BIDEN v TRUMP IS WHAT THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE ABOUT

 

Everything points to a rerun of the 2020 Presidential election in 2024. Biden has led the Democratic Party to a historic midterm performance in spite of rising costs and inflation. This has consolidated his support within his party should he elect to run. Meanwhile Trump’s core base will not budge as a result of the devastating exposures of his illegal behavior even if these result in prosecutions and convictions. 

The fact that Kevin McCarthy, the leader of the Republican majority in the House has swallowed the Kool-Aid and regards Trump's support as essential to his election as Speaker illustrates the MAGA boss's hold over the “GOP”. All the January 6 dramatic revelations will do is reinforce Trump’s and his cult’s belief in their victimhood. Moreover the majority of the “GOP” legislators will not cut him loose because they cannot win without his base. So once again, in 2024, in one way or another, it will be Trump v Biden, (or their surrogates), as it was in 2020 and the midterms. Jay H. Ell will outline what has led him to this conclusion. 

ZELENSKY’S VISIT TELLS IT ALL

If any historical event `illustrates the difference between Trump and Biden it is the Ukrainian - Russian conflict and the attitudes of Trump and Biden towards Russia’s Putin and Ukraine’s Zelensky. Trump supported Putin over his own American Intelligence personnel. He refused to release Congress voted funds to Ukraine unless Zelensky provided dirt on the Bidens leading to his first impeachment. Biden’s role has been central to Zelensky’s success galvanizing NATO support for him.  

Just in case anyone has any doubt where the Trump mob stand on Zelensky’s visit to the USA. Donald J. Trump Jnr tweeted that Zelensky was, “Basically an ungrateful international welfare queen”. For those who are not aware of the smear that Trump Jnr was alluding too, it was a depiction by Ronald Reagan, of those who were recipients of the Democratic Party’s welfare programs as being crooked freeloaders. 

The irony is that baby Don’s freeloading dad has been exposed as a grifter and a tax cheat, who had his Charitable Foundation closed down because he spent other people’s donations for his own account and his University shut down after settling twenty -five million dollars to the students he defrauded. 

There is little doubt that the Majorie Taylor Greene’s of the world agree with the Trump position and will make Kevin McCarthy’s position even more impossible much to the Democrats delight. The Freedom Caucus Squad made their feelings known at Zelensky’s speech to the Joint Congressional Hearing by literally sitting on their hands as their colleagues of both parties gave repeated and prolonged standing ovations.

For anyone with any political savvy the fact that the Republican leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell was a proud participant of the Zelensky visit while McCarthy was nowhere to be seen gives some indication that the “GOP” Legislators are not all one happy family.

While foreign policy is rarely central to USA elections the fact that the Trump “GOP” and its main barrel organ FOX NEWS  are against foreign aid for Ukraine does not help their cause. Zelensky has an approval rating of seventy - two percent in the USA and was TiME’s Person the Year.

THE MIDTERMS - BIDEN’S LEADERSHIP 

Jay H. Ell maintained that the underlying narrative for the 2022 midterms was Trump versus Biden. (BLOG: “The Midterms? They Are About Trump and Biden Stupid”, September 8, 2022). 

Biden, in spite of criticism within in the Democratic Party. (DP), made it clear that the 2022 midterm election represented a “Fork in the road” in the future of America.  To reinforce the enormity of the historical significance of the election, the Forty Sixth President chose as the venue for his election message, Independence Hall, Pennsylvania, where the original American Constitution was hammered out. 

Biden coupled his appeal with support for a woman’s rights to an abortion, the removal of which the “GOP’ had engineered. The abrogation of this right had been as a result of the decision by the Supreme Court to axe it. Trump had promised that his Supreme Court nominees would deliver this outcome. Moreover Justice Thomas, whose wife was active in the movement to “Stop the Steal”, has threatened LGBT rights and a couple’s right to contraception. 

Biden had been proved right with his message, (BLOGS, “USA Midterms: ‘We The People’ Deliver” and “Georgia Senate Run Off - For All The Marbles”, November 20 and December 1, 2022 respectively). The red wave that was predicted by the “GOP” and the media barely produced a trickle. In so doing Biden and the DP defied history as the average loss of the Party that occupies the WhiteHouse is twenty - six House seats as well as Senate losses. This electoral performance was in spite of the fact that the “GOP” made it more difficult for African Americans to vote and for Democrats to cast votes in their traditional way, prior to the actual election day. 

THE “GOP” LEGISLATORS UNFASED BY REVELATIONS ON TRUMP

The question facing the “GOP” Legislative leaders was whether or not they would recognize that Trump was the antithesis of every value their Party once supported or would they continue on the path initiated by Nixon to try and establish America as a White Autocracy. (BLOG: “Genuine GOP Leaders Please Stand Up - How The Hell Did We Get Here”, December 10, 2022). 

The verdict on the “GOP’s” central dilemma Is out. If we take, for example, the response of the “GOP’ members on the Ways and Means Committee in relation to the release of Trump’s taxes, they are loathe to cross the leader of their Party. Ironically the last President to try not to share his tax returns was President Nixon whom Jay H. Ell credits with setting the “GOP” on the path to negating the GOP’S historical mandate. Nixon eventually recanted and produced his tax reports. He was anxious to show the American public, “That their President was not a crook”. Trump and his Party have not such a lofty ideal. 

To further add to the “GOP” Legislators slavish commitment to Trump, “GOP” House Leader McCarthy has promised that his agenda for the next two years will be to attack the investigators of the Trump coup attempt. McCarthy will also take up Trump’s original quest to Zelensky and investigate Hunter Biden. While “GOP” Senate Leader McConnell has responded that, “The entire nation knows who is responsible for that day. I don’t have any immediate observations”. He refuses to answer whether or not he would  back Trump if he was the “GOP” nominee for 2024.

The question still remains as to what the evidence is as to where the American voter stands at the moment and where they might be in 2024.

