CAN BERNIE BE ANOTHER BARACK ?

There is an irresistible desire to compare the populist Bernie Sanders with the populist Barack Obama who beat out the self same Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Presidential nomination 8 years ago. In both situations the underdog was initially way behind in the polls but steadily narrowed the gap. Both were improbables that attract record crowds and have messages that resonate. Both were considered outsiders from traditional party politics thereby attracting a younger demographic that otherwise were totally disillusioned with Washington. Both competed against the establishment candidate Hillary.  Both are transformative figures. Both are charismatic but Barack is up there with Martin Luther King in some of his orations. 

So before someone can say to Bernie, "I know Barack Obama and you are no Barack Obama", let us see whether it can happen again and look at what did the first Democratic debate show if anything?

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE - A WALKOVER FOR HILLARY?

Jay H. Ell will resist the temptation to dwell too long on the differences between the Democratic forum and the raucous, unruly and undignified Republican circuses and limit his comments to the Democratic race. It is however fair to contrast the professional way the Democratic participants stuck to the issues even when confronting their opponents. The glaring difference that the debates have illustrated was that the GOP is still racked by division and the Democrats are, in spite of shadings, all on the same page.

There appear to be two spins on the outcome of the first debate  - those of the pundits and those of the man in the street that, on their face, appear to be diametrically opposed. 

The consensus of those in the know is that Hillary nailed it. Here are examples of some of the headlines: Washington Post - Hillary Towers Over Her Rivals; Time - How Hillary Won the Debate; Fox News - Well of Course Hillary Won; The Daily Beast - Hillary Scorches Her Rivals; The Rasmussen Reports - Hillary Sweeps the Tables; Newsmax - Hillary Blunts Out Bernie With Debate Showing; Morning Joe - Hillary Took Charge; The New Yorker - Hillary Wins Big in Vegas and New York Times - Hillary Clinton Turns Up the Heat on Bernie Sanders. They all confirmed what the TV pundits enthused post debate - Hillary wowed them.

As Eugene Robinson wrote in The Washington Post, "The GOP were right to fear Clinton".

Not only, according to the poo bahs, did Hillary polish off Bernie and the other three no name brands she put paid to Joe Biden who was waiting in the wings for the call. There appears to be no need for him to enter the race at this late stage as he is in addition a distant third in the polls. His non entry will help Hillary even further.

So all in all a pretty good night at the Vegas tables for Hillary. She broke the bank at Wynns. (Wynn by the way is an out and out Republican). But just like at the tables there can be more than one winner and that turned out to be The Berne.

THE MAN IN THE STREET

Inevitably there are the focus groups and CNN had a large one made up of Democrats and Independents who to everyone’s amazement thought Bernie had won. Obviously the criteria being put into play by the professionals were not the same as the voters in the focus group. Then Jay H. Ell listened to a morning talk show on National Public Radio where all the pros lauded Hillary for her impeccable performance and then they opened the phones, the e mails and the tweets. Lo and behold most of those that bothered to respond thought good old Bernie had won the debate! There is an online Democratic site “Democrats Unity” that has a straw poll with Bernie getting 49% support and Hillary just 20% of a 155,000 persons who clicked in. In the two early state primaries polls Bernie is closing in on Hillary in Iowa and is ahead in New Hampshire

Bernie by the way had 4,000 debate watch parties with a total attendance of a 100,000. He had with Hillary the highest collection of donations last cycle, $26,000,000. All his were made up of small donations. Then the following day after the debate his war chest  expanded by another $2,000,000. All made up of tiny amounts.

You know who was doing this last time out - Barack Obama! 

WHAT IT OBVIOUSLY MEANS AT THE MOMENT 

The fact is that an obscure disheveled elderly politician who is not even a Democrat but an Independent who is an unashamed socialist appears to be threatening the odds on favorite to win the Democratic nomination. This has to mean something. What it means is that the public are fed up with politics and politicians as usual. Bernie, who honeymooned in Russia many moons ago, tells it as it is. When he concedes to Hillary that her e - mails are a ridiculous diversion it is not considered a mistake of a clumsy neophyte it is rather perceived as genuineness of a patriot who does not wish to score points but rather debate issues. 

The Berne's message of redistribution of wealth is unadulterated and his cry that all the other candidates are contaminated by money rings true. He has no link at all to any moneyed corporation. While Hillary, for the most part is sounding honest, she still is a politician who has links to corporations and who one therefore can have legitimate doubts that she might not put her agenda into effect. The fact that Hillary is picture perfect and he isn’t makes him more authentic. His stumble over gun control which would be a major big deal for any other Democrat was given a pass as he reminded all, with pathos, of the fact of life that guns mean different things in his rural State as opposed to an urban setting. Even Bernie has to get elected the faithful nod. He is totally at sea outside his message but at the moment his cry to economic war seems to be enough. The mantra that the country is run by fat cats who control the politicians for their financial gain and to everyone else’s detriment has sunk in to his chunk of the electorate and is overriding every other factor at the moment.

 BERNIE AND TRUMP?

Now the one feature Bernie and Donald have in common is they are not regarded as politicians. One can argue that what the Vermont senator represents to the left is what the business tycoon epitomizes for the right. In fact the disillusioned on the right have been around, as the Tea Party, for some time and have already taken over the GOP. However they are still not to happy with politicians and they want The Donald and if not him Carson and if not him Ted Cruz, who although a politician is hated by them all. The Tea Party are massively disheartened. Their party cannot even elect a Leader of the House of Representatives. All they have for their efforts is anarchy.

