PUTIN, THE TRUMP PROJECT AND MAKE AGAIN RUSSIA GREAT, (MARG).

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia and a few of his inner circle sat down at the monthly meeting where the status of “The Trump Project” was being accessed. At this gathering were four of his closest confidants - Igor Sechin, Gennady Timchenko, Dmitry Medvedev and Vladislav Surkov. The latter was currently Putin’s closest confidant, while the former three had been with him since the beginning, in Saint Petersburg. It was in that historical city, in the early 1990’s, where they had all learned how to manipulate the trappings of power and in the process to corruptly accumulate wealth. 

 In the shadow of the disintegration of the Soviet Union they dreamed of returning what was left of the old USSR to its  glory. To coin a phrase the former administrators of the historical town wanted to lead the Make Again Russia Great, (MARG), movement. With the parlous economic state of what was left of the USSR the obvious path to MARG was to weaken America and the Western alliance it led. Donald J. Trump becoming the President of the USA would present Vladimir Putin with the miracle they prayed for and so the “Trump Project”was born.  

THE INNER CIRCLE AND THE TRUMP PROJECT

There were many more that made up those who cloistered with the forever secretive cagey cautious former KGB operative but he rarely held this Indaba with the same company.  All of the inner circle had unique characteristics. They were all billionaires being some of the favored loyal few to benefit from the failure of the Communist State to share the means of production with the proletariat. The profit from the fruits of production was now in their hands and the long suffering proletariat would have to wait for another day to get their share.

They all owed their wealth to Putin with whom they reputedly divied their bounty, making the former Secret Service operative the richest man in the world. They all knew that  their political and financial status depended on their blind loyalty to their leader. They labored under no illusion, that in spite of their decades long comradeship, that he had thick files of “kompromat” on them, which could be utilized at the slightest deviance from the Putin Party line. 

They also all shared one major problem - their billions were meaningless to them if they could only be used in “Mother Russia”. There was a limit to the number of dachas one could buy. And therein lay the problem. The Obama government had seen to it that not only was Russia sanctioned but also their banks, (which Putin controlled) and their oligarchs, (whom Putin controlled). How could they get their billions out and safe into the Western world so they could participate in global capitlaiism? Well there were many ways including purchasing real estate but life had become almost impossible with sanctions. 

“The Trump Project” was designed to MARG while allowing Putin and his oligarchs to become global billionaires. 

TRUMP AND PUTIN - A QUID PRO QU0

In spite of the fact that The President of America, formerly Russia’s nemesis and the leader of the most powerful country in the world, was, to put it politely, “favorable” to the goal that those present aspired to - a feat that only Hollywood could have imagined - there was an air of gloom. The security reports on the unravelling of their operation was presented to the meeting. Putin had to concede that in spite of all their knowledge of the culture, political system and the workings of the United States no one could ever imagined that the consequences of their success would be as devastating as the very Project itself. There had been so many ostensibly unrelated components to their Project such as the extensive social media operation, Wikileaks, the many diverse personnel that they infiltrated and the focus on organizations and events to influence and launder money through. Through extensive research they had read the mood of the country right as the social internet contributions had illustrated. Now all was embarrassingly catalogued in memoranda before the American Congress, indictments by Mueller and media reports. Putin had even taken credit, privately of course, for the Republican legislative victories. They had done their bit to try and discredit the Special Counsel but with all their efforts the position of Russia in America was worsening. 

Trump for his part believed he was still true to his commitment. Starting at the nominating convention the sanctions on Russia were watered down and throughout the campaign he had argued that, “Being friends with Russia was not a bad thing”. The POTUS had after all publicly disagreed with his whole intelligence and security establishment at the international forum in Helsinki and even held an off the floor meeting with Vlad at the G20. His latest announced move to pull his troops out of Syria, leaving the Middle East to Russian influence was very helpful to say the least. (Trump didn’t seem to mind that in the process he could be selling out his sworn ally, Israel). The motive Putin attributed to Trump’s touching commitment to the deal was he was terrified that he would release Russia’s “kompramat”.

However what had happened within America with “The Project" and more fearfully what was about to happen as Mueller puts more and more pieces of the puzzle together would only worsen the situation. The fact was that the only issue that was fully bipartisan in the Senate was that Russia had declared war on America’s democracy by interfering in its Holy Grail - The Presidential Election. In addition the fact that the Democrats could now pursue everything and anything relating to the Trump Project, bothered Putin the most. As each revelation was laid out the antipathy against Putin and his Russia grew stronger and stronger.

PUTIN THINKS OUT ALOUD

“The man is unstable, an idiot”, the Soviet Tzar fumed. “It does not say much for this great big democracy that the man they elected President had been openly flaunting the law for decades and got away with it only to be caught once he became President”. The circle nodded in agreement. 

