Within the space of a week, October 27 and November 3, 2026 two elections are scheduled, one in Israel and the other in America. The outcomes of these events are considered inflection points for which type of political system will operate in their respective countries. In more ways than one the results of each will impact the other. Both Trump and Netanyahu would like to continue on their authoritarian agendas while their opponents would like to reverse course.
In America some Republican influencers are attacking Trump for his never ending war with Iran, having been allegedly persuaded on its necessity by Netanyahu and "Jewish money". (Blog:"It's Always The Jews"). In Israel there are stark divisions between the center and the right. The religious, small extreme right wing as well as the Arab parties add variables as to the outcome of the election. The central debate in Israel is responsibility for the breakdown in intelligence that allowed October 7, 2023 and the management of the subsequent ongoing wars. Both incumbent governments face the dissatisfaction of the economic consequences of the war. Netanyahu has added issues, his management of the hostage crisis, a 100 deaths and thousands injured while certain parts of Israel are still uninhabitable.
The good news, for what the polls are worth, is that Gadi Eisenkot a former Israeli Chief of Staff has an excellent shot at ousting the governing Israeli coalition and Trump faces a gigantic loss in the November midterms. Both the American and Israeli leaders are charismatic populists who have dominated politics in their respective countries, the latter for three decades and Trump for one. Both are desperate to retain power fearing the investigative aftermath of their regimes. While every move Netanyahu makes now will be questioned by the pundits as to how it plays out in the polls especially as he is involved in multi- front wars. Trump on the other hand is using every means possible to impact the process of the election itself.
THE SURROUND AROUND THE ELECTIONS
The Democratic Party would heave a sigh of relief should Netanyahu be ousted from leadership as there is tension from those who are against America’s support for Israel, including a few who are antisemitic as well, led by an influencer Hasan Piker. In fact a default position of the Democratic Party at the moment is against providing Israel with offensive weaponry and abolishing their annual subsidy. (Blog: The Democratic Tea Party ).
The Republicans too have a huge problem as their biggest influencer, antisemitic Tucker Carlson is a key supporter of Vice President Vance, the odds on favorite to be The Republican nominee for President in 2028. (Blog: Carlson’s Protocols of Chabad). Then there is Elon Musk, the Republican’s largest donor. Recently when asked on “X” his social media platform, “Are Jews White?”, he went into a bizarre discussion about genetics which basically boiled down to“… I know a Jew when I see one”. (Regardless of what he may say!).
Trump endorsing Netanyahu in the election, as bizarre as this new normal sounds, would have an impact in solidifying the current regime’s coalition. It is the current wisdom that Trump has had enough of his Israeli counterpart even screaming at him, “All the Jews hate you”. There is always a possibility if he feels that Bibi will be victorious that he will wade in and take the credit. Trump answers to nobody and cares naught about the impact of his narcissistic behavior on his Party.
It is all very complicated and there is a disconnect between the view of the Israelis and 70 percent of American Jews who publicly disapprove of the Israeli regime let alone defend them. There is far more consensus on the right of Israel to exist as a State. The Western democratic world’s stance on the situation is a two state solution. The latter is off the radar for the Israelis following a succession of failed peace talks interspersed by Hamas and Hezbollah attacks on Israel at the behest of Iran. The final nail in the coffin of serious talks between the two parties on a two State solution came when Mahmoud Abbas rejected Ehud Olmert’s generous offer in 2008. More significantly the barbaric attack from Gaza by Hamas on October 7,1923 put to rest politically the two state solution for the foreseeable future.
Gaza, as an economically viable state was unilaterally handed over to the Palestinians by Prime Minster Sharon in 2005 with Settlers being dragged out by the Israeli Defense Force. Ever since Hamas was elected as the Government in 2007 there have been no further elections. There has been internal strife and a highly repressive regime. At the moment there is a stalemate in peace talks between Israel and Hamas.
There is also the incongruence of those that offer a solution that gives “The River to the See” to the Palestinians. Where will 8 million Jews go? In 1938 at the Evian Conference convened cynically by Franklin Roosevelt 32 countries offered no help to what was obviously to follow in Europe. Other than the Dominican Republic taking in about 1000 Jews the remainder were left to the tender mercies of Hitler initially and Stalin subsequently. In addition it is acknowledged that in the 1948 war initiated by the Arab nations following the establishment of partition by the United Nations, 800,000 Palestinians were either displaced, left voluntarily or were forced out. Exactly the same number of Jews were expelled from Arab countries.
It also has to be realized that where were Jews supposed to go post WW11? There was never a time when there weren't Jews in Israel. With the pogroms, Nazism and Stalinism they went to Israel in their thousands.Where were over a million Russian "refuseniks" supposed to emigrate. The Balfour Declaration and the subsequent UNO partition provided an answer.
ANTISEMITISM, ZIONISM, NETANYAHU AND AFFRONTS AGAINST HUMANITY
By now it is patently obvious that the overwhelming number of attacks on Zionism, a Jewish State, are either coupled directly or indirectly with antisemitism. It is also patently clear that the Government of Israel under the cabal of Bibi Netanyahu is a disgrace - much like the Administration of America under Trump, and for that matter Putin’s Russia and the Ayatollah’s Iran regime. All are an affront to humanity. However there is no routine protesting and exhibitions of violence around places of worship of Christian Evangelicals, the Russian Orthodox or Shia Muslims. While October 7, 2023 and the conduct of the subsequent war will be the subject of impartial Commissions if Netanyahu is not unseated, the subject of Settler terrorism towards Palestinians on the West Bank and an attempt to drive them out will remain a festering sore on the Jewish psyche both in Israel and in the Diaspora.