So there is a similarity between the Right and the Left and that is that they are both fed up with politics as usual, as are their standard bearers, The Berne and The Donald. Hillary is more than just a politician she is the Establishment. (One wonders what the short tempered Donald would have to say if the Congress held up his Government. He would simply just fire them Jay H. Ell supposes).

 The Berne has a coherent message and one does not know what will come out next out of The Donald’s mouth. Interestingly Donald like Bernie has not got one penny from the fat cats. So the two represent something in common on different sides of the political spectrum.

 BERNIE IS NO OBAMA AND IS DEALING WITH A DIFFERENT HILLARY 

While Trump has to have a chance at the GOP nomination one cannot imagine Bernie emerging triumphant as the latter is not only not a Barack, with the machine that he had behind him, he has a different Hillary to deal with. Obama had plenty of the moneyed people. While Barack may have not been The Establishment he had the not inconsiderable Chicago establishment and machine behind him as well as luminaries like Democratic Senate Leader, Harry Reid. In addition he had a wide embracing knowledge of all aspects of government. Sanders is really a one message candidate. Outside of inequities in wealth and the concentration of resources into the 1% there is a resounding void.

Clinton’s expected opponent would be the old GOP Establishment’s Jeb and currently she is leaving him standing. If her opponent was Trump the demographics would kill him. So she really does look the part. She has an encyclopedic grip on the issues, is relaxed, appears less contrived and all the cognoscenti cannot be hailing her in a vacuum. She is the only one standing that is qualified for the job. So the almost harpy attitude of the last cycle with her and Bill losing it at the realization of what had originally seemed a formality, is not in evidence this time around. They have had 8 years to put it right.  

Most of her obstacles are parting just like the Red Sea did for Moses. Supposedly Benghazi and her e mails were hurdles but what with Head of the GOP in the House of Representatives admitting the whole thing is political and just now a Republican Member of the House agreeing that it was just designed to discredit her, the hearings will have no credibility. Added to that is a Republican staffer who claims he was fired because he resisted the pressure to gear the process in a purely partisan direction. That will have legs as a legal challenge is pending. Then you had Bernie himself echoing the mood of the Democratic constituency that they are not going to be waste time with her e mails. 

Now that the media are treating her as if she has been reinvented, her Benghazi hearings will be broadcast live. Another opportunity for her to shine. With what has transpired in an investigation that has gone on longer than Watergate the GOP can only look like hopeless bullies and her a dignified and capable victim.

She is taking nothing for granted as her highly rehearsed flawless performance at the debate showed. She is organizing like mad. She has a ton of money and PACS galore so even if she loses Iowa and New Hampshire she will win South Carolina and Nevada and all those Southern caucuses and Michigan and Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin and on and on and will have all the super delegates thrown in. It is just so hard to imagine Bernie with his one stump speech and being clueless on foreign affairs marching through America increasing his support. Remember he still is well behind Hillary in the national polls. Hillary is leading 2 to 1.

But the fact that makes Jay H. Ell so sure that Hillary is the business is that when the groups that support The Bern are asked who they think the Democratic nominee will be they overwhelmingly answer Clinton. Ultimately they all know to get things done you have to have the skills and political connections to effect this. In this department the Clintons are numero uno. Meanwhile everyone is enjoying themselves and going along for the ride. 

GOP SHOUD TAKE NO SOLICE FROM BERNIE OR ANYTHING ELSE

Sanders, whatever happens, has at least richly added to the conversation unlike Trump, who himself is “rich, really rich” and talks nonsense about deporting 12 million people and building a wall to rival the wall of China. Or Carson who blames the victims of a mass shooting. Or Cruz who cheers on the Government being shut down and is living proof that the Tea Party are a party of protest not government. Or Fiorina who sees things that nobody else sees. Or Rubio who changes his position every other day. Or Huckabee who maintains thieves should be sold into slavery….. (No wonder poor Sheldon is having nightmares as to who to give his money to).

What with the Benghazi e - mail scandal fizzling the GOP seem to have no agenda other than to pray that Bernie gets the Democratic nomination. However in the unlikely event that Bernie executes he would probably beat any GOP candidate. The same demographic works for him as does for Hillary and in this milieu droves of Republican supporters may just stay at home. Also don’t forget Bernie is soft on guns! 

He would also be the first Jew in the WhiteHouse, albeit non professing or practicing!

And as Jay H. Ell has predicted earlier the shambolic GOP, who prayed for the House and the Senate so they could govern and it was granted but "it was not good" because they can’t even elect a leader and are en route to losing the Senate and House seats as well.

PUTIN AND OBAMA - NEW WORLD VIEWS

The two cold war adversaries, the USA and USSR, through their leaders Vladimir Putin and Barak Obama have cast a totally new outlook on how they view their respective countries’ role in the Middle East specifically and the world generally. The Middle East scenario has dramatically changed in the past few months and Putin is climbing in while Obama is generally climbing out. Putin has added a worrying wrinkle for Israel as he hinted to Obama in their New York talks that he resented Israel’s interference in Syria! 

The conventional wisdom is that both of them have lost it - Barak, who is abandoning American supremacy and Vladimir who is recklessly plunging in where angels should fear to tread. However their behavior is far from unpurposeful and there is a consistency to their moves which is striking. In short Putin yearns for the old USSR glorious Imperial days and Obama is becoming more and more isolationist harking back to the USA in the twenties and thirties between the two World Wars.