BIDEN AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S CHANCES OF BEING IN POWER IN 2024

It is fair comment that in 2022 the “GOP” had everything in their favor yet they performed way below expectation. This was largely because the party is splintered. Even their attempt to maintain a united front in Georgia was shattered by Trump having dinner with antisemites and racists. 

High inflation and poor economy were supposedly the priority  for GOP voters for 2022 Midterms. While traditionally these are the factors that are central to decision making in elections, cultural issues, “stop the steal, democracy and a woman’s rights were crucial in 2022. The shadows of Trump and Biden thus overhung the proceedings. The Trump base was concerned with the “stolen election” of their cult leader. In the contested electoral contests these election deniers faired poorly, boding badly for Trump’s 2024 chances 

Biden and the DP have plenty to look forward prior to 2024. At the time of writing inflation has begun to recede, gas prices are down almost to precovid levels and unemployment is at record lows. The threat of a recession has to be outweighed by the impact that the Biden economic stimuli will have on senior voters who have traditionally been the preserve of the “GOP”. The seniors will receive an dight percent increase in their social security checks, a marked decrease in their Medicare payments, decreases generally in their copays for medicines as Medicare negotiate prices and a cap on the price of insulin. In addition their out of pocket medical expenses will be cut to two thousand five hundred dollars. 

Build Back Better and Infrastructure and Jobs Legislation.

A reduction of health care costs is in Biden’s “Build Back Better” legislation which is directed at improving standards of living of the middle class. The Act provides extensive home care support, expands opportunities for post school education as well as providing substantial funds for combating climate change. The Infrastructure and Jobs legislation which gained bipartisan support will provide an estimated two million jobs a year and the impact will begin to be felt in the next two years. It is aimed at creating Union Jobs as does the Build Back Better legislation. 

It is well recognized that the infrastructure such as roads, bridges, electric grids are in need of upgrade and or repair. Also there is provision to improve and increase the transport service from rail to buses and provide high speed internet for the whole country. Inroads will be made to install facilities to provide electricity stations for cars and to electrify buses.  Water purification has been a problem in certain areas and will be addressed as will be the devastation brought about by climate change.  

Every sector of the population will be impacted by these programs which will be largely funded by the abolishing of tax cuts for the rich which were introduced by the Trump administration. 

There is little doubt that the impact of these projects will ameliorate any setbacks produced by the pullback in the economy and the increase in interest rates thereby blunt the thrust of the “GOP” to run against a Democratic Presidency. The impact will be on all voting sectors. 

The Prospects for the Swing States in 2024 with 2022 Midterms as a pointer

As a background to Biden’s and Trump’s approach to the 2022midterms they both mimicked their 2020 Presidential election scenarios. Biden was low key holding rallies in a few States and steering clear of any state where he might be a handicap to the DP Candidates. Trump was more than hands on. He dominated a host of Primary Races and in the subsequent closely contested midterm contests his candidates were literally thrashed. In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia his much vaunted candidates were beaten. In fact in the eight key races in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona the “GOP” only won two, the incumbent Senator in Wisconsin and the Governor in Georgia who led the Republican Office bearers who refused Trump’s efforts to “Find me 7,800 votes).

The DP improved on Biden’s numbers in 2020 with the exception of Nevada where there were still much that could encourage the Party for 2024. If the demographics of the voters in 2022 are analyzed the reasons for Biden and a  positive DP outcome in 2024 become evident. 

VOTERS FOR 2024 SLICED AND DICED

The probability of senior citizens viewing Biden and the DP more favorably have already been discussed above. There is also an increase in benefits for the Veterans of various wars who have been struggling to obtain health care for problems such as exposure to Agent Orange, Burn Pits and other toxic substances. The act allows survivors and their families to claim. 

The youth voted in numbers greater than any other midterm In history. Their number one issue was abortion which as an issue will not go away in the next two years. The threat is also to contraception usage. The youth vote was up to thirty points higher for the DP in the swing states. In addition even in “GOP” controlled states, and the rural entities, the youth voted at least sixty to forty percent in favor of the DP. 

Fifty - two percent of the voters were women and they represented fifty - five percent of those that cast ballots. The DP were the beneficiaries of this over representation. Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution remarked that, “Analysts and pollsters underestimated the impact of abortion rights in driving the vote.”. Jim Messina, former Deputy Chief Of Staff in Obama Administration claimed that, “Once again it is the women who saved us”. It appears that the former suburban Republican woman voter has permanently moved across the aisle. 

The Independent vote which is now is the key constituency with a third of registered electorate broke for the Democrats. This obviously played a crucial role in the swing states. Examples include,  Arizona, (55 - 45). Nevada, (48 - 45), Georgia, (53 - 47), New Hampshire, (54 - 46) and Pennsylvania, (58 - 42).

The Hispanic vote which the “GOP” believed they were winning over, other than in Florida  was still staunchly Democratic. According to NBC in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, Latinos have stuck with Democrats at a time when the Latino population growth has exploded. In Nevada there is no doubt that the Latinos delivered as sixty - two percent voted for the DP incumbent. There is myth that the Latinos are anti abortion. A Lake Research Project showed that seventy - four percent of Latino registered voters supported a woman’s right to exercise her own preference.. 

The trend is undoubtedly towards the DP. 

BIDEN v TRUMP 2024

Whether or not Trump is the nominee, whether or not he is indicted and or convicted, he will have still have a constituency that will make or break any “GOP” nominee. His following may be reduced but will still be twenty - five to thirty percent of the electorate. He will either win the “GOP” nomination if the Primary field is large, stand as an Independent candidate or tell his cult followers to boycott the election. 

One fact is for sure with all the exposes from the January 6 Committee as well as the exposure of his taxes will result in the Independents firming their support for Biden and the DP.

While the majority of the Democrats indicate they would prefer another candidate this is unlikely to happen as the Legislators want Biden's stewardship. Even the Leader of the Progressive Caucus of the Democratic Party in the House, Pramila Jaypal has pledged support. She maintained that Biden wasn’t even her second choice in 2020. The Progressive Caucus has over a hundred members.. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It will be a while before America is sanitized from Trump and the worst he brought out in America. 

