WHO WILL DEMS CHOOSE TO OPPOSE TRUMP?

Assuming that Donald J. Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election which Democratic Party, (DP), challenger has the best chance of beating him? Even though the Democratic field is far from finalized there are at least twenty - five candidates that have declared, indicated that they are considering a run or a just widely expected to give it a go. 

 The Primary process whereby Presidential candidates are elected is as byzantine and as complicated as the Electoral College that finally decides who will be the President. A central  problem is that different States use different processes to elect the 4,051 delegates to the Democratic Convention that formally nominates the Presidential Candidate. Besides the demographics and the policies of the prospective candidate the issue is further complicated by the order in which States first have their Primary contests. Very few of the candidates have the resources to continue after poor showings early on. Then name recognition, scandals, the debates, endorsements, fund raising all add to the mix. Finally, the Presidential choice might have to overcome a third candidate who may or may not draw support that will impact the outcome. 

THE DEMOCRATIC ESTABLISHMENT HAS NO SAY IN THE OUTCOME. 

It is a myth that the Democratic Party, it’s hierarchy or its legislators have any authority to nominate the candidate,  In fact the “Super Delegates” that existed in 2016 that gave Hillary a leg up in the 2016 Democratic Presidential run off have no say in the DP choice this time around and their influence has been relegated to a situation where the elected delegates are unable to make a decIsion. 

It would thus be far more appropriate to decide what characteristics and demographics would give the Democratic candidate the best chance of countering the alchemy that allowed Trump to emerge triumphant in the 2016 election in the hope that the Democratic primaries will somehow come to the same conclusion. It is fair to say that there is an ongoing debate as to what the demographics, policy and central thrust of the candidate should be should be in this changing world that allowed The Donald to win the election in the first place and the dramatic body politic and electoral responses to it. 

Analysing how the 2018 Democratic tsunami came about as well as Donald's victory in 2016 is a great start and all the DP have to do is to learn from 2016 and emulate 2018!

HOW DID THE DONALD WIN AND WHAT HAD HAPPENED THEREAFTER AND IN THE MIDTERMS.

The key region that flipped in favor of the POTUS was in the Midwest which had suffered most in a world where industry and manufacture jobs had not been replaced by the digital information revolution and was being threatened further by automation. The dejected laid of factory workers, coal miners and the like in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin  changed their States from red to blue by the narrowest of margins. Many of the Trump voters had supported Obama in the two previous elections. Trump also won the traditionally swing state of Florida by a similar whisker. The Republicans delivered the traditional red states and with three million less votes the reality TV/property developer became the POTUS.

Trump’s election to the Presidency evoked the largest mass protests in the country’s history since the Vietnam war. These were lead by The Women’s March which conducted nation wide gatherings throughout the country. The anger did not die and protestors began to organize, protest and marshal voters to the polls in special elections. The major movement in this regard was “Indivisible” which to this day is still active. They formed thousands of groups. The fact that in every special election, post Trump, whether it State or National, the Republicans lost support whether the seat was flipped or not, was evidence of their success.  

Similarly the midterms resulted in the biggest percentage shift towards the Democrats since Watergate and a 41 net seat gain in the House of Representatives which became Democratic once again. It did not however pass unnoticed, specially to Trump, that the Senate elections which markedly favored the Republican produced a two seat swing to the Republicans. Trump still had his base, albeit reduced.

WHO VOTED THE DEMOCRATIC VICTORY IN 2018?

Key to the Trump thrashing were the women who turned out in droves to elect a record number of their gender to Congress. A record 103 women, nearly a quarter of the members of the House of Representatives, gained membership. Of these 89 are Democrats and only 13 are  Republicans. In the Senate there are 25 women, 17 from the DP. The total number of Republican women in Congress, 21,  decreased by over a quarter in this midterm election cycle.

For the first time there was an equal percentages, (49), of white women voting for the Democrats and the Republicans. However where this really hit home was in the suburbs, where the  overwhelming majority of College educated Republican women were  situated and where the Democrats gained many of their seats. This happening occured largely in the suburbs of already blue states. In total the Democratic victory was as a result of their 59% to 40% lead of the women vote. 

While there was the usual disproportionately high percentage of minority support for the Democrats it was the fact that these groups turned out in far greater numbers than ever before that influenced the outcome .  It was interesting to note that Trump still got nearly 30% of the Hispanic vote as compared to 9% of the African Americans and 23% of the Asians. There are now 39 members of color in the House of Representatives. 

