The attack on Romney's business record as CEO of Bain Capitol is very, very, very serious. Romney decided to run on his business record and not on his tenure as Governor of Massachusetts. The latter would set him up as a flip flopper de luxe. His experience in business is the reason he should be President. This was the alpha and omega of his brittle credibility. He maintained that he had, inter alia, created a 100,000 jobs and with his business credentials was just the guy to lead us out of this mess.
ROMNEY'S UPHILL FIGHT
As has been detailed, in blog after blog, his fight to be the Republican nominee has been uphill and the "Anyone but Romney" candidates are many and won't give up. This business attack is something that will also not go away. Besides the merciless hammering he is getting from the "Anyone" crowd, this will dog him right till the end from all and sundry. It will also ensure that the end will be a long way off. He is now on the defensive both in the nomination battle and as the likely Republican nominee.
CORPORATE VULTURE
The attack led by Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry is unrelenting and involves, besides campaign stumping, literally millions of dollars of negatives ads. The latter is the selfsame medium that eliminated Gingrich as the number one "Anyone but Romney" candidate in Iowa. They have called him a "Corporate Vulture" and a crony Capitalist. Perry maintains that the workers suffer and a few net the loot. Gingrich links this to fraudulent activity going on in Washington and the corruption in Wall Street.
THE RETURN OF SARAH
Even Sarah Palin who has said nothing for months, has called for him to be transparent and reveal his income tax returns and full disclosure of "What Happened at Bain", the company that he was CEO of. This all without the Democrats saying a word.
The Daily Beast columnist Andrew Sullivan opined, "But with Romney, we have a singular example of someone who made a quarter of a billion dollars by firing the white middle and working class in droves in ways that do not seem designed to promote growth or efficiency, but merely to enrich Bain".
OBAMA'S RE ELECTION AGENDA
This issue fits slap bang into the Obama agenda for this election. The whole issue of the rich not paying enough taxes and making massive profits at the expense of employees' jobs is part of the manifesto Obama is slowly building up to run on. To have a living example of Romney's alleged deviant behavior exposed in all it's gory details by others can only bring glee to the Re Election camp.
ROMNEY'S COMPANY - BAIN
Bain is what is called a Private Equity Company where some of the worst excesses of Corporations are said to take place. There are known as Corporate Raiders. They do whatever it takes to make money from failing companies. In this context whatever happened at Bain is not going to go down well. The fired will have little empathy for the efficiencies of Capitalism, especially when Mitt got millions and millions out of the process. The fired are already being paraded around. Those in Mitt' position usually pay Capital Gains tax on income which is a lesser tax than their Middle Class secretaries pay. A point that icon Warren Buffet is making for Obama every day.
All this added to an insensitive remark, admittedly made in another context, that he Romney, "Enjoyed firing people". On top of this he maintained that these criticisms against Bain and him were "envy".
GAME CHANGER
This turn of events is the beginning of a game changer. The one candidate that had the where with all to take on Obama is now wounded and bleeding. This must have the Republican establishment pulling their hair out. Getting sophisticated theorists on Capitalism, from Milton Friedman's University of Chicago, to explain it all, is just not going to cut it. At best this is the ugly side of Capitalism.
Remember what happened to John Kerry when he ran against George W. Bush. Kerry ran on his war record which was from all objective accounts stellar. He didn't dodge the draft as was implied with Bush. He won three purple hearts. However a PAC, called the Swift Boat Veterans, smeared him of the face of the earth and said he was a phoney. The jury is still out on this issue but Bush won a second term on the doubt. Romney's credibility is far more vulnerable and in this context his credentials as a job creator are compromised.
One thing is for certain is that nothing is for certain. In this 24/7 media madness you will be challenged if you become relevant. Truth be told JAY H. ELL had believed that Romney's business credentials were the last thing that could be suspect. But then he believed that John Kerry was a war hero!
SOUTH CAROLINA AND BEYOND
So it is onward to South Carolina where, up to going into print, Romney is still far ahead. How this will impact this race is an open question. So many of the establishment have committed themselves to Romney that cannot back down now. Can, for example, the Tea Party South Carolina Governor, Nikki Halley, call it quits? However whatever happens in South Carolina this issue can only get worse. It is just too hard to see it turning into a positive for Romney. Damage control will obviously lessen the damage but damage there will be.
MEANTIME.....
* A 150 Evangelical leaders are meeting in Texas on a belated effort to get behind a single "Anyone But Romney" social conservative candidate. Like anything too late is bound to be too little.
* Obama raised a record $68 million this last quarter and is well on his way to creating a record billion dollar war chest for his Presidential re -election bid. This is not Political Action Committee money, (PAC), it is for donations that are limited. An individual, for example cannot donate more than $2,500 for any one candidate.
*You can ignore all polls as to match ups between Obama and potential candidates. It has been shown again and again that whoever is in the news is at a big advantage.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Monday, January 9, 2012
.. AND THE WINNER IS ROMNEY
Finally, it is beginning to shape up for the real battle as Romney makes heavy weather of becoming the Republican challenger to Obama. Republican commentators speak wistfully of a late candidate entering the Republican race but we have been through that again and again.... Also there are last minute attempts to consolidate behind one "true" Conservative candidate, but in JAY. H. ELL's opinion, it is not going to happen. However inevitable Romney's nomination might seem the road still promises to be pretty bumpy.
ROMNEY LIMPING HOME
"Cause he has high hopes, high hopes high in the sky apple pie hopes...". Mitt is still the leading contender after Iowa lived up to it's non expectations. (See blog "The Irrelevant Iowa Caucus and the Media Circus.) In spite of all the media hysteria the same number of Republican Iowians voted - 120,000, (the population of a small town) - as in the 2008 election. Mitt after nearly 6 years campaigning in Iowa got the same 25% of the voters as he got in 2008........ This after the big bohaai Romney made about addressing the world after the Iowa race, presumably in anticipation of a major victory. New Hampshire is not going to change the ultimate world either. All though you can be sure the Media will read all sorts of conclusions from shifts in the percentages the lesser lights get.
AS WE WERE
Thus the "Anything but Romney" candidates are still at 75%, notwithstanding the fact that the Romney and his PAC's spent millions in Iowa. The millions were largely devoted to knocking out the then Sarah Palin du jour stand in, Newt Gingrich, but another stand in, the 8th green bottle, in the form of Rick Santorum emerged as the"Anyone but Romney" candidate.
Now Rick is not really a man of the world. He lost his own home state, Pennsylvania, by 18%, in a senate race and inter alia believes that contraception is evil and that homosexuality leads to polygamy. He too has a ton of unsustainable baggage which if he remains the 8th green bottle for very long will be trotted out. Yet he only lost to Mitt by 8 votes. Santorum moves into the new reality, with some new campaign money but little organization and will soon be another notch in the Romney belt without Romney having anything to show for it.
Newt Gingrich's chances in this inane race have receded - cause he has been smeared of the face of the earth by Romney with millions of dollars in negative ads. His response was to call Romney a liar. He has vowed not to drop out of this race and his one objective is to expose Romney as being a phoney. He began in the New Hampshire debates and one thing for certain he is not going to leave this race with a whimper.
In addition, a new well-endowed Gingrich PAC has bought a video exposing a ruthless and greedy Romney as a vicious corporate raider, with examples of companies he took over, costing job after job. The video claims that Romney was worse than Wall Street and this is obviously a portent of what is to come. Romney's response thus far has been unimpressive. He does not answer the allegations at all and continues attacking Obama for job losses. The most damning part of the video is that it's author, is a former Romney top strategist.