For those who don’t believe that leadership matters write a short essay on the impact of Putin, Xi Jinping, Trump, Zelensky and Biden on the course of history. 

Biden’s genius of inviting Zelensky to America at this time was for the objective of gaining support for USA involvement in the war against Russia and to reinforce the values that America has stood for. 

Finally, Biden has restored America’s leadership in the world. His management of the Ukrainian war and the uniting of NATO members as well as increasing their membership has been masterly. "America is back" as he  proudly announced. The good news is they are probably back for at least six more years.

Merrick Garland is unlikely to prosecute Trump for any crime that would result in him not being able to run for office. The conservative jurist would probably consider that as intervening in the political process. 

GENUINE GOP LEGISLATORS PLEASE STAND UP: - HOW THE HELL DID WE GET HERE?

A desperate, but never to be underestimated Trump, operating from his Mar - a - Lago bunker, with yet another election rejection in red Georgia while the legal noose closes in on him, has become becomes more and more unhinged. He is embracing his foot soldiers who sacrificed their freedom for his wild fantasy of taking over America by force while calling for the suspension of the American Constitution to put him back in the White House! 

All this would be good and well if Trump was the leader of a fringe group but he is the leader of one of the two major political parties of America, the so called Republican Party, (GOP), - the once proud Party of Abraham Lincoln. The latter have morphed into the “Make America Great Again, (MAGA) and The America First Party. The last named having the same title as the celebrity pilot Charles Lindbergh, the friend of Hitler, gave to his Nazi movement in the 1940's.  

Jay H. Ell now puts the Grand Old Party in apostrophes, as the “GOP”, as the Grand Old Party no longer stands for the principles of Lincoln. Nor do they honor the integrity of the constitution,  openness to immigrants and fiscal responsibility that were their landmark principles. Nor are its fiscal modern day conservatism and limited Government much in evidence. All that remains is their outmoded social dogmas so as to ensure the support of the Evangelical Christians.

The fact that in the midterms Trump’s “GOP” under performed and Trump’s totalitarian response to the outcome has been ignored, almost totally, by those still in the "GOP" including the National Committee, bodes badly for the MAGA Party and the country. 

Newt Gingrich one of the original 1990's Republican revolutionaries and a former Speaker of the House, stated that the significance of what Biden had achieved had been completely unappreciated by all including the “GOP”. Gingrich warned that Biden has obliterated the "GOP”. He amazingly has joined the Liz Cheneys and Adam Krizingers of this world who have taken a principled stance against the constitutional hooliganism of their former colleagues. 

Two questions arise out of these surreal circumstances - How the hell did the Grand Old Party become the vehicle for Trump totalitarianism and will any of the now "MAGA GOP” majority stand up to the values that the Party once espoused? 

WHERE THE COUNTRY IS NOW

The reality is that that the majority of the country have moved away from Trump. As outlined in the Blog November 20, 2022 “USA 2022 midterms, “We The People Deliver”, election denial hardly raised a whimper. The overwhelming majority of Trump endorsed candidates in the contested seats lost. The leaders of Trump’s civilian army have been locked up, some as traitors to the American constitution.

 So nobody cares about Trumpism except the Legislative leaders of the "GOP”. The masses aren’t rising up as the investigation into Trump proceeds apace and the Attorney General reassures all that anyone involved in the attempted coup will be prosecuted. The judiciary, with a few glaring exceptions, are having no truck with the usual Trump tactic of running out the clock. So while the leader of the “GOP” in the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, and the right wing gang are backing the former President and all his MAGA, AMERICA FIRST dross, they are out of sync with the vast majority of Americans.

 

So McCarthy and the “GOP” legislators provide the leadership of the MAGA movement. Leaders matter. There would have been no holocaust without Hitler. Of course there is collective responsibility for those who go along for the ride as brilliantly researched By Daniel Goldhagen in his best seller “Hitler’s Willing Executioners - Ordinary Citizens and the Holocaust”. The Iranian and Chinese mass protests may effect some change in policy but they are leaderless and the outcome cannot be change in regime. 

HOW THE HELL DID WE GET HERE?

It is fair argument that throughout America’s two and a half Century History there has been prejudice against the “other”. In fact the Declaration of Independence and Constitution were aspirational. Right up to the twentieth Century it was the Democrats, (DP), mainly from the South that were the protagonists of segregation. This state of affairs lasted right up to the middle of the twentieth Century. 

After a period of “Reconstruction”, following the emancipation of slaves and the Civil war, over the objections and veto of President Johnson, the Republican Legislators enshrined the rights of the “Negros”. This was fought bitterly and negated by the DP Southern States. The advances of the "Negro" spawned the formation of the infamous Klu Klux Klan, (KKK), who were responsible for a hundred and fifty years of lynchings and harassment and discrimination right into the twentieth century. 

Although the KKK became inactive at the time of the Great Depression in the 1930’’s, segregation and the impossibility of the “Negro” to vote was endemic in the Southern Democratic States until the Civil Rights Movements in the 1950 and 1960's.

In the 1930’s right through WWII twenty three members of Congress were paid by the Nazi Party to thwart Roosevelt from entering the war. Bishop Cochran had a radio following of a fifth of the country’s population to whom he spewed out Fascist propaganda. This forgotten episode of history was vividly portrayed in Rachel Maddow’s podcast “DUAL”. Some historians claim that this was the beginning of the Republican Party’s modern day era of discrimination. There were a only a few members of the DP amongst this group. Also at Republican Party Conventions there was solid support for this position.

JAY H. ELL BELIEVES THE MODERN DAY REPUBLICAN ANTIPATHY TO BLACK VOTERS BEGAN WITH NIXON

Jay. H. Ell believes the MAGA of today was conceived in the sixties under the tutelage of President Nixon. President Lyndon Johnson, who preceded Nixon, knew that by pushing the Civil Rights Legislation that the DP legislators from the South weren’t going to buy in. In 1965 the percentage of whites in America  was eighty - four percent. Johnson was proved right. Nixon started on his Southern Strategy which was to herald a new Republican era as it morphed into the “GOP” of the nineties. 