These results were particularly significant as the mid term turn out was the highest in a104 years. Overall, the Democrats beat the Republicans in total votes cast by a huge 9%.

WHERE WERE THE DEMOCRATIC VICTORIES AND IMPORTANT VOTE INCREASES 

What really mattered in the grand scheme of things, as far as the 2020 Presidential is concerned is what happened in the MidWestern and possible swing states. The Democrats in the House of representatives flipped 5 in Pennsylvania, 2 in Michigan, 3 in Minnesota, 2 in Iowa and 1 in Kansas. Happiness extended further in that Republican Governor Walker of Wisconsin went to a resounding defeat, and Democratic Senators Brown, (Ohio) 7% majority,  Klobuchar, (Minnesota) 23% majority, Baldwin, (Wisconsin), 11% majority, Casey, (Pennsylvania),13% majority and Stabenow, (Michigan) 7% majority all triumphed convincingly.

Seven Governorships were flipped to the DP including dark red Kansas and Michigan. Added to this were gains all over the show from Utah to Texas turning some States too a shade of purple. Red Colorado once again elected an openly gay Democratic Governor by a gigantic 11%. Governor Polis replaced popular John Hippenlooper who had served out two terms. Another significant result was in blood red Texas Beto O’ Rourke came within an ace. 2.5% of beating Ted Cruz, the Republican incumbent, while in Southern Georgia Stacey Adams came within a whispher of winning that Governorship. 

The largest gains, were as to be expected in solid Democratic States: California, 7, New York 3 and New Jersey, 4. 

What has to have cheered The Donald is that the GOP in the Senate contests won DP held Florida and beat out three other Democrats in States that he had won convincingly in 2016 while only losing two seats in the process. His base held. 

SO WHAT ARE THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF A CANDIDATE THAT CAN BEAT INCUMBENT TRUMP

There are good reasons behind the divisive Trump’s strategy that gave him electoral success in 2016. In spite of the fact that he campaigned like crazy in 2018 he was not on the ballot, so he reckons they don't count. 

He has to hope when it comes to a Presidential election the Republicans that deserted him will not have the stomach to vote for a “socialist” Democratic candidate who supports open borders to let illegals in who murder, rape, form gangs and take away jobs from real Americans. Central to his campaign, regardless of the Democratic nominee, he will be running against 2 of the 282 Democrats in Congress, Socialists, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Occasio - Cortez. 

He has been underestimated too often, an assessment not ignored by potential DP voters who in the polls favor the nominee who has the best chance to beat him.

THE DEMOCRATS DEMOGRAPHIES AND THEIR CHOICE

The Democrats are not a homogeneous group and are made up of four constituencies. According to Pew figures for those that identify as moderates or Conservative the breakdown is as follows -  whites without College degrees 30%, whites with College degrees 16%, African Americans 22%, and Latinos 21%. Notwithstanding that breakdown the perception at the moment is that the landslide in 2018 is being attributed only to the African American, Hispanic and Republican suburban swing. In addition, not without justification the former two minority demographics are “sick and tired”, of being taken for granted by the DP and showed their frustration in 2016 by not turning out in full force. There is no breakdown of demographics of the about 50% of the Democrats who identify as liberal. 

That upcoming star of the DP Stacey Adams believes that identity politics are important for 2020 so how does that line up?

It would appear at the moment that demographically a woman, particularly of color, who is liberal is the ideal candidate. There is one already who is high up in the polls - Kamala Harris of California. If it is just a woman than there already three more, Elizabeth Warren, the most aggressive liberally or as Trump would put it “socialistically”, Kristin Gillibrand from New York, and Amy Klobuchar who is from the Midwest and is just left of center. 

If the accent is on candidates of color in addition to Harris there is firebrand Cory Brooker, Latino Julian Castro and not as yet declared Obama AG, Eric Holder.

For the “worker” the two figureheads of Warren and as yet undeclared Bernie standout. For experience, there is of course undeclared 76 year old former VP Joe Biden as the one characteristic that both the 44th and 45th POTUSES have exhibited is a lack of experience, mitigated in the former by advisors and totally unmitigated in the latter. 

Then there are those that believe that a successful Democrat in a red state is the right way to go and top of that list are Sherrod Brown and Amy Klobuchar with John Hippenlooper, (Colorado) and the inexperienced but charismatic Beto O’ Rourke making up a short list. Those who coming out strongly on this demographic obviously have their eyes on the fact that these candidates are the best antidote to another Trump success.

