TRUMP: THE ART OF THE SCHLEMIEL

As the sickening predictable train smash of the Trump Presidency thunders on it forces a revisit to the question of how on earth did this mean spirited buffoon and cheat become such a “very very rich” celebrity in the first place let alone the country’s first citizen. His life long behaviors, echoed in the Republican Primary and Presidential campaigns, presaged that once in Office it would be his way or the high way. He served notice from the get go that he either did not understand or care about the separation of powers between the executive, the legislative branch and the judiciary. He would bully, bluff and behave like a thug as he illustrated again and again on the trail. Most important he was the greatest deal maker of all time so he could Make America Great Again. His role model was strongman Vladimir Putin and he would reset American relations with the authoritarian dictatorship. How it would be done was all documented in his story, which was only second in popularity, to the bible - The Art of The Deal.

SIXTY MILLION VOTERS ENABLED TRUMP

In the final analysis is the Trump phenomenon just a reflection of America’s state of mind in that sixty million citizens cast their votes for him to be their President?   Put another way all these voters entrusted him to make life or death decisions on their behalf and accepted his half baked economic plans and unrealistic proposals as to how he would unscramble globalization. More sadly they either supported or ignored his racist and xenophobic message and endorsed his leadership. Then in spite of his unashamed sexist behavior over fifty percent of women voted for him. Most significantly the voters were prepared to overlook his authoritarian tendencies apparently convinced by his sales pitch. 

It can be argued that, in a disillusioned and frightened world, he promised nirvana. For example, in healthcare, he committed to give coverage with lower premiums for all Americans but the legislation he subsequently backed would eliminate over twenty million citizens who currently have medical insurance. He then would bring back millions of manufacturing jobs by several stratagems designed to boost American industry, These included, labeling China a currency manipulator, introducing a trillion dollar infrastructure job program, slapping a border tax on foreign made goods and eliminating the NAFTA trade agreement. He has done none of the latter. He”loved” coal and would reopen the coal mines - all this in the first 100 days. Then of course there is that ”beautiful” wall. He would clean the swamp unlike “Pay for Play” Hillary and on and on. 

What also was apparently so seductive to the masses was  he was his own man - self made he would have you believe. The Establishment shunned him and he shunned The Establishment. He was one of the masses - “The blue collar billionaire”. They just loved the way he told it the way it was - shot his mouth off with the first thing that came to his head! He was self assured so totally in control - a winner.

DONALD FAILS TO DELIVER TO HIS ENABLERS

Well what has he achieved? There have been his well publicized executive moves to ban Muslims from entering the country. Even this promise, which has been watered down to citizens of six Muslim countries, has been stalled in the courts. His wall has not only not been financed by Mexico, the Republican Congress has as yet not passed a penny for its construction.  As far as the promise to deport the eleven million illegals in the country, all that has been seen on television is the tawdry and shameful expulsion of lawful ‘illegals’ who were going for their mandatory visit with Immigration Authorities to prove that they have not broken the law.

Healthcare “reform” limped through in the House of Representatives but it was not what The Donald promised. (The Donald carries on as if it his vision that was passed). The Senate Republicans, if they ever get round to it, have indicated that there is a long road ahead for “Repeal and Replace Obamacare”. There is literally no hope that 51 out of 52 Republicans in the Senate will agree on any one Bill. There are enough on the left and right implacable to a middle of the road agreement. One major success with which he can be credited - the election of Supreme Court Judge Neil Gorsuch. By so doing he,“the libertine sinner and pussy grabber”, has satisfied the Evangelical faction of the GOP as their only agenda is that Roe v Wade is overturned. 

Now without repeal of Obamacare there is no money for his grand fiscal plans to reduce taxes and the like - not to mention the trillion he wants for infrastructure. And it is his fiscal approach that gives him his flimsy relationship with the Republican Establishment. Without that he is a political hybrid with no overriding philosophy other than meaningless slogans such as “America First” and “Make America Great Again”. His base incidentally has no connect with the Conservative Fiscal Policy of the Ryan Establishment. They want their Medicare and Social Security,                                     

So the only promise he really has delivered on is improving relations with Russia. Needless to say he has delivered nothing to his base.

THE RUSSIAN CONNECTION

The only consistent behavior from The Donald is his touching faith in Russia and it’s leader. What makes this observation so startling was that in the process of his romance it was revealed that Russia had undermined American Democracy by destabilizing the Presidential election. Although all seventeen intelligence agencies in the United States lead by the FBI, CIA and NSA all agreed that Russia had in effect declared war, to this day he still will not accept that it was the Russians that perpetrated the hacking. 