The other plank in the American Premier’s platform is making peace with the world. Rapprochement with Cuba has been a priority, the Iranian nuclear deal and massive Trade Pacts have been assiduously worked upon and he has achieved his objectives in all of them. Against all odds the Senate voted to give him “fast track” authority to negotiate trade deals. His most recent accord with the Pacific rim countries involves 12 countries and forty percent of world trade. The deal in geo political terms is enormous and is a counter to China in their own backyard - a point missed by most commentators to date. Like all his transformative moves this has already raised the hackles of members on both sides of the aisle but Jay H. Ell’s gut feeling is that the Republicans will push the Pacific Pact through.

THE NEW MIDDLE EAST (ME) - THE PALESTINIAN/ISRAELI
CONFLICT

The central focus in the Middle East has changed from the Israeli Palestinian struggle to the battle between two Sunni factions and the Shiites with Israel lining up with the Gulf State Sunnis, Egypt and Jordan. No longer can anyone claim with a straight face that there would be peace in the region if only Israel would give the Palestinians their chunk of land. Abbas is threatening to tear up the Oslo accords a circumstance that would have previously sent diplomats scurrying  back and forth to avert a fate worse than armageddon but it barely made page two. Bibi made a monumental speech to the UNO and not only was no one there to listen if he hadn’t put it in Facebook no one would have known about it. Apparently he paused for 44 seconds and that is about the only content of his speech that got coverage. A far cry from the screeds that poured out when he addressed the UN and Congress last year. A reality he would be wise to take note off. His appearance last time was seen very much in the context of the local political scene where he was snubbing Obama and the Democrats in favor of the GOP.

Before leaving the topic of the Palestinian Israeli conflict just one recent development Abbas in his frustration is inciting more and more violence. He hasn’t quite yet called for the third Intifada but he is not far off. His tactic is simple. He will provoke a strong Israeli response which he will then use to whip up opinion against Israel. It works all the time and he then changes the narrative to a general attack on Israel and their denial of Palestinian rights. Inevitably in the retailiation there is civilian death and condemnation of Israel for not knowing that Paestinians put women and children in mumition sites. (Blog: Abbas and Arafat Same DNA - So Let's Get Real).

This incitement is out of character stuff for Mahmoud but he is desperate as his slips off the center ME stage. It is unlikely to get him anywhere cause nobody is really interested. Yes they will shove up his flag at UNO, make him an honorary member of the club and back his resolutions but there are far bigger fish to fry in the region. No lesser think tank than The Brookings Institute believes the more realistic approach to the age old conflict would be for both sides just to concentrate on Palestinian rights and worry about the two State solution later. 

Just one worrying aspect the religious violence is racheting up at the Temple Mount. Fundamentalists from both sides are confronting one another and Bibi has stepped in to make the Israelis stick their part of the deal. However, the Palestinian aggession far outweighs the odd Israeli fundamentalist outrage and although the rest of the world are not much interested the Israelis are and very soon a counter offensive will be unleashed that needless to say everyone will condemn.

SYRIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

So back to Syria which is the nidus of the region’s instability. The country is in a shambles four years into a catastrophic civil war that has splintered it into areas controlled by various rebel groups, a small area that Assad still is in charge of and ISIS who has created a blood stained caliphate together with the land it has captured from Iraq. There are 4 million refugees as a result of the Syrian civil war who are pouring into Europe unhinging the European Union but not fuzzing Putin one bit. He has on his blinkers and is focussed on one great big objective - his good self and a resuscitation of Russia’s glory days going back to Peter the Great. 

The Russian Tzar is going into the changing Middle East with a vengeance while the American Commander in Chief is not much interested in being a Commander. Nowhere is this more evident than in their respective policies on Syria which fit into their overall philosophy for the future. 

Putin is looking for every opportunity to expand Russian influence in the world. Part of his modus operandi is to be on whatever side Barak isn’t on. In the breakdown in the Middle East with its three emerging power blocks he has chosen to mix in with a vengeance. He has joined the Shiite faction lead by Iran. The latter have Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas in their stable and are vying for dominance in the region and the Muslim world while punctuating their imperialist aims with dire threats to annihilate America and Israel. Putin, behaving like the old comrades of yore - saying one thing and doing another - is openly siding with Assad of Syria in his fight against the rebels, bombing the latter’s strongholds. While paying lip service to the mantra that ISIS is the region’s and the world’s greatest threat he is supporting Assad rather than getting rid of the Islamic fundamentalists. He is there with a veritable arsenal, air power, a naval base, missiles that travel a 1000 miles and “volunteer” troops. This is no mean commitment and in characteristic bravado he doesn’t give a hoot what anyone else says. 

He sees his future in an intact Assad.

His recent infringements of his yesterday’s friend,Turkey’s air space which resulted in a virulent response from the Turks and NATO which have been shrugged off by the old USSR KGB operative as just part of doing business. This attitude of Vladimir is JUST pervasive - Crimea Ukraine - he just does not care.

Obama has just stuck to his limited agenda in all this. He is not going to declare war on Putin for bombing one of his rebel allies and says so. He will express irritation but that is it. There is no way that he sees himself climbing boots and all into the region. He is bombing ISIS a bit and claiming that they are the real worry and supporting selected anti Assad rebel groups. The latest reports indicate that he is even giving up on that.  

In retrospect he has done what he ran on -  only one war to fight and that was in Afghanistan to get rid of the Taliban and Osama. He pulled out of Iraq and nothing but nothing is going to get him going back there. All the taunts in the world, from the likes of McCain that he is turning the land of the brave into the land of the meek and letting Putin walk all over him and the USA, does not move him one bit. In short let the Middle East sort itself out no more American blood will be spilled and not too much treasure spent either. 

The American Chief cannot see this ending with Assad in place. He has to go! That is where he and Putin really part ways.