Putin ranted on, “His world is falling apart and he starts a fight which can only weaken him even further over a f…..ing stupid wall that means nothing. Then as for pulling out of Syria he should know better than me that if there are so many parts to his insane system of government he should have at least pretended to have consulted them first. Now his Minister of Defense who has great support among the Republicans resigns saying he differs with him over Russia. To antagonize his hawks even more he wants to pull out of Afghanistan. The Republicans whom he was supposed to win over on allying with Russia are furious. As the Americans might say, ‘Go figure’”.

More shaking of heads of those assembled as they echoed Putin’s disbelief. 

Putin was far from finished, “Then can you believe it a moron of a Judge can make a fool of him and his whole propaganda machine by forcing his former National Security Advisor to admit that the Mueller FBI didn’t entrap him. Then there is no control whatsoever by this genius over what is dead secret - the deal to build a Trump Tower in Moscow and the offer to give me a penthouse. It is out there for the world to see. How? Why? He and his dimwit of a lawyer get exposed illegally paying off two women he had affairs with and that brings the house tumbling on his head. Are they all mad? There is no loyalty to that man. His own media blurb leaks as to how he feels and what he is thinking on any given day. He appointed a cretin as Head of the Federal Reserve who is pushing his economy into recession. Then even I know that the shutting of the American Government has deleterious effects on the Administration and he publicly says that he owns the closure. Maybe I should send him copies of our analyses of the American political mind?”

Putin looks down at the pile of reports in front of him. The whole saga is in those files from the beginning to the end. Even the details of Trump’s visits to Moscow that he, Putin, had denied existed. He fingers the latest summaries of what is out there, what is not as yet public and assessments of the damage that all these exposures might incur. 

He breaks the silence by barking out, “Who sanctioned that Butina woman’s enterprise”. There is a fearful stillness as no one could imagine that it could have happened without Putin’s say so. “They obviously have influenced her more than she them. She is about to sing like a canary. Who could have believed her cover story anyway that she was into gun rights. Any fool knows that Russian citizens have no gun rights. What amazes me is that with all her stupidity she got as far she got in the most powerful country in the world”. The tension is slightly relieved, maybe the President didn’t know about this wild escapade.

 “It is out of control”, he concludes. 

 THEY ALL THINK SILENTLY?

There is an uncomfortable lull which not even the closest confidant is prepared to puncture. No one is very happy to be at this post mortem. What had they done to deserve this unpleasant honor? 

What was becoming more and more patently obvious was that as each and every day that passed the chances of sanctions being lifted were becoming more and more remote. They could have been better off with Hillary. She would have just ranted on about human rights, Crimea, Ukraine and the like. They could have done a deal. Maybe? Now anyone who was anyone was not only sanctioned they were being indicted and they dare not travel. And it was going to get worse.

Perhaps they should just finish it off and leak what else they have on Trump? How would that help? They would just have to leave it to Trump to self destruct. They would never understand fully how America worked. Some Presidents seem to have all the power in the world and this one cannot even get money to build a wall. 

Meanwhile there are the problems back home. There is just no Russian economy beyond oil and gas and the bottom was falling out of the oil market. And while the Russians had no history of democracy they certainly had one of revolutions. They looked uneasily at one another. Suddenly the great triumphs of the Trump Project, NATO wobbling and Europe arguing didn’t seem so important now - MARG was becoming a more and more distant reality. 

Putin had thought he had so much in common with Trump. They had both understood that amassing wealth as part of political leadership was an innate right. They both traded on fear. The only problem was no one seemed scared of Trump - not the media, commerce, the Justice Department, the Judiciary and now even some of his own legislators.

 Putin wondered whether if he was down and out his inner circle would sell out on him as they had Trump? Not as easily he reassured himself as unlike Trump he had “looked after” his guys, they all were very comfortable. He was in complete charge of Russia while Trump the buffoon thought his immediate hold on power lay on whether he could build a wall or not.

It was left to Putin to break the day dreaming, “ Any suggestions as to what we should do now?” he enquired. Not surprisingly no one had anything to offer. 

THE HOPE AND THE FEAR

Putin concluded, “Who knows maybe Trump can stop Mueller and get one of his latest appointments to fire him and bury his report. His acting Attorney General has defied the Ethics Committee and will involve himself in the Special Counsel’s probe while Trump’s nominee for the full time job has written a twenty page memorandum attacking the Mueller investigation”.

Medvedev piped up, “Then why are we worried?”.

The cagey stalwart boss wearily ended, “If what we have seen and if our analyses are anything to go by the President will not stop the revelations between him and us. The upshot is that we will be worse off than when we started. The Russian intervention would unify Congress. Trump would be lucky to survive and Congress, one way or another, will rally around the Defense Secretary’s global vision of America, its commitment to its allies and its leadership of NATO which contains most of the old USSR. Maybe Trump should study the Nixon interlude as well as we have."

