse Presidential Party loses legislatively. Biden sensing the historical flexion point America was at switched his message to the very reason that had motivated him to run in the first place - the racist march in Charlottesville. Trump had claimed there were some very good people amongst the violent crowd who were screaming, “The Jews Won’t Replace Us”. Biden announced his candidature maintaining that,  “… this was not who we were” and has continued to claim "we" are about the evolving American story,

TRUMP RAGES ON BUT THE REPUBLICANS STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO WIN THE HOUSE 

The “Republicans” have tried to shut Trump up so they can concentrate on the “Disaster of the Biden Presidency”. There was no way that Trump was going to allow this to happen. Trump knows, as do the weak “Republican” legislature leadership  that he controls the “Republican” base and they are first and foremost MAGA Trumpists. The “Republican” pathetic flag bearers are also acutely aware that they cannot win the midterms with what amounts, at most, to thirty to thirty- five percent that represent the MAGA electorate. The additional votes have to be delivered by the non MAGA “GOP”. To have a chance the “Republicans” must make the economy central as well as the other “disastrous” Biden policies. However the crucial swing groups don’t need reminding daily that the Forty - Fifth President is off the rails and that the central issue is that he still is the real President. Trump with Biden egging him on will see to it they have no choice.

Up till now there has been a kinda stale mate with Biden nursing his low approval ratings shutting up and allowing the megalomaniacal Trump to steadily eat away at what hope the “Republicans” had of winning the Senate. Trump is openly fighting McConnell who sees himself losing grip on power, he so desperately craves, as the “MAGA” Trump Senate nominees fritter away their chances in key Senate races such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and even making North Carolina, Ohio and Florida move to just “lean Republican”. However the House seemed safely in the hands of MAGA McCarthy with all the gerrymandering and voter suppression ensuring at least a turnover of the half a dozen seats needed to control the House of Representatives. In so doing McCarthy would kibosh any further advances of the Biden agenda, entrench authoritarianism, (“semi fascism”) and yes impeach Biden!. He also probably would erect statues of Trump on a horse in every town square in America.

But circumstances are slowly changing in a number of directions.

SOCIAL POLICY - THE “GOP” GOT WHAT THEY WISHED FOR NO ABORTIONS AND ALL THE GUNS THEY DREAMED OF

The Supreme Court that the “Republicans” had fought for was finally put into place by MAGA Trump. Suddenly the individual rights to choose that America was supposed to be all about were unceremoniously axed. No more freedom of choice including provisions that were akin to the sacrificing of women in dangerous childbirth situations. The “Republican” barbarism that their ill thought out ban on what amounted to all circumstances of abnormal menstrual bleeding which could represent a life or death situation or a delayed period was accompanied with open threats to the right to contraception, gay and interracial marriage and banning of other acts pf “privacy”. 

These Supreme Court decisions added to the floodgates of money that the Robert’s Court had already opened together with an invitation for States to do what they like with voting rights. Hysteria followed as all had proudly owned MAGA Trump’s abortion achievement. They believed this is what the women of America really wanted and the suburban women that had left Trump in 2020 would flock back in appreciation. Then the chickens came home to roost.The fuddy duddy old men who controlled the Republican State legislatures had received the go ahead to once and for all keep women in their place and draconian legislation was enacted with unforeseen tragic outcomes. 

The reaction to this hubris by the misogynists was swift. Red “Republican” Kansas in a referendum on the issue of abortion, by sixty to forty majority, opted for a women’s right to choose. A Republican seat in a NY bye election switched Democrat and the most high profile disaster was when Sarah Palin, MAGA card carrier deluxe, with Trump rallies behind her, lost a seat in Alaska that the Republicans had held for seventy years. Suddenly the number of wringing endorsements for banning all “abortions” even those that were miscarriages started disappearing from web sites of the House “Republican” candidates. But it was too late.

Throughout the country women are registering to vote in never before seen numbers. Ironically they are seeing this for what it is a deprivation of rights. Abortion has always been a complicated issue with strong religious and medical overtones. Now it is inclusive of ectopic pregnancy, eleven year rape victims, miscarriages, and even conception. Medications that are used for rheumatoid arthritis and menopause and the like are being withheld as they are also used as treatment of medical abortions. 

The inhumanity, cruelty, authoritarianism, arrogance, misogyny, ignorance that the “men” have foist on society is staggering. Just to give one of many examples of the paternalism and insensitivity of one of the many leading protagonists of the pro life movement Texas Governor Abbot, who already had banned “abortions” after six weeks of a missed period -  a time when most women have not yet had a pregnancy diagnosed.  Abbot under pressure has made a concession, women who are raped have now been given a reprieve, if they report it of course, by allowing to take the Plan B pill the next morning. The latter would interfere with conception.