As far as Israel is concerned they can all shoot each other up - whoever wins wants to annihilate them. Other than the odd sortie where they see their interests threatened and humanitarian aid which they afford there line is similar to Obama's on Syria and ISIS for the moment.

WHAT ABOUT OUR ALLIES THE ISRAELIS AND THE GULF STATES?

But how does the two great powers current policy play with Israel and the Gulf States? Obama has reassured that he has Israel’s back and so far, when the crunch is on, he has delivered. But his laissez affaire attitude to the whole region has the Israelis and their allies tearing their hair out. The Iranian nuclear deal resulted in a cleavage between the two nations that has not been witnessed in decades. This chasm was undoubtedly exacerbated by Netanyahu, addressing Congress, with neither Boehner or him informing Obama of the invitation and with Bibi to this minute screaming the odds about the “bad deal”. Jay H. Ell believes that the deal was ill advised but is convinced, like large sections of the Israeli military and security apparatus is, that Israel and its Gulf allies can take any out any facility if and when the time arises. In addition as a result of the “bad deal” Israel is much more powerful in the region with the Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan as part of their new block. That with Egypt appealing to the Arab world to the make peace with the Jewish State must really warm the cockles of Bibi’s heart. 

So Barak has not yet been put to the test as to whether he has abandoned his allies. Jay H. Ell feels notwithstanding all the anger that his inexplicable Iran stance has engendered should Israel really be pressured he will deliver. 

Israel should be far more worried about Vladimir who prior to his Syrian adventure was very pro the Israeli State. Netanyahu was off to Moscow when the old KGB operative placed all that hardware in Assad’s hands, all of which could easily hit Israel. If push came to shove one has to believe that the Russian Premier is far more likely to sell out on Israel than is the American President. The Russian Insider News reported that Putin told Obama that he would clip Israel’s wings in stopping its attacks on Syrian soil. What a chutzpah from this Johnny Come Lately to the region telling Israel what it can and can’t do in the Middle East. 

PUT A SOCK IN IT BIBI

Bibi has to be wishing that he hadn’t been so arrogant with Barak. (Why oh why couldn’t he have done what other disputing Israeli PM’s have done - discuss this in private. Why this need to humiliate him?) How he would now love to be able to pick up the phone and seek reassurance from the American Commander in Chief. Why he burned those boats is just as much a reflection of his childish personality as pouting Putin’s behavior is towards him. He can hardly expect that the guy whom he snubbed in his own backyard is going to dial and say, “Don’t worry Bibi”. He is just going to let him stew. 

Now Bibi just in case you want to start maneuvering against Barak again, stop!  The GOP are in a mess at the moment and have other projects. You can rely on McCain, Graham et al to look after it all. You butt in again you will once again be used by the GOP in their fight with the Dems and continue the partisan divide on Israel that you helped to create and that does not serve the cause. 

So just sit tight.

AT THE END OF THE DAY WHAT COULD HAPPEN

Whichever way one looks at the scenario the future ain’t what it used to be:

 * While Israel still has threats of boycotts, disinvestment and sanctions there is nothing really threatening their existence at the moment. Abbas is doing more of the same with the objective of getting the world’s hackles up but he like Netanyahu has to appreciate that they are the sideshow at the moment. Netanyahu will clamp down hard on the unrest. The pair’s problems are far from over but nobody is going to get involved while Syria and ISIS are occupying prime time . 

* Russia like all colonial powers and the wannabes will never learn. In Putin’s desire to play with the big boys and distract the Russians from their domestic economic woes he is on the slippery slope to escalation. Next stop is getting into Iraq. He is on a roll. The biggest insult to him is the fact that the good old USA won’t even take him on. Other than to make arrangements not to get in each other’s way and moan diplomatically, Barak is not giving them the time of day. The Turks and the Saudis, who have a big stake in backing the Syrian rebels, may not be as sanguine about Moscow’s proactive role in the region. If Putin thinks he can scare them off he has another think coming. The Saudis and their Gulf allies are in a major battle with Iran for domination in the region and Muslim world and are not going to let a key Iranian ally like Assad off the hook so easily. If they and Egypt can forgive and forget their millennia old enemy Israel over this they are not going to be frightened off by Putin’s bluster.

* Putin’s best case scenario is that by his strong arm presence he can “force” the USA, the Saudis, the Turks and other parties to let Assad survive in a post war truce. If he can he will be the broker of this catatonic impasse with all the prestige that accompanies such a powerful mover and shaker. Iran will be ecstatic as its empire will still be intact. Then according to script everyone can cheerfully go on and fight ISIS. One fat hope that that can happen. Putin does not begin to understand the dynamic of the Middle East. This is not some regional barnyard scrap over a fence this is a struggle over the future of Islam. He just cannot march in and takeover.

* So Putin better be contemplating Plan B.

* As a sop to the USA Russia will join in and attack ISIS as well. This does not change the equation however. 

* America is in election mode and about the only issue that every prospective presidential candidate agrees upon is that Israel’s existence is top priority, If its survival was threatened there is no way that America would not intervene. Israel is not going to back off if they view Syria a threat and Obama, even if he wanted to, is not going to stand by if Putin threatens Israel. So it appears that Vladimir has not really thought this one through. 

To be continued and all bets are off one just does begin to guess how this cookie will crumble.

GUNS - WHAT WILL IT TAKE?