MARG will just have to be on hold for the movement and all that money will just have to earn interest in Russian roubles.  It could have been worse. At least they had no one to answer to.

LEGISLATING DEMOCRATS IN THE WORLD OF TRUMP

It wouldn’t be hyperbole to argue that the walls are collapsing around the Trump Criminal Enterprise which now includes the Presidency of the United States. Nor is it an exaggeration to contend that the Republican Party that he represents, in its pathetic desperate desire to cling to power, has lost its moral compass. Almost by default this will result in the baton of constructive government, in the 116th Congress passing onto the opposition Democratic Party who now control the main legislative chamber, The House of Representatives. The Democrats should be extremely careful and responsible in using the opportunity to institute reform and reset the country’s direction. The temptation to concentrate on Trump and their own Presidential nomination race must be avoided and not take preference over the legislative imperatives. 

Those who wield power need to take into account that the planet is facing problems such as climate change, widening disparities between the rich and the poor which together with crime and civil unrest is resulting in mass emigration, the terrifying burgeoning internet and artificial intelligence operation, nuclear proliferation and balancing the increasing trade across the globe creating interdependency beween countries. All these dilemmas cannot be resolved nation by nation but only by global cooperation. America as the richest and most powerful nation in the world must resume its leadership on these pressing issues as well as being the standard bearer for democratic values. The Democratic Party needs to press the reset button in this endeavor. 

Overhanging the 116th Congress will be the President and his Administration’s legal woes with the threat of impeachment which will hinge on the revelations of the Mueller report. The Democratic leadership have wisely, for the time being, taken the political removal of the POTUS off the table. While investigation of Trump and his family will proceed the immediate priorities will be Immigration, health care issues, infrastructure, all of which are possible areas for bipartisanship. It is imagined that the Democrats will push for “Medicare For All” legislation but at the end of the day they might have to settle for drug pricing regulations, protection of those with preexisting conditions and reaffirming the provisions of Obamacare.  

THE TASK TO RIGHT THE SHIP WILL BE HARD BUT THERE IS SOME LIGHT

All in all effecting legislation with control of only one chamber is a tall order that cannot be undertaken by a business as usual approach which a cynical, disheartened and disinterested electorate has come to expect. The task to right the ship is that much harder in America as there is a separation of the power structures. Thus to achieve lasting progress bipartisanship is required. The advent of the Trump Presidency with the slavish adherence of the Republican Party to go along with his venal, amoral and, dare Jay H. Ell say, anti American enterprise has made cooperation between the parties that much more difficult. 

Understandably there will be a temptation to deepen the partisan divide that Senate leader McConnell unashamedly effected to rush through the Trump judicial agenda. The Democrats could then claim that they tried to deliver but were stymied by the GOP who defied the will of the people. But that will just exacerbate the current dysfunction and lead the hopeful electorate that ushered in the diverse Congress to stay home in 2020.

The objective is to find common ground. This task is paramount for the future as well as the likelihood of the Democrats having a meaningful majority in the Senate under  current constitutional provisions is remote.  Gridlock has the potential to always be the default position as the Republicans, even with an ever decreasing share of the electorate, will always have a say as long as Wyoming with a population of 600,000 and California with 40,000,000 have an equal number of Senators. So even after 2020 the Senate will only have a small majority for one or other party.

Nevertheless the midterms have afforded the Democrats plenty of leverage. Put another way no legislation can see the light of day without them. For example Trump needs them to ratify his Trade agreements. Also a reasonable bipartisan immigration act was dead on arrival in the 115th Congress because the Republicans in the House of Representatives refused the Senate compromise is now an option. The Senate passed a bipartisan deal which Paul Ryan refused to bring to the floor because he couldn’t get a majority of his caucus to go along with it. Then there is the ailing infrastructure which Trump and the Democrats are ad idem on. Pelosi however will want to couple that with an increase in income tax on the top one percent to pay for it.

The Republican initiative to ditch Obamacare has finally had success insofar as twenty Republican State Attorney Generals have succeeded in persuading a Federal Court that the Obamacare health care act is unconstitutional. However the GOP lead by Trump, confronted by the electorate’s strong support for Obamacare in the midterms, switched positions arguing that they were best positioned to protect the act. Trump on hearing the court decision tweeted that Obamacare will remain in place while this decision is appealed. All this portends to the enactment of legislation that will entrench the right for access to all for healthcare - something the 115th Republican Congress would never have allowed. 