POLICIES NOT IDENTITIES SHOULD DICTATE

Stacie Adam’s identity comment was in response to the celebrated political scientist Francis Fukuyama who has argued that identity politics was killing American and global democracy. The arch exponent being Donald J. Trump who is an unashamed nationalist, (White) and has negative attitudes to anyone else. 

Fukuyama, a former neo - conservative and now the most vocal supporter of Liberal Western democracy, believes that identity politics are narrow and undermine freedom. He states that the emergence of identity per se as a defining factor has produced populist nationalism that morphs into the politics of race, religion, anti immigrant rhetoric and gross intolerance of freedom of speech. He claims that when the populists talk about “the people” they only are focussed on one group and are excluding all the others. 

Fukuyama has referenced the literature that defined the hopelessness of those that felt excluded and forgotten by the elites - those that Trump exploited and ostensibly identified with for his surprise victory. In truth they are the largest constituency in the center Democratic stable and  had more to do with the DP resurgence in the MidWestern states than any other demographic. Fukuyama calls for a national identity to supersede focusing only on one or the other group.

It is obvious that Ms. Adams, a probable presidential candidate herself in the not to distant future, has misperceived what Fukuyama meant. There is no way that in the Southern State of Georgia could she have come within 1.4% of being elected on the basis of being an African American woman. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

Jay H. Ell believes that name recognition, authenticity and identification with “We the People” will probably win the day. There are three candidates, all undeclared that will be in the final mix - Bernie Sanders, Beto O’ Rourke and Joe Biden. The former two have a major advantage over the latter in that both won’t accept a penny from interest groups. They both can command colossal crowds and are spellbinding orators in their own right. Joe Biden has the experience to right the ship and has all the credentials to satisfy most of the constituencies but with experience comes baggage. 

O’ Rourke if he stands and gets around the country will be hard to beat - he can appeal to every constituency - he stood up for black activist kneeling NFL player, Colin Kaepernick in Texas! He visited every county in Texas, which are overwhelmingly rural and Republican and heard everyone out. Policy wise he is on the same page as the overall party. O’ Rourke lives on the border and he is the ideal candidate to take Trump on on immigration, which he already has. It is if destiny took a hand when Trump kicked off his anti immigrant “Finish the Wall” campaign in El Paso of O’Rourke who immediately organized a competing meeting  - one that attracted a similar crowd.

Not out of it of course are Amy Klobuchar, Sherrod Brown, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, John Hippenlooper and the rest. An incredible field. 

And of course whoever wins, Trump will not fade away politely….. It will be immigration, make America white, the wall and back to the fifties, ala Joe McCarthy - “Better dead than Red!” All in the hope that the Midwest will return and forget the broken promises as would the defected, disgusted, nauseated Republicans. 

THE STATE OF TRUMP’S UNION

Trump, politically weakened perhaps even mortally, more than passed the test of sounding Presidential in the State of Union Address.  There is general skepticism whether or not anything that Trump could say mattered. Ironically the crowd who believe that most are the Republicans. In fact they find that the best way for them to defend him is to posit, “Don’t listen to what he says. Rather watch what he does”. 

The GOP legislators had to be relieved that he did not, for the moment, declare an Emergency in order to build his wall and or force another shutdown. His failure to do that has already angered the spokespersons of his base and they are out in full force. The POTUS has to hope that his flourishing rhetoric will more than compensate for this. The most glaringly jarring note of the evening was a warning against investigating him, threatening that no legislation can be effected should those inquiries continue. The Donald in effect claimed that the “investigations” were unpatriotic confirming his belief that he is the State.

The acid test of whetherTrump has become Presidential will be in what he subsequently tweets. Jay H. Ell is not holding his breath.  Meanwhile the fact checkers are negating a substantial number of his usual suspect claims.

THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS IN REAL TIME

Trump had spent his “executive time” in the morning smearing and trashing Pelosi, Schumer and the Democratic Congress but the reassuring message from the WhiteHouse was that was going to be a conciliatory State of Union speech - one of bipartisanship and so he began to the relief of the Republicans. The POTUS then transitioned into his great achievements which included denuding Obamacare, his tax breaks for the rich and cutting pollution and other regulations. America was an economic miracle, thanks to him. He triumphantly touted the bipartisan criminal reform act, which indeed was a major progressive step in the right direction. 