Jay H. Ell has a personal anecdote about the state of the Republican Leadership in the Senate prior to the Nixon era. As a student leader in 1964 he was the guest of Senator Hugh Scott the future Republican Minority leader. Senator Scott told him that he and colleagues felt a duty to support Johnson on Civil Rights which needed a two thirds majority in the Senate to pass. (At the time of the actual vote the legendary Everett Dirksen was the Republican Minority Leader of the Senate). The filibuster was engineered by the Southern Democrats. The Senate debated for sixty days. The final vote that broke the filibuster was seventy - one to twenty nine. The two thirds majority would never have been attained without the Republicans support. Senator Scott was subsequently one of the three Republican leaders that descended upon Nixon and informed him that should he resign as the Senate would impeach him. By then Nixon had already implemented his Southern Strategy.

Nixon’s Southern Strategy was to unashamedly support the racism in the South to court the white votes that had formerly gone to the DP and would sustain the Republican Party for decades to come finally ending in Trump. (But stick around that comes later). In Nixon’s 1968 campaign he used code language and dog whistles for the Southern Democratic vote. He signaled in that campaign that he would ease pressure in the South on segregation. He won the support of Southern Democrat Strom Thurmond who began a procession of Southern DP legislative members joinIng the Republicans.

In the 1968 election an unsuccessful third candidate George Wallace an out an out bigot ran as well. Nixon courted those votes following the 1968 election. His adviser Kevin Phillips wrote that Nixon had to win over the Wallace voter because, “The negroes were beginning to seize control over the national Democratic Party in some Black Belt areas”. The Nixon administration went to court to slow down school integration.  

THE REPUBLICANS CONTINUED THEIR BELITTLING OF THE AFRICAN AMERICAN AFTER NIXON

In the years from 1968 to 1992 Republicans occupied the White House for eighteen of twenty - two years. Reagan, (1980 - 1988), who was known mainly for his disastrous trickle down economic policy, also spoke of an African American woman being "The Queen of Social Security" who used fifty names and  other deceptions to obtain a ton of Welfare money. Reagan when challenging Gerald Ford, then the Republican President, for the 1976 Republican nomination, launched an attack on welfare spending, assuming that African Americans were the 

beneficiaries.

Between 1992 to 2000 the moderate DP Clinton won an eight year term to be the followed by the second Bush, H. Dubbaya who had an eight year term till 2008. Put another way between 1968 to 2008 there was only a Democrat in the WhiteHouse for twelve of the forty years. And from 2004 to the present date, 2022, the Republicans only once received the majority of votes in a Presidential election.  

The Gingrich movement to MAGA in the 1990's

Between Nixon and Trump there was the 1990’s revolution started by Pat Buchanan and followed through by Newt Gingrich and supported all the while by Rush Limbaugh who was the George Coughlin of the 1930’s and the forerunner to Murdoch  media in the twenty first century. 

In fact many historians postulate that MAGA began in the 1990’s. That it was kicked off by Pat Buchanan who hobbled daddy Bush by challenging him in a Primary when he was due for his second term. William Buckley the Conservative Intellectual of that era wrote a forty thousand word essay criticizing Buchanan calling him out as an anti semite. George Dubbaya’s daddy was further kneed in the 1992 election by Ros Perot who stood as a third party candidate. However the real mover and shaker of who is considered the forerunner of MAGA was Newt Gingrich.

In his Book, “The New Republican Party”, Julian Zekzer, labelled Newt Gingrich as the person who set the Republican Party on a bitterly partisan and ruthless political path. His brand of warfare worked and in Clinton’s midterm he toppled the Democratic House of  Representatives by winning forty - five seats. He introduced “The Contract of America” very of little which was fulfilled. He shut down Congress, was behind Clinton’s impeachment and polarized the Republican Party into its take no prisoners approach. In the short term his star shone but in 1998 the new Republicans suffered a big loss as Clinton benefitted politically from Gingrich’s excesses, including his impeachment. But the ethically challenged Gingrich had built on the Nixon legacy and helped the rise of MAGA cult of Donald Trump.

THE AMERICAN DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND SO DOES BOTH THE ESTABLISHMENT AND THE RIGHT WING OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY

The Republicans after their second loss to Barack Obama in 2012, when the white population had dropped to sixty three percent, realized they could no longer be a viable party or survive if it was predominantly a white party. They published a report that to survive it needed to attract African Americans and Latinos. What had to have shaken the Republican Establishment there and then was that the rise of Obama to the Presidency was not only by his mobilizing the votes of minorities he had catapulted into the Democratic nomination first by winning rural white Iowa and barely losing in white New Hampshire by a few thousand votes. 

However, the Republican Establishment movement was too little too late, as the right wing of their Party had formed the “The Tea Party". They were against the establishments in both the parties. The Tea Party articulated going back to the glorious past. They were for lower taxes as well as small government spending, code for dropping the welfare programs. They were the hell in with George Dubbaya Bush, (2000 -2008). They hated his immigration reform proposals and his foreign ventures to Iraq and Afghanistan for regime change to a democracy. The Republican McCain in the Presidential election of 2012 had to pick the Tea Party favorite Sarah Palin as his running mate. The Tea Party were the forerunners of the Freedom Party faction that is leading Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy a merry dance.  

And then came Trump and that black swan phenomenon that allowed him to win the 2016 election with about three million less votes than Hilary Clinton and in 2020 to lose against Biden by seven million votes. 

THE BLACK SWAN FACTORS THAT ALLOWED TRUMP TO BECOME PRESIDENT.

Donald Trump, a celebrity for decades, a supposed highly successful businessman and TV personality with incredible skills as aa salesman emerged as a candidate for the Republican nomination for the 2016 elections. Like all salesmen he could instinctively appeal to the feelings of his customers to clinch the deal. Serendipitously for him the anti establishment ground had already been laid by the Tea Party, Gingrich and Nixon's Southern strategy.