NEW DEMOCRATIC LEGISLATORS

The new diverse class of Democrats are highly motivated and sincere in their commitment at reforming government and meeting their constituencies' needs. For the most part they won Primaries and then ousted Republican incumbents. They need to be supported and nourished as they are soon to learn the hierarchical nature of politics and its frustrations. They can easily become disillusioned as they make the transition from being front and central in a local election to just one of four hundred and thirty -  five members of Congress on the national scene. They have already come to terms with the reality that Nancy Pelosi is the best leader in the current circumstances but have obtained the concession that she has put a four year limit on her reign. Pelosi has the moxey to realize that the future lies with the new diverse Congress representatives and that they must not be taken for granted. Pelosi has the responsibility to see to it that her Party does not use up its political capitol on internecine squabbles akin to the Republican Party’s Freedom Caucus which so exasperated Paul Ryan.  

THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION PROCESS

The newly energized Democratic Party has spawned several talented Presidential contenders. The rush is predicated by the belief that Trump either won’t be on the ballot and if he is he is mortally wounded. As many as twenty - five candidates are said to be ready to throw their hats into the ring. Broadly speaking there are two main sectors - the established Democrats and the newer, usually more diverse, contestants. There are several women candidates ready to finally break the glass ceiling. 

If one looks at the establishment the front runners are former Vice President Joe Biden, socialist democrat Bernie Sanders and the forceful eloquent activist Elizabeth Warren. All three are over seventy years and while none would let the side down they are tainted by being associated with one or other wing of the Democratic establishment and are as such, fairly or unfairly, regarded as polarizing. Then there are a bunch of charismatic and or solid Senators such as Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and Kamilla Harris. Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown is a persuasive favorite amongst the Senate group having trounced his Republican opposition in a crucial MidWest State that voted in a Republican Governor in the same election. Julian Castro a high profile Latino and former Obama cabinet minister has already created a Presidential exploratory committee and has strong claims as well. 

Jay H. Ell is more persuaded that two of the amazing 2018 Democratic wunderkinder would capture the mood of an electorate who are yearning for a fresh approach to the country’s swampy legislative morass. Although both Beto O’Rourke and Stacey Adams lost their races in deep red Southern States they were highly competitive and cut deeply into Republican majorities. What was so impressive in their candidacies was they did not compromise in their rhetoric to pander to the conservative electorates. They both worked night and day scouring their states engaging and respecting all and sundry in discourse.  While both are young and have long careers ahead of them moments in politics come and go and sometimes never return. Stacey Adams is a minority candidate and of course a woman while Beto O’Rourke is a white male. not exactly the ideal demographic choice for the Democrats at the moment. However both will ignite the country and the two would make an incredible presidential ticket. Jay H. Ell has a preference for Beto as he has remained in the public eye and is on the border not shying away from weighing in on the tragedy that is manifesting as a result of a cruel ill thought rudderless approach which is more tailored to satisfy the base rather than providing a solution to this perenial problem. He has a Kennedyesque and Obama feel about him and he drew the biggest audience of the midterms, 50, 000, which was way above anything Trump even fantasized. 

Whichever way this is looked at the Democratic Party have an embarrassment of riches. Hopefully in the fight for the nomination they well all remain positive and not detract from the legislative agenda of the Democratic House. They should also stick to the midterm narrative of focusing on policy and leave the smut to Trump or the dilemma another Republican candidate will have to face as to whether to be a Trump clone or distance him or herself from him.

ISSUES AND THE ROLE OF LEGISLATIVE COMMITTEES 

Committee work in both the Senate and the House of Representatives is the method whereby rhetoric is translated into action. The Democrats obviously are going to use the House to exert their oversight and legislative agendas. There is very little doubt that oversight will include Trump, his family, campaign and related matters. To this end there will be subpoenas for witnesses and documents. Trump’s income tax returns have been publicly mooted as a subject for the House Ways and Means Committee. However it is more likely that the House Judiciary Committee under the new stable leadership of Jerry Nadler will be dealing with the area of the Mueller investigation. Nadler has made it perfectly clear that there is a high bar to initiate impeachment proceedings and that he regards the mid term election issues the top priority. 

Other health care issues, particularly public health care legislation in areas such as maternal mortality, rural health care, value based care models and the opiate epidemic are important to both sides of the aisle. Drug pricing is one controversy that is in the forefront of priorities and the President himself has weighed in on the outrage of the off the chart prices for medicines .

Business and corporations are likely to have a rougher time in the House and more focus on labor and regulations can be expected in all the relevant committees. While there probably is not enough consensus to increase regulations  those in place will now be safe. Particularly the Dodd/Frank legislation will remain untouched and continue to place some shackles on unbridled corporate financial malfeasance. 

Climate change can well become a central focus now that the House Energy and Commerce Committee is under the control of the Democrats. This was a key issue in the election. California forest fires will be a locus of the debate and there will be a procession of experts linking the increase of natural disasters to the man made warming green house gasses. Trump's offshore drilling initiative, which is opposed by the relevant States, mainly Republican controlled, oil and gas generally, safe water and renewable energy will once again be brought into the public arena. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Democratic Party have taken a giant step in returning America to its values of a liberal democracy as outlined by the Founding Fathers. Also they are on the right side of the issues, such as climate change, that threaten the planet. Even with only control of one arm of government they have an opportunity to improve the lot of Americans. 