The Settlers' violence is quantitatively far less than the murders of tens of thousand protestors in the streets, less than the deportation of hundreds of thousands in shackles of undocumented persons to dangerous countries while there have been scores of deaths in detention camps, and less than the three year systematic bombing of citizens and civilian structures. Neverless Israel and by association the Jews in the diaspora are the central focus of world attention. It is what it is and qualitatively the attempt to displace and victimize the West Bank Palestinians fits the rubric. It is absolutely indefensible.
So far Netanyahu has not given very much more than lip service in stopping criminal Settlers even in the face of Trump’s Government representatives registering strong protests. The American Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee visited Palestinian victims last week demonstrating American support.
But back to the Israeli elections.
THE POLLS AND ISRAELI ELECTIONS
The Israeli parliament is called The Knesset. It has a 120 members and elections and parties are based on the set up in original democratic Zionist Council. There are no geographical constituencies as each party draws up a list of candidates and depending on the percentage of votes they obtain representatives are allotted. At the moment the polls show Eisenkot’s Yashari Party ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud by one or two seats. They both have coalitions adding up to 53 seats each. This is 8 short of the 61 needed to form a majority government.
In a breakthrough event the Arab Party Ra’am have placed a Jewish Israeli Yoav Sagolovich as number two on their list. They are polled at 5 seats. Sagolovich is a former police chief who brought down the murder rate in the Arab residential areas. He is highly respected in that community. Ra’am’s decision gives the go ahead for the Joint Arab List, 9 seats, to look more positively at the current opposition to the Likud Government.
Now as matters stand at the moment the 14 Arab members would not join the coalition nor would all of Eisenkot’s partners tolerate it but if Eisenkot has the most elected members he would be called upon to form the Government. The Arab parties would not oppose his Government and/or they would certainly not vote for a Netanyahu Government. So it seems highly unlikely that Netanyahu will be Prime Minister again. At best he can hope for is another election where circumstances can alter the electoral map.
The above of course is subject to change and the current Prime Minister is desperate. Besides his legal problems his legacy is at grave risk if an independent commission into October 7 and the subsequent conduct of the war apportions responsibility to him. His wife Sara went onto a supportive TV Channel and implied that Yair Golan, the then Deputy Chief of Staff, knew about the Hamas raid and didn’t inform the Prime Minister! Golan who currently is head of The Democratic Party and a supporter of Eisenkot is considered the hero of that day, rushing to the invasion and rescuing a number of young Israelis from the marauding Hamas.
Netanyahu’s sycophantic staff maintain that if the Prime Minister would have been woken earlier he would have saved the day! Meanwhile it took him two hours to leave his residence while he waited another hour to contact the Chief of Staff. In fact he had been warned twice. First a general warning by his own intelligence that his attempt to subvert the Judicial system was creating such protests that the country was weakened and susceptible to an attack. Only recently has it been known that days before October 7 he had been "urgently" tipped off by the head of the UAE that Hamas leader, Yawar Sinwar, was preparing a "massive attack".
Sara Netanyahu isn’t the only other member of the family that is an election issue. Their son Yair, an Army Reservist, was in a $5,000 a month apartment in Miami with security for the duration of the war. This is stark contrast to 4 star General, Eisenkot, who lost a son and two nephews in the combat against Hamas and Hezbollah.
There is also one other wrinkle. Netanyahu’s 53 coalition is dependent on two small right wing parties getting the required 3.25 percent of votes to get representation at all. The Religious Zionist Party led by Minister Smotrich which was on its deathbed has been joined by a right wing fanatic Moshe Feiglin who was so off the charts that Netanyahu had him thrown out of Likud. There is another fringe right wing group led by Brigadier General Winter who too is far right of Netanyahu. His answer to the Gaza Palestinians is “migration” like some others on the right wing slate including the aforementioned Feiglin. Even if Netanyahu had a shot he would have to weld this crowd together.
Eisenkot is playing his cards closely to the chest. He wisely claims Israel’s threat is its own internal divisions rather than Iran and its proxies. His positive assets include trust, authenticity, his resume in the Israeli Defense Force and his ability to form relationships. Unlike Netanyahu, who comes from Israeli “aristocracy”, Eisenkot is a first generation Israeli of a poor family who emigrated from Morocco.
The former Chief of Staff has only been in politics a few years. He joined Netanyahu’s cabinet in a Government of Unity following the October 7, 2023 slaughter. His credibility is only enhanced by the fact that he left in June 2024. As the leader of a newly formed party Yashari, he surprised the pundits by rapidly becoming the obvious choice to replace Netanyahu.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
For the record there is to a third set of elections this year - on the West Bank. This is for the Legislative Assembly. The Presidential elections are also scheduled for next year. These are the first plebiscites since around 2005 when Mahmoud Abbas was elected President. The outcome of these will also play a role in what follows in the region.
There is plenty of blame to go around for the current Israeli/Palestinian crisis. The Palestinian citizens have been manipulated by their own terrorists and have been used as pawns by the other Arab nations and Iran with about as much help as The Jews received in Europe and Russia the past century.
Israel is experiencing a brain drain. In the past three years nearly 1400 doctors have “been away” for over a year.
The world wide outbreak of antisemitism more often than not centers around what happens in Israel. Netanyahu has offered naught for comfort. Ironically the Arab citizens of Israel may be poised to play a role in the slow process of healing a nation that, beyond expectation has succeeded militarily, economically and in the scientific and technology fields. It now needs to face reality and take a lesson from it's own Torah, "You shall not abhor an Egyptian as you were a stranger in his land".
Meanwhile the Diaspora Jews wait in Angst.
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