The well funded, Perry, who was also trounced in Iowa, is soldiering on with Romney is in his gunsights. (This simile is allowed because they are all probably getting money from the National Rifle Association).
ONWARD WE GO
So the traveling circus now moves onto New Hampshire where Mitt is top of the pops. He was a Governor, (then a liberal Republican), of neighboring Massachusetts and his second home, is in New Hampshire. It is in this State that he does not have to argue forcibly that he is not a middle of the road Republican. Only, in New Hampshire are his poll numbers up in the 40's. The one percenter, Huntsman, has "concentrated" on New Hampshire and is finally making some impression. Maybe it will stand him in good stead in 2016.
NOTHING COULD BE FINER THAN TO BE IN CAROLINA
Then there is South Carolina where McCain is fronting for Romney. Romney has to start improving on his 25% in a real battleground and South Carolina is where it has to happen. The realists have to come to terms that only Romney has the resources to see this one through and the "Anything but Romney" candidates are still split and compromised. The Tea Party Governor, Nikki Halley, in that State has joined the establishment and she is backing Mitt.
THE LAST HOORAHS
So it has to be all over bar the shouting. And shouting there will be. And it will be ugly. Newt, still the only real potential candidate to Romney, has nothing to loose and will hammer Mitt. Perry too will make his last stand. Santorum will make claim to the mantle of being the true representative of the Republicans but to no avail. This will continue to Florida but has to fizzle out sooner or later. In the process it is all very draining and destructive to Mitt.
The 76 year old Ron Paul has had his 30 seconds in the limelight but he has had a very consistent message over these 76 years. He is running a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire. Paul has declared that this is his swan song and why shouldn't he too go out with a bang? If he decides that his bang is going to be as an Independant runner in the Presidential election this really heralds big problems for Romney. If the latter would have to choose he would rather be badgered by Paul, even exposing him to kingdom come, in Republican Primaries. This rather than taking away a sizeable slice of the anti - Obama vote in the real election.
All this is not very helpful to the uninspiring Romney, who, at best is the Republican candidate by default. His message could be summed up as, "These are my Principles and if you don't like them I have others..". But then Obama, too, has to win this. He is the ultimate "Anybody but Romney" Candidate. He has to close the deal unless he wants to become the tenth green bottle.
Obama's current situation and Romney's ultimate problems we will save for other blogs. Plenty can happen in a year to cogitate on when this two year Reality Show will sadly end. But have no fear another one will start up just two years after this one finishes....
ROMNEY LIMPING HOME
"Cause he has high hopes, high hopes high in the sky apple pie hopes...". Mitt is still the leading contender after Iowa lived up to it's non expectations. (See blog "The Irrelevant Iowa Caucus and the Media Circus.) In spite of all the media hysteria the same number of Republican Iowians voted - 120,000, (the population of a small town) - as in the 2008 election. Mitt after nearly 6 years campaigning in Iowa got the same 25% of the voters as he got in 2008........ This after the big bohaai Romney made about addressing the world after the Iowa race, presumably in anticipation of a major victory. New Hampshire is not going to change the ultimate world either. All though you can be sure the Media will read all sorts of conclusions from shifts in the percentages the lesser lights get.
AS WE WERE
Thus the "Anything but Romney" candidates are still at 75%, notwithstanding the fact that the Romney and his PAC's spent millions in Iowa. The millions were largely devoted to knocking out the then Sarah Palin du jour stand in, Newt Gingrich, but another stand in, the 8th green bottle, in the form of Rick Santorum emerged as the"Anyone but Romney" candidate.
Now Rick is not really a man of the world. He lost his own home state, Pennsylvania, by 18%, in a senate race and inter alia believes that contraception is evil and that homosexuality leads to polygamy. He too has a ton of unsustainable baggage which if he remains the 8th green bottle for very long will be trotted out. Yet he only lost to Mitt by 8 votes. Santorum moves into the new reality, with some new campaign money but little organization and will soon be another notch in the Romney belt without Romney having anything to show for it.
Newt Gingrich's chances in this inane race have receded - cause he has been smeared of the face of the earth by Romney with millions of dollars in negative ads. His response was to call Romney a liar. He has vowed not to drop out of this race and his one objective is to expose Romney as being a phoney. He began in the New Hampshire debates and one thing for certain he is not going to leave this race with a whimper.
In addition, a new well-endowed Gingrich PAC has bought a video exposing a ruthless and greedy Romney as a vicious corporate raider, with examples of companies he took over, costing job after job. The video claims that Romney was worse than Wall Street and this is obviously a portent of what is to come. Romney's response thus far has been unimpressive. He does not answer the allegations at all and continues attacking Obama for job losses. The most damning part of the video is that it's author, is a former Romney top strategist.
The well funded, Perry, who was also trounced in Iowa, is soldiering on with Romney is in his gunsights. (This simile is allowed because they are all probably getting money from the National Rifle Association).
ONWARD WE GO
So the traveling circus now moves onto New Hampshire where Mitt is top of the pops. He was a Governor, (then a liberal Republican), of neighboring Massachusetts and his second home, is in New Hampshire. It is in this State that he does not have to argue forcibly that he is not a middle of the road Republican. Only, in New Hampshire are his poll numbers up in the 40's. The one percenter, Huntsman, has "concentrated" on New Hampshire and is finally making some impression. Maybe it will stand him in good stead in 2016.
NOTHING COULD BE FINER THAN TO BE IN CAROLINA
Then there is South Carolina where McCain is fronting for Romney. Romney has to start improving on his 25% in a real battleground and South Carolina is where it has to happen. The realists have to come to terms that only Romney has the resources to see this one through and the "Anything but Romney" candidates are still split and compromised. The Tea Party Governor, Nikki Halley, in that State has joined the establishment and she is backing Mitt.
THE LAST HOORAHS
So it has to be all over bar the shouting. And shouting there will be. And it will be ugly. Newt, still the only real potential candidate to Romney, has nothing to loose and will hammer Mitt. Perry too will make his last stand. Santorum will make claim to the mantle of being the true representative of the Republicans but to no avail. This will continue to Florida but has to fizzle out sooner or later. In the process it is all very draining and destructive to Mitt.
The 76 year old Ron Paul has had his 30 seconds in the limelight but he has had a very consistent message over these 76 years. He is running a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire. Paul has declared that this is his swan song and why shouldn't he too go out with a bang? If he decides that his bang is going to be as an Independant runner in the Presidential election this really heralds big problems for Romney. If the latter would have to choose he would rather be badgered by Paul, even exposing him to kingdom come, in Republican Primaries. This rather than taking away a sizeable slice of the anti - Obama vote in the real election.
All this is not very helpful to the uninspiring Romney, who, at best is the Republican candidate by default. His message could be summed up as, "These are my Principles and if you don't like them I have others..". But then Obama, too, has to win this. He is the ultimate "Anybody but Romney" Candidate. He has to close the deal unless he wants to become the tenth green bottle.
Obama's current situation and Romney's ultimate problems we will save for other blogs. Plenty can happen in a year to cogitate on when this two year Reality Show will sadly end. But have no fear another one will start up just two years after this one finishes....