The reportage of his campaign’s contacts with the Russians are legion and just today Reuter’s broke a story which claimed that there had been at least eighteen additional undisclosed contacts between the Russians and the Trump campaign. Six of those were between Ambassador Kislyak and the campaign. One of the latter conversations involved General Flynn and dealt with the creation of a channel outside the regular security forums, who they didn’t trust, for chats between Putin and Trump.

In his dealings with Russia Trump has illustrated all his behaviors that he proudly displayed in the election campaign. He turned America into Trump Inc. He was the new boss and everyone in the Republican Party when asked to jump, answered, “How high?”

Besides his own unashamed fawning of Russia he surrounded himself with fellow travelers that in the real world defy logic. Before even discussing his cabal one myth has to be dispelled that he is loyal to those that are loyal to him. Just witness what happened to the three politicians that unreservedly and continuously gave him a semblance of credibility in the campaign - Rudi Giuliani, who begged to be Attorney General, Chris Christie, who withstood humiliation after humiliation, and Newt Gingrich who with his good lady Callista bowed and scraped.  Following his elevation to the Presidency, The Donald unceremoniously abandoned them. The Family of course is something different as they obviously believe that blood is thicker than water. 

So onto the dramatis personae that make his relationship with Russia that much more questionable.

THE CO CONSPIRATORS, THE RUSSIAN CONNECTION AND THE RESPONSE

The figure that conjures up the most concern is General Michael Flynn, who informed the Trump transition team headed by Vice President Mike Pence, (who is running out of plausible deniability), that he was being investigated by the FBI. President Obama warned Trump not to hire him and Sally Yates, then Deputy Attorney General, repeatedly cautioned that Flynn had lied about his discussions with the Russians to all including Vice President Pence. It was also common knowledge that he failed to report that he was a foreign agent and had received moneys from Russia and Turkey. Then after Yate’s final dire warning Trump inexplicably retained Flynn for another eighteen days. Flynn is ready to sing. He claims he has a big story to tell and will only “come clean” it if he is given immunity from prosecution. He has to be Trump’s biggest nightmare.

 Paul Manafort, Trump’s early campaign advisor has links up the ying yang to Putin’s allies and is also under investigation by the FBI. There are then are at least four other members of Team Trump, including his Attorney General Jeff Sessons, who had contact with the Russians. 

Flynn is obviously the key figure. This is evident if one looks at the lengths The Donald has gone  to protect and pander to him including having made him his Chief Security Advisor after learning that he was under FBI investigation. In addition to that:

* He fired Sally Yates.

* He asked FBI Director Comey to lay off investigating Flynn who was a good man.

* He set up the new Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein, to make it appear that it was the Deputy AG’s memorandum that was the cause of his firing Comey. Then the President left Rosenstein and his own WhiteHouse team hanging when he changed the reason he fired Comey from the memorandum on Comey to “The Russian Thing” (aka Flynn). Rosenstein, who was is now overseeing “The Russian Thing” investigation had originally publicly maintained that there was no need for an independent Special Counsel.

So The Donald thought that was that and the day after he met with the Russian Foreign Minister and Ambassador Kislyak, the chief Russian contact with his campaign team. Putin had asked him to hold the meeting was his explanation for this bizarre threesome. The American Press was excluded but Russian Tass was allowed in. They distributed the photo op pictures to the world. He gave his Russian guests top secret classified information, not even afforded to American allies. His explanation was as President he could do what he liked. When all hell broke lose Putin offered to be a character witness for him, having already backed him up on his firing of Comey.

THE AFTERMATH

Trump just didn’t realize, even if he is the President, that you just don’t do things like that when there is supposedly a separation of powers. More to the point there are consequences to his actions. He had offended Comey who has since spilled some of the goods he had on him.  

In the aftermath and revelations following the Comey firing, the Deputy Attorney General changed his mind about a special counsel and nominated one to investigate “Russiagate”. He appointed someone even more distinguished than Comey, the former FBI Director Robert Mueller. While both are considered honest and competent,  Mueller had not been involved in any controversies.

The Republicans in Congress were ecstatic as they were off the hook and suddenly joined the Democrats in saying what a jolly good idea a special counsel was. In addition the Republican Chairs of all the Congress Investigating Committees renewed their resolve to continue their own pursuits for the truth. They didn’t have to defend Trump anymore as the matter was sub judice. So let the chips fall where they must fall. They now could get on with legislation. In so doing they are putting distance between them and The President. What they are forgetting is that they still need Trump to sign into law their efforts and they have angered him big time by their unabashed glee.

Meanwhile Trump carries on interviewing for a new FBI Director. Two Republican politicians took themselves off the shortlist. The Senate, almost ad idem, have insisted that the appointee that they will ratify has to be totally independent. 