 In some ways the sexist attitude surrounding the issue is a proxy for the very issue Biden has highlighted - freedom of choice and the non interference in individuals lives. The “Republicans” need to hold educational classes on the Nineteenth Amendment to the Constitution passed over a hundred years ago giving women the franchise. They may also want to pour over the First Amendment which separates church from state.

 Obviously with the unexpected reaction by even “pro life” women who believe that women who have miscarriages or are raped or who even choose not to go through with a pregnancy for any reason are entitled to their decision has rocked the MAGA "Republicans". It is really no one else’s business to foist their value system and even religious beliefs on what has to be a painful, stressful and even life threatening situation. That is certainly not what the Founders had in mind!

The taking of women for granted is not the only change in the political landscape.

TRUMP GOING FROM BAD TO WORSE

Politically and legally Trump continued going backwards. Three of his key nominees for Senate were in disastrous shape. The “Republican” generic vote went from plus four to minus four, the polls reflected Biden now leading Trump by fifty percent versus forty three percent. The cult leader with his Red Caps was holding his MAGA rallies but the themes were still his victimization by Biden, the Justice Department and the FBI and that his beautiful Mar a Largo had been raided cutting down the number of place where he could reside as he had been illegally evicted from the WhiteHouse. He could not be laughed off by the “Republican” Establishment because two hundred and fifty candidates for key positions in the midterm election backed his supposition that he had been robbed in 2020. Apparently the official position of the “Republican” Party is that Top Secret documents and the nuclear codes are perfectly safe at Mar a Lago in Trump’s desk. 

Legally the revelation that he had hidden classified documents at his Country Club resulted in more condemnation notably from former Attorney General Barr who had carried his water for so long. In fact there is no defense to the crime. Even though the Federalist nominated Judge by delaying the investigation to appoint a Master to ensure that his personal love letters to Kim Jun Un were not read by the Justice Department will provide some respite. In the words of Trump’s mentor Roy Cohn, “Don’t tell me what the law is tell me who the Judge is”.Although Trump used the search warrant to rally his troops there is not any indication that it swung one non MAGA voter to back the “Republican” cause in the midterms which ostensibly this is all about. Every “Republican” candidate must be made to answer whether they want this, at kindest, irresponsible politician, as head of their Party and their next Presidential candidate, 

The classified information was such a scandal the world forgot Trump was already on the ropes with his other legal dramas that were unfolding everywhere. In addition he was losing the public opinion battle on the January 6 insurrection. The House January 6 investigation had shown a wide spread conspiracy to suppress the will of the electorate by preventing the transferring of  power.

In addition between now and the November elections the January 6 Committee are going to provide more public revelations of the conspiracy. None of this can result in a trove of voters flocking to MAGA Trump who whether MAGA McCarthy likes it or not is the face of his party. 

It also didn’t help the cause that Biden had found his voice

BIDEN

President Biden with a number of legislative victories under his belt, in Jeffersonian terms, let the nation know the fork in the road they were now facing. Speaking in front of Independence Hall he spelt out the options the country faced - an evolving democracy or a “semi fascist” state. Trump only believed in elections that he won otherwise he was cheated and was entitled to remain in power. In record time Biden was back on the campaign trail in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania the Democrats best pick up chances for the Senate, 

With his allusions to the dark cloud that was threatening the country Biden hammered home the threats of violence that had been implied should Trump be indicted. Suddenly as he moved across the Rust Belt Biden he became the news, Trump’s same old same old was getting just that old. He upped the rhetoric claiming that it was Biden who was the threat as well as his appointed head of the FBI. Trump all but promised pardons for the jailed “patriots” who had fought to overturn the election thereby implicitly giving the go ahead to the next lot. 

Biden is on a roll. His numbers are creeping up, the job numbers increase and the MAGA guys are between a rock and a hard place. Those in close races can’t win without Trump and certainly will lose with him

WHERE TO NOW?

 Now before Jay H. Ell gets carried away the odds makers still heavily favor the “GOP” to win the House but many are a least conceding the door is slightly ajar for a surprise. Eight weeks in a political campaign is a long time. 

The fact that Trump is alive and kicking is a devastating indictment of the American Judicial System. If after seven decades it catches up with him he is quite prepared to lead from behind and fight to the last MAGA cult member.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It still is a long long way to November but the days will roll by quickly when they reach October.

No one not anybody knows how this cookie will crumble. 