Thursday, December 29, 2011
THE IRRELEVANT IOWA CAUCUS AND THE MEDIA CIRCUS
The frenzy leading up to the Republican Presidential Iowa Caucuses is mind boggling. As Shakespeare might have argued the Caucuses, "Are much ado about nothing". At the end of the day, whoever may be anointed is the decision of a 120,000 Republicans who take the trouble to pitch up to a voting event. Thus organization, money and exposure are paramount. Exposure is critical but is useless if your supporters don't get to the caucus meeting places. So the media hysteria and their multiple daily polls are not terribly relevant as the 120,000, that go to the caucuses are not necessarily representative of the sample of the 3 million polled Iowians. Even more significantly Iowa is not terribly relevant in the grand scheme of the prolonged labour that involves the election of the Presidential nominee. As an aside the Iowa caucuses have not been terribly successful in predicting the ultimate Republican presidential candidate.
MEDIA BLITZ
All this does not stop the media giving us a repetitious blow by blow commentary of the fortunes and fluctuations of the Republican nonentities involved in this year's Presidential nomination fight. For practical purposes there are two candidates for the nomination - Romney and the "Anyone but Romney Candidate - du jour". Everyone marvels how one by one the latter candidate has risen and then fallen. There was Bachman, Perry, Caine, Gingrich and now coming to you live is Santorum. Each candidate is promoted by the media and then slaughtered by the selfsame media to create an ongoing meaningless story. Santorum, in case you missed it has moved up, today, December 29, from about 6% to 16% approval to be a potential third placed candidate in the Iowa caucuses!
AND THE WINNER IS...
For those who are really interested in reality there are really two serious candidates in the Iowa caucuses race. The two are Romney and Paul. Both have extensive organizational infrastructures. Whoever wins is not very relevant. Romney will be very happy with second place as he is going to win New Hampshire and a win for Paul will translate into ziltch. Gingrich, who was top of the pops a short week ago, has said if he comes fourth that is just fine as he is going to win South Carolina. If Santorum wins, a very long shot - so what. He will be very happy to emerge from the shadows to come third. Whatever happens he has not the money, the organization and the backing to go anywhere. Huntsman is not even competing in Iowa as he is going to win New Hampshire! And so it goes......
MEDIA CIRCUS
This will not stop the media commenting and interpreting the Iowa caucuses up the ying yang. Jay H. Ell cannot wait for January 3 evening TV programs where there will be banks of learned panels interpreting, projecting and forecasting on the deliberations of the hardy that have pitched up to the caucuses. As they say in the computer world - garbage in garbage out. One almost wishes for a sex scandal to refocus the media onto something else.
COMES DOWN TO REALITY.
Even if Math is not one's strong point the Romney candidate is running at about 25% consistently. The "Anything but Romney candidates", in aggregate are running at 75%. The Romney candidate is the favorite of the Establishment and he has money and organization. In all probability the "Anything But" candidate will be the even more flawed Gingrich. The nomination process will go on for a long time. The media need this because, believe it or not, the ratings are higher on this than anything else for the moment - oh for a war!
ANYTHING GOES?
Whoever the "Anything But" candidate turn out to be he or she has a potential 75% constituency to work with. Notwithstanding this it is hard to see the "Anything But", beating Romney. The Republicans, for whatever reason, have a tradition in nominating an old warrior. The Romney candidate then has to persuade the "Anything Buts", to join in to get rid of Obama. This is going to be a hard hard sell.
If the sale does go through, Romney has got to decide what he is going to run on and how. The key issues are jobs, taxation and government programs. The 75%, "Anything Buts", are heavily into gays, marriage and other social issues that the crucial independants are not remotely interested in.
So it is a pity that have to go through with the meaningless rituals of Iowa and even New Hampshire and South Carolina, because only when these are over can one really define the debate. And before we can define the debate the Republicans, if they are still one party, need to define what their argument is going to be against Obama.
The whole nomination process needs to be rethought. Every state should have the election on the same day. If the winner does not get 50% the a run off between him/her and the second placed should occur. Then of course money and PACS should be removed from this and the Presidential election and we will be on the road to some sort of sanity. But meantime Santorum has gone from 6% to 16% in the polls.....
MEDIA BLITZ
All this does not stop the media giving us a repetitious blow by blow commentary of the fortunes and fluctuations of the Republican nonentities involved in this year's Presidential nomination fight. For practical purposes there are two candidates for the nomination - Romney and the "Anyone but Romney Candidate - du jour". Everyone marvels how one by one the latter candidate has risen and then fallen. There was Bachman, Perry, Caine, Gingrich and now coming to you live is Santorum. Each candidate is promoted by the media and then slaughtered by the selfsame media to create an ongoing meaningless story. Santorum, in case you missed it has moved up, today, December 29, from about 6% to 16% approval to be a potential third placed candidate in the Iowa caucuses!
AND THE WINNER IS...
For those who are really interested in reality there are really two serious candidates in the Iowa caucuses race. The two are Romney and Paul. Both have extensive organizational infrastructures. Whoever wins is not very relevant. Romney will be very happy with second place as he is going to win New Hampshire and a win for Paul will translate into ziltch. Gingrich, who was top of the pops a short week ago, has said if he comes fourth that is just fine as he is going to win South Carolina. If Santorum wins, a very long shot - so what. He will be very happy to emerge from the shadows to come third. Whatever happens he has not the money, the organization and the backing to go anywhere. Huntsman is not even competing in Iowa as he is going to win New Hampshire! And so it goes......
MEDIA CIRCUS
This will not stop the media commenting and interpreting the Iowa caucuses up the ying yang. Jay H. Ell cannot wait for January 3 evening TV programs where there will be banks of learned panels interpreting, projecting and forecasting on the deliberations of the hardy that have pitched up to the caucuses. As they say in the computer world - garbage in garbage out. One almost wishes for a sex scandal to refocus the media onto something else.
COMES DOWN TO REALITY.
Even if Math is not one's strong point the Romney candidate is running at about 25% consistently. The "Anything but Romney candidates", in aggregate are running at 75%. The Romney candidate is the favorite of the Establishment and he has money and organization. In all probability the "Anything But" candidate will be the even more flawed Gingrich. The nomination process will go on for a long time. The media need this because, believe it or not, the ratings are higher on this than anything else for the moment - oh for a war!
ANYTHING GOES?
Whoever the "Anything But" candidate turn out to be he or she has a potential 75% constituency to work with. Notwithstanding this it is hard to see the "Anything But", beating Romney. The Republicans, for whatever reason, have a tradition in nominating an old warrior. The Romney candidate then has to persuade the "Anything Buts", to join in to get rid of Obama. This is going to be a hard hard sell.
If the sale does go through, Romney has got to decide what he is going to run on and how. The key issues are jobs, taxation and government programs. The 75%, "Anything Buts", are heavily into gays, marriage and other social issues that the crucial independants are not remotely interested in.
So it is a pity that have to go through with the meaningless rituals of Iowa and even New Hampshire and South Carolina, because only when these are over can one really define the debate. And before we can define the debate the Republicans, if they are still one party, need to define what their argument is going to be against Obama.
The whole nomination process needs to be rethought. Every state should have the election on the same day. If the winner does not get 50% the a run off between him/her and the second placed should occur. Then of course money and PACS should be removed from this and the Presidential election and we will be on the road to some sort of sanity. But meantime Santorum has gone from 6% to 16% in the polls.....
Sunday, December 11, 2011
HOW CAN OBAMA LOOSE?