Trump then morphed his message into attacking “ridiculous partisan investigations” which could prevent American prosperity.  The POTUS stated, “If there is going to be peace and legislation there cannot war and investigation. It just doesn’t work that way. We must be united at home to defeat our adversaries abroad”. Trump still does not get it. The US Government is not Trump Inc that can be run like a mob family.

All this lead up to the “national emergency” at our Southern border with large organized caravans menacing the country. These were about invade as there was little border protection. This was an onslaught and threat to American security. He then gave the usual spiel which had got him nowhere to date replete with the usual factual inaccuracies. Even Vice President Pence began wincing. He would get the wall built, no longer concrete  -  “Walls work and walls save lives.” The terrified GOP legislators heaved a sigh of relief that he did not declare a National Emergency in order to build his wall and or force another shutdown. They would live to fight another day.

He then paid tribute to the women, especially the women elected to Congress.  Closely following were his “iffy” trade policies. Trump moved onto positive high bipartisan notes such as infrastructure, high prescription drug prices, price transparency in health care, the elimination of AIDS and childhood cancer and paid family leave. As some of these are old promises and as yet nothing has been done there was not too much excitement about this rhetoric.

Finally, he gave the base some red meat, other than immigration, and went onto condemn late term abortion and ended by justifying his foreign policy. Trump articulated a popular pro Jewish and Israeli policy - popular especially among his Evangelical base. The POTUS promised that America would never be a socialist country. Trump would not create any bipartisanship by lumping Bernie Sander’s socialism with that of Venezuela. 

DONALD’S STAGE IS THE STATE OF THE UNION

From the word go The Donald had made it clear that this was not the State of Union speech but rather a State of Trump moment. This was Trump theater at its best. The backdrop of the traditional pomp and ceremony were fitting props for his one man show. The great demagogue, the great reality star playing to a live audience televised to viewers, only second in magnitude to the Super Bowl, was what he was all about. No better venue to deliver his stieck. Most important, he really get’s juiced up when the crowd screams rah rah at every platitude, as half of them did.

 He had had one Presidential moment to date and that was last year’s State of the Union Address. This was his opportunity for the next one and his performance did not disappoint.   

TRUMP’S PLIGHT IN REAL TIME - THE STATE OF TRUMP’S UNION SUCKS

Trump, if he had any insight, would recognize that he was performing at a disadvantage. Nancy Pelosi had forced him to end the shut down with nothing to show for the chaos he had caused. In the process she forced him to postpone the State of The Union show as she controls the keys to the theatre - all this to polls indicating a cascading loss of approval. 

He had been put between a rock and a hard place between the Republican legislators and those spokespeople representing his base. The former had given him two days to reopen the Government or face a bipartisan motion to do so. The latter, including Anne Coulter and Rush Limbaugh went ballistic when he caved. 

Then the Republican legislators have censored him twice in the past month over foreign policy. He was told to stop supporting the carnage of his Saudi allies and rapped over the knuckles for unilaterally, on his own, just announcing that he was pulling the American troops out of Syria without providing for his allies the Kurds and Israelis.

Then of course there was the increasing legal jeopardy he was facing - yet another one initiated on the day - a case opened in connection with alleged illegalities related to his Inaugural Celebrations. Nobody knows where a gigantic $107 million came from or went.

Contemporaneously with Donald Trump’s second address to the Nation he celebrated his approximately 5th thousand tweet, 8,459 lies, and 175 days residing in one of his resorts during his Presidency. In addition he holds the record for doing the least work in a day of any President, has the greatest turn over in his administration and has more unfilled positions in the Federal Government since time immemorial. His Presidency has racked up a record number of indictments for campaign and administration members.

He also more than any other President has concentrated the least on the job at hand as reflected in the content of his tweets.

CONTENT OF TWEETS -  TRUMP’S POLICY STATEMENTS

While Franklyn Roosevelt communicated via “fireside chats” and John Kennedy mastered the art of Television to inform and connect with “the people”, Donald J. Trump, on average 7 times a day does so by using 140 characters or less in his twitter account - “sad!”

To date he has tweeted 362 times about “Fake News” so it shouldn’t surprise that he has made Sean Hannity and or Fox News the subject of 315 fawning outpourings. The “lying” CNN with 72, “the failing” New York Times with 71 and “the disgusting” NBC, 58, constitute most of his policy statements on the real Fake News. Thus not surprisingly he has spent about twenty precent of his Presidency discussing the state of the Media, who other than Fox News, are the “Enemy of the People”.

