2020 CAMPAIGN: DEMOCRATS FORGET ABOUT TRUMP

The importance of the 2020 US election, which is dominated by the Presidential contest, cannot be exaggerated. It comes at a time when the post world war order and dominance of liberal democracy has been challenged by narrow nationalistic populism. While one of the precipitating factors of this turnaround was economic inequality, the left wing political parties  had no attraction in several countries in Europe, Russia, Latin America and most notably in the UK and the United States of America. The significance to the world of America being able to ditch populist nationalism is that it has been the guardian of human rights and individual liberties in the post war period. The election, once again of a President, who disses these values will not only change the American scene for decades to come it will reverberate across the globe. In attempting to counter the distinct possibility the Democrats need to resist the temptation to focus on Trump, who thrives on the attention, and continue with their 2018 tactic of seeing, hearing and recognizing the priorities of “the people”.

A DEMOCRAT PRESIDENT IS FAR FROM A SHOE IN

America, a country in perpetual election mode is full swing into the 2020 election cycle with the 2018 Congress only a 100 days old. In the midterms the Democrats had a sensational outcome flipping 41 Congressional seats and taking control of the House of Representatives. Notwithstanding that success Donald Trump’s name was not on the ballot so a Democrat Presidential nominee is far from a shoe in for the 2020 WhiteHouse. The current Presidential incumbent’s base remains firm regardless of his legal peril. With 40 percent of the electorate behind him in spite of daily scandal and the chaos of his Presidency, Trump is only 7 percent off the number that put him into power. The Donald is more than aware that the incumbent invariably gets a second term hence his non stop tweeting and Nuremberg rally style campaign mode that won him his first term is in top gear. 

The fact that a populist nationalist won the Presidency when the major causes of the middle class anger was predicated by income inequality, wage stagnation and job loss is indicative that the political dynamic has dramatically altered. Under adverse economic circumstances, if the traditional left - right wing political spectrum was in play the Democrats would have benefited. Instead the small significant percentage that swopped parties were from the Mid West industrial states that the Democratic Party, (DP), had consistently held. The Democrats cannot afford to counter Trump by traditional left wing doctrinaire politics. There is a danger that they might as a number of their large field of candidates for the DP nomination are trying to outdo each from the left. 

THE DEMOCRATIC RESPONSE FOR 2020

The current Democratic Presidential field is exiting and exploding with enthusiasm and ideas but the prospective nominees are all over the policy and ideas map with the winner impossible to predict. What is needed now is a clearcut Democratic agenda based on the key issues that portended the dramatic 2018 turnover. One of the problems of the non parliamentary American political system is that there is no official leader of the opposition to set the agenda . 

The DP face two hurdles to their challenge of Trump: The danger of not having a single coherent policy in answer to Trump’s populism which leaves him free to cherry pick the Democratic platforms that favor him and run against a straw man of his own making. (Ironically Bernie Sanders is not the most radical in the field and already adapting). Secondly, like in 2018, the DP have to forego the temptation of focusing on his miserable, uncaring, corrupt and authoritarian Presidency. Trump feeds off that rhetoric and will claim that this is criticism from the elites and that, “Nobody knows this system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it”. They have to stick to the Andrew Gillum dictum of 2018, “Never wrestle with a pig”. Trump needs to be ignored. Let the media and the angry traditional Republican pundits play footsie with him. Nancy Pelosi needs to tell her Committee heads to cool it and work less ostentatiously in their quest to “expose” him. There is only one issue that might impact his base at the moment and that is his tax returns. The DP need not become obsessed with the Mueller report. 

FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE 2018 DEMOCRATIC FRESHMAN CLASS 

Nancy Pelosi needs to introduce comprehensive legislation in the House to set the 2020 DP election manifesto. This wily campaigner has already shown she can adapt in that she boldly promoted the talented freshman class. She showcased them in prominent committee positions, allowing several of them to be in the chair in committee and subcommittee sessions. This approached deviated from the past where the newcomers were shoved into obscurity on the grounds of their lack of seniority.  By her actions she projected the new fresh face of the DP.  There is more than method in her madness in bucking the staid hierarchical attitude to these Congresspeople. She needs them to retain their seats in the Republican districts that they flipped, particularly in the Mid Western States that gave Trump his victory with the minority of the 2016 vote. It is no secret that the new Democratic incumbents almost ignored the POTUS, concentrating on issues that resonated with those who believed that the elites had ignored them in the past as well as the suburban Republican women, who were so revolted by Trump that they finally bolted. 