The Republican Party Presidential aspirations have sunk even lower than reported in recent blogs, - The Republican Presidential No Hopers and The Republican Nomination Fight - What it Really Means? The nomination process which was scheduled to be a battle for the heart and soul of the Party has no credible torchbearers in the fight. Romney is the retreaded Center Right establishment candidate, and, Gingrich, as the last Conservative upright, has become the Sarah Palin stand in for the Tea Party candidates. Neither flawed candidate, in JAY H ELL'S opinion has much of a chance of beating Obama next year.
THE AMAZED NEWT GINGRICH - THE ANYONE ONE BUT ROMNEY CANDIDATE.
The fact that Newt finds himself as front runner must come as a shock to him. The fact that he is highly articulate, a shrewd debater, savvy and intelligent has never been in dispute. However, even by his own behavior he was never ever a serious candidate. His initial campaign committee walked out on him as they said he wasn't serious and that he was using his candidacy as a means to sell his and his wife's DVD's and Books. His Presidential campaign website was plastered with adverts for the latter.
This behavior was no surprise as it was a continuation of the reinvention of his persona. Since being thrown out by his own party as Speaker in 1998 he has earned $55 million in speaking, media and quasi lobbying ventures. Besides the fact that he has more excess baggage than any airline could carry he has nil establishment support. Already the attack adverts are coming out from former Republican colleagues who at, kindest, regard him as unstable. (I have little doubt that the Obama operatives are archiving them to run in the Presidential election should it be necessary).
One just hardly knows where to begin as to Newt's handicaps. Firstly, he has to retain the Conservative base that obviously has rejected Romney. He has not been involved in the Tea Party struggle per se and the current rationalization as to why they may actually come out and vote for him is that the Fundamentalist Family Values faction, just simply love a redemption story - three wives, public affairs, religious conversions from Lutherism, to Southern Baptists to Catholicism, is going to be a stretch. There are signs of this happening in the blogosphere and by the poll numbers.
Also can the Republican Party give Newt resources after his wholesale axing and the whole House of Representatives found him guilty of ethical violations? In addition Newt has nil organizational infrastructure of his own, little campaign money and only Donald Trump spouting his cause.
ROMNEY
Romney has no credibility with the Party base and the independents. He can't really reinvent himself again as he has reinvented himself so many times that his video clips are fodder for every show in town. He has however got the reluctant support of the establishment. The crisp point is that although he has been designated the front runner he always been second to someone else in the Polls. He cannot muster 25% of the Republicans so how on earth can he win 50% of the electorate?
The only smear that either Gingrich or Romney can't level at each other is flip flopping. They have both been on all sides of most issues except marriage.
So on the one hand you have a candidate with reluctant establishment support and on the other with reluctant party base support. One of whom will have to unite both factions.
OBAMA
Organizationally he has no peer and he is back at it again. Although his original supporters have to be suffering from a "let down effect", the demographics are still in his favor. There are more youth, more Hispanics and African - American voters, all who favor him by a wide margin. He already has close on $700 million, having hardly spent a penny while the Republican Candidates butcher one another. He is beginning to find his voice, pounding the stump, berating Congress and putting forward initiatives especially in relation to job creation and taxation.
For practical purposes The Occupy Wall Street protestors are ad idem with him. Their principal fight is against the disparity of wealth in the country and how the system favors the 1% which just happens to be one of Obama's present foci. They are regularly in the news and have now have an organizational structure with full time workers in offices. They are receiving donations by the ton. Also, as mentioned in JAY H. ELL'S November blog, they have a vast potential constituency besides students - the unemployed, the labor unions, the teachers, the police.....
HOW ON EARTH?
So why have the Republican Party not a slew of capable candidates to beat an incumbent that is operating in the worst economic recession since the Great Depression? An incumbent that up till now appeared to be aloof from the political process - leaving it up to the Congress. An incumbent that received, in his own words, a shellacking in the Midterm elections. An incumbent that promised change but ended up with the same old same old....
The reason is simple - what has a decent opposition candidate got to run on? The Republican establishment has no real policy other than to deny Obama a second term. This principal objective was outlined by the Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, way back. Also the establishment are at a loss as to what to do with the Tea Party who have hijacked the Party. The latter seem to have a stranglehold over the Republican Congress nominating process. The Tea Party are so focussed that their candidates appear to know nothing about the real world and cannot hd the electorate's attention for any length of time.
DOMINANT REPUBLICAN INFLUENCES
NORQUIST
The dominant personalities of the Republican Party seem to be on the fringe. Grover Norquist, who does not really believe in the Federal Government - he even believes that Defence should be outsourced to Private Firms - has a stranglehold on the Republican Congress members. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican members of the House of Representatives and 41 members of the Senate have signed his pledge not to raise any taxes whatsoever.
The Republicans are thus made to look ridiculous not to renew a middle class cut of $1500 a year and pay for it by increasing the taxes, by a few percent, of those that earn more than a $ 1,000,000 a year. Also looming is the renewal of the Bush tax cuts. Obama's proposal is not to renew the cuts of those earning more than $500,000 a year. Then also Obama has proposed the Roosevelt solution to rebuild the ailing infrastructure thus providing jobs and stimulate the economy. This needs bigger Federal Government and taxing the rich.
Who can defend this position of protecting the 1% millionaire earners when 70% of the polls support Obama on this? Apparently not Governors Daniels, Christie and Jed Bush. Nor is Governor Huckabee in evidence after running a credible second, way ahead of Romney, in the 2008 Republican Primaries.
So on the one hand you have the Tea Party focussing on social issues that have not grabbed the electorate's imagination in this economic crisis and on the other you have the Establishment that is petrified to move against the Tea Party. The only thing they have in common is to remove Obama - hardly a sustainable platform for 24 hour news coverage for two years.
TRUMP AND THE REST.
The other dominant force in Republican politics is Donald Trump. To say that he is intellectually bankrupt is an overstatement. Trump's major contribution to this Presidential cycle was to claim that his investigators had uncovered extensive information that Obama was not born in America - reopening the long dead birther issue. He challenged Obama to produce his long birth certificate to disprove him. When Obama did just that he trumpeted that America owed him, Trump, a big debt as he, alone, forced Obama to produce his long birth certificate!
He is a master at manipulating the media. Initially he, was a viable Presidential candidate and now he is calling the shots from the side. He has breakfast with Michelle Bachmann and Newt has a much publicized visit with him. Romney has a telephone conversation with him saying how he, Romney, highly respects him. Perry calls him for his opinion and everyone awaits to be anointed. Trump invites them all to debate on his TV show as the world awaits Trump's decision. He also promises to run as a third party candidate if he thinks no-one is up to speed!
In all of this the likes of the Bushs' shut up as do the official establishment other than to echo what a disaster Obama has been. Even Sarah Palin has been mute for months. She obviously wants no part of the mess she spearheaded.
So what price a Republican President? You can get 4 to 1 from the oddsmakers. Not a bad price for what will be a two horse race! But remember, in this day and age of endless types of continuos media, including this blog, anything can happen - Ron Paul by the way has an extensive infrastructure in Iowa!
THE AMAZED NEWT GINGRICH - THE ANYONE ONE BUT ROMNEY CANDIDATE.
The fact that Newt finds himself as front runner must come as a shock to him. The fact that he is highly articulate, a shrewd debater, savvy and intelligent has never been in dispute. However, even by his own behavior he was never ever a serious candidate. His initial campaign committee walked out on him as they said he wasn't serious and that he was using his candidacy as a means to sell his and his wife's DVD's and Books. His Presidential campaign website was plastered with adverts for the latter.