No less than on 452 occasions, (ten percent of tweets), have been devoted to his assessment of “The Russian Thing”, denying that there was any collusion with the Russians. This has decreased a bit with the recent rash of indictments and guilty pleas. It is fair to conclude that he still believes the Mueller Investigation is a “hoax” and “a witch hunt”. He has attributed its initiation and workings to a scheme orchestrated by Hillary Clinton, the Democrats and The Dark State who are all plotting a coup de etat.

His obsessive preoccupation with and belittling of his predecessor Barak Obama is manifested in 171 tweets and his hatred of “crooked” Hillary Clinton is the subject of over 200. Jay H. Ell supposes that it is only right to reassure the electorate of the disaster the electoral college rescued the country from by electing him instead of the winner of the popular vote, (His Press Secretary, Sarah Sanders has stated that it was G-d’s will). He has claimed the outcome of the 2016 Presidential elections as the greatest victory ever with the largest gathering on record to watch an inaugural address. As for Barak Obama, he needs to remind his adoring red capped following that he launched his political career claiming that his predecessor was born in Kenya. To show the lasting impact his campaign had, thirty percent of Americans still believe him. It does not take rocket science to realize that that represents nearly the whole of his base. 

LIES DAMNED LIES 

The number, 8459, of what euphemistically are called false and misleading statements in less than two years, forces Jay H. Ell to go out on a limb by prophesying that that is a score that will never ever be beaten. For this historic achievement Trump will be remembered forever. 

The mendacious behavior was at its best, (worst?), in the October month before the midterms when the “lying” CNN reported that he was responsible for 1104 statements that were “untrue”. This was double the number of the previous “misstatements” the month before in September. This obviously reflected his anxiety of what his advisors were telling him, namely that he was about to receive a massive of vote of no confidence in the forthcoming elections. During that period he created a record that will stand for a long long time, 83 lies on October 22, 2018. This  occurred while addressing a crowd in Texas in support of the candidature of Senator Ted Cruz, whose father you might remember was involved in the Kennedy assassination. 

The most recent whoppers are centered around illegal immigration and include repeated “inaccurate” statistics as to the claims that Texas is a crime hub with the perpetrators being illegal immigrants. El Paso law enforcement are particularly livid that he authoritatively asserts that a wall has magically turned their city from criminal chaos into the Garden of Eden. His repeated assertion that 60 percent of women seeking asylum in the USA are raped in Mexico is unmitigated garbage. He has argued that this year alone illegal immigration has cost nearly 19 billion dollars and in one day alone the expenditure was over 603 million dollars - all untrue. Then he has upped the official number of “illegals” in the country from 11 million to 25 million.

When confronted with his “deceptions” he told ABC Anchor Jon Karl that, “I do try. I always want to tell the truth”.   However he told America how he really felt about those who report his inexactitudes. Speaking at one of his Nuremberg style rallies in July 2018 in Kansas, he pointed at the media and screamed, “Stick with us. Don’t believe the crap you see from these people, the fake news. What your’e seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening”. It should be salutary to Trump to note that the long time red Kansas Governorship turned blue under his watch. 

THE UNIMPEACHABLE PRESIDENT

Trump’s mastery of the Constitution like everything else is better than everybody else. He once again “reassured” the nation stating that it was impossible for him to be impeached. His argument was that he was such a successful President that how could they impeach him? You could only be impeached for High Crimes and Misdemeanors and by Trump’s definition the greatest President, could not commit those transgressions.  In the next sentence Trump then claimed that the only reason the Democrats would impeach him as they can’t beat him in 2020. 

THE “UNUSUAL’ PRESIDENT.

The New York Times with customary restraint called Trump’s behavior of contradicting and belittling his entire intelligence establishment and their carefully researched report, “unusual”. Trump tweeted that they were “wrong” and “should go back to school”.

What the Trump appointed Intelligence Chiefs including National Intelligence Director,Dan Coats, CIA Director, Gina Haspel and FBI Director, Christopher Wray researched and learned did not jive with the Commander in Chief. The relationship had nosedived when he humiliated the Intelligence Establishment by publicly supporting Putin’s “strong” denial over the unanimous Intelligence conclusion that Russia had interfered in the 2016 Presidential election.