ISSUES THAT THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD PUT FORWARD AS LEGISLATION

Francis Fukuyama writing about the explosive success of the international populist movement, particularly in the foremost liberal bureaucracies of the UK and USA, explained in his defining book,”Identity and the Politics of Resentment”’ that the workers abandoned their default position of the left even if was against their financial interests. They trusted the populists to deliver on the issues more than the traditional politicians who had failed to recognize their needs. This even when their abandonment was to their financial disadvantage. 

The electorates’ response resulted in the economists scratching their heads and sent the Parties back to the drawing board. In America the Republicans took the easy route they just handed the good old GOP to Trump Inc in an undignified, sad. pathetic and anti constitutional capitulation. The DP shifted gears in 2018 and now have to be careful to stick to the lessons served up by their freshman class. They exploited the one area where populist demagogues are vulnerable in that they promise an economic future they cannot deliver. In addition Trump assured a magical solution to the vexing problem of immigration simultaneously labelling the immigrants as the economic, social and criminal problem facing America. He has not fulfilled his promise on Mexico paying for the wall and with his incoherent response to the issue has worsened the situation with no foreseeable solution in sight.

So Pelosi needs to begin working hard at legislation that will provide answers and in the process help define the DP Presidential agenda. While bold initiatives are needed they must have a chance of swaying the electorate. It is salutary to note that 36 of the Democratic freshmen won in middle of the road Republican constituencies. The areas that need to be covered are health care and income inequity - through tax legislation, job training and infrastructure projects and immigration. The latter is first and foremost as immigrants have been used as the economic bogeymen as well as the threat to the culture and values of American society. 

IMMIGRATION 

It is no use standing around watching Trump flounder around while criticizing his inhumane behavior, a comprehensive package needs to presented. There is even a consensus among Republicans on a number of the issues. Broadly speaking they don’t support the uprooting of those who are part of the American economic and social scene today and Trump’s Alice in Wonderland  solutions to the current chaos at the Southern border. 

More specifically an approach would entail that; it is impractical and economic suicide to believe that 11 million illegals who are integrated into American society can be thrown out. A pathway to residency and then citizenship has to be agreed to in principle and then thrashed out and that Obama’s recognition that the birthers’ status in America has to be regularized. An infrastructure needs to be instituted that can rapidly determine in a quick and humane way the status of those presenting at the border. A determination can then be made as to who legitimately qualifies for amnesty . A bipartisan commission needs to be set up to make changes to the existing legal immigration system taking into account the needs of the country and its traditional values. Appropriate aid needs to be provided to the countries where these desperate souls are fleeing from not withdrawn as Trump has done, worsening the situation. 

The Democrats have to be seen to be tackling this problem the solution of which is not only the cessation of the inhumane unconscionable actions of separating parents and children and putting children in cages but a rationale answer to the irrational rhetoric and xenophobia emanating from the President.

HEALTH CARE.

It is crazy to start punting Medicare For All which will never happen. Stick to amending Obamacare, getting the 30 million uninsured on it, cutting the cost of prescription drugs and increasing the number of Primary Care Doctors. Have another look at the Clinton proposal that couldn’t get off the ground in the 1990’s. Note that it couldn’t get to first base when the DP controlled all three branches of government. Healthcare reform has a colossal ally which it didn’t have for generations, namely the medical establishment. The rural communities will lose their hospitals if Obamacare goes -focus on that. Not only has the issue the potential to shake up a constituency which is currently part of the Trump base it could get another major medical constituency on board - the hospitals.

In short don’t get revolutionary the electorate doesn’t resonate. Even Obamacare which assisted so many took nearly eight years to be supported by the majority of the citizenry. 