Ultimately the impact a Democratic Government will have on the world would be to deal a mortal blow to the inward looking nativistic populist movements that have bedeviled the planet this past decade. Nations on their own have no hope of solving the global crises facing the planet. 

TRUMP AND THE DEMOCRATS’ IMPEACHMENT DILEMMA

As the 116th Congress is poised to come into being the central issue hanging over the proceedings like a crescendering storm cloud is the pressure on the Democrats to begin impeachment proceedings against Donald J. Trump. While the temptation has to be irresistible the exercise will not, in the current climate, lead to the removal of the President. Notwithstanding the recent court submissions which provided much evidence of Trump and his campaign wrongdoing the Democrats would have to impeach Trump on a partisan basis only to see him acquitted in the Senate on a likewise partisan vote. The two felonies that virtually indicted him as a coconspirator will not be enough to seal his fate. In order to obtain bipartisan legislative support as well as overall societal consensus there will have to be conclusive proof to the already overwhelming circumstantial case that Trump and his campaign conspired with a foreign power to subvert the American Constitution.

STATUS OF TRUMP INVESTIGATION AS OF EARLY DECEMBER 2018

The sensational revelations in the redacted court submissions of Trump’s former National Security Advisor, lawyer and campaign manager have made it abundantly clear that President Trump has committed felonies. In addition the mosaic of evidence available is pointing more and more to the fact that there had to be “collusion” between the Trump campaign and Russia and that the then future POTUS blatantly lied to the American people as to his financial motive as to his otherwise inexplicable support of Putin’s Russia. In addition, the stark conclusion emerging is that the circumstantial evidence points to a quid pro quo that in return for Russian intervention in favor of Trump the crippling Obama sanctions would be lifted. While Trump, his ever diminishing inner circle and Fox News are tweeting and broadcasting from the bunker that “the witch hunt” continues and that the court submissions exonerate him, the stark reality points to the opposite with far far worse to come. 

THE DEMOCRAT’S QUANDARY

Ironically, for the moment, the current situation creates the greatest political dilemma for the Democrats in the House of Representatives who are fresh off a forty seat tsunami seat pick up and therefore in control of all the Committees that can expose every aspect of Trump’s life long criminal enterprise. The reason for their quandary is that they are being pressured to start proceedings to impeach Trump when every political sinew in their being dictates that they prioritize on correcting the imbalances in society that they ran on and were elected on. 

However no lesser personage than John Dean, Nixon’s WhiteHouse Counsel who spilled the beans on Nixon has maintained that, in the light of the evidence, that the Democrats have “little choice” but to begin impeachment against Trump. He sums up that while Richard Nixon was corrupt Donald Trump is evil. Dean joins a chorus of more radical newly elected Democrats and their supporters. The cry is that the President is not above the law and it sends a cynical message to the electorate that the Democrats are colluding in allowing him to get away with crimes. Put another way if Trump had lost the election and been a private citizen there would have been no hesitation in holding him legally accountable in the courts. 

THE ENABLING REPUBLICANS

The Democrats will receive no immediate help from the Republicans in solving their predicament. Their current attitude can be summed up as hoping the best and not preparing for the worst. If anything the Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell’s, ongoing protection of the POTUS is, at the very least, cause for concern. He refused initially during the Presidential election to be party to a joint declaration that the Russians were interfering in American democracy. His mantra was exactly the same as Trump’s that this unanimous intelligence would favor the Democrats  and he would not condemn Putin. Now McConnell is refusing point blank to allow a bipartisan motion to be debated on the Senate floor that would protect the integrity of the Mueller investigation. Since way back there have been whisperings as to his lack of objectivity on the subject of Trump and these escalated when his wife was appointed to Trump’s cabinet. At kindest he is compromised and will be the last Republican to bow to the inevitable. In the meantime it is noteworthy that he is one of the few whose loyalty has never been questioned by “The Boss”. 

The House Republicans, are those that were elected from the rural areas were Trump still has support so they are hardly likely at this stage to put country and constitution before a potential primary defeat. So as matters stand the Democrats cannot bank on a Damascus moment from the Republican legislators. Paul Ryan, the outgoing Republican Speaker, who was highly respected in some Republican circles, rather than lead on this issue, took the easy way out by resigning as Speaker and not standing for reelection. 

MULLER’S ATTITUDE AT PRESENT

As Jay H. Ell blogged last week the solution in this highly charged political situation is for Special Counsel Robert Mueller to indict the POTUS. Even if Mueller was so inclined, he is not ready to do so. He is more intent in proceeding slowly but surely to dot all the i’s and cross all the t’s. History will appreciate his efforts because he will join all the dots in a devastating indictment of the criminality, venality and evil of the POTUS. No one knows what internal pressure he is under with Trump’s appointee to replace Attorney General Sessions so he has own problems in seeing this sordid period in America’s history through. 