So Trump claimed that he had sorted out the North Korean nuclear threat while his Intelligence claimed that there was no way that Kim Jong In would give up his nuclear arsenal as his government regards that as crucial to their survival. As far as Trump’s boast that he had eliminated ISIS the professionals said they remained a massive threat as there were thousands that are mingling with the crowd. The POTUS did not take kindly to the Intelligence that Iran was still sticking to the nuclear deal while cooperating with the other signatories to the pact and was not attempting to build nuclear capability. Trump’s gut was better than the whole Intelligence establishment.

This attacking of the 81 billion dollar Intelligence operation because it contradicts his simplistic foreign policy will not wash. In addition this has resulted in a rash of leaks about his "willful ignorance” on security issues. Trump’s vendetta against his own appointed intelligence chiefs is unprecedented and even insane. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The fact is that at the end of the day this was vintage Trump - superb delivery, excellent rhetoric, threats, red meat to the base and plenty of factual inaccuracies, particularly over the wall. This command performance will push up Trump’s poll numbers to over 40% by bringing back some of the base that had defected. However the speech will not have won back a single independent. 

Most importantly his address did not resolve the funding of the wall. In one week America can be facing another shut down or national emergency and then Trump could be facing bipartisan censure. Nor does he feel the pain of those who went through hell with no money for two pay periods. One wonders what it will take for those who believe that Obama was born in Kenya to abandon him. 

What would normally have been the major talking point of the evening - Trump’s failure to give the incoming Speaker his congratulations and then not allowing her to introduce him - passed unnoticed. The smallness and pettiness of the POTUS is so taken for granted that it does not elicit comment, even from the “fake News”. 

The biggest danger of Trumpism is in the security of this country. His combined security apparatus have rated Russia as the greatest threat to American democracy. As that finding doesn’t fit into his assessment of the world - tough luck. Lest it is forgotten, the FBI in May 2017 launched a counter intelligence investigation into whether the President of the United States of America, Donald J. Trump, was a witting or unwitting Russian agent. 

The inescapable conclusion is that the state of Trump’s Union sucks. A fact that may well be expanded upon as the Democratic Congress ignores his threat and begins to investigate every aspect of his businesses, campaign and Presidency.

ISRAEL'S BIBI IN LEGAL JEOPARDY AS CHANGE LOOMS

Israel celebrated its seventieth anniversary having established itself as a modern day miracle in the Middle East. However, accompanying this economic and geopolitical success, stark impasses still loom large threatening the peaceful future of the Israeli State. There have also  been a rising cost of living with a failure of key services such as education and health. With the divide between the secular and the religious still simmering, the difficulty of integrating the Jews from the West and East is ever present and the realization that, in government, the age of Zionist idealism has been sullied with corruption charges. 

The two key unresolved issues - integration of their own non Jewish citizens and a settlement with the Palestinians still await solution. The latter problem has defied healing as both sides still have to come to the full realization that neither the Israelis or Palestinians are going to go away. Atop of these burning concerns is the existential threat of survival that so permanently hangs over Israel namely Iranian hatred with threats of annihilation and the terrorist incursions of Hamas and Hezbollah.

The past decade has seen stagnation on the internal Israeli political front which has been wracked by scandal. This in spite of a strengthening of their geopolitical status. However the cumbersome Israeli political system allows for rebirth and rejuvenation and hope abounds with the emergence of a new political party Hosen L’ Yisrael, (Resilience Party), which has already captured the imagination of the electorate.

CURRENT EVENTS PERTAINING TO ISRAEL

There was a coming together of secular, religious and political input this last month on the crises facing Israel. The death of Israel’s Shakespeare, prophet and peace advocate, Amos Oz saddened the world that had been spellbound by his prose, intellectual honesty, peace narrative and fierce Zionism. However in the flood of tributes to Oz his activism, optimism and love of Israel were revisited. Then the religious were quick to point that the current Book of the Torah that is being read is Exodus which relates to the Birth of Israel as a nation. Former Chief Rabbi Jonathan Sacks has written extensively as to the connection between the Torah and modern day dilemmas and his commentary on all of this is instructive to believers.

But from an Israeli political point of view the nightmare of the investigation into Prime Minister Netanyahu was to be ended one way or another by a decision from the Attorney General as to whether to indict the Premier or not. Whatever the outcome for Bibi the sands of time are running out for the teflon Premier. Serendipitously, the stale political divisive logjam was broken by the entry into the political arena of a charismatic former Israeli Chief of Staff, General Bennie Gantz, leader of the newly established political party, Hosen L’ Yisrael, (Resilience Party).