TAX POLICY

Here the electorate are onsides. It is just question again of not going overboard. Company tax should stay but all the deductions shouldn’t. No buy back of shares - that money is supposed to go into wages and research and development. The majority of the billionaires agree that they should be taxed more and the idea of a wealth tax should be researched. A minimum wage is needed - half the population could not find 500 dollars should they face an emergency. A meaningful effort should be addressed towards reducing income inequality. One further point the continuing deficits should be a focus. These have been exacerbated by Trump spending like a drunken sailor and giving the rich handouts that have not trickled down. Henry Ford realized that he could only sell his cars if he gave his workers enough salary to buy them. 

AMERICAN VALUES

Instead of attacking Trump for trampling over American democracy the values and customs need to be stated in positive terms. Patriotism should replace nationalism there is a difference. All Americans say they support the Constitution, the Bill of Rights and the Declaration of Independence. In addition the support that has evolved for all the institutions over two and a half centuries is supposedly sacred. 

JAY H. ELL COULD GO ON AND ON

There are several urgent issues like job training, job creation linked to infrastructure development and repair, climate change, the cost of college education which is outrageous and the like but Jay H. Ell is sure the reader gets the drift. The issues that Trump trumpeted were going to be answered by economic nationalism need to be addressed. This is most easily done in the economic sphere but there is a large identity group that were taken for granted by the Democrats, that consolidated his base. - the American workers who perceived that their needs were being ignored by Washington. There are those that jumped on the bandwagon that were xenophobic nationalists and for them Trump will always be their man. But there are plenty of others that had legitimate grouses. Unhappily for the left pure economic solutions are not the answer. Nor does the electorate react well to radical changes. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The never ending number of the talented Presidential Democratic field has largely not learned the lessons of 2016 and the solutions of 2018. There is an overwhelming need for the Democratic Party leadership to set an agenda that falls in line with the tactics of the successful Democratic freshmen of 2018. Most significantly they went into their communities and made their constituents feel seen and heard. 

Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House has the gravitas and the support to enact legislation that will define an agenda for the Democratic Party. She should not delay. Furthermore she should not allow the committees of Congress to get bogged down solely on Trump.  

There is an urgent need for America to redefine its values of liberal democracy both for themselves and for the world. 

The issue of immigration needs to be addressed head on. Not only is it a practical necessity but the whole false, bigoted Trump mantra is inextricably bound to it.

Hold onto your seats America is in for a rough ride as the increasingly crazed POTUS tries anything and everything to show his base that he, not the Washington elites, is in charge. Besides behaving like King Trump, the first, no madcap scheme will be out of bounds as he tries desperately to hang onto power. He might even declare that he can run a third term or that he should be King forever with Donald Jnr. to succeed him.

When do you think that the Congressional Republicans will wake up to the fact that all they are is voting fodder to trash what principles they still have left?

TRUMP: ISRAEL, SAUDI ARABIA, SYRIA, RUSSIA AND NATO

Donald J. Trump has no coherent foreign policy. What makes matters worse, like with everything else, he changes his mind within a tweet beat. He also, in private, gives foreign leaders another take. What further exacerbates the chaos is that his actions aren’t necessarily in sync with what he opines. Finally, the waters are further muddied by his administration running around “clarifying” what the policy really is. Nobody takes much notice of this behavior because it is par for the course and foreign policy is not on the list of priorities for voters. International relations however is the one area that upsets the Republican legislators no end and periodically they defy their leader with a vengeance. 

To sum up the POTUS’S simplistic foreign policy, it is to trash America’s traditional allies and alliances especially NATO and befriend the most bizarre nations and right wing leaders. However, if anyone was polled as to who he regards as America’s greatest ally, it would be Israel with of course Saudi Arabia and Russia in a photo finish for second place. His approach to Syria uncovers what he really thinks.

NATO AND RUSSIA, TRUMP AND PUTIN 

The North American Treaty Organization, (NATO), which celebrates its seventieth birthday this year has been an amazing success. It held the line during the Cold War from 1949 to the fall of Communism in 1991. During that time, when Donald was apparently asleep, the world was divided into two nuclear powers periodically terrfying all the world that it was on the brink of Armageddon. Proxy wars were fought all over the show including Vietnam and Korea which tore American society asunder. Nuclear arsenals were built up and children in American schools had nuclear drills at an order similar to those being executed in the event of shooters arriving with AK 47s. 