But all this doesn’t help the Democratic leadership as they confront the political reality of what their immediate agenda should be. Added to their crisis is the imperative of several of the newly elected charismatic young representatives to dump the established leadership of the House, especially Nancy Pelosi. 

WHY TERMINATION OF TRUMP IS NOT FEASIBLE AT THE MOMENT

The public are not where they were when Nixon’s end was inevitable. The latter’s two year investigative process had been, for practical purposes, public and when Nixon’s tapes revealed  that he had colluded with the Watergate cover up and that he had obstructed justice everyone was on the same page. Most of the Trump investigation has been behind close doors with virtually no leaks from the Special Counsel. There have been only a limited amount of legislative investigation. If anything the Republican Legislature has mainly assisted Trump in covering up the whole sordid mess. Then if the substance of his alleged felonies are examined Trump’s forty percent supporters and the Republican legislators will not share the narrative the Southern District Federal Court of New York afforded them. The latter maintained that he cheated the electoral process by buying off the silence of two women that he had had consensual affairs with in order not to damage his Presidential electoral campaign.

There is a misplaced belief by pundits that sexual misconduct is the inevitable death knell of a political career. The impeachment of Bill Clinton for lying about a consensual affair was generally regarded as a political sham and his popularity rose as a result while several of those igniting the process had their careers unceremoniously terminated. It is widely reported that the sustained attack on Brett Kavanaugh for an alleged gross teenage sexual assault helped mobilize Trump’s base in the midterms. As for The Donald he is a self confessed philanderer with endless allegations of sexual misconduct against him, has been married three times and was caught on tape bragging that he grabbed women by the pussy. It is unlikely that his body politic are going to be shocked by him conspiring to pay off two more women with whom he had consensual affairs, to keep quiet. It is going to require a lot more than that.

DEMOCRATS’ PATH IS THROUGH NANCY PELOSI, CHUCK SCHUMER AND HOPEFULLY A FEW SENATE REPUBLICANS LEAD BY ROMNEY

Now more than ever do the Democrats need the skillful canny leadership of the veteran Pelosi. She is possibly the only candidate with the experience and political savvy to organize the House Committees to see to it that the Democrats are balancing the agendas of both holding Trump accountable and fulfilling the mandates of health care, infrastructure, the inequitable tax structure and the like. In addition she must negotiate with paranoid Trump as ironically some of their policies coincide. The approach to Trump has to be coordinated with Senate Democratic Minority leader Schumer who is intent in not appearing to give Trump any victories. That approach should be abandoned as the Democratic Party have to act on the assumption that Trump will not get a second term.  Pelosi’s top priority is to meet the needs of her expanded electorate that delivered and that have to be persuaded that their effort was not an exercise in futility. 

Schumer’s priority is to work with the Republicans, behind McConnell’s back, in the Senate. What Legislative GOP cracks that there are appear to be are among the Republicans in the Senate. While two of Trump’s main detractors are leaving there are rumblings and signs that others might fulfill their responsibility to the Constitution. While all the Republicans have been ominously quiet in the light of the court revelations several Republicans have registered their disquiet in the recent past.The bipartisan vote to protect Muller emanated from the Republican controlled Senate Judiciary Committee and the Republican controlled Senate Intelligence Committee have been comparatively active in investigating the 2016 Presidential election. In addition there was an open revolt at Trump’s whitewashing of the Khashoggi murder.

The election of Mitt Romney former Republican Presidential candidate to the Senate who openly fought to prevent Trump from receiving the Republican nomination adds a new dimension to righting the ship. He is beholden only to the Utah electorate who have no great love for The Donald. If the POTUS has room on his worry list Romney should be added as he potentially represents a real danger to his future. Romney has leadership qualities and could well be the nidus for a revolt against Trump should the evidence become overwhelming. Romney is part of the old GOP and is under no pressure to buckle under Trump’s abuse of disloyal Republicans. Outgoing Speaker Ryan made no bones about the fact that he was looking to Romney, who was considered a moderate, to restore some of the values the GOP was formerly about. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Pelosi’s and Schumer’s objective is not to allow the current Congress to become embroiled in a premature futile impeachment fight with the Republicans. They have to withstand the pressure while at the same time investigate by publicly exposing his taxes, Russian business and the like and their link to collusion. They have to liase with like thinking Senate Republicans to protect Mueller and hope that when Mueller finally produces his report that Trump’s forty percent approval rating will have receded and or the Republicans will act in terms of the Constitution and follow the advice of John Dean and so many others - impeach and then remove “the evil” Donald Trump.