This behavior was no surprise as it was a continuation of the reinvention of his persona. Since being thrown out by his own party as Speaker in 1998 he has earned $55 million in speaking, media and quasi lobbying ventures. Besides the fact that he has more excess baggage than any airline could carry he has nil establishment support. Already the attack adverts are coming out from former Republican colleagues who at, kindest, regard him as unstable. (I have little doubt that the Obama operatives are archiving them to run in the Presidential election should it be necessary).
One just hardly knows where to begin as to Newt's handicaps. Firstly, he has to retain the Conservative base that obviously has rejected Romney. He has not been involved in the Tea Party struggle per se and the current rationalization as to why they may actually come out and vote for him is that the Fundamentalist Family Values faction, just simply love a redemption story - three wives, public affairs, religious conversions from Lutherism, to Southern Baptists to Catholicism, is going to be a stretch. There are signs of this happening in the blogosphere and by the poll numbers.
Also can the Republican Party give Newt resources after his wholesale axing and the whole House of Representatives found him guilty of ethical violations? In addition Newt has nil organizational infrastructure of his own, little campaign money and only Donald Trump spouting his cause.
ROMNEY
Romney has no credibility with the Party base and the independents. He can't really reinvent himself again as he has reinvented himself so many times that his video clips are fodder for every show in town. He has however got the reluctant support of the establishment. The crisp point is that although he has been designated the front runner he always been second to someone else in the Polls. He cannot muster 25% of the Republicans so how on earth can he win 50% of the electorate?
The only smear that either Gingrich or Romney can't level at each other is flip flopping. They have both been on all sides of most issues except marriage.
So on the one hand you have a candidate with reluctant establishment support and on the other with reluctant party base support. One of whom will have to unite both factions.
OBAMA
Organizationally he has no peer and he is back at it again. Although his original supporters have to be suffering from a "let down effect", the demographics are still in his favor. There are more youth, more Hispanics and African - American voters, all who favor him by a wide margin. He already has close on $700 million, having hardly spent a penny while the Republican Candidates butcher one another. He is beginning to find his voice, pounding the stump, berating Congress and putting forward initiatives especially in relation to job creation and taxation.
For practical purposes The Occupy Wall Street protestors are ad idem with him. Their principal fight is against the disparity of wealth in the country and how the system favors the 1% which just happens to be one of Obama's present foci. They are regularly in the news and have now have an organizational structure with full time workers in offices. They are receiving donations by the ton. Also, as mentioned in JAY H. ELL'S November blog, they have a vast potential constituency besides students - the unemployed, the labor unions, the teachers, the police.....
HOW ON EARTH?
So why have the Republican Party not a slew of capable candidates to beat an incumbent that is operating in the worst economic recession since the Great Depression? An incumbent that up till now appeared to be aloof from the political process - leaving it up to the Congress. An incumbent that received, in his own words, a shellacking in the Midterm elections. An incumbent that promised change but ended up with the same old same old....
The reason is simple - what has a decent opposition candidate got to run on? The Republican establishment has no real policy other than to deny Obama a second term. This principal objective was outlined by the Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, way back. Also the establishment are at a loss as to what to do with the Tea Party who have hijacked the Party. The latter seem to have a stranglehold over the Republican Congress nominating process. The Tea Party are so focussed that their candidates appear to know nothing about the real world and cannot hd the electorate's attention for any length of time.
DOMINANT REPUBLICAN INFLUENCES
NORQUIST
The dominant personalities of the Republican Party seem to be on the fringe. Grover Norquist, who does not really believe in the Federal Government - he even believes that Defence should be outsourced to Private Firms - has a stranglehold on the Republican Congress members. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican members of the House of Representatives and 41 members of the Senate have signed his pledge not to raise any taxes whatsoever.
The Republicans are thus made to look ridiculous not to renew a middle class cut of $1500 a year and pay for it by increasing the taxes, by a few percent, of those that earn more than a $ 1,000,000 a year. Also looming is the renewal of the Bush tax cuts. Obama's proposal is not to renew the cuts of those earning more than $500,000 a year. Then also Obama has proposed the Roosevelt solution to rebuild the ailing infrastructure thus providing jobs and stimulate the economy. This needs bigger Federal Government and taxing the rich.
Who can defend this position of protecting the 1% millionaire earners when 70% of the polls support Obama on this? Apparently not Governors Daniels, Christie and Jed Bush. Nor is Governor Huckabee in evidence after running a credible second, way ahead of Romney, in the 2008 Republican Primaries.
So on the one hand you have the Tea Party focussing on social issues that have not grabbed the electorate's imagination in this economic crisis and on the other you have the Establishment that is petrified to move against the Tea Party. The only thing they have in common is to remove Obama - hardly a sustainable platform for 24 hour news coverage for two years.
TRUMP AND THE REST.
The other dominant force in Republican politics is Donald Trump. To say that he is intellectually bankrupt is an overstatement. Trump's major contribution to this Presidential cycle was to claim that his investigators had uncovered extensive information that Obama was not born in America - reopening the long dead birther issue. He challenged Obama to produce his long birth certificate to disprove him. When Obama did just that he trumpeted that America owed him, Trump, a big debt as he, alone, forced Obama to produce his long birth certificate!
He is a master at manipulating the media. Initially he, was a viable Presidential candidate and now he is calling the shots from the side. He has breakfast with Michelle Bachmann and Newt has a much publicized visit with him. Romney has a telephone conversation with him saying how he, Romney, highly respects him. Perry calls him for his opinion and everyone awaits to be anointed. Trump invites them all to debate on his TV show as the world awaits Trump's decision. He also promises to run as a third party candidate if he thinks no-one is up to speed!
In all of this the likes of the Bushs' shut up as do the official establishment other than to echo what a disaster Obama has been. Even Sarah Palin has been mute for months. She obviously wants no part of the mess she spearheaded.
So what price a Republican President? You can get 4 to 1 from the oddsmakers. Not a bad price for what will be a two horse race! But remember, in this day and age of endless types of continuos media, including this blog, anything can happen - Ron Paul by the way has an extensive infrastructure in Iowa!
Saturday, November 5, 2011
DEMOCRACY, CAPITALISM AND OCCUPY WALL STREET.
WHAT'S IN A NAME?
In present day political discourse, the terms democracy, capitalism are used to label policies, candidates, issues and societies, in order, to either support or condemn all of the aforementioned. Labels are either convenient rally cries or condemnatory statements on anything, anybody and everything. The assumption is that we all know what these terms are and what they mean. These are not any old terms - these terms represent the very basis of what we believe should be the way our lives and our living should be based upon.
These labels also have an immediate historical perspective. Democracy / Capitalism triumphed over Totalitarianism / Socialism and Communism and therefore is the triumph of good over evil, right over wrong and what works and what does not work. (This so particularly in the USA where if you can, for example, successfully attach the label of socialist to Obama's healthcare proposal, then that is that).
THINGS DON'T MEAN WHAT THEY USED TO.
Firstly, although Communism failed in Russia and Capitalism took over the regime is still totalitarian. Similarly, in China where Capitalism has been embraced, totalitarianism reigns supreme. So unhappily the linkage no longer applies.