When Putin’s beloved USSR collapsed and disintegrated into fifteen separate countries, America hailed this as the success of its capitalist, democratic society where freedom triumphed over communism and totalitarianism.  What really hurt the Russian Premier was that the WARSAW PACT that had been formed as a buffer to NATO went the way of the USSR. What added to his ignominy was the fact that virtually all its members, seven Eastern European States, joined “the enemy” NATO thereby strengthening that organization to twenty - nine  members.  NATO had grown exponentially from the original twelve founder nations. Needless to say Putin simply hates the Western military alliance and what was the last straw for him was when Ukraine, which he considered an integral part of the Russian motherland, made moves to join the North Atlantic club. 

From day one of the Trump presidency his agenda on NATO  dovetailed with that of his newest best international friend. He got stuck into the organization and America’s traditional allies with a vengeance, threatening to withdraw if they didn’t pay their “fair share”. The latter was of course the biggest amount of garbage because the American defense budget has nothing to do with NATO. Lest there be any doubt as to the Trumpian intent it was leaked that he had told his advisors that he wanted out. But like in everything else he changed his public pronouncements from day to day and month to month.

 Like in so many other situations the gamut of other Trump dysfunctional activities followed in Trump’s wake. The clean up mob from Tillerson to Pompeo with former Defense Secretary Mathis as the mainstay reassured the bemused and edgy NATO dramatic personae that Donald did not know what he was talking about. Congress, especially the Republicans, really got tense about Trump abandoning America’s role as the defender of Western liberal democracy so they let NATO and the world know that their only Congressional oversight of the President was on foreign affairs, which is the one portfolio that the President is traditionally given free rein. 

The US legislative branch’s most recent act of defiance was to invite the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, to the rare honor of addressing a joint session of Congress. The Congress hailed the NATO Chief with nearly a score of standing ovations. The loudest acclamation of the address was for the statement that NATO had been founded to counter Russian aggression and remains a counter to an aggressive and unpredictable Russia. He pointed out that Russia remained a threat to democracy as exhibited by its aggression towards Georgia and Ukraine. 

The Secretary - General threw a sop to an anxious and uncomfortable Vice President Mike Pence, who would be sure to report back to his boss. This the VP would do In words of one syllable so that the President would comprehend. Stoltenberg praised Trump for jacking NATO up by getting member states to spend more on their defense. Trump of cause was AWOL but more significantly so was his long suffering and ambitious Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who had according to the Washington Post, nothing conflicting on his calendar. 

In an interview with Fareed Zakaria, Stoltenberg when challenged as to the threat Trump poses to NATO, reassured that Trump’s actions belied his statements and then rolled out a couple of behaviors which he interpreted as the POTUS’S  undying support for the organization of defenders of liberal democracy. The Secretary General also confided to the CNN analyst that Trump had whispered in his ear in their private deliberations that he simply loved the organization. And that completed the run out of the Trumpian dysfunction on his foreign policy relating to NATO.

SAUDI ARABIA

Whichever way it is viewed Trump has been in an arranged marriage with the Saudis ever since wayback. There are many well footnoted books on the subject and Jay H. Ell recommends to the discerning reader, “The House of Trump and The House of Saud”.  While Trump is not wedded to monogamy as he is also married to the Russians, the Saudis have more than a special place in his big heart. Jared, his son in law, and the only individual who is not blood related to have his trust, is his go to man with the current number one in the Arab Kingdom, MBS, Mohammed Bin Suleiman, who is a prince to boot. Jared and MBS are reported to be as thick as thieves. Jared who is one big operator is rumored to have been bailed out by his good friend in his disastrous purchase of a billion dollar property. The rumored payback is that Jared and his daddy in law are anchoring MBS’s tenuous hold on respectability after the murder of Washington Post’s editorial board member, Jamal Kashoggi. 

Now The Donald is not very big in publicly professing his love for the desert kingdom, which in of itself makes the whole thing suspicious. The Kingdom, however, was his first port of call in his Presidency. Again the rumor, from reasonably reliable sources, is that they, the Saudis and Trump, are sorting out the Middle East between them. Trump is backing them in their proxy war with Iran in Yemen. The latter is turning out to be an international scandal, which if it wasn’t for Bibi Netanyahu behaving like Bibi Netanyahu in response to Hamas’s aggression, it would be the focus of as many resolutions that are against Israel for the Palestinian situation. 