In 2016 the full impact of the deindustrialization and outsourcing of jobs had taken hold while the plight of the rural areas had worsened as was so empathetically explained by J. D. Vance. The 2008 economic disaster which robbed many of their homes and savings had not resulted in any accountability of those that profited adding to the anger of the electorate.

 Russia ran a successful cyber campaign in Trump's favor. While the Muller report never proved that he colluded with the Russians, they showed that members of his inner circle met with the Russians and the Russians intervened on Trump’s behalf.

 Trump made a direct appeal to the Evangelical Christians backed their agenda and claimed to be a reformed sinner. He promised them Supreme Court Judges who would axe Roe versus Wade thereby restricting a woman’s right to health care decisions. The other major Evangelical objective was to ensure the stability of Israel. Their rationale for that was not the love of Jews but rather without Israel the Messiah cannot return. In fact if the Jews do not recognize Him when he does arrive they would be killed. Trump claimed he would axe ObamaCare and provide a superior health care plan which he never quite got around to announcing.

The final shoe to fall in this scenario was when a few days before the Presidential election, the megalomaniac James Comey of the FBI announced that he was reinvestigating Hilary Clinton for her emails. This was completely against Justice Department Policy, which has as a standing rule that for sixty days prior to an election, no investigation, indictment, or statement should be made that could impact the outcome. Candidate Clinton stated from that moment her internal polling showed a dramatic turn against her. With Trump's victory the MAGA “GOP” was entrenched.

All this resulted in the black swan outcome that inaugurated President Trump as the forty fifth Commander in Chief of the USA.

.

WILL THE REAL REPUBLICANS PLEASE STAND UP!

So the USA has experienced a triple electoral rejection of Trump, whose election denialism has come down to one county in Arizona which eventually caved under threat of legal action. All that is left of the individuals that scream vote fraud is one former TV anchor in Arizona and Trump has earned the title he despises most - Loser.

However, the Republican leadership in The House of Representatives is backing the MAGA ex President to the hilt. The latter to the extent where Kevin McCarthy the "GOP" leader in the House, responding to Trump’s call to dump the Constitution, stated that he will read the Constitution again. McCarthy and The Freedom Faction Caucus are providing the leadership for the Trumpist electorate now that the lay leaders are locked up and the Murdoch media empire have dumped him. McCarthy is a slave to the Freedom Faction Caucus, (the old Tea Party in disguise). He has pledged to back the most bizarre agenda to get some of their votes for Speaker.

These are some of the promises McCarthy has made to the way out members such as Majorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan who are conspiracy theorists and Qanon believers. He would make them both Chairpeople of key Committees, investigate Nancy Pelosi for failing to secure the Capitol on January 6, investigate the January 6 Committee for crimes they committed during their investigation even grandstanding that they must keep all their paperwork for possible prosecution and hold hearings on Biden's son Hunter a confessed former drug addict with mental problems. They have Hunter's labtop where there are photos of him in the nude and on and on. All this will supposedly will show the country what phonies the DP are and how Biden benefitted from Biden's son's inappropriate ways of earning a living.

Mitch McConnell leader of the "GOP" Minority in the House made a Faustian bargain with the MAGA President whom he regarded as the devil incarnate. He is at odds with McCarthy on Trump but in a way more culpable as he has claims to respectability and used Trump to further his agenda. Furthermore, he has refused to commit to not support the “GOP”candidate in 2024 who may well be Trump with a minority of the “GOP" electorate. 

The only leader of note in the “GOP”, Mitt Romney, their defeated 2012 Presidential candidate against Obama, warned McCarthy that this approach is crazy. However McCarthy is so power hungry that he would change religions if that was necessary!

GET REAL “GOP”

Now Jay. H. Ell believes that the “GOP” legislators need to get real because the following is going to happen one way or another in the next six years:

• Biden will retain the Presidency if he so choses. Otherwise for four of those years another DP candidate will step in: Likewise the Department of Justice, for that period will be in Merrick Garland’s purview or some one else in his ilk; All this garbage about Judicial referrals is just that - so much garbage that it barely needs refutation. 

• Trump will never be President again because if he runs there will be a third party candidate, such as Liz Cheney, to siphon votes away from him and if he is not the nominee he will run as a third party candidate splitting the vote between him and the “GOP” nominee. 

• *Nobody will beat a Democrat even if they don’t pass another piece of legislation as all that money from the Infrastructure and Jobs Act hasn’t hit the American economy yet. It is aimed at all America. Those benefiting most live in the rural areas where construction will provide high paying jobs and broadband and whatever. 

• In Biden’s first term he passed monumental legislation and reversed most of Trump’s Executive orders and just to add one further point he has advocated the rotation of the Democratic Primaries in a fashion to nominate a Presidential candidate that is reflective of the country’s minorities and purple States - hence one two and three are South Carolina, Michigan and Georgia.

So Jay H. Ell appeals to the “GOP” leaders to lead for heaven’s sake  - stand up and repudiate Trump. Get back to the fiscal conservatism and small government. No one believes the baloney that they are the “worker’s party”. They voted against the DP Bill to give the Rail Workers five days sick pay leave a year.   

 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The biggest loser in the Georgia run off was Governor Kemp supposedly a non Trumpist who joined the unholy "GOP" coalition, sharing his ground game that won him the Governorship by two hundred thousand votes, with Walker. The latter being the Trump nominee whom he had shunned in the midterms. The Georgia swing vote defied Kemp. 

The biggest winner was defeated DP Governor candidate Stacey Adams who was responsible for moving red Georgia to just leaning red. Next time round she will be the first Black Female Governor. 

The DP won All The Marbles in the Senate Run off Race in Georgia.

DP Senator Sinema’s move to become an Independent won’t make a jot of difference because that is the way she has behaved for the past four years. If she doesn’t join the DP Caucus like other Independents have, such as Angus King of Maine, she will be a lame duck and have no committee positions. 