Trump has the power to fire Mueller but Jay H. Ell believes that the unfolding of recent events, including the optics and the narrative of the meeting with The Russians would force the GOP to agree to impeachment proceedings for obstruction of justice. 

Trump is screaming foul at the “unprecedented witch hunt” that has been unleashed on him. He can rightly maintain that just because he is paranoid doesn’t mean that everybody isn’t against him.

The current theory is follow the money. Real Estate deals and construction are favored ways for money laundering and corruption and that is the name of The Donald’s game. The pace is not going to slow down as revelations break daily from incredible teams of journalists in both the written and visual media. So watch this space.

Trump’s Art of the Deal tactics that require bullshit, bluff, lies, threats and bullying, but most of all being totally in control of the variables, don’t seem to working so well in this milieu. Come to think of it, they failed at least six times before in the real world and The Donald declared bankruptcy and started all over again. If you are axed from the Presidency there are no reruns.

However, Trump has one ace up his sleeve - his adoring base. This monolith does show early signs of cracking but while it remains in place, impeachment is a non starter. So there is still a long way to go. Trump has to be shown for what he is, an Emperor without clothes and a schlemiel. It can be done but it has to unfold, bit by bit, in the market place. The support of Nixon, who had been elected in a landslide, once he was shown to be a liar and a cheat, melted like ice. And Nixon was a saint when compared to Trump.

COMEY FIRED BY THE APPRENTICE PRESIDENT

The country is facing a historical moment as an investigation into Russian interference into the American democratic process has been allegedly obstructed by the President of the United States. If this is in fact so it is obstruction of justice, an impeachable offense.

All this is taking place in Donald Trump’s Presidency which is a thrill a minute. There is never enough time to fully analyze a Trump catastrophe as he rapidly catapults into the next one. So while everyone was digesting the stunning impact that, fired, Acting Attorney General Sally Yates had on revealing the incompetence of his Presidency, he fired FBI Director Comey thereby evincing even greater gasps of shock from a hardened body politic. The latter had been convinced, prior to that, there was nothing that el Presidente could ever do to surprise them again. Hopefully they have finally learned never to underestimate the ‘greatest President ever’s’ ability to outdo his latest outrageous act. 

It is salutary to reflect the subject matter of Counsellor Yates’s testimony - Trump’s incomprehensible delay at firing his Security Advisor General Flynn who had been found to have fraternized with the Russians. To add insult to injury Obama had warned him, months before, not to hire Flynn in the first place. But this was all hastily put down, by the Trump echo chamber. They spun that as Obama had ‘a thing’ about Flynn and couldn’t get on with him, he fired him. Simultaneously they argued that it was Obama that issued Flynn with a security clearance to be Trump’s chief security advisor! Yates of course was a Clinton partisan so what could you expect from her was the explicit argument on her damning evidence to the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing. 

TRUMP’S HILLARY EXPLANATION JUST DOESN’T CUT IT

It is difficult to comprehend the President’s political assessment of his axing of Comey, who was in the midst of investigating his campaign’s relationship with Russia. Trump claimed that the reason for his decision was Comey’s unfair treatment of Hillary. Trump believed he convinced everyone that it had nothing to do with his own possible collusion with the Russians as, in his letter of termination to Comey, he thanked the former Director for telling him no less than three times that he, The Donald, was not a target of an investigation. One can only assume that Comey had to do it thrice as The Donald needed constant reassurance. One can also be reassured that Comey who might be testifying again will, for sure, back off from his previous non committal stance on this subject. The President has to be more than mildly angered that Comey again and again refused to back him up on his still standing claim that Barack Obama wire tapped Trump Towers. Also Trump and company wanted Comey to focus on the leaks that have given this whole story legs rather than the Russian attack on the Presidential election. 

IT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSSIA -  IT WAS BECAUSE OF HILLARY

The fact that since the word go, in spite of mounting evidence and general acceptance that the Russians were involved in subverting American Democracy, Trump has claimed, to this day, that it could have been the Chinese or some 400 pound man sitting on a bed that did the hacking. It is all Fake News! Now Comey was heading up the team that had concluded that it was the Russians in an investigation that Trump claimed was a waste of tax payer money and a massive “hoax”. 

Not only did this have nothing to do with Russia, Trump claimed, it had everything to do with defending ‘crooked, lock her up Hillary’ whom Comey had done the dirt. Trump didn’t have to explain why he had previously congratulated the FBI Director for impugning Clinton’s character on her e mails and then for his courage for re opening his investigation into her e mails a few days before the election. 