Now the Republicans in Congress are very suspicious of the Saudis and MBS. They are not quite persuaded that just because his Royal Highness is allowing women, the moment he releases them from jail, to drive motor cars in 2019, that he is on the side of all things bright and beautiful. 

Whichever way the cookie crumbles the Saudis are largely responsible for the spread of Wahabi - Salafist fundamentalism and the terrorism that accompanies it. At the risk of boring the reader, Jay H. Ell has to point out where all the 9/11 terrorists came from and whose passport Osama held. More significantly the Madrases that the Saudis sponsored are still breeding intolerance in Muslim countries and throughout the world. The most recent result is turning the largest moderate Muslim country in the world, Indonesia, into a fundamentalist haven. 

Once again the Republicans in Congress have seen the need to weigh on their fearless leader. Specifically they are weighing in the Kashoggi brutal and disgusting assassination. They have also invoked the War Powers Act telling Trump to get the hell out of Yemen.Trump faces a veto proof resolution on the subject. 

Jay H. Ell has not the vaguest idea what is going on with Jared, The Donald and the Saudis. Supposedly they are crucial in the final solution to the Middle East. The Saudi leaders who have supposedly seen the light have not withdrawn from their major initiative of Islamic fundamentalism which has rocked the world, the results of which are still playing out. 

They are involved with Trump in his Iranian fight as the Sunni Saudis despite the Shia Iranians.

ISRAEL AND THE SYRIAN , IRANIAN AND RUSSIAN AXIS

Now Trump professes his major foreign policy love is Israel. His response to any claim that he has been supportive of anti semitism by failing to condemn the anti semitic sloganeering of the ultra right in Charlottesville and his Hillary attack with a Star of David in the corner, not to mention his refusal to tell David Duke and his KKK crowd he doesn’t need their support is met with a pat response. The latter is that he has Jewish grandchildren but more importantly he has demonstrated his support of Bibi Netanyahu and Israel. In addition Israel and Trump share a common number one enemy, no dispute here, Iran.

In the light of his professed love for Israel Trump’s behavior in the Syrian war is inexplicable. He announced one tweet morning, to the shock of all including his inner circle, that he was pulling all US troops out of there. Now there are evil empires backing Assad namely Russia and Iran. Trump has to be well aware that Israel is doing all in its power to stop Iran turning Syria into another Lebanon with its Hezbollah. Syria could spawn yet another Iranian backed terrorist organization attacking Israel. Russia, whether Bibi denies it or not, is on Assad’s and Iran’s side. 

Needless to say the clean up squad came out following Trump’s sell out to Israel, the opposition Syrian groups and the Kurds. Pompeo, the Secretary of State once again explained that Trump didn’t really mean what he said, the US would keep four hundred and fifty troops there. The last person to squeal would be Bibi on the eve of an election where he had already made an historical contemptible decision to form a pact with an Israeli terrorist party. He has posters on the streets of Israel with the photos of him and Trump. However he has to take into his devious calculations that Trump has let the Iranians in. 

Now,Trump, for everyone that doubts that Israel isn’t top of his foreign country pops, will add, in addition to his grandchildren, he has declared that in the future he will physically move the US Embassy to Jerusalem, that the Golan heights are Israel’s sovereign territory and that he doesn’t give two hoots what Bibi does with the Israeli settlers and the Two State solution. With regard to the Embassy and the Golan Heights both of these are token gestures that cost nothing and really have achieved nothing new for Israeli security. Iran is the existential threat. 

Trump will argue that he pulled out of Obama’s deal with Iran which had, ironically, shut down their nuclear operation. Therefore that too is just political posturing. The Israeli security establishment always claimed that the five nation deal with Iran was a good one and nobody but nobody has intimated that the Iranians have abrogated the accord. So what has Trump done for Israel lately on security - zilch. Of course Jared is on the job with a great big plan to save Israel but whatever it is it cannot include smashing the Iranian, Russian, Assad axis. 