ABORTION, TRUMP, ALITO, BIDEN MAR A LAGO AND THE MIDTERMS

In a historical week, dwarfed as usual by the shattering news about Trump’s escalating alleged criminality, the Biden Democrats passed legislation involving climate change, forcing companies and the rich to pay their fair share, lowering drug and health care costs, and stimulating the formation of semiconductor chips companies that are essential for every modern economy from defense to cars to fridges and finally providing health care for veterans who for decades had been exposed to cancer causing toxins. To cap Biden’s week, like anyone cares, was the lowering of inflation and gas prices. The media cycle was, as usual, all about the alleged criminality of the “Republicans” own megalomaniac for the ages, Donald Trump. Not that it is the news that anyone else would be exited about but Donald Trump is not anyone and for him any spotlight can raise money.

So of course grabbing the head lines was the Forty - Fifth President whose temporary White House, Mar A Lago, was subject to a court ordered search warrant executed by the Department of Justice. Even by Trump standards the outcome was electrifying, boxes of classified documents including those that were for a few eyes only - the Washington Post reporting that they included those on nuclear weaponry - were carted away. No wonder one of the suspected crimes on the court order was espionage. Let that sink in espionage a term sanctioned by a Federal Judge.

Incidentally those violence seeking internet Trump supporters who want to murder the Attorney General need to stick around cause Mar A Lago is just a curtain raiser to the investigations of the criminality of their Fuhrer. There is still the outcome of January 6 investigations to follow, In case the faithful might have missed it Trump, who had previously categorically judged that only the mob plead the Fifth Amendment to avoid incrimination in a deposition, identified himself as such by pleading the Fifth in the crucial case in New York that could bankrupt him and his Organization. The date for the trial of his life long accountant of the Trump Organization was set  and he was involved in a plea deal and an Appeals Court ordered him to produce his tax records to the House Ways and Means Committee in what had ti have been a momentous week even by his standards, To cap it all his lead lawyer Rudi Giuliani was named as a target in a criminal investigation in Georgia.

It is fair to conclude that as good a week as Biden had was juxtaposed with the disaster of Trump’s. However although these events will impact the 2022 midterm elections none will dominate the outcome more than the issue that is central to all women, and men for that matter, - abortion.. 

PRO LIFE AND PRO CHOICE - THE ISSUE

One of the great big ironies of the clash between the Pro Life and Pro Choice movements is that both have as their central thesis the sanctity of life. The problem then arises whose life - that of a fetus or the mother. Then it rolls onto what is life and what is the sanctity of the mother. To a large extent the issue had been resolved in virtually every country in the world, even Orban’s Hungary, that the sanctity of the mother overrode that of fetal material till the latter could become a viable child, (approximately twenty - four weeks gestation) then it could be a medical decision as to the risks and to whom.

In the USA all hell broke loose when the Supreme Court in all its wisdom gave the go ahead for even six week fetal material the size of a baked bean to assume transcendence over the mother. A large section of women interpreted this as a misogynist move without any regard to the consequences. The Republicans were rapturous in hailing this as a victory for the ages. Even more significant in the ruling was that The Court  didn’t differentiate between elective abortions, miscarriages which occur in one out of four pregnancies, life threatening ectopic pregnancies which occur outside the womb and unlivable fetal abnormalities. The latter dilemmas threw the medical world in chaos.

So onto the story of the impact of the decision.  

THE IMMEDIATE RESPONSE

The banning of the Constitutional right of a woman to control her body, was made possible by the Trump three judicial appointees with the opinion written by the smug self righteous Justice Samuel Alito and was heralded by the “Republican Party” with a frantic rush by “Republican”  State legislatures to ban outright a legal termination of a pregnancy. The only rare debate among the lemmings was whether or not to make an exception for reported to the police rape and incest and the life of a mother. Neither was any attempt made to address ectopic pregnancies and miscarriages. 

As Jay H. Ell blogged on June 29 2022 “ Trump, McConnell and the GOP be Careful What You Wish For”, the expected backlash has rocked the midterm American electorate in a historical way. (To find the blog go to Archive on the right of the page and click on June 2022 and then click on the blog). The outright arrogance of Samuel Alito who then went to Rome and basically said “Sucks to women, I just don’t care”. Adding to the political flavor of the judicial opinion was Justice Thomas’s opinion in support of the position that the other decisions involving constitutional  privacy such as contraception and same sex marriage should go the same way. Fascinatingly he didn’t mention inter racial marriage which falls under the same rubric and he must have been shocked to the core when Viktor Orban the new co leader of the faith, at his guest appearance at CPAP, condemned inter racial marriage.