Everyone had to know that the electioneering comments were just politics. Trump was now no longer candidate Trump but had the gravitas of being President Trump, who had a responsibility to act on Comey’s “atrocities”. He did not believe that anyone would give a hoot about that self opinionated pompous ass Comey. The Democrats were just a bunch of hypocrites as they had been whining a few days before that Comey had given Trump the Presidency. Any rate he was only acting on the recommendation of his Attorney General, Jeff Sessons, who unrecused himself, especially, for this important task. He, the President, had acted within his lawful powers and even Vladimir Putin had agreed. The Russian Premier told CBS news in Moscow that Trump, “was acting according to his competence, in accordance with his law”. Putin confirmed that, “We had nothing to do with it”. Putin had been backed up earlier in the day by his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who just happened to be visiting Trump that day. When a reporter asked whether Comey was axed because of the Russian connection, Lavrov answered, “Are you are kidding?” He was accompanied by Russian Ambassador Kislyak who is central in the investigation as the contact man for the Trump campaign.

Did Trump not give a thought of the optics of meeting two Russian operatives who were allegedly directly involved in the attack of the integrity of the American way of life, the day after he had fired the investigator of the Russian interference? 

 BANANA REPUBLIC LA LA LAND

There are three things that The Donald does not seem to get as he orbits in his own la la land. (He really has not changed his world view that he can get away with anything whether it be shooting some - one on Fifth Avenue or grabbing any dolly's pussy.) The firing in of itself is not congruent with “Making America Great Again”. It is in line with the behavior of the banana Republics, “South of the Border”. You just don’t fire the police just because they are investigating crimes that you might be involved in. Of course there is a lot else he does that is in sync with those totalitarian entities - making money from your political position, appointing family in top political positions and letting them make money too, just for starters. 

FIRING COMEY WON’T MAKE IT GO AWAY

Then there is the belief that this will all go away because he has fired the top cop. On the contrary he has upped the anti. Even the Conservative media have had a field day. Charles Krauthammer on the Fox News Channel had the following to add to the mix -“If this was so offensive to the Trump Administration , you would have spoken to Comey in the transition and said ‘we are going to let you go’. That’s when a president can easily make a decision to have a change. That is not unprecedented. But to fire him summarily without warning, in the middle of May about something that happened in July is almost inexplicable”. As the Fox News Half Time Report summed it up - “Trump picks a bad time for a melt down”. 

The legislators have upped their call for an independent prosecutor or an independent enquiry. Seven of the Republican Senators have joined in, in one way or another. Even in the House of Representatives, a member of the Freedom Caucus, Justin Amash, has called for an Independent Investigation. Whatever Comey has dug up is still there. He will spill the beans in the classified briefings. Also the fact that just prior to his axing the reasons as to why he asked for more money for his investigation will be canvassed. The new nominee for FBI Chief will be vetted with a vengeance. There will be more and more leaks to the Press as to what is going on. The sub committees will subpoena The Donald’s taxes. As John Dean, who blew the whistle on Watergate opined it won’t go away. 

DON’T FORGET HE HAS TO DELIVER TO THE BASE

Now The Donald has got to get his agenda going. Most importantly he has to get a Health Policy across even though he doesn’t give a hoot what that policy ultimately is. Then there is his tax policy. He maintained in his State of the Union address that he was going to send to Congress a trillion dollar infrastructure bill that would produce millions of jobs. Even his ever loving base is going to want to see results sooner or later. 

The Republican leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, whose wife is a member of Trump’s cabinet, made a sporting attempt to justify the Administration decision and attempted to get on with the business of governing. The Democrats have threatened to go slow and all they have to do is to follow McConnell’s playbook. McConnell must know how easy it is to go slow on legislation. His whole mantra in the Obama years was to allow nothing that Obama suggested to see the light of day. 

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

This story is moving rapidly. The Washington Post, with 30 sources, maintained that Trump grew furious with Comey as his investigation concentrated on the Russian attack on American democracy rather than on the leaks to the Press. Trump’s business dealings have also been brought into focus by investigators. The New York Times are reporting that Comey had confided to an associate that, “Trump was outside the realm of normal and even crazy”. The Wall Street Journal maintains that the Russian investigation had been ramped up by Comey. Instead of weekly briefings there were daily briefings. The Washington Post has just released a report that the newly appointed Deputy Attorney General has threatened to resign because his concerns about Comey’s handling of the Clinton e mail investigation was made the basis of the firing of Director Comey.

There have to be more leaks coming as the Trump administration unravels. 

The Senate Intelligence Committee are subpoenaing Michael Flynn’s documents relevant to the investigation. The last time similar subpoenas were issued was in the 9/11 investigation. Flynn will in all probability refuse pleading the fifth amendment not to incriminate himself.

It has to be obvious that the Russian issue will not go away. As James Clapper, the former Director of the National Intelligence Agency, testified at the end of the devastating Senate Intelligence hearing, the Senators need to focus on the fact that the country and every value it stands for was and is under attack from the Russians.