Firstly, although Communism failed in Russia and Capitalism took over the regime is still totalitarian. Similarly, in China where Capitalism has been embraced, totalitarianism reigns supreme. So unhappily the linkage no longer applies.
Secondly, in America, although Capitalism still reigns supreme there is an ever-increasing belief that Democracy has taken a big hit. The argument is that the immensely wealthy, together with their corporations, Political Action Committees and their lobbyists have taken control of the system making the process of Democracy meaningless.
While, there is no doubt that Capitalism has lead to a higher standard of living for literally 100's of millions in America, never before has the disparity in the mean wage between a CEO and an employee been as great - nearly 450 times. Also the 1% are earning 40% of the total USA income. Whereas in prior times, as a result of checks and balances, everyone was a winner now the rich are literally getting richer and the poor poorer. Also the perception is that the institutions of the rich gamed the system to create the financial mess and that the political infrastructure favor the 1%. This in a time of the severest economic circumstances since World War 11.
While, there is no doubt that Capitalism has lead to a higher standard of living for literally 100's of millions in America, never before has the disparity in the mean wage between a CEO and an employee been as great - nearly 450 times. Also the 1% are earning 40% of the total USA income. Whereas in prior times, as a result of checks and balances, everyone was a winner now the rich are literally getting richer and the poor poorer. Also the perception is that the institutions of the rich gamed the system to create the financial mess and that the political infrastructure favor the 1%. This in a time of the severest economic circumstances since World War 11.
Nowhere was this more clearly articulated, when Michael Moore joining the Occupy Wall Street movement, opined, that Capitalism had lost it's way and that just because we can vote for someone does not mean we have a Democracy. He opined further that the reason they were occupying Wall Street and not Capitol Hill was that Congress was the servant of the 1% that Wall Street symbolically represented. The protest had to be with the paymasters not their servants - Congress.
THE 99 PERCENTERS AND THE POLITICAL SYSTEM.
Thus the" Occupy Wall Street" essentially maintain that 1% control the future of America. (See Blog- The American Future - May the Best 1% win). Politicians have been caught of guard by this movement. The Left have not fully embraced it and the right "understand it". Even Ben Benanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve - the very guardian of capitalism as we understand it - recognizes the group's "frustration". Both Pelosi, more vigorously, and Boehner, more guardedly, have recognized their "concerns" So the protest group, which under normal circumstances, would be called the left wing lunatic fringe on the one hand, and the social conscience of the nation on the other, is garnering half - baked support all round. At present they are peripheral to mainstream politics and are not the center of the media's attention. Previously, the movement could have not have grown without media support but they don't need it anymore - they have the social media.
THE MOVEMENT'S POTENTIAL
The protestors are amorphous, unfocussed and leaderless but they have only being going a few months. While students are thought to be the majority of this debate there are other groups that are either participants or potential participants - "the workers", the unemployed - all 5 million of them, the homeless, the environmentalists, the foreclosed and those home owners that are under water, not to mention more than a smattering of 1 percenters.... Thus this is not similar to a predominantly student based protest with narrow objectives such as the anti draft Vietnam War protests. Nor can they be compared, as often as they are, to The Tea Party. The latter have a strict political agenda and definite political objectives. They wanted smaller government, minimal taxation and had a social agenda and their modus operandi was to take over the Republican Party.
Thus this group is out there gaining momentum. The movement is growing and growing in all sorts of states and locations. As many as 600 different communities are said to be involved. Recently, they scored a major success by closing down one of America's largest harbors, Oakland, for a day.
There is another more powerful example of the impact of this movement. Bank of America, the largest bank in the USA, introduced a $5 per month charge on debit cards. The latter are used instead of checks and are regarded as cash. Normally, this would have been accepted with a moan and as a fact of life. Other major banks followed. However, the outcry was spontaneous and devastating. Bank of America withdrew their charge but not before large numbers of their clients withdrew their business. In no time the social media was awash with exhortations to join local small banks and credit unions. A Bank Transfer Month was announced on the Internet and the Credit Unions added 650,000 members and $4.5 Billion in new deposits in a month. That was 50,000 more new accounts in one month than the whole of 2010. In every local newspaper in the US the Credit Unions are advertising, as are the local banks. The impact on the major institutions should this continue could be paradigm changing especially if insurance companies, for example, are similarly hit.
THE ANATOMY OF A PROTEST MOVEMENT
At the end of the day no one can predict where this is all going other than it is snowballing. This type of movement is difficult to stop, especially with the social media it won't fizzle out. The movement consists of many heads and is undisciplined. It is hard to keep it non violent like the Civil Rights Movement or the Indian Independence movement. There is no King or Gandhi or central focus. The "trouble makers" among them either provoke violence or the undisciplined amongst the police or politicians resort to violence. Then there are protests about the violence of the law enforcers, which inevitably provokes more violence, arrests, injuries, court appearances and more momentum. The violence increases the public interest but never the cause unless it is blatantly suppressive as we have seen in the Arab Spring.
A natural mobilization of this energy would be for Obama to say, "What you are saying I am trying to enact". He cannot do it because the movement is directionless and leaderless and what happens if an unacceptable agenda gels or the movement gets destructive and he is identified with chaos? Likewise the movement is not going to identify with Obama because he promised to change "politics as usual" and look where we are 4 years later.
At the moment the spokesperson has to be Michael Moore who has already expressed his disappointment with Obama. However Moore may be a celebrity but he is no politician. He is, unashamedly, a bull in a China Shop. So some one has to step up to the plate and channel this frustration and anger at the current system. History has a knack of producing someone who might lead this growing mass of malcontents into a cohesive political force and policy focus.
If and when this happens one can begin to measure their impact. For example, what if a charismatic leader said it was time to change the constitution so that financial political contributions are not defined as free speech? Or that the articulated focus be that all elections no matter where or what could not have any contributions at all and should be centrally financed? With the social media and some of the 1 percenters money what would have been a pipe dream 10 years ago could become a reality.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FIGHT - WHAT IT REALLY MEANS
Out of nowhere and in the space of a few weeks a new Presidential Republican front runner has emerged - Herman Cain. Articulate, intelligent,witty, likeable, religious, highly successful in business and backed by the Koch brothers, (the Republican number one, one percenter), he has become the Tea Party candidate du jour. As Perry recedes, Bachmann evaporates and Paul fades into the sunset as he has done Presidential election after Presidential election, so Cain emerges. He is not well enough known to be rejected as a flat earther and in many ways he is refreshingly forthcoming. In some ways even to be taking this much notice of him is risky as tomorrow he maybe just a memory as Perry and Bachmann appear to be and Romney will take his rightful place as the Republican nominee. But let's take chance and Google Cain with the best of them.
CAIN THE REAL DEAL?
To quote him, he is a "real" African American, not the ersatz Obama variety. He has not been around long enough to be called a total sellout by the Sharptons and the Jacksons of this world but he is already under attack by saying "some people" use racism as an excuse for non advancement. He also maintains that the African Americans have been brainwashed into supporting the Democrats. He has made gaffe after gaffe - on abortion, on a farcical tax plan, on negotiating with terrorists, on electrifying the fence between Mexico and USA, snubbing donors and his unashamed lack of knowledge on Foreign Affairs. Yet he remains top of the pops. His sustained position as the Republican front runner must have surprised even him and he is regrouping in order to make a meaningful run at the nomination. By every parameter he should have imploded but remember they said the same about Obama this time 4 years ago. Herman has ignored the strategically important Iowa caucus but he is polling number 1 there. There is little doubt that will change and he will charm the fundamendalist base who are starved for a viable candidate. If he wins Iowa he can win South Carolina and then who knows.....