So who is Trump ultimately making happy with his pull out in Syria - certainly not the Israelis. No one can believe that he has executed this for the Iranians. That leaves his oldest best friend, mother Russia as the beneficiary. This should come as no surprise even though Mueller found no criminal collusion. However, those who are backing him, while holding their noses, are in for a big shock when the re elected Bibi, or miraculously if it is General Gantz, expose to the world, the outcome of Donald’s perfidy. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

All this leaves open the question that the Mueller investigation sort to resolve - the reason for Russia’s intervention in the 2016 election in favor of Donald J. Trump.

It also makes it clear that The Donald’s foreign policy is remarkably in line with his perceived personal agenda. The Israelis are about to learn the hard way that The Donald has no real friends, just ephemeral transactional allies. Putin and his Russia are the winners over Bibi and Israel for the moment.

The world awaits the results of Jared Kushner, the Secretary Without Portfolio’s negotiations to bring about peace to the Middle East.

TRUMP 2020 - ITS HEALTHCARE STUPID AND BARR WILL DELIVER

William J. Barr, who punted for the job of Attorney General at a time when Trump was looking for a “protector", has been charged with taking up the Trump convulsive policy change to focus on healthcare by ending Obamacare in the courts. Barr, who was called a political hack, “Cover - up General Barr”, in 1992 by famed Conservative commentator and Nixon speech writer, William Safire, accepted Trump’s destructive mandate, albeit under protest. This he did as rapidly as he came to exonerating Trump after the three years of investigation of Trump by Mueller and the FBI. 

The POTUS for whatever reason seems to want to divert attention from his emergency at the border and his recent victory of being found not guilty of collusion and then obstruction of justice by Barr. Apparently, like everything else, this was a spontaneous idea that came to him, literally on his way to the Senate, rather than representing a carefully worked out policy. Healthcare, he reckoned, is what it is all about and he was now going to focus on it. If that was the number one issue and he was after all number one then only he “alone can fix it”. To the glee of the Democratic Party Trump would make the 2020 Presidential campaign about society's medical care. 

HEALTH, TRUMP, THE GOP AND THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

While the reeling GOP legislators see this as yet another milestone around their 2020 necks no one is holding their breaths that they will buck the will of the new Emperor of the GOP. The House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthey strongly advised the President not to proceed while the Republican Leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, washed his hands of the matter by commenting that he was “looking forward to what President Trump was proposing and what he could work out with the speaker”. 

Trump, an omnipotent King, knows that whatever he does, even being accused of causing early deaths of loved ones, there is no reason to believe that his unmovable base of forty percent will budge. The POTUS confidently hopes that the faithful will accept - even though Mexico hasn’t payed for the wall he hasn’t built, that he hasn’t reopened the coal mines, and the factories, not reduced the national debt and not increased their wages in real terms - that he will now provide health care for every American. 

While Trump’s bizarre move won’t play in suburbia and throw the house further to the Democrats, he still might narrowly convince the States of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to deliver. With the country still polarized the POTUS has convinced himself that he can repeat his miracle of 2016. He will also argue to the believers that the alternative to him is Karl Marx. That and the fact that because he maintains that Medicare for all is socialist but his assertion for healthcare for all is not, he reckons will once again push him over the edge or so he gambles.

BARR’S NEW JOB AS TRUMP’S NEWEST BEST LACKEY TO IMPLEMENT INSANITY

Barr has now been charged with the POTUS’s new directive to have Obamacare totally obliterated in the courts. The President, spurred on by an isolated decision in Texas and ignoring all the unsuccessful challenges to Obama’s Affordable Care Act, hopes to perform yet another miracle. The fact that Barr is following Trump’s directive is more evidence that Trump somehow read that he was finally getting a man who would obey his leader - right or wrong as both Mr. Barr and the Secretary of Health opposed this move. Like every Cabinet Secretary before him Barr has to decide between integrity and go the way of a Mattis or a Tillerson or hang in like a Mnuchin or Nielsen. The problem with Barr is he has no choice he sold his soul in1992 and reminded the Trump Adminstration in his job application in 2018 that he had not wavered.