Trump will have to appoint an FBI Director who will have to pass incredible scrutiny. Ironically Trump would have been better off with Comey. The latter was compromised and far easier to smear than who ever is subsequently appointed.

This whole episode has hardly improved the 2018 Republican electoral position. It is highly unlikely that impeachment proceedings would be instituted with a Republican House so Trump’s ultimate fate is dependent on the outcome of the 2018 elections.. 

The  Russian affair together with Health Care is now the subject of Republican Town Hall meetings of those Congressmen who have the guts to hold them.

All this means that Trump is in deep trouble and it is reported that he has appointed legal representatives. But there is a long way to go. At the end of the day Trump has fired the FBI Director who was investigating his campaign. That could represent obstruction of justice which was the principle reason for the Nixon impeachment. 

IS OBAMACARE DEAD?

The recent narrow House of Representatives Republican victory to repeal and replace Obamacare means much more than just that. There are tsunami political implications that will reverberate with what is on its face is a loss of healthcare for at least twenty- four million Americans and a refusal to pay Planned Parenthood for their services for two and a half million women. Most significantly is the threat of either denial or massive increase of premiums for up to thirty percent of Americans, with pre existing health problems, as well as citizens between fifty and sixty - four years old. This is all coupled with the threat that the legislation would result in the closure of droves of Rural Hospitals that would be deprived of the fees that the newly insured were providing. The immediate beneficiaries are the wealthiest two percent who receive a three hundred billion dollar tax reduction - that being the additional tax they have been paying to cover the costs of Obamacare these past eight years. 

REPUBLICANS WENT AHEAD WITH REPEAL REGARDLESS OF CONSEQUENCES

When one reflects on the overwhelming protests to the introduction of the repeal and replace of the Affordable Care Act, (ACA) with the Affordable Health Care Act, (ACHA)  bracketed with the fact that every possible professional and service organization protested the change it boggles the mind that the GOP went ahead like lemmings marching to the sea. There had to be compelling reasons why the Republican leadership rushed into this legislation, especially when the influential American Association of Retired Persons that represents over thirty - eight million paid up members and the American Medical Association with every other medical professional body publicly opposed it, These organizations were supported by the American Hospital Association, The American Cancer Association with all other bodies that represent a disease interest together with all those institutions that raise money for the ill and disabled such as “March for Dimes” all campaigned against this legislation .

It is little wonder that several cynical Democrats were hoping that the House Republicans would do what they did. They hobbled together a Bill with amendments that could win over all factions of the Party, regardless of the fact that it rendered the AHCA unworkable. All this in their obsession to pass a Repeal and Repeal Obamamcare Act which they have been attempting to effect for seven years They deliberately did not wait for an evaluation of their effort from the non partisan Congressional Budget Office that had evaluated that the first more moderate GOP legislative attempt reporting that it would result in twenty four million people losing healthcare and would “save” $337 billion.

PERCEPTION IS REALITY SO WATCH OUT TRUMP

From the word go Obamacare was attacked by the Republicans as fatally flawed care while pushing up the costs. The annual increase in everyone’s insurance premiums, which coincided with the rolling out of the ACA was argued to support the seven year old Republican narrative that Obamacare was a ‘disaster’. This mantra became a ritual as the Republican controlled House of Representatives repealed the ACA sixty times in the full knowledge that their then vote could not become law. In addition like all major revolutionary changes there was plenty that was not working with ACA. In certain States, insurers, especially where the populations were sparse, did not find it cost effective to continue. Providers too were reluctant, in some instances, to treat so many additional low paying patients. 

To up the anti on the repeal and replace process, the President made it a cornerstone of his campaign. However what he defined as what needed to be done is not remotely close to what the AHCA does. The Donald campaigned that he would not touch Medicare and Medicaid nor the ACA provision that enforced insurance companies to insure those with previous illnesses at no extra cost. The new Act does the opposite. The Donald promised that he would provide better health care for all Americans for less cost. Like in so many other spheres Trump was operating in his alternate reality. The problem for the GOP is that The Donald’s base voted for the Trump’s election manifesto, an interpretation that he is still sticking too. So in the aftermath of the electoral promises the Republicans and Trump, if they were to have any credibility, had to go ahead as quickly as possible, with the AHCA, regardless of the fact that it only had a seventeen percent approval rating.

Not only do the GOP legislators have to live with what is in this act so does Trump. As the Democratic leader in the House, Nancy Pelosi, gleefully announced the Republicans that voted for it have their vote tattooed on their foreheads. The verdict on the two celebrations following the passage of the AHCA is still out. The Democrats singing Goodbye to the Republicans and Trump and the Republicans celebrating at the WhiteHouse on a piece of legislation that has a long long way to go before it becomes law.