WHAT’S IN IT FOR TRUMP?

The newest string to the Donald’s bow is the raid on Mar A Lago his “beautiful” home where his not well designed safe was opened.. This will solidify his already solidified alt right base, produce the usual sycophantic support  and promises for retribution from the “Republican” legislators but not one more vote. The leak from Susan Glaser and Peter Baker’s new book that he wanted his Generals to be just like the Nazi Generals will bring cheers from you know who but will not bring back the votes from the Independents and the disaffected Republicans that he has already lost. 

For the moment the principle game changer is abortion.

The only “Republican” that the women’s right to privacy being revoked helps is Donald J. Trump, who is credited with this success - rightly so Jay H. Ell would opine. Evangelical Protestants  represent fifty - six percent of the Republicans as do thirty percent of the Catholics all of whose religions have a very tough line on abortion≥. Again of that group that voted for Trump their support was rock solid anyway and the decision is unlikely to add to his tally.  However the certainty of their votes is what keeps Trump head and shoulders above the rest of Republican Presidential wannabes. Of course Trump is no fool so his victory is not part of his spiel. He still is on about the 2020 election. He has the alt right and all the militants that aren’t locked up to think about as well.

His standing amongst the base may be as assured as ever but  the January 6 hearings have done his overall support harm. The Congressional “Republican” Party have taken a knock too but with Trump’s support of the base they cannot abandon him. Rather they have dumped Trump’s critics, chief among them Representative Liz Cheney who has as her mission to make sure he never becomes President again. In the latter regard his legal jeopardy has crescendoed in the last few months, especially this week. 

Trump is more than aware that you can’r win a lottery without a ticket so at the moment he hopes to survive even if indicted and as long as not convicted he will win the Republic nomination, where the abortion decision helps him. Then he could become President. After all look what happened in 2016 when Hillary was way ahead in the polls and that amoral James Comey, Head of the FBI, announced to the ecstatic Republicans, against all established protocol, that he was reopening the ludicrous investigation into Hillary Clinton’s e - mails. Clinton’s internal polls showed the impact as Trump reframed Comey from a ‘slime ball” to a hero.

WHAT’S IN IT FOR JUSTICE SAMUEL ALITO AND CONSEQUENTLY AMERICA

To frame Alito’s newly found importance The Supreme Court is the third branch of government in America and the final arbiter of all matters including what laws are constitutional or not.

Justice Samuel Alito who is Clarence Thomas’s junior in seniority by fifteen years has succeeded in becoming the leader of the  six Conservative judges on the Supreme Court, a position Thomas has held to date. The very fact that he not Thomas wrote the opinion axing the constitutional right to abortion has vaulted him to the top of the heap. He claimed that the fifty year old Roe v Wade precedent was “egregiously wrong” stunning the legal world and the world in general. Alito’s religiosity is widely known. However his utter disdain and even cruelty for what the outcome would be for a ten year olds that were raped and would be forced to deliver a baby had certainly never been on display. In addition lumping everyone not carrying a pregnancy to term and lumping health care workers together with “abortionists” shows a depth of ignorance at kindest as to the fate of women and doctors whether the former had had a miscarriage, an ectopic pregnancy, or till then a legal abortion. 

Alito’s address at the Notre Dame Religious Liberty Summit in Rome following his decision, when he would have had some idea as to the negative and dangerous impact of the Court ruling underscored his religious values and the “challenge for those who wanted to protect religious liberty”. He claimed that, “Religious liberty is under attack… because it is dangerous to those who want to hold complete power….. “it probably grows out of something dark and deep in the human DNA…” Presumably that included the right to terminate a pregnancy.

There can be little doubt that Justice Alito allowed his religious values to influence his decision. As Justice Sotomayor opined that nothing had changed in medicine or society to overturn a long standing precedent but the composition of the court. Incidentally Alito stated in his confirmation that the centrality of precedent guided his decision making,.

The upshot is that Samuel Alito is the de facto  Chief Justice. He rather than Roberts will be the final arbiter as to what the Constitution of America is and if the approval rate of the Supreme Court is currently twenty percent it can still go lower.

In case he hasn’t noticed he is about to become the savior of the Democratic Party and as popular as the head of the Taliban is with women.

SOCIETY RELIGION KANSAS AND THE COMPLICATED ISSUE OF ABORTION 

As Jay H. Ell tried to explain what a complicated issue abortion is in his blog, of July, 24, “Have the Democrats Any Hope in the Midterms”, this was not for the education of women but rather of men. As Trump doesn’t read hopefully Justice Alito might. If he hasn’t he might want to learn a bit about the subject. Also the Supreme Court is supposed to make decisions in the context of society as a whole not in the interests of just one group as they have appeared to have done in this context.