On its face this policy tsunami appears insane but it shows that Trump is getting the message, in a bizarre sort of way. Healthcare was the main policy issue that resulted in the Republicans losing 41 seats in November. Trump's tautologous logic is that in order to give healthcare to all it has to begin by taking away it or parts of it for at least half the population - whether it be diabetic management in the elderly, reproductive rights for women, free preventive care, coverage for dependent children, total healthcare for additional 21 million or risking it for 133 million, who can be refused insurance because of “existing conditions”. In addition millions who were covered by the new provisions of Medicaid would once again not have any medical care.

Trump who can’t walk and chew gum at the same time hasn’t computed that the two healthcare initiatives that he has taken responsibility for, eradication of Aids and addressing the opioid crisis, are totally dependent on Obamacare infrastructure. So if he fulfills one promise he axes two others in the process. 

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE THE MORE THEY REMAIN THE SAME

Trump’s support or lack of it has remained remarkably stable throughout the past three years. His approval rating has fluctuated between 38 and 42 percent while his disapproval rate has been steady as a rock between 53 and 55 percent. It should worry him that the spin that his new “protector” concluded that there was  “no obstruction” didn’t move the needle one jot, but it doesn’t. 

Trump operates with his tweets between the Fox Echo Chamber and his Nuremberg style rallies. He has had close on 70 mass jamborees since his electoral college victory in November 2016 - that is one for in every ten days in office. In between them he has spent 232 days, more than a quarter of his office term, on Trump Properties at tax payor expense. Like everything else this gross dereliction of duty does not impact his cult followers a jot. Having attacked President Obama for playing too much golf, “I love golf but in the WhiteHouse there won’t be time for vacations there won’t be time for golf - I am going to work my a..se off…”. Needless to point out, his failure to follow through having spent a 172 days at his golf properties, again, like everything else, does not impact his adoring base. 

TRUMP’S CYNICAL REASON FOR GOING AHEAD

Once The Donald had made his decision, according to the Washington Post there was a major tussle in the WhiteHouse as to whether to go ahead or not. His Acting Chief of Staff Peter Mulvaney punted to press on because Donald’s base “would just love it”. Trump had to be in two minds because the consensus on The Hill from where he had just returned was a resounding no. Apparently Vice President Pence was also against the move fearing the political consequences. But The Donald was not to be diverted from his new revelation, he was on his way to Michigan for the 67th or 68th Mass rally since taking office and the base would not really be juiced up by “no collusion” they had heard it so many times before. There of course was the “promises made promises kept” mantra which was wearing a bit thin as was the number one promise, “Mexico will pay for the wall” which had now morphed to “continue to build the wall” which not even they could really take seriously. So health policy it was going to be.

As Mulvaney and his newest best friend Lindsey Graham had argued healthcare was the issue and the Republicans needed to own it.  It was common knowledge that they didn’t know what they were talking about because the Republicans hadn't shown any taste for “owning it”. It costs money to give citizens medical care and to date when confronted as to their vision they would talk endless garbage about the market sorting it out. The Republicans have guaranteed, again with no understanding of political theory, that they will defend  government funded Medicare and the VA to the death and simultaneously protect America against “socialist” medicine. Trump, likewise, wasn’t going to be bothered by reason he would rid the country of the disastrous Obamacare and replace it for healthcare for all. He forgot to add that Mexico would pay for it. 

The Washington Post commented what the most disgusting fact of this whole issue was - no - one in Trump’s circle mentioned the devastation, pain, distress and death that axing Obamacare would evoke, with nothing to replace it with. One lame suggestion by Lindsey Graham is give the money to the States and let them decide. 

Apparently it would be more efficient to set up 50 bureaucracies to manage "health care for all". Trump, of course, hasn’t given the matter ten seconds thought and the Republican legislators are not about to put forward a “socialist” plan to compete with Obamacare. 

The question is, has Trump miscalculated in the same way he did by listening to Anne Coulter, Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham just a few short months ago? He shut down the Government for 39 days to put the pressure on Nancy Pelosi to give him money for his wall only to have Mitch McConnell beg him to reopen the Government. Once again he is not listening to those that have their ear to the electorate. They haven’t forgotten the grass roots campaign lead by the Indivisible movement in the midterms. The town hall meetings and the sit ins that were packed with questioners with their number one priority Obamacare, still give the GOP legislators nightmares and they don’t need a rerun.