He could not be doing this entirely on is own as JAY H ELL has indicated in his last blog. Why are the Tea Party supporters favoring him over the dismissed Perry, Bachman and Paul and the ignored Santorum and Gingrich? For the obvious reasons that they consider the latter with no chance against Obama. Also he is African American and just might be the ideal candidate to run against another African American. He is not a Washington "insider" in a grossly anti - establishment environment. While
all the other Republican hopefuls look like yesterday's memories, he projects a fresh image and if he get's his line straight as the unashamed conservative candidate the Tea Party will live with him.
IS THIS ALL FOR REAL?
But can all this be for real! Is it really just a reflection of the parlous state that the Republican Party find themselves in to find a viable candidate? How can you really compare him to the articulate. knowledgble, highly organized and financed Obama candidacy? After all Obama beat out Hilary Clinton. His was not an election by default but rather a conscious choice over the favourite. Also are the Republican establishment going to stand by and let this happen? In the final analysis, in the crucible of an actual Presidential race, Herman can only get worse. What this really all means, on the one hand, is that the Tea Party have not yet got a viable candidate. Even if Herman falls of the horse before he reaches the finish line of the Republican race one of the other Tea Party no - hopers would become their champion by default.
WHAT IS FOR REAL
At the end of the day the fight for the Republican Presidential nomination is a referendum on what philosophy will take control of the Republican Party- the ultraconservative Tea Party or the Centre Right Establishment . The champions of each faction, regardless of who they are, will be backed to kingdom come n the Primaries.
Thus, the Republican establishment are slowly but surely recognizing that they have to live with the jaded Romney. The latter is the only candidate that hasn't bounced around in the polls. He has 25% support come rain or shine. Put another way 75% of the Republican party have steadfastly looked for other candidates. But, historically, the Establishment in the Republican party have nominated a Romney type. They have a tradition of sticking to the Party faithful - the Nixons, the Reagans, the Doles, the Bushes, (by the ton), and the McCains.
Whether both factions will rally round whoever is finally nominated will yet another test as to whether the Republican Party can bind together to become a force for 2016 when a Christie, a Mitchell and a Jed Bush might be ready for a run...
THIS BLOG CORRECTS THE ONE BELOW
Whether both factions will rally round whoever is finally nominated will yet another test as to whether the Republican Party can bind together to become a force for 2016 when a Christie, a Mitchell and a Jed Bush might be ready for a run...
THIS BLOG CORRECTS THE ONE BELOW
Monday, October 17, 2011
THE AMERICAN FUTURE - MAY THE BEST 1% WIN.
THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
On the surface there is total disconnect between the President and Congress on the one hand and the electorate on the other. In a political climate where the President is running at a less than 40% approval rate and no Republican contender has more than 25% support there seems to be no saviour in sight. Although Obama should be a dead duck, the three leading Republican challengers are the political chameleon, Romney, the moderate, and the Palin stand ins, - Herman Cain, the new conservative tea party frontrunner, and Governor Perry. The more the Governor opens his mouth the lower his ratings fall. Cain, who sounds like an evangelical preacher, has never held any political office at any level and whose claim to fame is as a CEO of a pizza chain called the Godfather. Romney runs into trouble from every direction - his now disavowed moderate stance as Massachusetts Governor and his faith as a Mormon make the likelyhood of getting the Republican Conservative vote, in any election, very slim.
The fact that these three represent the philosophical factions of the Republican party is really close to conceding the Presidency to Obama. The Republican establishment have placed their hopes that, at the end of the day, all factions will rally round their stated number one priority - the desire to get the "socialist" Obama out. One really cannot see the conservatives coming out for Romney nor the middle of the road Republicans and the swing vote Independants coming out for the Tea Party stand ins. Obama is thus on track to win the presidency by default. Obama has a simple response to his own sluggish base, "Don't expect the Almighty just look at the alternatives to me".
CONGRESS AND THE ELECTORATE
Added to the lackluster Presidential choices and disinterest is the fact that Congress has a 10% approval rating, The "do nothing" Congress is furthering no-one's agenda. The electorate are really not interested in the blame game. Obama has angered his base by seemingly pandering to the Republicans in an effort to show the cynical electorate that he wants bipartisanship and progress. He is not winning any converts for his efforts. The Republicans on the other hand are winning no friends either by steadfastly maintaining that the rich are the job creators in the teeth of polls that want to tax the rich. So everyone is getting nowhere fast. Cliffhanger situations threatening to close the government just irritate the electorate further as the politicians seem to be making obtuse points only relevant to them.
It is fair commentary to maintain that the American electorate is totally disillusioned with government in any shape or form. They feel impotent, ignored and angry. Their earlier knee-jerk response to throw out whichever Party that was in power in each two year election cycle does not help. Nobody seems to get the message.
THE ECONOMIC MILEU
And all this taking place in the worst economic times since the Great Depression - nearly 10% unemployment figures, housing foreclosures are forecast in 2011 to be more than the 3.8 million in 2010, at least 1 in 5 homes are "underwater", the term used to designate the situation when a home is worth less on the market than the amount owed on the mortgage, student loans are at record highs as Colleges charge more and more for an education that is not producing employment, the systematic weakening of "worker rights" by the courts and the States and in the current financial abyss the withering away of social safety nets - to mentions some of the woes.
Central to the financial mess is unemployment. The raw figures do not tell the whole story. They do not include the underemployed, those no longer bothering to try to obtain a job and those forced into early retirement. Also there are imbalances with far higher unemployment among the minorities, the poor and the recently graduated Colleges students.
WALL STREET AND THE CORPORATION "JOB CREATORS"
Juxtaoposed to the parlous state of the electorate are the American Corporations. Generally speaking, they are in fine shape. They have fine trimmed their operations for the economic situation. This has often included large lay offs. There are many that are multinational and who do not bring their profits back to the US and therefore these are not taxed. They are said to have nearly 3 trillion dollars in reserve that they are not investing in plant or jobs till times are better. What is good for GE is no longer necessarily good for America!
In addition there are those corporations involved in banking, investing and hedge funds that nearly brought down the economy, some of whom were bailed out by the government, who still persist in paying astronomical salaries to their executives and employees. It is the banks and financial institutions, in general, that are the principal targets of public anger. The "Occupy Wall Street" protesters proclaim "The Banks got bailed out and We got sold out".
So in the midst of this all are companies financial or otherwise that are still paying good dividends to their shareholders and exorbitant salaries to their executives.
THE FUTURE DIRECTION
In order to resolve this situation two opposing political philosophies have emerged to finance the American future. One believes in increasing taxation of the wealthy to finance the shortfall and stimulate the economy and the other believes that taxation of wealthy will merely curtail job creation and is counterproductive and wasteful and inefficient. Obviously there are rationalizations, variations and qualifications to that theme, but essentially that is what the fight is about.
ELECTORATE RESPONSE TO THE ECONOMIC CRISIS.
Amidst the general apathy, populist movements have arisen. Foremost is the Tea Party, on the right, who have had a major impact in changing the Republican Party. More recently from the left we have had the "Occupy Wall Street" movement. Initially, ignored by the media it has grown and grown and grown. It has become a national movement and are now is impossible to ignore. It is in the forefront of attacking "Corporate Greed". Their slogan, "We are the 99%" as opposed to the 1% who have have disproportionate wealth and control the economic destinies of all, has resonated. In fact this movement has now become international.