All in all a tall order and balancing act for the Democratic leadership. But their problems could ultimately be resolved if Mueller was able to persuade who may ever head the Justice Department following Sessions that Donald J. Trump should be indicted for conspiring with an adversarial foreign government to subvert the Constitution. As that is unlikely they have to plod on and ultimately restore the public’s faith in government by meeting their needs and bringing back integrity to the Presidency..

MUELLER SHOULD INDICT PRESIDENT TRUMP

The Mueller probe into investigation of Russian Interference in the 2016 U. S, elections and related matters is hurtling to a conclusion and the next few months will see steps toward its denouement.  The cascading unfolding of evidence related to the Trump Campaign involvement in the Russian interference in American democracy has been exponentially increased by court submissions in relation to the convictions of Michael Cohen and Michael Flynn. (The latter with its redactions tanatlisingly pointing to a conspiracy).

 Added to the previous indictments of close on forty persons and the public confessions by Trump campaign advisor Roger Stone that he colluded with Wikileaks in the Russian hacked e mail dump that put the kibosh on the Clinton campaign, Trump and his campaign members’ legal jeopardy has become more and more evident. With far more revelations and criminal indictments to follow such as the Manafort and more Cohen court submissions at the end of the week, Trump understandably is becoming more and more unhinged as witnessed by his tweets. 

Just with the current public knowledge the Special Counsel has a slam dunk case of Obstruction of Justice and witness tampering. There is a persuasive prima facie action that there was a conspiracy between the Trump Campaign and Russia in that he was negotiating a Trump Tower real estate deal with the Russians where they would provide the finance in return for the lifting of the sanctions against them. Then there are several instances of Trump campaign members of conspiring with Russian agents to interfere with the outcome of the Presidential election. 

Robert Mueller will have to decide on the process whereby closure will be effected in his probe. Donald J. Trump has moved from a subject in the investigation to the target. It will be the Special Counsel’s decision as whether to recommend an impeachment process or criminal indictment. The conventional wisdom is against indictments on the basis that it is the Justice Department policy that a sitting President cannot be indicted. Also there is the Watergate precedent where impeachment was the vehicle for arbitration and not indictment. 

It is fair to say that the country is still viewing the whole process through a partisan lens. This so much so that the Republican Leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell refuses to allow a motion to protect Special Counsel Mueller from capricious termination. He is fearful that this will not go down well with the Trump base which is the Republican Party at the moment and represents forty percent of the electorate.

 In today’s climate it would be more appropriate to remove the issue of Trump’s guilt from the partisan political divide that rocks this country into the dispassionate judicial arena. It is also believed that the majority of the electorate turned against Trump for the very reason that they supported him in the first place - they wanted Congress to see to their needs. Two years of partisan bickering in Congress over the President’s guilt as opposed to resolving the problems the electorate voted on would increase the American society’s perception that politics is about the Washington swamp’s needs and internal bickering rather than improving their lives better.   

INDICTMENT OF A PRESIDENT, THE CONSTITUTION AND SETTLED LAW

It is common cause that the Special Prosecutor favors following the Justice Department’s internal policy which is not settled law nor is it Constitutionally mandated. In fact the Department’s injunction is counter intuitive as the Constitution decrees that all are equal before the law. As it happens what legal precedent there is supports that a President be subject to the full force of the law. Spiro Agnew, Nixon’s Vice President, while in office was criminally indicted and convicted. The Supreme Court unanimously ruled that Nixon had to respond to a subpoena for evidence and the court later decided that Bill Clinton could be deposed in a civil matter. Watergate Prosecutor Jill Wine-Banks confided that Watergate Chief Special Prosecutor, Leon Jaworsky, concluded that it would be politically more advantageous to use the impeachment process to resolve Richard Nixon’s fate.

WHY THE WATERGATE PROSECUTOR FAVORED IMPEACHMENT OVER INDICTMENT

It is easy to discern why Jaworski favored impeachment. (Jaworski also believed that after Nixon was removed from office he would be tried in court and not prospectively pardoned by President Ford). By the time Jaworski had completed his report the country had heard evidence in front of a bipartisan Senate Judiciary Committee for over a year. It was estimated that close on ninety percent of Americans had viewed at least part of the hearings. The whole saga was covered live on television. They heard Nixon’s WhiteHouse Counsel John Dean spill all the beans as to why there was a “cancer in the Presidency”. Everybody involved was subpoenaed and gave public testimony. The body politic saw the outcome of legal investigations and the conviction of those who perpetrated the burglary and all “The President’s Men”.The latter included Nixon insiders including his Chief of Staff, Counsel, his appointments secretary, his Secretary of Justice, members of his reelection committee including cabinet ministers, several advisors as well as those involved in overseeing the Watergate break in. 