OTHER MOTIVATIONS FOR THE AHCA

There were philosophical reasons to axe Obamacare as well. The GOP chief ideologue, House Speaker, Paul Ryan believes in small government and market forces. He does not agree that it is the Government’s responsibility to provide health care for all. Others, even more rigid, outright state that Healthcare is not a right and if you cannot afford it that is just too bad. This archaic Republican position if fully articulated would be very unpopular with the electorate. 

Some commentators are convinced that the AHCA was essential in order to effect tax reform. The nearly four hundred billion tax dollars saved from the ACA would be needed for tax deductions proposed in Trump’s tax reform plan. Some pundits argue that this was the greatest motivation for the AHCA and maintain that without it tax reform would be dead in the water. There is little doubt that the Democrats are going to run on “You lost your health care for a tax break for the rich”.

There are the purely internal political motivations for this vote. The moderate Republicans that have everything to lose were persuaded by the following logic - while the strongest GOP support for the AHCA is from the far right they are the majority of the few voters that pitch up for the Republican Primaries and are most effective at getting their people the nomination. Necessity being the mother of invention these moderates were persuaded that if they were ousted in the Primaries whether or not they would lose they seats in the midterms was irrelevant as they wouldn’t be around to contest them. 

Other political objectives were achieved in the leadership sphere. For better or for worse Trump is ensconced as the Republican leader as he became intimately involved directly and indirectly in the arm twisting to sneak this bill through. Mike Pence virtually took up residence in the House to get the guys “To take one for team Trump”. It didn’t seem to matter that the concessions needed to land the right wing Freedom Party and the eight billion dollar sop to the moderates wouldn’t jive in the real world. The Trump team and Ryan cobbled together this boondoggle as only the end result mattered. Ryan finally put his stamp on his leadership of the House but how long this will all hang together will be put to the test again and again and more specifically if and when Trumpcare returns from the Senate.

THE OUTCOMES 

There is little doubt that the short term victory is Ryan and Trump’s. The problem is that the Act is interpreted differently by the two. Trump is not remotely interested in ideology and will do and say whatever he feels he needs to. In fact he will declare victory regardless of the outcome. 

The bottomline is that there is no way that the bill can be interpreted as fulfilling Trump’s election promises and this will be played out in the midterm 2018 elections. As Pelosi has stated the GOP members have their votes tattooed on their foreheads and this may well result in the Dems retaking the House. The Trump electorate voted for a health care act as enunciated by him and far more in line with the Democratic vision. 

Republican Opposition

The GOP Senate, which has only a tiny Republican majority has served notice that they are starting de novo on Health Care. It is certain that there is no way that whatever emerges from the upper house would pass in the House of Representatives without Democratic support. That leaves two alternatives either Obamacare remains as is or Trumpcare will represent Obamacare “fixed up”. Republican Senators Cassidy and Collins have already drafted legislation that they maintain passes the “Jimmy Kimmel test”. The latter refers to a late night comic whose new born son was treated with a live saving operation. An emotive Kimmel argued that it should be apolitical that money should not dictate whether or not one’s son should live. He emoted further that if legislation allowed insurance companies to exclude patients with preexisting conditions his son could never be eligible. The video went viral receiving over ten million hits within a few days. Collins has stated in, so many words that she wants to plug the holes in Obamacare and provide care for the still twenty - eight million Americans not covered.

The tip of the iceberg of the GOP that has thus far defected, 20 in the House of Representatives and at least 7 Governors, led by Governor Kasich, face a real boost in the Senate where, as yet, not one Republican Senator has come out in support of the House Resolution. 

Health Act Can Spillover Into Battle for Control of GOP

All this could put into play the long put off battle for the heart and soul of the GOP between the Freedom Party - the former Tea party, and the moderates and what is left of the Bush passionate conservatism. The “middle of the road” pure ideological Ryanism cannot take hold in a society where even the Republicans, as Trump cottoned onto, want their Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. They also want their Obamacare. This “socialism” doesn’t fit into Ryan’s fiscal conservatism and decentralized government. It is off the charts for the Freedom Party.

So the biggest beneficiaries of this battle will in all probability be the Democrats and maybe, just maybe, the whole healthcare system itself will get a total overhaul. A system that does not treat all Americans and costs nearly double of those countries that do, needs to go. As Trump argues Australia’s health care system with their single payor administration, is much better. The only problem is that he says anything and it invariably means nothing.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

 For the foreseeable future Obamacare is alive and well and living in the USA.  If Russiagate could be Trump’s nemesis Ryan’s obsession with Obamacare may be his.

THE TRUMP PROBLEM - WHAT IS THE ANSWER?