In 2021 the percentage of white voters in America had decreased to just under sixty percent. Another reason for true Republicans to stand up now if they feel they have any contribution to make to the national debate.

GEORGIA SENATE RUN OFF - FOR ALL THE MARBLES

There is a great big myth floating around the Southern State of Georgia, namely that it is purple. At this point in time it is not. It is Republican with two Democratic Senators and one is coming up for re election. Biden also surprisingly beat Trump by eleven thousand seven hundred and seventy nine votes in that state as well. So to date it has been pro "GOP" and anti - Trump.

 In the 2020 election Georgia was one of the places Trump rallied night and day. Trump was not very popular to put it kindly and Stacey Adams, a superb Democratic strategist, lost the 2020 Governorship by forty odd thousand votes. Both the Senators were running, against Trump endorsed candidates. 

Well one of those candidates the Reverend Warnock who preaches in the same Southern Baptist Church as the late Martin Luther King, is up again for re -election against a Trump backed candidate on December 6 2022. Although the Democrats have retained the Senate as Jay H. Ell will explain this race is a crucial contest for many reasons, political, legislative and to assess whether the ‘GOP” can get it together to win back the Senate seat. But first let Jay H Ell explain the importance of this run off and why it is for all the marbles.

GEORGIA SENATE RUN OFF - FOR ALL THE MARBLES

The question is why Georgia is so important even though the Democrats control the Senate when it is fifty fifty split with the Vice President Kamala Harris having the casting vote? The issue is one not really appreciated by the majority of citizens. Firstly, there are several bills in the Senate  where one or other of the Democrats are not in sync with the other forty nine members and so legislation cannot move forward. The “GOP’ are desirous too of appearing to stop the midterm momentum on “We the people" towards democracy and a woman’s right to control her life. The latter position which is so unpopular with the whole electorate is one that the “GOP” are stuck with as they ran on it in the midterms. 

Most important is the fact that while a fifty - fifty Senate gives the Democrats who occupy the White House the majority it results in an equal representation on the committees of the Senate. This will have the effect of delaying judicial appointments and has the potential of creating havoc when the Senate takes up investigations that will be axed by McCarthy in the House such as the January 6 Committee investigation. If the Democratic Party, (DP) has fifty - one votes they can constitute committees with a majority of their members thereby eliminating any potential chaos and delay. 

 

That is why this rerun is for all the marbles.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN GEORGIA 2022 AND THE 2020 GENERAL ELECTION THAT  PRECEDED IT

Following the 2020 election where Biden won the State by 11,779 votes, Trump intervened and tried to pressure the "GOP" Georgia State Legislature, Governor Kemp, Secretary Raffensperger and election officials to overturn the election result. It was an ongoing campaign involving his soul mate Senator Lindsey Graham, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Rudi Giuliani and a gaggle of other lawyers. Election workers were harassed and felt their lives were at risk and on and on. 

The Georgia hierarchy from Governor Kemp to the lowest Georgian election official stood firm. Their election results were accurate. All the stories of machines changing votes, suitcases of Biden votes were considered and found to be bogus or to use Trump’s term “Fake News”. 

This attempt has landed Trump in a pile of legal trouble as a fearless prosecutor is the Fulton County of Georgia is conducting a thorough investigation into Trump’s attempt to overturn an election and the Courts have ruled in every instance that all of the participating hobnobs appear for questioning by a Grand Jury must give evidence. In another related case a Federal Judge has maintained that Trump probably committed a crime in Georgia as well as perjury in his presentations to the court. However this is a story for another day in the not too distant future but it makes the point that the Georgian "GOP" establishment rebuffed Trump and stuck to their guns. That decision had a major impact in the 2022 midterm elections for Congress.

In the 2022 midterms Governor Kemp beat Stacey Adams by two hundred thousand votes, that is a one hundred sixty thousand votes more than in 2020. Brad Raffenperger won his Secretary of State position by a similar margin. In fact the Democrats won no State office positions and lost the State legislature soundly. The whole crowd that wouldn’t listen to Trump were re elected by bigger margins.

 The only ray of sunshine for the Democrats was that Senator Warnock in his bid for reelection beat his Republican opponent Herschel Walker by thirty - eight thousand votes. Herschel Walker was backed by Trump and won the Republican Primary. That was enough for two hundred and forty thousand Georgians to split their tickets from voting for every other Republican except Walker. The problem for Warnock is that in beating Walker he did not obtain fifty percent of the vote. Georgian law then requires a run off between the two top leading candidates.

WARNOCK v WALKER RUN OFF - WHY WALKER HAS A CHANCE TO WIN THIS TIME.

Common sense would dictate that Warnock, who really is an outstanding and highly respected candidate, is favorite to win the run off. This time there is a straight forward choice. Herschel Walker’s claim to fame, as one might expect of Trump nominees, is that he is a celebrity. He is considered an American College football legend as one of the great running backs of all time winning the prestigious Heisman trophy for the best player in College Football. All this while playing for the University of Georgia. That is where his relationship begins and ends with Georgia. His registered residence is in Texas. He lied that he graduated. He is against all abortions yet two women have claimed that he paid for their abortions with him being the father. He is for family values but his son claims he is an absent parent and a total phony. He allegedly pointed a gun at a woman’s  head and on and on. Yet he came close enough to Warnock in the 2022 midterms to force a run off.

The difference this time is that all the sick components of the “GOP”, (Blog: USA 2022 MIDTERMS: “WE THE PEOPLE DELIVER” November 20, 2022),  have coalesced behind him. Even Governor Kemp, vilified by Trump, beloved of the Georgian Republicans has backed him. Kemp has even  appeared in adverts for Walker as well as appearances at his rallies. Rick Scott who opposed McConnell as leader for the Senate is down in Georgia canvassing for him as is Senator Lindsey Graham, Donald Trump’s chief acolyte. Mitch McConnell who has criticized the standard of candidates that the Trump sect foisted on the "GOP", has backed good old Herschel. So united they stand the wrecked "GOP" party.