Societal opinion as reflected in the polls has ranged from seventy to eighty percent who wanted Roe to remain law, The assumption was that of course that was just the Democrats. So far the only test has been a plebiscite in the red state of Kansas which Trump beat Biden by fifteen percent. The latter’s state assembly is awash with Republicans. It is really only the fundamentalists who share Alito et al’s opinion on abortion. Both Islam and Judaism for example prioritize the sanctity of life of the mother. There is even litigation by a Jewish Religious Sect that their constitutional right to carry out this dictum has been overridden by this decision, The complaint alleges that constitutionally church and state are separate.

To date in the Primaries there has not been too much interest in the Democratic Primaries that are genteel compared to those of the Republicans where the battle for the soul of the Party goes on. Largely the Trumpists have won. Consequently the turn out for the Democrats has been nineteen percent below the 2018 midterms and the Republicans up by a similar percent. The Kansa referendum on dumping the abortion rights was held on Primary Day in the belief that this would favor the Republicans. Well guess what the Dems increased their turn out from 2018 midterms by eighty percent. Their new voter registration was predominantly women and abortion rights won by sixty to forty percent in red Kansas.

Abortion what ever pollsters may say is a top issue for 2022 and 2024,

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Biden is on a roll as his approval rates go up. Trump is in bad shape and he is what the 2022 election is going to be about. The economy is improving and there are still three months to go. 

The Democrats are on the way to increasing their majority in the Senate and are slowly improving their chances to retain the House. 

The “Republicans” have chosen not to hang alone but to hang together. Their policy is Trump is President, impeach Biden, investigate the January 6 Committee and the Department of Justice

Just in case there was any doubt as to that Trump is the “Republican” Party the recent Primary Fights including the elimination of Liz Cheney make it clear that the “Republican” Party is a cult.

Just in case everyone thinks Liz Cheney is the answer to world tension it should not be forgotten that she voted for Trump’s policies over ninety percent of the time and hailed Justice Alito’s decision on abortion.

 

It is more than a bit scary that Samuel Alito is in charge of the Third Branch of Government. On can only hope that he will not reverse legislation on Constitutional grounds. 

Abortion is turning into a central issue in the forthcoming election but Trump's alleged criminality has to be impacting Independents and democratic Republicans.

It stands to reason that the importance of the 2022 mid term elections cannot be overemphasized. 

TRUMP NOW AND AFTER - DUCK OR NO DINNER?

The imminent demise of Donald J. Trump has been a thing ever since he ventured into a property development in Manhattan in 1971. From the get go Trump sought to be the center of the news cycle both with his oversize personality and outlandish projects while always raising concerns of one sort or another about money transactions. Fifty years later the future of Trump seems to be finally reaching its denouement. As he all but trumpets his third run for the Presidency, the Attorney General has made it quite clear that he will seek to hold anyone who was responsible for the attempt to interrupt the peaceful of transfer of power from one administration to another. For the umpteenth time a Trump weary world look at his projected comeuppance with bored disbelief. The cynicism was shattered with last weeks events surrounding criminal investigations into his behavior hot on the heals of the explosive January 6 House Investigation hearings.

Trump is throwing the dice once again. In the past even if they rolled against him he lived to fight another day. This time it appears to be duck or no dinner. He is either going to be the Forty - Fifth President all over again or a defendant in the dock. This time if he fails there is no hiatus between disasters. Even if it was possible as he suggested, in his sick return to Washington to the faithful, that if he disappeared from the scene they would stop persecuting him,  - “a friend told him that he was the greatest persecuted person in American history”. It is just not going to happen.. He has rolled the dice once too much. Trump can reflect back that it has been a great run, but in the words of Sinatra, “It was just one of those things”. Trump to date has believed that if he commits crimes in public he cannot be prosecuted but there had to be a reckoning. He can gain comfort from the fact that “the crazies” agree with him that he is not a “loser”. 

Having explained all that, even bearing in mind criminal liability, the big question still remains will Garland prosecute a former President? 

WHO IS MERRICK GARLAND?