Another day another shooting - and nothing budges. Guns are a metaphor for all that is wrong with America. The sick statistics from Oregon Community College are matter of a factly announced - 10 dead, 9 injured  and an arsenal of 14 firearms. According to the organization, Gun Violence Archive, this is the 265, yes 265th, and the 45th in schools, mass shooting this year! (The Gun Violence Archive formed in 2013 to record the sickly scores while Washington fiddles). The total number of gun related incidents this year to date is close on 40,000. The number of children under 17 dead from guns is 2,500. Five thousand parents and 10,000 grandparents and their siblings, relatives, friends, acquaintances have houses of mourning for their loss in this senseless slaughter. Society is generally shielded from nearly all of the mayhem as a shooting not involving several deaths barely merits a mention in the media. The 24 hour news cycle just cannot fit it in. The “minor” tragedy is no longer “sensational” and it is impossible to get ratings reporting on just one or a few dead. 

GUN CONTROL - A SICKLY PARTISAN ISSUE BOLSTERED BY SICK PEOPLE, SICK ARGUMENTS AND BLOOD STAINED CAMPAIGN FUNDS

Gun control, like abortion, contraception, welfare, income inequality and the death penalty is a partisan issue. The same party that tears the world apart with blood dripping forceps fighting for the sanctity of unborn life while simultaneously fighting to the death for the death penalty, go to the ends of the earth to protect the rights of slaughterers to buy as many A. K. 47’s as they like. The enabling Congressmen rationalize their bargain with the sick NRA gun lobby that hold sway over them like grim reapers. They justify their indifference to their pact with the devil by a distorted interpretation of the second amendment that in 1791 allowed guns in conjunction with a “well regulated” militia to be in the hands of private citizens. So to perpetuate this insane holocaust there is no pretense at rational debate but rather reliance on an arcane amendment written 225 years ago for an entirely different circumstance - to protect us against the English. Not because it is not right or wrong to allow virtually anyone to create an arsenal that would have made Al Capone blush, rather the Constitution says we can!

 IF IT IS THE MENTALLY ILL WHY DON’T YOU DO SOMETHING!!

Then the mentally ill are used as a scapegoat for employing a far more easily obtainable agent than heroin, death machines, to act out their insanity. The partisans believe blaming the mentally ill is a more palatable solution to the anarchy than eliminating the killing contraptions. However the same protagonists are not in the forefront campaigning for the sums needed to fund the hopelessly inadequate mental services in the country. (Any ER Physician will tell you that they board psychotics who have threatened to harm themselves or others for days in the ER as there are no psychiatric beds available for their admission).

 They are not only not in the forefront for lobbying for resources for mental health but rather these self same intrepid Congressmen oppose any additional appropriations  to treat the epidemic of mental illness in this country. It is forgotten that Ronald Reagan emptied the mental institutions to let the inmates roam homeless or reside in jail. The figures of incarcerated mentally ill are as astounding as those on gun deaths. In 2012 there were over 350,000 diagnosed mentally ill in prison - ten times the number in State psychiatric hospitals in the whole of America. The reason for this is put down to hopelessly inadequate psychiatric facilities. In 1955 there were over a half a million institutionalized psychiatric patients and now there are only 35,000. Fifteen percent of prison inmates and 24 percent of jail inmates exhibit psychotic symptoms according to a Department of Justice Report. That is amazing as those that commit homicide and suicide largely come out of the psychotic pool in addition to the mass murderers. It is obvious where these psychotics are now billotted - the prisons that are not designed to effect psychiatric care. 

So there really is a mental health problem and it does contribute to gun deaths in far greater numbers in suicides and homicides in addition to the insane carnages,  So don’t just stand there do something! 

CARRY ON RATIONALIZATION

Then the partisans argue that it is not the guns that do the killing but the “people”. Guns sure help especially those that have scores of rounds that can be fired in a second mowing the innocents that fall like wheat in their wake. 

Then there is the ultimate cynical intellectualization  - sell more of these rat tat tat automatons of carnage. Let everyone be armed to the teeth so that when the “bad guys” unleash their liquidation “the good guys” can mow them down. What a way to live or die as the case may be. Arm the teachers, the attendants at all places of sport and entertainment, restaurant servers, nurses, and all the other areas where citizens congregate. 

If there is an argument as to who are the bad guys there is a precedent from the Wild West, as to where the blame belongs. The guy who draws first is the “baddy.” So if the “goody” shoots first the “baddy” can argue that he was just carrying around all that stuff for protection. This is not just funny. There were ex military personnel in the Umpqua Community College who had licensed concealed weaponry. When asked why they didn’t intervene they argued that they had discussed this among themselves and as the SWAT team was en route they did not want to be mistakenly shot at. 

Extensive research has conclusively shown that wherever there are guns, regardless of why they were purchased there is more likely to be death - suicide, homicide or accident. There is no research that shows that having guns helped  prevent death. 

This  arming and allowing society to be vigilantes is unbelievably irresponsible. A well known Police Chief in Florida argued that it was difficult enough to train his policeman when to shoot now literally ill trained people of all walks of life are being given the green light to duel it out with a maniac. His remarks were apropos of the Jeb Bush “Stand Your Ground” legislation which gave anyone the cart blanche to shoot.

NRA POSITION

The NRA keep scorecards, not of the death of innocents, but how the elected representatives of society, Congressmen vote to guard the NRA's right to rain down hell on society. Those who obey their master’s voice are rewarded with blood soaked campaign funds but more significantly, those that don’t are actively ostracized and every ounce of influence is effected to replace them. The threats are not so veiled either. The NRA are the main reason that guns are a partisan issue.

To illustrate just how powerful the NRA are, Congress stopped the Center of Disease Control from keeping statistics on gun violence in the mid nineties at their behest. When President Obama issued an Executive Order for this to restart Congress would not fund the operation.