The future of this movement which is leaderless and amorphous remains to be seen. Ironically to gain traction they are going to have to capture the imagination of some of the 1%. It is no secret that in order to become a significant agent for change the Tea Party received decisive financial support from billionaires, like the Koch brothers, who up there with 1.0%.
THE 1% - your 1% or my 1%
With the removal of virtually all restrictions on political donations the power of the 1% and corporations has become immense. The way American politics works is that there is almost a direct correlation with the amount of money raised and political power. So all the policy directions are irrelevant without financial backing from the 1%. The fight is not totally imbalanced and, as things currently stand it just so happens that each side of the divide has it's own one percenters. In addition to the right wing magnates there are the Soross' and the Buffets' to counterbalance their influence.
But surely this is not what the Founding Fathers envisioned - for LIfe, Liberty and Happiness - to be defined by a few.
The irony is that if the 1% do get taxed an extra 5.5% over every $1,000,000 they earn each year they will still retain the power they have. This has been vested to them by the Supreme Court, (5 votes to 4), who have interpreted Free Speech in the Constitution to spend as much money as you like to influence the outcome of the political destiny of the country.
All one can say is - may there always be one percenters on both side of divide and may the best one percenters win!
On the surface there is total disconnect between the President and Congress on the one hand and the electorate on the other. In a political climate where the President is running at a less than 40% approval rate and no Republican contender has more than 25% support there seems to be no saviour in sight. Although Obama should be a dead duck, the three leading Republican challengers are the political chameleon, Romney, the moderate, and the Palin stand ins, - Herman Cain, the new conservative tea party frontrunner, and Governor Perry. The more the Governor opens his mouth the lower his ratings fall. Cain, who sounds like an evangelical preacher, has never held any political office at any level and whose claim to fame is as a CEO of a pizza chain called the Godfather. Romney runs into trouble from every direction - his now disavowed moderate stance as Massachusetts Governor and his faith as a Mormon make the likelyhood of getting the Republican Conservative vote, in any election, very slim.
The fact that these three represent the philosophical factions of the Republican party is really close to conceding the Presidency to Obama. The Republican establishment have placed their hopes that, at the end of the day, all factions will rally round their stated number one priority - the desire to get the "socialist" Obama out. One really cannot see the conservatives coming out for Romney nor the middle of the road Republicans and the swing vote Independants coming out for the Tea Party stand ins. Obama is thus on track to win the presidency by default. Obama has a simple response to his own sluggish base, "Don't expect the Almighty just look at the alternatives to me".
CONGRESS AND THE ELECTORATE
Added to the lackluster Presidential choices and disinterest is the fact that Congress has a 10% approval rating, The "do nothing" Congress is furthering no-one's agenda. The electorate are really not interested in the blame game. Obama has angered his base by seemingly pandering to the Republicans in an effort to show the cynical electorate that he wants bipartisanship and progress. He is not winning any converts for his efforts. The Republicans on the other hand are winning no friends either by steadfastly maintaining that the rich are the job creators in the teeth of polls that want to tax the rich. So everyone is getting nowhere fast. Cliffhanger situations threatening to close the government just irritate the electorate further as the politicians seem to be making obtuse points only relevant to them.
It is fair commentary to maintain that the American electorate is totally disillusioned with government in any shape or form. They feel impotent, ignored and angry. Their earlier knee-jerk response to throw out whichever Party that was in power in each two year election cycle does not help. Nobody seems to get the message.
THE ECONOMIC MILEU
And all this taking place in the worst economic times since the Great Depression - nearly 10% unemployment figures, housing foreclosures are forecast in 2011 to be more than the 3.8 million in 2010, at least 1 in 5 homes are "underwater", the term used to designate the situation when a home is worth less on the market than the amount owed on the mortgage, student loans are at record highs as Colleges charge more and more for an education that is not producing employment, the systematic weakening of "worker rights" by the courts and the States and in the current financial abyss the withering away of social safety nets - to mentions some of the woes.
Central to the financial mess is unemployment. The raw figures do not tell the whole story. They do not include the underemployed, those no longer bothering to try to obtain a job and those forced into early retirement. Also there are imbalances with far higher unemployment among the minorities, the poor and the recently graduated Colleges students.
WALL STREET AND THE CORPORATION "JOB CREATORS"
Juxtaoposed to the parlous state of the electorate are the American Corporations. Generally speaking, they are in fine shape. They have fine trimmed their operations for the economic situation. This has often included large lay offs. There are many that are multinational and who do not bring their profits back to the US and therefore these are not taxed. They are said to have nearly 3 trillion dollars in reserve that they are not investing in plant or jobs till times are better. What is good for GE is no longer necessarily good for America!
In addition there are those corporations involved in banking, investing and hedge funds that nearly brought down the economy, some of whom were bailed out by the government, who still persist in paying astronomical salaries to their executives and employees. It is the banks and financial institutions, in general, that are the principal targets of public anger. The "Occupy Wall Street" protesters proclaim "The Banks got bailed out and We got sold out".
So in the midst of this all are companies financial or otherwise that are still paying good dividends to their shareholders and exorbitant salaries to their executives.
THE FUTURE DIRECTION
In order to resolve this situation two opposing political philosophies have emerged to finance the American future. One believes in increasing taxation of the wealthy to finance the shortfall and stimulate the economy and the other believes that taxation of wealthy will merely curtail job creation and is counterproductive and wasteful and inefficient. Obviously there are rationalizations, variations and qualifications to that theme, but essentially that is what the fight is about.
ELECTORATE RESPONSE TO THE ECONOMIC CRISIS.
Amidst the general apathy, populist movements have arisen. Foremost is the Tea Party, on the right, who have had a major impact in changing the Republican Party. More recently from the left we have had the "Occupy Wall Street" movement. Initially, ignored by the media it has grown and grown and grown. It has become a national movement and are now is impossible to ignore. It is in the forefront of attacking "Corporate Greed". Their slogan, "We are the 99%" as opposed to the 1% who have have disproportionate wealth and control the economic destinies of all, has resonated. In fact this movement has now become international.
The future of this movement which is leaderless and amorphous remains to be seen. Ironically to gain traction they are going to have to capture the imagination of some of the 1%. It is no secret that in order to become a significant agent for change the Tea Party received decisive financial support from billionaires, like the Koch brothers, who up there with 1.0%.
THE 1% - your 1% or my 1%
With the removal of virtually all restrictions on political donations the power of the 1% and corporations has become immense. The way American politics works is that there is almost a direct correlation with the amount of money raised and political power. So all the policy directions are irrelevant without financial backing from the 1%. The fight is not totally imbalanced and, as things currently stand it just so happens that each side of the divide has it's own one percenters. In addition to the right wing magnates there are the Soross' and the Buffets' to counterbalance their influence.
But surely this is not what the Founding Fathers envisioned - for LIfe, Liberty and Happiness - to be defined by a few.
The irony is that if the 1% do get taxed an extra 5.5% over every $1,000,000 they earn each year they will still retain the power they have. This has been vested to them by the Supreme Court, (5 votes to 4), who have interpreted Free Speech in the Constitution to spend as much money as you like to influence the outcome of the political destiny of the country.
All one can say is - may there always be one percenters on both side of divide and may the best one percenters win!
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