When Barak Obama nominated Merrick Garland as a Supreme Court Justice in 2016 he did so in the knowledge that there was not a judicial soul who had a negative word to say about him. He was regarded as the epitome of a non prejudicial jurist with carefully thought and researched opinions in his role as Chief Justice of the DC Court of Appeals, the second highest court in the land. He had never ever been reversed by the Supreme Court. The Garland  Supreme Court nomination hearings would make it virtually impossible for the Republican controlled Senate not to confirm him. That fact led Mitch McConnell, who in morality is the very opposite of what Garland represents, not to take the slightest chance. He did not allow the nomination to be even put forward and waited a full year to pass. Then the totalitarian hurricane hit. Trump was elected and between the unholy duo of Trump and McConnell they sealed their ignominy by appointing three judges who misled the public as to their judicial philosophy. One of them Amy Barrett, McConnell rushed through in record time just days before a Presidential election as opposed to a year which he said was too close to an election to consider Garland. To put an exclamation point on the high regard of Garland, in this day of partisan extremism, his nomination to Attorney General garnered seventy votes.

As the January 6 House Hearing Committee proceeded with their breathtaking exposes of the coup, Merrick Garland plodded on ahead investigating and charging Trump’s foot soldiers, Frustration burst through all round. The criticism mounted in every circle, all but screaming that the ponderous arcane jurist was not cut out for the chief prosecutorial job. Even Biden was anonymously reported to have muttered frustration. 

There was some ambivalence on the issue. Trump was a former President of an opposing political party and all things being equal would win the “Republican” Party nomination for 2024. Prosecuting him could appear more in line with banana Republics than the world’s oldest democracy. 

THE DAYS ROLL BY AND THE WORLD CHANGES FOR TRUMP 

As the days rolled on 2022  the “Republicans” with a favorable midterm election in the offing did not need a crisis where they would have be forced to take sides on Trump so they did what they have done for five years in relation to the travesty that has made a mockery of their party - nothing!. More significantly Trump, who will never give in, would thwart any candidate that he hadn’t backed to exercise his waning power. Any election wherever and whenever it was held would be about him.

Ford had pardoned Nixon. It cost him his Presidency. Those in prosecution were furious but as the years passed and Nixon blended into a traditionalist post presidency the attitude changed. The late Leon Jaworski the Special Prosecutor in the Watergate probe finally concluded that Ford had been brave in his “To Heal a Nation” effort. However as the mal fides of the Trump regime became broader and deeper the growing resentment towards this precedent became wide spread. Although not legally binding it was all there was in history to lean on. The consensus was that was enough to keep the conservative attorney general busy chasing after Trump’s cannon fodder and leave Trump to the voters and history.

The Hearing Committee, after its chilling  expose where Trump was shown to actively spur on the insurrection and the death of his Vice President, released daily videos which were more and more damning. These included illustrating from the original text what Trump had personally crossed out in his speech on January 7 which was supposedly to condemn the insurrection. They also well exploded his lie, that was being perpetuated by his choir in Fox News that he had ten thousand troops on the ready. 

The pressure was mounting on the silent Department of Justice. But in a flash the bonsai escalated. Murdoch had already on one day had two of his lesser components of his evil empire, The New York Post and The Wall Street Journal condemn Trump. What followed rocked the existing narrative. During the day Pence and Trump Fox went to Washington, seventeen minutes of Pence was live on Fox and nil on Trump. On that very same day it was leaked that Vice President Pence’s legal council and Chief of Staff had appeared before a Grand Jury. It soon followed that Cassidy Hutchinson was cooperating with the Department of Justice. According to Alyssa Farah Griffin, Trump’s former Communication Secretary other WhiteHouse officials are confabbing with the Department of Justice. To put the cherry on the top the publicity shy Merrick Garland gave a sensational interview with NBC’s Lester Holt claiming that no - one was above the law.

GARLAND’S COMING OUT PARTY

Merrick Garland claimed that the Justice Department investigations into the attempt to hinder the peaceful transfer or power was the most wide ranging in the history. He stated that his investigations were outside the public eye. Holt pressed home the point when Garland indicated that “no one is above the law” - Garland matter of a factly countered that Presidential candidates don’t alter his schedule.

HOLT: ‘The indictment of a former president, and perhaps a candidate for president, would arguably tear the country apart. Is that your concern as you make your decision down the road here, do you have to think about things like that?’.

GARLAND: “We intend to hold everyone, anyone who was criminally responsible for the events surrounding January 6, for any attempt to interfere with the lawful transfer of power from one administration to another. That’s what we do. We don’t pay any attention to other issues like that”.

Garland acknowledged the incredible role that the House Investigating Committee had played. It appeared obvious that both sides have information the other has not. At this stage of the game there is no reason why the House files, which are massive, should not be moved across the street. Arrangements have been made for the first batch.