After the Sandy Hook disaster - 20 children and 6 adults cold - the shocked nation was treated to the NRA with its usual sanctimonious and self righteous statement - “Joining in horror, outrage and grief with earnest prayers for the families who suffered such an incomprehensible loss at such an unspeakable crime”, followed by an astonishing rant by their President, Wayne La Pierre, who blamed everyone excepting themselves. 

La Pierre harangued that the nation brags about its gun free zones leaving the children at school vulnerable to monsters and predators. (Untrue as was seen in Umpqua Community College catastrophe). The children needed to be protected like the banks and the President he rambled on. He blabbered that society is populated by an unknown number of genuine monsters… that are possessed by demons. He wailed that society had no national database of the mentally ill and that Federal gun prosecutions had dropped by forty percent. (His criticism of no database for the mentally ill comes strangely from the NRA who axed gun violence databases). He spluttered on about the callous and corrupt who sold deadly video games that poisoned the minds and offended every standard of a civilized society. The media, he continued, rather than face their moral failings, demonize lawful, (sic), gun owners. 

His final message was good guys with guns to fight the bad guys - police in every school. (Actually you need them in every class room not to mention the library and the gym). Wayne called upon Congress to introduce just that and use the money used for foreign aid to fund it all. La Pierre sagely argued that if the children were prized more than money than Congress would put into effect his strategy. 

The President of the NRA had no suggestion for the cinemas the malls and the rest of the 33,000 souls that depart annually from the American soil by gun shots.

WHAT WILL PERSUADE CONGRESS?

Ninety percent of society wants background checks and no guns for the mental disabled. In addition seventy percent want a national data base. While there is a preponderance of society that wants stricter gun laws there is a GOP Democratic split on the subject. However, the NRA members are not as divided. In a poll commissioned by Mayors Against Illegal Guns nearly 90% of gun owners believed that second amendment rights went hand in hand with keeping the guns out of criminal hands. 

Obama to his credit has tried and tried and tried. He has called on the electorate to consider the election a one issue election. The GOP candidates seem ready and willing to choose sides. Trump is already into the good guy bad guy answer. Jeb not expectedly maintained that “stuff happens”. As Governor he signed into law written by the NRA. Hillary would happily sign on - gun control has always been one of her things and Bill had a law passed limiting sales of the heavy duty stuff only to be repealed by the GOP Congress. Bernie Sanders, the angel from heaven is in a bit of trouble here as he has been at kindest wishy washy on the subject. This circumstance is as much reflection of the tentacles of the NRA. as it is to his belief system. However he has choice.. …

So it needs a massively concerted effort by the media, who should once and for all forget about ratings and lead in this regard. They should just not drop the issue after the last funeral in Oregon. Then there are the big money guys like ex Mayor Bloomberg and The Mayors for Illegal Guns, the Brady crowd, and Gabby Giffords and Mark Kelly who are battling night and day. Yet they are being outspent 6 to 1 by the pro gun crowd. They need a Bloomberg to rally the team and at least pony up enough money to take this on. To quote Hillary, “You need a movement”.

WHAT CAN BE DONE?

The time for pussy footing around has to be over.

1. Every gun in this country needs to be registered to an owner with a name and finger prints. Every owner needs a background check and those that don’t cut it need their guns confiscated. Every gun that is not reasonably used for hunting or protection needs to be handed in in a period of amnesty. No - one needs guns that can shoot screeds of bullets - the police don’t use them. Those that have guns need training  - you need a license to drive a car. (The NRA has thousands of trained gun handlers who Jay H. Ell believes would be only to willing to help). Their licenses should be renewed periodically.   

The English threat of invasion that evinced the Second Amendment has passed. 

2. Then the second plank to this platform should be addressed - psychiatric care for the mentally challenged. There is little doubt that the mass murder phenomenon is largely dictated  to societal neglect of the care of these people. This needs to be done with a vengeance as it would also result in a profound decrease in suicidal and other homicidal deaths. 

The cost of all of this is in the billions as Jay H. Ell has pointed out in one of his innumerable blogs on the gun death subject, (Tennessee, Colorado and All the Shootings - No Hope to Stop Them). One needs to consider this as a Public Health Problem and how we might prevent 33.000 deaths a year. (About the same number as are diagnosed with breast and prostate cancer). Using Cancer as a yardstick 124 billion is spent on research alone a year let alone treatment. Now almost nothing is spent on research into gun deaths - you don’t need too much research where there are obvious solutions. According to Mother Jones, the prestigious on line investigative site, gun violence costs society 229 billion a year which is the equivalent of the total bill for Medicaid nationwide. So probably, just guessing, a 10th of that is needed to get psychiatric care back to speed. 

3. To achieve any of this the stranglehold of the NRA hierarchy in controlling the agenda for society, patently against its wishes, needs to be broken. If this is achieved it can set a precedent for taking America back from the special interest groups and returning it to its peoples.

COME ON HILLARY

This is a natural issue for Hillary Clinton and so near to the hearts of her and Bill. This is an area which she has an unblemished record and Bill’s positive action to trade on. She is water treading at the moment and in a situation that calls for her just not making a mistake. This is an unnatural state for a Clinton. She can thump the tub and lead. She has already mooted an agenda. She needs to spearhead the movement she advocated. She has been able to go on attack now that the GOP presumptive Speaker of the House has admitted that the Benghazi hearings were political.