In addition Republican members of the Congress Judiciary committee were responsible for key turning points in the saga. It was the ranking Republican member Howard Baker who framed the key issue before the Committee., “What did the President know and when did he know it”. It was the Republican Counsel Fred Thompson who gleaned from Alexander Butterfield, a Nixon aide, that Nixon had set up a tape system in the Oval Office that would put the final nails in the Nixon coffin. On top of this all the country had been privy to the “Saturday Night Massacre” where Nixon forced the resignation of the initial special prosecutor Archibald Cox and both his Attorney General and his Deputy resigned as a result.

All this happened as a prelude to Jaworski’s report to Congress whereupon the House Judiciary Committee on a bipartisan basis impeached Nixon. The House and Senate Republican leaders in addition to the de facto leader of the Republican Party Barry Goldwater went to Nixon and told him that the majority of the Senate members would vote to throw him out so that it was in his interests to resign.

THE DIFFERING WORLDS OF WATERGATE AND RUSSIAGATE

It is fair comment that three of the four Legislative investigations, have been disgusting partisan affairs. In addition much of what has transpired has been in secret and out of the hearing of the body politic. Nothing has happened to change the partisan narrative by the legislators. As matters stand If Mueller’s report goes to Congress, the Democratic House will impeach him and the Republican Senate will acquit him. 

 In addition the Special Counsel is not viewed by forty percent of the electorate as an objective arbiter in the matter so that his findings however persuasive and powerful will again be the subject of controversy cheerlead by the POTUS himself and reinforced by the FOX NEWS echo chamber. 

As the process proceeded Nixon’s approval numbers crashed. He had been reelected with a walloping sixty - one percent of the vote to McGovern’s thirty seven percent. His approval rating reached as high as sixty - seven percent. After the Senate hearings it dropped to the forties but as the impeachment proceedings loomed it was in the thirties and it finally reached  twenty - four percent at the moment of his resignation.  

It is fair to say that there have been neither the impartial public hearings, nor the bipartisan approach in the Russiagate affair as compared to Watergate. Although Trump has lost about twenty percent of his electoral support he is still hangs in at forty percent approval rating. Put another way there is not the public consensus for a political impeachment nor the bipartisan legislature to put it into effect. In this milieu an impeachment process will create division and resolve nothing as each side scores political points. 

ADVANTAGES OF INDICTMENT OVER IMPEACHMENT

The criteria for impeachment are “high crimes and misdemeanors”. Impeachment is essentially a political process and on its face is the most appropriate vehicle for deciding whether a President is fit to continue in office. It can invoke criteria while not crimes are germane as to whether the President is fit for office.  Courts do not weigh in on “misdemeanors” such as constant lying, misleading the body politic and unpresidential behavior such is bringing the country into disrepute. 

In addition impeachment will fully absorb the legislature’s time at a period in the country’s history when the electorate is sick to death of the failure of the government to address what it considers to be the real problems facing the country. Donald Trump was elected for this very reason to rid the country of the swamp and meet the needs of the worker and middle class. There was a dramatic kick back to his hypocritical, narcissistic, self serving venality which was reflected by  the blue wave in the largest midterm majority of any political party in the history of America - the Democrats winning the House with a forty seat gain from the Republicans. In short society will be totally disillusioned with government should the next two years be spent on an unseemly party political fight which as things stand will result in impeachment but not in removal of the President. 

The other criterion for impeachment “high crimes” can more than adequately be accommodated by the courts. Counts such as obstruction of justice, abrogation of the campaign finance laws, conspiracy with a foreign adversary against the United States of America, financial malfeasance  and other criminal activity can more appropriately be dealt within the Judicial system which will allow for evidence to be put forward unadulterated by pure partisan bias.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It is possible but highly unlikely what Mueller releases in the next few weeks will influence the public opinion to the extent that they would back an impeachment. That would have to result in a consistent massive drop in Trump’s approval numbers and the Republican Legislators developing some civil responsibility or being pressured by their constituents to act. 

In the event that Trump hangs onto his base Mueller, who has in the face of taunts, humiliation and abuse from Trump and his echo chamber has not responded in kind but continued to do in a dignified and professional manner his constitutional duty, must make a decision to see that justice is served.

Mitch McConnell that faithful servile cynical servant of Trump in admitting that the Clinton impeachment was a political hatchet job that had a negative backlash on the Republicans has warned the Democrats not to go ahead. He warns that the Republicans will fight the issue politically and that the Democrats will suffer political reverses as they did. 

The only adults in the room, not for the first time, are the public servants. As in Watergate and now in Russiagate the civil servants have been the last line to save the Republic. Mueller needs  to take into account the brittleness of the body politic in making decision as to how to proceed. 

Whatever Mueller decides the country owes him an eternal debt of gratitude just as it owed the Watergate prosecutors in the Nixon impeachment and the Maryland Justice Department in their relentless prosecution of Vice President Spiro Agnew whom they, with Nixon’s then Attorney General, elected to indict him.