In retrospect Attorney General Garland with his judicial history is the only one who could have gotten away with such an historic statement. Fox News hardly commented. What would have raised a storm with anyone else has been acknowledged by all as a fact of life.

WHERE TO NOW?

Trump

As matters stand Trump still controls the largest chunk of the “Republican” Party. He is in this fight till the bitter end. It is all about him. It literally is “duck or no dinner”.He knows that if there are more than two candidates in the Republican Primary nothing will stop him getting the plurality of votes. Whether indicted or not he is going to run. He has been counted out time and again and stood up and come back firing. He is not remotely interested in “Republicanism””. In fact no one more than him would like to see Merrick Garland on the Supreme Court at this point in time. He does not give a hoot about abortion, second amendment rights and the environment. (If Cassidy Hutchinson is anything to go by you can put a “f….ing” in front of each of those subjects). 

Up to time of going into print the herd of sad sycophantic cynical “Republican” legislators have not deserted him and his collection of Senate candidate losers. Even Pence whom he wanted to string up in the public square talks fondly of the Trump/Pence years. De Santis thinks he can create a line going to the right of Trump…. Of the motley crew that are on the list of possibles. Pompeo, Halley, Christie, Abbott and Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, none of them have publicly condemned him. Even those candidates who are taking on the MAGA elite in the midterms are talking about irregularities in the 2020 election. By the time they wake up it will be too late as already fifty - five percent of their “Party” want another candidate. The penny has dropped at least for Secretary Pompeo who, following a string of other cabinet members, is giving a deposition to the January 6 Committee,….

 

Trump will just not keep out of the news in the belief that any news is good. His hosting of the Saudi breakaway golf tournament brought heaps of criticism from several quarters including the families of the 9/11 victims who Trump had admitted to that the Saudis were involved. Trump backtracked as he kept ringing the cash register. 

There is a cottage industry gathering around the MAGA name raking in the shekels. Peter Navarro a former advisor who is awaiting trial for failing has warned the former President that they are a collection of grifters. In fact Trump is at sixes and sevens. All that he knows is that he has over two hundred million dollars in his own re election account. There is but nothing that will stop him running again.

Trump’s Other Legal Woes

There are two legal investigations well under way conducted by two fearless African American women lead prosecutors. In Georgia the Fulton County District Attorney, Fanni Willis, has a grand jury investigation which has had top Georgia Republicans including the current Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger testify. Both of whom refused under massive pressure to “find” eleven thousand seven hundred and eighty votes which was, “One more than we need”. She is also investigating what the Trump operation admitted was a “fake elector scheme”. Ms. Willis has subpoenaed Trump allies such as Rudi Giuliani and Lindsey Graham, Trump’s chief side kick de luxe. Where this goes is not nearly as important as it was a few days ago now that Garland is deep into the prosecution.

The New York Attorney General Letitia James has remained steadfast in smashing the Trump Organization tax embezzlement and fraudulent valuations of his properties depending on whether to pay taxes or obtaining loans. She has won challenge after challenge and Trump and his children have to sit for depositions which were postponed to mourn for the death of Trump’s first wife Ivana. This can hit in the arena he cares for most - his pocket. New York generally is where he had to pay a twenty - five million dollar fine for his “fake” University and close down his Charitable Foundation and pay a two million dollar penalty. 

Then there is the usual business as usual for Trump as has been for the more than four thousand five hundred litigations that he has been party too these last fifty years making a total mockery of the US justice system. So besides the rape defamation, the innumerable civil suits some are involving police officers that were victims of the January 6 insurrection form part of his unenviable portfolio. Then his new Public Company in the making, “Truth Social” is in front of a Grand Jury. As they used to say at the old vaudeville fairs - “Every shot a coconut”.

The House January 6 Hearing Committee

Ending their first series of tightly packed made for TV hearings the January 6 Committee are producing a daily diet of revelations as they continue full tilt with their in camera depositions and fact finding. Trump’s speech on January 7 with all its omissions, under threat of being chucked out by his cabinet, was annotated by comments from Ivanka, Jared and the laconic irritated Pat Cippolone whose claims of executive privilege were tolerated as he provided crucial evidence. 

Then the Trump lie, which he repeated and was repeated on Fox friend Hannity’s nightly show no less than forty three times, that he commissioned ten thousand National Guards for January 6 but it was Speaker Pelosi’s fault that weren’t deployed, was bust wide open when his Defense Secretary’s closed deposition was released for the world to see that he did no such thing. The revelation was all that sensational because Secretary Miller, supposedly a member of “Team Normal” lied on Fox News that Trump had done so!