The impact of this “togetherness” is at this stage is uncertain.The most confusing  fact to the Georgian swing voter is the Kemp Georgian establishment “GOP” backing Walker. However Kemp doing one for the team may not do his personal position much good. Already he finds himself having to dissociate himself from Trump, claiming that racists have no place in this country. However Walker is Trump’s nominee the self same Trump that Kemp defied and got him re elected by an increased majority, 

WARNOCK v WALKER RUN OFF - WHY WARNOCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE TO WIN.

Warnock as the incumbent has to start as favorite. The one scientific poll shows him four and half points ahead, just in case anyone still believes in polls. What may well clinch it for the incumbent is that there has been a surge of support for him on the ground. The DP have literally thousands of voluntary and paid workers that are knocking on doors. This has resulted in him outraising Walker, having over fifty million dollars in the bank to Walker’s twenty one million due to small donations.

Two Georgian State Supreme Court decisions will help the Reverend’s cause, The court overruled the “GOP” State Secretary’s attempt to limit early weekend voting to one day allowing Counties the option of two days. Needless to say it was the DP run counties that opened up and on both days one hundred and eighty thousand voted with African Americans, who support the DP nine to one, disproportionately represented. They have stood in lines that stretched around the polls. Then on the Monday and Tuesday over a record three hundred thousand voted on each day thereby thwarting the move of  the “GOP” to limit the DP early vote.

In the same Georgian Supreme Court session that voting was extended, the court ruled that the six weeks Georgian "GOP" ban on abortion could be put in place. In case anyone had forgotten abortion was the main motivator for the young who voted nearly twice as much for the DP. The youth too were  also in the record voting line ups. 

Trump a gift that keeps on giving - Guess who came to Thanksgiving Dinner

Trump can be relied on to produce something that will put off the moderates and swing voters. It is obvious that he is living in his own reality where he must still believe that he can mobilize the base to make him President once again. He had Thanksgiving dinner at Mar a Lago with Kanye West, (Ye), who has lost all his advertisers because of flagrant anti semitism. So “Guess who Came To Dinner” with him? Michael Fuentes a holocaust denier and lead anti semite in America who has advocated the expulsion of Jews from America and hailed the January 6 attack on The Capitol as “awesome”. 

The news of the dinner was met by a stoney silence initially from the leaders of the Georgia “GOP” coalition. The only Republican of note was an almost declared candidate for the “GOP” 2024 nomination for President, Governor Hutchinson of Arkansas. His condemnation was followed days later by Georgia Governor Kemp stating outright on a Tweet, “Georgian Gov. Kemp on Trump’s dinner with antisemites and a white nationalist: ‘Racism antisemitism and denial of the Holocaust have no place in the Republican Party and are completely un American'”. Apparently Kemp forgot he had signed onto Team Trump to take one for the team. Trump responded that he was ashamed he endorsed Kemp in the midterms. So where does that leave the Trump voter?

Former Vice President Pence, another almost declared candidate for the “GOP” nomination. carried on his ridiculous two party race within his own persona, condemning the meeting but reassuring all that Trump was not an anti semite!. However Pence said that Trump should apologize. Florida Senator Marc Rubio, mindful of the number of Jews in Florida, kind of pretended Trump wasn’t there and just condemned the pair of antisemites and white racists. Ironically one was black, (Ye has produced a tee shirt claiming that white lives matter). The consternation that this dinner produced, finally, after a week, the two that really matter in the wobbly “GOP” coalition, namely the “GOP” leaders of the House Congressman McCarthy and Senate Mitch McConnell to speak out. 

McCarthy took the Trump line that he did not know who Fuentes was then lied that Trump condemned Fuentes. McConnell came out very strongly against Trump saying that what Trump  did not qualify to be President of the United States  So much for the coalition.  

Trump’s explanation for the dinner was that, “Ye had been very good to him and came to him for advice.”. He then maintained on his new platform, “Truth America”, that he didn’t know who Michael Fuentes was. Just as he claimed that he didn’t know who David Duke the former head of the Klu Klux Klan was when he supported him. 

So in the words of William Barr, “Bullshit”. Not only does he know who Michael Fuentes was, no one can get to see the ex President without being vetted because his security detail has to background check every one who comes into see the former President and inform him. Ye for example could have brought an assassin to kill Trump.

Meanwhile while Warnock is running ads of Trump resounding announcement for his support for Walker’s nomination for the Georgian Senate while the so called anti Trump, Governor Kemp is also running ads in his support. All the while Trump is ashamed for endorsing Kemp in the midterms! (if in fact he really did because Kemp has called him un American!}. Who on earth can sort this all out.

Election denial is a gigantic flop

The  total election denial strategy called for by Trump/Bannon has only been evident in Arizona and some obscure County in Pennsylvania. In Arizona it is led by Kari Lake the defeated  ‘GOP” TV anchor who ran for the Governorship and Michael Fincham who lost his attempt to become Attorney GeneraL. The two have not conceded their loss.  The Pennsylvania county under legal threat ratified their result leaving only the one in Arizona county hanging in there. The Attorney General of that County has refused to represent the Election committee as they broke the law. The Voting Supervisor admitted that their refusal was a protest at the Maricopa Count ratifying that the DP winning that County's crucial race and had nothing to do with their own results.

 

Trump’s support of seditious conspirators

The trials of the eight hundred leaders of the January 6 rush on Congress to prevent the ratification of the 2020 election proceeds apace. There are those who have pled guilty to seditious conspiracy to overthrow the American Constitution. There is no gathering of their followers around the Courts to stoke the Trump revolution. Many of the defendants in these marathon trial claim they were obeying President Trump’s bidding. 

The fact that two leaders have been found guilty of Seditious Conspiracy has to make Trump shudder as he is their leader. Also the January 6 Committee, the Justice Department as well as the Georgia Fulton County Grand Jury with the Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling that everyone has to appear at every lawful investigation are well into their investigations. Now Trump barks that all the January 6 participants are patriots and when he regains his rightful Presidency he would pardon them. There have been no outpouring into the streets with the trials or guilty verdicts.of the Oath Keepers. There are more trials to follow.