“How do you solve the problem of The Donald”, to hum along with Julie Andrews as she also faced a seemingly unsolvable situation in the Austrian Hills in the musical, “The Sound of Music”. The fact that the Oval office is occupied by an individual whose word and promises mean absolutely nothing, who has been found to be a chronic pathological serial liar, whose loose tongue threatens a nuclear war, whose personal fortune is increased every second by the fact that he is President, whose election was illegally assisted by a foreign power with whom members of his administration and campaign had contact with, who refuses to disclose the information that would allow examination as to whether the Trump Presidency is a front forTrump Inc. and that his half filled administration is incompetent, has not meaningfully impacted the support that magically got him elected. 

So how do you oppose him?

AMERICANS LET TRUMP HAPPEN

While it is self evident that his victory was facilitated by just a small number of Americans who switched in key States it was also accompanied by wholesale disinterest by nearly half the electorate. All this begs the question as to what is being done by the Democratic Opposition to prevent a recurrence of another minority victory by The Donald or the likes of him. While the reasons are many and complex as to why Trump emerged triumphant one factor stands out above the rest- the electorate were totally and utterly disillusioned by self serving politicians and “politics as usual”. The fact that Trump daily perpetrates at least one action that would herald the end of the career of any conventional politician is irrelevant. Poor old Anthony Weiner who had even been mentioned as a possible Presidential candidate had his career terminated because he texted sexual stuff to a few apparently consenting females. Contrast that with the multiple actual complaints The Donald has had of sexual harassment not to mention that he is a self confessed “pussy grabber”. Then there was the tragic case of Mitt Romney who couldn’t get past first base because he wouldn’t produce his tax returns. Compare that with the daily revelations of The Donald’s local and international malfeasance let alone his point blank refusal to produce his returns. 

To illustrate that nepotism and illegal gain of the Presidency is alive and well around the 100 day mark and is regarded as business as usual, the Duterte affair tells it all. The President, out of the blue, invited the President of Philippines, an unashamed brutal murderer, to the White House. Simultaneously there was a report that a billboard in Manila featured Ivanka Trump, Trump’s daughter and a Special Assistant to the President, who was advertising the new Trump Tower Manila. The media let alone Congress has not as much featured this blatant abuse of power. 

So judging Trump by normal standards just doesn’t cut it. Even the media seem to have given up the ghost on the Trump m. o. as the above example suggests. He is given a pass on everything because he is “not like the crooked politicians in Washington”.

“CROOKED INCOMPETENT” TRUMP’S BEHAVIOR IS NOT ENOUGH TO LOSE HIS ELECTORATE’S TRUST

The penny should have dropped by now that Trump still represents a preferable alternative to the “Washington swamp” of both parties to at least three groups - a group of disillusioned Democrats, Republicans that held their noses and pulled the levers and those citizens that didn’t think it important enough to vote against him. His first hundred days if anything have proved the fact of his unconditional support from his base.  So what if anything are the Dems doing about it besides rubbing their hands with glee at every inane Tweet and pathetic stumble that The Donald provides with monotonously regularity? The answer is - not much! Trump believes, as he did in the campaign, that his coalition is enough to get him re elected. Those who believe that lightning won’t strike twice just better have a plan B in case it does. 

So let us look at a snapshot of where the politics were at this hundred day mark.

POLITICAL ACTIVITIES ON THE 100 DAY WEEKEND

A number of events took place around  the historical landmark of Trump’s 100th day in office which serve to illustrate where American politics are at:

* Yet another mass protest hit the streets protesting Trump. This one was on Trump’s denial of climate change. Tens of thousands of American took to the streets. According to Michael Moore the level of civil uprising against ‘Trumpism’ far exceeds even that of the sixties where Vietnam was a central issue. (Blog: “Protest Trump’s America”). This country widespread mutiny shows no signs of abating and the momentum seems to be growing. The traditional May Day protests were morphed into massive anti Trump demonstrations. However, all this has to be translated into regime change otherwise it serves only as a frustration release. 

• Al Sharpton’s National Action Network Committee saw the largest gathering of African American leaders in a long while. The impressive list of participants included several members of the Obama administration including former Attorney General Eric Holder. Bearing in mind that there is more than a whisper that the African American constituency were not out in force in the Hillary campaign this renewed commitment may be significant now that the stakes have been laid bare and African American voting rights are on the chopping block.