The elimination of Secret Service text messages and other textsis yet another focus that is being scrutinized. The Trump head of the Department of Investigations is being accused of a cover up.

Apparently after Cassidy’s testimony the leads and offers just poured in. So inundated was the Committee that they promised another mini series in September. Before the “GOP” cry fowl that it will impinge on the midterms they need reminding how they unashamedly smeared Hillary Clinton with bogus investigations of her e mail server and the Benghazi Ambassador raid.

The fact that the Committee are now cooperating with the Department of Justice instead of wailing at the latter’s alleged inaction adds to their enormous gravitas.

Merrick Garland Now

So far the Department of Justice is batting on thousand convictions, admittedly mainly on the misled cavalry of Trump’s first battalion, “fighting like hell”. However the charges have included seditious conspiracy which are notoriously difficult to prove. The professionalism exhibited as well as attention to detail is spectacular. The polished non political prosecution of Steve Bannon for contempt of the subpoena of the Hearing Committee was a clinical execution of justice. Garland has acted already towards Jeffery Clark who Trump wanted to install as Head of Justice and John Eastman, Trump’s outside lawyer, who dreamed the scheme for Mike Pence to override eighty - one million voters. Rudi Giuliani the lead outside lawyer has already been raided. Garland has the cooperation of Kenneth Klowouski, the lawyer Clark suddenly appointed to draft the bogus letter that Clark wanted to send out to Secretaries of State claiming that the Department of Justice had found corruption in their elections. Klowouski was recommended by John Eastman. There are also links to Justice Clarence Thomas’s wife Ginni and Charles Koch one of the major sources of dark money.

The fact that Merrick Garland has applied his legal judicial mind in prosecuting should send shivers down anyone who is in his sights. He would never have gone public the same day that  Pence’s “normal team” had delivered evidence in the Grand Jury investigation if he wasn’t well into his probe of the whole conspiracy. The next day Cassidy Hutchinson’s cooperation   was leaked with all the others. 

Garland has a cast of characters that could turn on Trump from Eastman, Giuliani, Powell and the other teams of lawyers that face long terms of imprisonment. There are persistent rumors that Mark Meadows Trump’s Chief of Staff is cooperating with Garland. That latter fact would make the decision not to prosecute him for contempt of his subpoena to the January 6 Committee.

McConnell and McCarthy are relying on the disaster that is Biden, with nine percent inflation, to win the midterms.

BIden and the Democrats

Jay H. Ell blogged on the Democrats chances on July 24 and there has been major movement since then. Biden’s approval figures are irrelevant at this stage. If push comes to shove he won’t stand In 2024. 

The last move by Manchin who is backing Biden’s Build Back Better agenda in the form of an inflation buster, to coin a phrase, is a game changer. This involves tax of the rich and a minimum of fifteen percent of tax on companies. In addition the bill includes no increasing insurance payments for Obamacare and a provision that will ensure that drug prices will not increase as a Bush provision that Medicare cannot bid for prices from pharmaceutical companies is being axed. There is a massive climate control component in the seven hundred billion Bill. Biden and Schumer’s patience with Manchin has paid off. So the angry youth will think schlepping out to vote is worth it.

Biden has successfully navigated the Ukrainian crisis without involving America in the third world war. Besides Zelensky turning around the ground war, the coalition is holding, the Russian economy is in a state of collapse. He also stood firm in his conversation with China’s Xi Ping.

The Democrats still have the abortion issues and guns from the activist Supreme Court. With the daily disasters climate change is finally gaining traction. Jay H. Ell has to believe that not only will they win the Senate in November the House may now just be that little more in play.

The Republicans 2022 and 2024

The Republican leadership response has been to stick with Trump. They have done nothing to extricate themselves from the chaos that is unfolding before their eyes. They are standing around waiting for Godot. Every candidate is going to be faced with whether they support an indicted leader or not. As matters stand Trump will still will the nomination in 2024. If he does Jay H. Ell believes that Liz Cheney will stand as an Independent to give the fifteen percent or so Reagan Republicans a conscience vote so as to allow whoever is the Democratic nominee to win, or more to the point Trump lose

If unemployment stays at three and a half percent and wages increase McConnell will have a tough time of it. The line is now that Biden is senile and should be removed via the Twentieth Amendment. They are obviously projecting the fact that Trump’s Cabinet was discussing the Amendment as Fox’s Hannity had warned and the January 6 Committee has heard evidence thereof.

THE END OF THE DAY

It is finally getting near the end of the day…. A day without dinner for Trump who will go down saying he won his third election a row.