AMOS OZ

Amos Oz told a remarkable story in more ways than one. He was born in Palestine. His parents had fled, in the thirties, from anti semitic Poland, not because the destination was the family’s first choice but rather because no other country would have the Jews. The family even applied for citizenship in Germany and were refused. He was also quick to remind that the cry of the anti semites in those days was that “Jews should go to Palestine” and now it is “Jews get out of Palestine”. 

Like all writers true to his craft he was fiercely honest, paid attention to detail and had a deep intuitive insight into psychology, a feature of so many of the great writers. His ability to tell a story made him one of the most celebrated writers of the last century. His works were translated into forty - five languages and made him a winner of endless literary prizes except one - the Nobel Prize for Literature, which apparently he had been nominated for again and again.

 He took all these literary attributes into his activism activities. 

Oz was a founder member of the “Peace Now” Movement in 1978 which followed on Anwar Sadat’s visit to Israel. “Peace Now” was the first major body to advocate a two state solution. He was close friends with Yitzhak Rabin the Nobel Peace Prize Winning Israeli Premier conversing with him on a weekly basis. He had quipped that he never ever voted for him which was illustrative of his fiercely independent streak. He supported Israeli defensive action when he felt appropriate such as the initiation of the Lebanon war and the building of a wall to stop the daily incursions of suicide bombers who murdered thousands of his fellow citizens. 

On the other hand he pertinently pointed out that you cannot have an occupation force that does not become corrupt, being empathic to the daily lot of the average Palestinian. Like the prophets of old this non believer spoke truth to power. 

His take on the Palestinian dispute was practical. He saw the carving up of the Middle East and its subsequent chaos as a result of the parent colonial forces - reminding that his first activism was to tell the British “to go home” during their Palestinian Mandate. He felt that the two siblings of the callous “parents” vented their anger on each other rather than the parents that had caused their pain. 

Interestingly the sibling rivalry concept was a theme developed on a religious level by former Chief Rabbi Jonathan Sacks in his book “Not in God’s Name - Confronting Religious Violence”. Sacks argued that the psychological basis of the dispute was sibling rivalry. Both founders of the religion were sons of Abraham, Isaac and Ishmael. The dispute was as to who was the legitimate heir. The Rabbi quoted biblical texts as to how the two half brothers became close in later life and believed that this could be the basis of future understanding and eventually cooperation. Oz made it quite clear that he didn’t believe that religion was the root cause but rather “real estate”. 

At the end of the day the Israeli poet laureate maintained that the Israeli/Palestinian conflict would grudgingly be ended with a two Party State solution. 

RABBI SACKS AND ISRAEL’S CURRENT DILEMMAS

Rabbi Sacks, the internationally recognized theologian and proponent of inter religious cooperation has commented extensively on Exodus which relates to the Birth of Israel as a nation. This includes that the Jewish nation was instructed to be a nation of laws, morality and covenants. As he writes, two of the themes in this last week’s portion of the Torah relate to helping your enemy, when he is in distress, and love of the stranger. The argument as to the former injunction is that your enemy is also a fellow human being and if he needs help assist him. Also there is a hope that this behavior will help overcome estrangement and ill feeling between the rivaling parties. As to the “law”, love of the stranger, it is a motif that runs through the Torah being mentioned, in several ways. no fewer than thirty - two times. “Do not oppress the stranger; you ourselves know how it feels to be a stranger because you were a stranger in Egypt” and “Do not ill - treat a stranger” are but two examples of the cardinal directive.

Sacks, to the frustration of some of his supporters, refuses to venture into the political arena and make the obvious connections with his own interpretations of the biblical texts to current events. However, in a recent address to the Barilanun University in Israel, he called, in effect, for the creation for a new political/philosophical paradigm in Israel. This would need the cooperation of the Universities with the different institutional entities in Israel. He maintained that Jewish tradition and philosophy had much to contribute to a “New Jewish Thought”. Jewish intellectuals had always been reactive to other thinkers and philosophers as they never had a state of their own. Now they had their own nation and could put into effect a unique political system. 

Sacks contended that historically there were connections in the Hebrew Bible with the Enlightenment theories on morality - Kant, (law and categorical imperative), Hume, (emotions) and Bentham, (actions that would benefit the most). He argued that Kant's morality of law and reason could be aligned with the biblical priests' area of action, the Humian philosophy of feelings and sentiments to the rationale of the Prophets and that the basis of Benthamian morality, being centered on doing the best for the most, was the job definition of the biblical kings. He made it quite clear as to which morality he would defer to - Hume and the Prophets, so as to speak truth to power. 