• The annual WhiteHouse Correspondents’ Dinner was held. This annual jamboree reflects to a lesser or greater degree the tension between the Administration and the predominantly liberal media. It also showcases the level of satire directed at the incumbent President. Never before have the cadre of late night comedians been so unashamedly and blatantly anti a President. These performers, particularly as a group, have the largest and most important demographic of youth following them. The fact that the network satirists have the complete go ahead to give Trump a full go is indicative of the fact that the business people don’t believe that this blatant partisanship is impacting their advertising revenue. Conspicuously absent from the Correspondents’ fest was the President himself. Trump not being there is like a production of Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark. There can be no greater affirmation in the non appearance of The Donald that he does not give two hoots about expanding his constituency. They can all go to hell.

* To reinforce the Trump isolationism and his belief that all that matters is his base, he held a rally in rural Pennsylvania, a key state in his electoral victory. This instead of attending the Correspondents’ black tie dinner which he ridiculed to his adoring following. He was into his campaign mode, where he is most comfortable, promising the world with not a care or a clue as to how he is going to deliver. This self indulgent orgy followed the previous day’s comforting address to the National Rifle Association where he reassured the faithful that their democratic right to have as many guns as they liked, whether they be AK- 47s or not, would be defended till kingdom come. So if there is any doubt that Trump was about to become the President of all Americans he, once again, dispelled it this weekend with a one two punch. Notwithstanding the disaster of his first 100 days he declared victory to the cheering faithful, reaffirming that, at this stage of the game, he still wasn't to going to allow reality to interfere with his world view.

* At the political business end of the weekend is the pending Georgia House of Representatives bye election where feverish electioneering is taking place. The outcome of this contest is already being considered a bellwether of whether buyer’s remorse has begun to set in in the Trump Presidency. The Republican in 2016 won the district by thirty points but Trump only won the constituency by six percent. A fortune is being spent in this election and according to pundits the Democrat has a fifty percent chance of winning. Regardless of the outcome this contest is being fought, principally, as a referendum on Trump and not on the basis on an alternative vision for America. The real fight is going to be in 2018 in a national wide contest. Hopefully the battle lines will be carefully drawn between the alternatives that America faces. 

SO WHAT IS THE ANSWER?

Regardless of the fact that by every parameter and every form of measurement the Trump Presidency is a disaster The Donald soldiers on declaring victory all the while to his cheering base.

While there is objective evidence that Trump has lost a small section of his base for all in tense and purposes the faithful are still faithful. Trump for his part is not adjusting his strategy to extend his constituency believing that he is dealing with a rerun of previous polls that got it wrong. After all look who is President.

The Democrats for a host of reasons should not sit back in the belief that Trump has to implode and then his base will desert him. To date the Trump faithful don’t seem to care that he has sold them a bill of goods. The crisp point is that even though he and his administration are worse than the swamp that they supposedly replaced, his base still supports him because he is so different from the smooth self serving operatives in DC. 

The Democrats need to translate the mass uprising against the Trump phenomenon by mobilizing the protestors into political action. They need to do this by unambiguously promoting their policies and running on them as opposed to running on Trump as a joke - been there done that and it failed. In addition they need to address the fears and anger that produced the Trump switch. They need to reassure the electorate that they are really going to drain the swamp because, as The Donald, has convinced them, the Democrats are part of the malaise that has so dominated decision making in Washington for decades. It is indeed big business and their lobbyists that are the major constituency of the legislators on both sides of the aisle. 

Jay H. Ell has indicated again and again that Trump is in a quicksand created by his campaign’s involvement with Russia. If the criminal investigation shows there was collusion with the Russians there will be a clamor for impeachment. Realistically this could not happen if Trump still has the forty percent of the electorate he has at the moment. There has to be a groundswell against him.Clearly his supporters currently believe that whatever people may allege it is fake at best and at worst he is still better than anything else that Washington has had to offer these past fifty years. 

ELECTORATE’S PERCEPTION TOWARDS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

 Jay H. Ell believes Nate Silver’s assessment, reinforced by Hillary Clinton, that Russia’s targeted interference, hacking and Comey’s inexplicable late intervention was responsible for the eighty thousand votes that gave Trump his electoral triumph. However that begs the question why the race was that close. Jay H. Ell would argue that the narrative that the conventional politicians could no longer be relied on to meet societal needs had taken root and this is what put the populist Trump within striking distance. While the Democrats have an able stable of political candidates they might need to recognize that they may need a figure outside of politics to run with. Someone like Howard Schultz, the former Starbucks CEO, who has walked the walk, is the type of candidate that might fit the bill. He is quoted as saying that employee benefits should not be viewed as an added cost but rather as a powerful energizer of growth. Schultz also believes that those who are fortunate enough to achieve authority have a responsibility to see that no one is left behind.

The paradigm has changed throughout the world with regard to political leadership. This should not exclude exceptional individuals such as Elizabeth Warren or New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu. It is however salutary to reflect that there was no one more qualified to be President of the United States than Hillary Clinton but at the end of the day that worked more against her than for her.