ALTERNATIVE

If none of this happens we can wince with slaughter house after slaughter house. In-between there will be the silent legions of suicides and homicides that will all add up to over 30,000 gun deaths annually with endless emotional and financial costs. The bad news is that the wait won’t be too long. The words of John Donne rung in my ears as I saw a young mother rush her two little babbling girls to the school bus:

“Ask not for whom the bell tolls for the bell tolls for thee” - 

PLANNED PARENTHOOD - AMERICA’S NEWEST NUMBER ONE SOCIETAL THREAT

Had it not been for Speaker Boehner’s epiphany, (Blog: Francis, Religion, Politics and Speaker Boehner), the House of Representatives would have voted for the shutting down of the United States Government unless Planned Parenthood had been defunded. (The fact that the Government does not directly fund PP was not considered relevant to the proceedings.) One of the last times such a drastic shut down for an alleged threat to society was perpetrated was in an effort to halt Obamacare, (ACA), which too was identified as the then worst threat in living memory to America. 

Planned Parenthood, (PP), is a not for profit organization that provides over 10 million health care services for 3 million, mainly women, patients a year. The reason for the intended action on PP is that the organization, allegedly, illegally, sells the fetal body parts that they have harvested from legally performed abortions. As a deterrent to this alleged activity the GOP Tea Party faction moved that Government funding for the organization should be shut down forthwith. 

What strikes Jay H. Ell is the fact that this issue has become the cause celebre of the Tea Party GOP and a main policy thrust for the 2016 elections.... that and Hillary’s e mails of course. 

LAST TIME OUT THEY SHUT THE GOVERNMENT OVER THREAT OF OBAMACARE

The fact that the selfsame naysayers have been proved wrong with Obamacare, (ACA), does not fuzz them. Notwithstanding their prophesies on Obamacare, the number of uninsured Americans has decreased by approximately 15 million citizens as reflected in the decrease of the percentage of uninsured from 18% to 11%. The bureaucratic process of enrolling patients is rolling along smoothly and Pew, Kaiser and other studies show tens of millions of dollar savings to States.  One rarely hears anything about the ACA from this crowd anymore as they are concentrating on their newest biggest threat - Planned Parenthood. And they are giving the PP threat a full go with Congress Committee Meetings and the like. 

While to date this Republican Tea Party crowd, who set the agenda and define who and what are the greatest threats, have not exactly been spot on, they are heavily into the bogeyman of Planned Parenthood as a delineating winning strategy for the next election. Jay H. Ell has spent much time attempting to clarify what this is all about and the possible outcomes of this tactic.

THE PROBLEM IN A NUTSHELL  AS SEEN BY THE PROTAGONISTS OF DEATH TO THE PP.

An anti abortion organization entitled the Center for Medical Programs, (CMP), spent a number of years creating a dummy front organization, Biomax Procurement Services, that ostensibly wished to purchase discarded fetal body parts for research.This organization then spent a large chunk of time ostensibly discussing and negotiating the purchase of such material with the Medical Director of PP recording their discussions. They then produced highly edited videos to which they added damning graphic of the trauma of abortion. They fervently believed that their sting operation would set the world on fire. They alleged that the PP was trading in fetal body parts and their whole operation was to do abortions in such a way as to preserve and sell these body parts. They portrayed PP as venal, illegal and homicidal in order “to set up a black market in body parts”. They called upon Congress to defund the PP. 

THE FACTS AS PP SEES THEM

PP  deny the CMP interpretations of their own videos maintaining that they were heavily edited and that nowhere is there any evidence that body parts are sold for profit.  They add that their activities have been investigated by several law agencies in several States and no wrong doing has ever been found. The only fact that they conceded was that it was inappropriate to have clinical conversations in non confidential public places with individuals who purported to be involved in bona fide activities. They further point out that the harvesting of this tissue for research was made law under Ronald Reagan.

The PP further maintain that just 3% of their services relate to abortion and none of these could be funded by the Federal Government or its agencies as the latter do not pay for abortion services. The moneys paid by the Government agencies to PP are for woman services such as for sexually transmitted diseases treatment and prevention, cancer screening, contraception and other women health issues. The PP bill for the services and are paid from Medicaid and Title X agencies which pay for set services. This amounts to $518 million dollars a year. So the money isn’t a handout or a lump sum grant it is for services rendered. The PP collects a similar amount from other sources and from there the abortions are funded. 

So to say that the government funds PP is a gross mischaracterization - The Feds indirectly pays bills, through Federally funded programs, for medical services rendered. The GOP thus wish to fire PP as a Health Care Provider to 3, 000, 000 women because it alleges, without proof that it is acting illegally - an extraordinary action for a crowd that is heavily into deregulation and belief that the market sorts out everything without clumsy intervention from the legislators. 

Put another way and taking this argument to its logical conclusion the hospital, health care system or doctor you attend is also funded by the Government as they too bill Medicare, Medicaid and Title X. Some of these health care entities do activities that are considered abortions by these folk such as inserting Intra uterine devices let alone the occasional one that allows its physicians to perform abortions. Should the Committee hold hearings on these health care entities and strip them of “Government funding”? Health care would grind to a halt. 

CONGRESSIONAL HEARING

The first of many planned Congressional Meetings was convened by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform and they had Ms. Cecile Richards, President of PP, on the stand for 5 hours. She was unruffled by the abuse, talking over of her answers and interruptions to her responses to questions asked. As Republican Congressman John Duncan opined, “Surely you don’t want us to be easier on you because you are a woman”. She was questioned again and again by Republican Representative Jordan as to why she initially apologized for the tone and statements of the original video. She repeated again and again that she believed that the setting for these discussions was wrong - a public place. Jordan refused to accept her reply. She was then challenged, “How much money does the organization makes from abortions”. She was hammered as to her salary which incidentally is on the lower end of CEO salaries for non profit organizations. She remained unfazed and dignified.