The former Chief Rabbi also alluded to the fact that President Rivlin had recognized the need to integrate the four minority groups, twenty percent of the population of Israel, into society with equal rights and resources. While the latter were full citizens they did not enjoy the same benefits as the Jewish Israelis.

 In an unrelated talk sponsored by the Templeton Foundation the Rabbi was deeply critical of the fact that Israel’s clergy were active in the politics of the country.

GENERAL BENNY GANTZ LEADER OF THE NEW HOSEN L’YISRAEL, (RESILIENCE) PARTY

The entrance of General Gantz into the political arena is indicative of two characteristics of Israel’s civics -   Generals as Prime Ministers and the regular sprouting up of new political parties in Israel. With regard to the former it is not unsurprising that those from the armed forces are held in high regard. Israel has been under constant threat since its inception. Every Israeli citizen is conscripted into the army for two years. It is also the Generals, usually the Chiefs of Staff of the Israeli Defense Force, that have been in the forefront of nearly all of the abortive peace processes with the Palestinians. Rabin, Peres and Barack coming from right wing political positions sacrificed their political careers in trying to realise a two state vision. Rabin paid with his life for his troubles. With the current dissolusionment of the populace Gantz has picked the right time to enter into the political arena.

Like all politicians he tries to be all things to all people but he identifies with the despondency of the citizens which they attribute to cronyism causing the high cost of living, health care inadequacies, lack of educational opportunity and the astronomical rise in real estate. While Gantz is no flaming liberal his appeal to drain the Israeli swamp has a receptive audience. To those in America his attack on the divisive nature of the current administration and their criticism of the judicial, cultural, defense and media institutions rings a familiar tone. He criticizes the authoritarianism of Netanyahu who he claims is not a “King” and attacks the latter’s assertion that he could run in an election if he is indicted. by the Attorney General 

On the cultural and religious issues such as who can pray at the Wall he is answering the disenchantment the second largest Jewish Community in the world, the American Conservative and Reform movements, who are resentful at the snub the Netanyahu Israeli government has inflicted upon them by not allowing them to pray at the Western Wall, in a manner consistent with their own traditions. For the local Israeli populations travel on the sabbath will be decided regionally, the covenant of “couplehood” would be respected as would be “gays. His election platform sounded like a manifesto for the MeToo movement as well as for the equality for women everywhere. 

His cultural mantra is in sync with the emerging generations and his tentative moves to accommodate the secular lines him up against the hard line ultra religious Haredi who are causing resentment by refusing to go to the army.

While Gantz makes it quite clear that he will brook no aggression and will hang onto every piece of ground that defines modern day Israel, he will seek peace. He invokes the heroism of “Israeli Patriot”, Begin, Rabin “of blessed memory”, and even Netanyahu, for their guts in seeking peace at one time or another. The Former IDF Chief promises that he will give humanitarian aid to Gaza as well. With regard to the other hot intergroup issue Gantz has this to add, “Israel is a State of the Jewish people, all of whose citizens are equal. 

The General stakes his claim to the moral high ground , juxtaposing his life with those in the Administration with their morass of indictments and accusations of corruption, “I have always kept my hands clean. I owe nothing to anyone but my people. I will neither support nor will I close my eyes in the face of any violation of moral standards.”

THE RESPONSE TO THE FORMATION OF THE RESILIENCE PARTY

Within a day of Gantz launching his new party there has been an outpouring of support and for the first time in a decade Netanyahu’s firm hold of the Government is slipping. Not unexpectedly there is no rightwing swing to the Reslience Party. The polls are already predicting that if he forms an alliance with the centrist left party of Yair Lapid this coalition could have the highest number of Knesset seats. Lapid formed his party six years ago illustrating the fluidity of Israeli politics. So far Lapid, a charismatic leader in his own right, is not budging as he sees himself as the inheritor of the mantle of premiership. However that is not the way the polls forecast it. 

It is early days in Israeli electioneering as there are two and a half months to go before poll day. Benny Gantz’s position can only grow as his bona fides are water tight. Israel’s understandable love affair with their military leadership will be to the benefit of the new Resilience Party. The cost of living and inequity have soared in the Holy Land and there will be no sleeping easy till the internal issue of equality and the external dilemma of a two party state has been settled. On the latter issues there has been a serendipitous coming together of  secular, religious and political thought. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

One thing is for sure the Israelis are there to stay and after seventy years, baring some miracle solution, so are the Palestinians.