WILL TRUMP’S BASE HANG IN THERE ALTHOUGH THE MIDTERMS RESULTS SAY NO

The question is will his attempt to annihilate Obamacare with all its ramifications, offering nothing in its place, impact him as it had already devastated the Republican Party in the Midterms.  David Axelrod, Obama’s former Chief Advisor, believes so and he is a very cautious pundit. Remember the Democrats are far more trusted on healthcare than the Republicans  - 50% versus 34%. The Republican legislators have warned Trump not to go there. They couldn’t axe Obamacare when they held both Houses and in nine years in control could not put a plan together that even they could pass. But teflon Trump believes this is what his base wants and this is what he is going to punt. Lindsey Graham his newest best friend who abandoned the memory of his last best friend, John McCain, is with him as is, once again with feeling, are Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham. 

David Axelrod who has been around the country, in every nook and cranny and at every stop is thanked by grateful individuals who relate that his or her handicapped or chronically ill child can now receive care. Everyone knows a family like that. In addition others have written and spoken about the removal of caps on compensation which in the past were death sentences to those with life threatening illnesses. Then there has been a litany of testimony from those who were unable to receive coverage previously because of preexisting conditions.

 It is certain that whoever the Democratic candidate is will have concrete improvements on Obamacare to run on. The House majority is about to introduce legislation to that effect. For example, there are holes in the Affordable Care Act such as some in the Middle Class are paying more for their insurance as they do not qualify for subsidies. Speaker Pelosi will be opposed by Republicans in both chambers and of course by Trump who will offer nothing concrete other that they can do better.

There is little doubt that at the rallies the faithful will go rah rah rah when Trump announces his efforts to dump Obamacare through the courts where he has little chance. The majority that upheld Obamacare in the Supreme Court are still there - the four liberals plus Chief Justice Roberts. Roberts is growing more and more sensitive that Trump regards the Courts as a hindrance, is unlikely to change his mind. 

The question is whether Trump is in a lose lose situation with this issue? If the Courts support his Administration it is he who will have taken away healthcare and even if he had a healthcare plan he hasn’t the legislative control to push it through. In addition he is not going to have a free run on this issue and with every other promise down the tubes to his rural blue collar base why will the adoring give up their healthcare as well? Trump has no doubt they will. As the populist said at his inaugural, “I alone can save you….”. So far that base has not wavered from that mantra.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It is impossible to ascertain what his base might do in this instance. Polls mean nothing when it comes The Donald. Even the exit polls showed that he had lost in 2018. The fact is that there had to be defections of his base in the midterms, which his opinion polls did not reflect. Remember he campaigned for the Republicans like mad telling the faithful that this was all about him, (who else?), and they mustn’t embarrass him. The POTUS however figures with his name on the ballot the polls will hold and he will do what he did last time……..

There is an argument that Barr will lose his reputation if he goes ahead with this uncaring cruel senseless instruction, Those that disagree claim that he has no reputation to lose.

As Barr proceeds with his coverup summaries, redacts, delays and delays of the Mueller report so that by the time it reveals what Democrats are disgusted about, the illusion that there was no collusion would be irrelevant. If Barr is able to cover up this behavior maybe he is skillful enough to persuade the courts that Trump can deliver healthcare for all by removing healthcare for nearly all. 

Barr has joined  the other major enabler in the Trump phenomenon, Mitch McConnell. Both of them, like Roy Cohn, who had his name stained in the history books by his support of the demon Joseph McCarthy, have ensured a place in the story of America, which will make their descendants cringe at their mention. It has to be no coincidence that Roy Cohn became Donald Trump's counsel as well.

The Democrats must focus on healthcare and other policies as they did in the midterms rather than trying to move the needle with Trump’s base by telling them what they already know but don’t care, namely that Trump is corrupt. They just have to find out for themselves that he does not really value them and that he is manipulating them for his own agendas.

As John Boehner the former former Republican House Speaker said when Trump tried to axe Obamacare the first time, “Good luck. It’s just not going to happen”.