THE TONE OF THE HEARING SET BY THE CHAIRMAN

Ms Richards failed to recognize and explain a graph, presented by Chairman Jason Chaffetz.  It depicted information that showed, over the most recent period, a percentage increase in abortion activity as compared to other female services. Chaffetz,mercilessly demanded an explanation of the graphic which he claimed was derived from PP data. Finally, Ms. Richards countered that the figures for Chaffetz’s audiovisual came from an anti abortion group not Planned Parenthood. Chaffetz did not bat an eyelid at his grossly misleading presentation. The Chairman’s introductory speech was even more off the charts. He was tearful and appeared to blame Planned Parenthood for his mother’s death. He argued that the money spent on Planned Parenthood, (that is women’s health care), should be spent on cancer research. 

The Democratic Congress members countered that this so called investigation was part of the GOP war on women. Congressmen Gerald Connolly said he hoped the American women were watching. The audio and visuals tell it all he argued.  Connolly continued that the GOP believed in rugged individualism and personal liberties except when it came to women controlling their own bodies and making their own health decisions. 

THE IMPACT OF VIDEOS OUT THERE IN THE WORLD

There is little doubt that the videos were disturbing to anyone who watched them. Nobody likes the idea of abortions including those who support the women’s right to choose. The clinical discussions, particularly on such a sensitive topic such as fetal parts that are crushed or not crushed make even the most sanguine shudder. This particularly so when added ultrasound pictures by the Center for Medical Programs are presented of the abortion procedure….  Most lay people cannot even watch an intra abdominal operation on TV let alone seeing a minuscule bean sized fetus, blown up to fill the screen, being crushed. 

In the context of a doctor talking to those who need as perfect a tissue as possible to do research to cure disease the matter of factness is understandable. Remember too that in a way there is nothing in it for PP. All that videotaping over all that time with all that editing could not prove that PP recovered anything but their costs. Signed consent was obtained from the mother before tissue was harvested. 

Jay H. Ell worked in a busy South African Hospital when abortions were illegal and scores of women presented every week with incomplete back street abortions that on occasion resulted in sepsis, death and untoward sequela. These were not evil women but desperate and often poor. As a physician he was privy to the desolation and angst they felt when they believed that termination of their pregnancy was their only option. Representative Brenda Lawrence struck a chord when she lamented, “Men have no idea what women go through with health care.” This discussion reminded him of a story his father, an old time general practitioner, told him of a young woman patient who came to see him “for help” which he couldn’t provide. The next day he was called to her home. She was dead. She had poisoned herself. 

This whole scam begs the question, if PP stopped its fetal tissue donation program would the Center for Medical Progress and their supporters recognize their right to perform legal abortions? No they wouldn’t. Some of them even extend their opposition to contraception as well. But what should be a sensitive bipartisan debate has been cast as a key wedge issue in an election. This is an issue for respect and empathy from both sides as many opponents of choice have deep religious beliefs in the sanctity of life which they believe starts at the creation of the fertilized egg. Even preventing the egg from being fertilized to some represents abortion.

 RESPONSE TO THE GOP CAMPAIGN

The fact that the whole issue of Planned Parenthood’s existence is now a central focus means that the GOP Tea Party, believe that the issue is a vote getter in the upcoming elections. Not one of the Republican Presidential hopefuls has materially disagreed with the strategy and Carly Fiorina has made it the central plank of her campaign. Even milksop Jeb has countered that PP is not essential as other existing facilities could provide the care. (Jeb has lost it. Has he given a second’s thought at the infrastructure needed to provide 10,000,000 services a year, at Medicaid rates and for free. This in a health care system that is woefully short of Primary Care providers and Obstetricians and Gynecologists, many of whom who won’t even accept low paying Medicaid patients.)  

Now the GOP would not be giving it this priority on principle as they have bigger fiscal principles which they ignore because of lack of public support. They do not recognize Social Security or Medicare as sound GOP financial doctrine at all and would substitute these “entitlements” for self managed pension plans and tax credits or whatever in a heartbeat. But no-one attacks these cardinal pillars in campaigns anymore because society would reject the attacks out of hand. So how does society feel about this sustained attack on PP which has been spearheaded with blood dripping forceps, and crushed fetal heads?

Society is largely unmoved. The backing of Planned Parenthood is favored by 2 to 1 in the most recent poll conducted by USA Today. An even bigger majority were against shutting off the Government as a result of this issue - 73% - 19%. If the Government did get shut down the same poll would blame the GOP - 4 to 1- rather than Obama or the Democrats for “funding” PP. These results are indicative of previous samplings of the body politic and if anything show a hardening against Republican attempts to make this their key issue. And remember there are more and more Congressional hearings scheduled.

Representative Steve King (R -Iowa) cannot comprehend why the electorate has not responded to this barrage of gory revelations that have been non stop for the past two months. The GOP has used female spokespersons, to no avail, in this drive to “defund’ PP. Carly Fiorina has doubled down on her assertion of what she saw on the Center for Medical Progress’s video and was virtually called a liar on the influential “Meet the Press” program. 

While this campaign rallies the hard core base it makes the GOP chances of winning the Presidency even more remote than they already are. Boehner resigned because he finally had enough of it but the new retreaded Tea Party GOP are determined to go like lemmings to the ocean. 

It is interesting to note the Democratic National Committee used this attack on PP as a spur to its fundraising drive ending at the end of September. They noted that the “Republican sexist rampage” turned the last day of the quarter’s campaign into a record fundraising day. Also they  broadcast that this anti woman GOP assault on Planned Parenthood had backfired and helped them receive a million grassroots donations that quarter.  

AT THE END OF THE DAY

If they carry on like this the GOP will be hard put to retain the Senate let alone win back the Presidency. Remember you heard it here first!