The Minority vote in Georgia - The Jews and the Asians 

Most significantly the twenty six percent of Jews that voted for the “GOP” in 2022 midterms which if the numbers are correct involve forty thousand citizens in Georgia. They have at least to give their devotion to Trump another thought. They were two major Jewish organizations involved in making appeals to Jewish voters.  There was AIPAC which supported only candidates that were pro Israel including sadly some who were “GOP” candidates that were election deniers. The other organization is JStreet which takes the line that if there is no democracy in America then all else is irrelevant. Richard Haas a former advisor to President Bush and well known author who had been a Republican all his life resigned two years ago and exhorted all, even in synagogues, whatever their politics were, to vote for democracy and therefore the DP in the midterms.

The other crucial minority in the Georgia run off are the Asian and Pacific Islanders whose turnout has doubled since 2016. There are nearly five hundred thousand citizens in that group who all recently were not proportionately active at the polls.They overwhelmingly vote DP. There is no reason to believe they are not participating in this voting blow out in the Georgia run off.  

It is the economy and inflation stupid. Or is I?

The “GOP” to a large extent, where they did look to issues, accentuated the "Disastrous Biden" economy and inflation. Inflation is currently down and did not effect ThanksGiving travel which was back to 2019 numbers. Also retail on Black Friday registered twelve percent higher sales than last year. However the biggest blow to this theory is the kicking in of  Biden’s economic benefits for the elderly. A  greater percentage of senior citizens pulled the lever for the “GOP” in the midterms. By now they will have all received a letter from the Social Security Services indicating that their monthly payments have increased by eight percent and that their Medicare deductions will be far less. Gas prices our down. Unemployment is still at a record low at three and a half percent. The Federal reserve has given up the ghost and has decreased the decreased the size of the interest rate hikes. All this cannot pass unnoticed.

It is Jay H. Ell’s belief that the economy and inflation will impact very little in the Georgia run off.   

The factors that ten percent of the voters in the midterms stated  in exit polls that were important in their voting decision making - Immigration. LGBT rights and Gun control

Immigration which the “GOP” punted to kingdom come in the midterms has not gained much traction as yet. Florida's Governor de Santis, who actually rounded up “illegal” immigrants in the State of Texas giving them false promises then, using Florida tax payers' money flew them to Martha's Vineyard. All this to make the point of the "illegal" immigrant problem. It had no resonance whatsoever. On balance de Santis has faced litigation as a result. For the moment immigration, a massive “GOP” talking point, has fizzled. In the Georgia run off they have hardly mentioned it.

LGBT Rights as a result of the mass murder of gays and the attack on the perpetrator by a Veteran who was at the club just to support his daughter, refocused attention on the hate that the extreme right had generated. This is an issue that was supported by a bipartisan law in the Congress as a result of public support for these rights. Justice Thomas of the Supreme Court, the darling of the right, had threatened to prohibit same sex marriage. Needless to say the “GOP” have avoided this issue like the plague in the run off.

Gun control - a slew of mass murders over the election period  resulted in a record number of six hundred have been recorded in America this year. Again the NRA, which is under a cloud, having not been backing up there cry that “They want to take away your guns”. The time is ripe for the banning of automatic weapons which no reasonable person can argue that you need to go hunting. 

THEN THERE WAS CRIME

Crime was a big deal in the midterms with Fox the major megaphone trumpeting that the it had increased under Biden and the DP. If their reporting is a parameter as to the problem of increased crime, it has dropped to almost nothing!

RACHEL MADDOW'S PODCAST

MSNBC number one anchor Rachel Maddow has  produced a podcast entitled ‘DUAL”. The content being a little known episode in World War !! where twenty three members.of Congress were paid by Hitler to promote Nazism. (Just for the record Charles Lindbergh was a Nazi supporter and  a friend of Hitler. His organization was called America First). 

Maddow discusses that the Congressmen were powerful enough to have two investigating prosecutors fired as a result and rather than face reality they proposed investigations into the Justice Department for their efforts. The trial for sedition ended in chaos and the defendants emerged scot free. One of the prosecutors released his report to the public which included oral and documentary support from Nazis and their files to support what they had discovered in the USA. The only outcome was that these Nazi backers received was that they were not re elected to the Legislature.

Maddow’s podcast has already had ten million hits the highest number in history and is still going strong. It is obvious that it hs a wider influence than just for the faithful.

Well this time round in 2022 midterms besides the election deniers mainly not being elected the Justice Department has promised that anyone involved will be prosecuted by the full weight of the law and have already obtained historical convictions of Sedition and Conspiracy of the leaders of the January 6 insurrection. The activities of the former President have been condemned by several members of the “GOP”. The outstanding exception being leader of the “GOP” in the House, Kevin McCarthy who has promised the extreme right in return for their votes to elect him speaker, investigations into the Justice Department and the Investigators. Jay H. Ell in his previous blog cast doubt that with the slim majority of the “GOP” that McCarthy could obtain the two hundred and eighteen votes needed to be Speaker.

  

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It looks as if Walker has given up the ghost. At the crucial only weekend voting, when Warnock was photographed in one of the long lines so as to register his vote, there was not a peep from the former running back who appeared to be running away from Georgia back to Texas.

Elon Musk has answered the question Jay H. Ell posed to him in the last blog - namely would he have given Hitler, Stalin and Mao a platform on Twitter. He would have.  

Barack Obama, the most popular political figure in America, is appearing in Georgia this week. He will be accompanied by Michelle.

The January 6 Committee is about to present its report and all their transcripts are available to the Department of Justice. It promises to be a blockbuster.

Bet you that Trump wishes that he and McConnell hadn’t blocked Attorney General Garland’s Supreme Court nomination.

Trump is still favorite for winning the “GOP” Presidential nomination.

Jay H. Ell predicts that Warnock, a worthy successor to the Martin Luther King legacy will win all the marbles for the Democrats. Kemp however is the big variable.