HOW TRUMP WON - WHAT’S NEXT?

 

There is one general point to make before launching into How Trump Won and What's Next, namely, he did not win a grand mandate nor did the “Republicans” who eked out victories in Congress. In addition the Democrats made gains in several areas particularly in the down ballot State races. Vice President Harris, a relatively unknown woman, lost three Midwestern States by 230,000 votes, (0.012 percent of 19 million votes), that had she won she would have been President. The reality of the narrowness of Trump’s victory hangs over the future of American politics particularly since there is a MAGA civil war . (Blog: “Can Trump Pull This Off”.)  

Just one other fact Kamala Harris on the trail was faultless but she was hamstrung by two factors - Biden hanging on for dear life and her inherited campaign staff hid her like they closeted him.  

HOW DID TRUMP DO IT?

How did Trump with all his character flaws, penchant for not telling the truth, switching  policies mid sentence, being a grifter deluxe, a convicted felon, inspirer of an insurrection and an approval rate of 41percent, win?  

How was he able to be the binary choice of a tiny yet crucial number of suburban white women, (you just grab them by the pussy), some youth, (no way is he going to forgive student loans), enough black men, (just shoot them in the legs), Hispanic men, (they are sending us their drug dealers, murderers and rapists) and Union Workers, (to Elon, “when they say they’re going to strike you just fire them”)? 

 How did this epitome of a spoiled brat of a mega rich privileged family with failed grandiose schemes where his daddy bailed him out, who trashed the very demographics he needed, become the avatar of the underdog? 

Thus Instead of just focussing only on why a barely known black Indian woman, a first generation immigrant, lost, although her demographic was implicitly a large part of MAGA'S negative narrative, the question is how Trump regained that tiny 2016 vote and got 90 million voters to stay at home.

There are a multiplicity of reasons why Trump won in 2016 and again in 2024 which Jay H. Ell will detail but he believes a central answer lies in what the Canadian Author Marshall McLuhan punted in the 1960’s and then in his book, “The Medium is the Message”. 

McLuhan argued that how a message was delivered had a significant impact on how it was perceived, more so than the content itself. He has been proved right throughout the ages as revolutions in the medium have facilitated cataclysmic events. Examples include the printing press - 30 years religious wars with a third of Europeans dying; the radio - Hitler, Churchill and Roosevelt - WW11;  television - Kennedy and Nixon, Watergate and the era up to 1990. The new medium of the World Wide Web, (www), certainly has more than done its bit.

THE WORLD PRIOR TO COVID 

The fact that Donald Trump was elected President in 2016 was indicative that profound change had already filtered into the political landscape of the world. The United Kingdom had absurdly voted for Brexit and Viktor Orban was ensconcing himself in Hungary just for starters

Populism was the new ism. A dictionary definition of the phenomenon includes the appeal to ordinary people who feel they are being ignored by the elites and their institutions. Before the www they were hardly heard of, disorganized let alone a major force globally creating an agenda - mainly just their opinions and feelings and not fact. No one defined the new ism more than Donald Trump.

Trump trashed objectivity although he had no idea that there were philosophers that had articulated his schtick of anti science, anti experience and anti values or morality. Michel Foucault argued that “The elites controlled the masses by claiming that they had the monopoly on facts and science on the basis of objective facts”. Kelly Anne Conway argued “We have our own truth”. Trump claimed he knew more than the generals.

Trump laid the blame for the outsourced industries, the failure of the rural populations to move forward, the non College degree youth stuck in a rut, the loneliness and the drug addicted outcasts on the liberal elitist experts and scientists, their institutions mostly their universities and their control of the established media. The “Dark State” of unelected  bureaucrats carried out the agenda. He was a victim. He even claimed that black men should connect with him as he like them was being being unfairly targeted. 

But there were other factors that caused insecurity, discontent and anxiety. The growth of women power as illustrated in the “Me Too” movement. Their emancipation in the education process resulting in more women college graduates then men. Misogyny played a large role, The growth industry of the marginalized, LGBT  groups, Black Lives Matter and no body worrying about the poor whites who “were last in line”. 

Then there was the fear of immigrants both legal and illegal. They were taking American jobs, consuming entitlement money, “poisoning the blood”, committing murder and thus changing what America was. “Make America Great Again” was code for “Keep America White”. But most important the discontents now had a www. medium to unite and crystallize their grievances and yearn for a savior who was made to order - Trump.

THE WORLD CIRCA 2024  - THE TRUMP RE ELECTION

The world in the first quarter of the 21 first century had recovered from a pandemic the likes of which had not been experienced for over a hundred years. The fact that it resulted in over 7 million deaths, was soon forgotten. Rather what was perceived was the anger at the restrictions placed on citizens in an attempt by the scientists to control the contagion. Forgotten was the bizarre manner in which Trump lied about the danger, suggested bleach as a cure, congratulated China then smeared them by tweeting continuously that it was “The China Virus" . Fitting into the narrative was good old RFK Jnr who argued that the vaccination was dangerous. 

The post Covid scapegoat for the devastation, inflation and loneliness was the most respected infectious disease expert Dr. Fauci who today is listed by the Trump nominated FBI Director Kash Patel, as one of the “Deep State” that should be prosecuted by the incoming Administration.The attack on institutions including the Centers For Disease Control, which was plastered billions of times, one way or another on the world wide web, was another factor that a slither of voters that preferred Biden in 2020 switched back to Trump

SO IT’S THE MEDIUM NOT THE MESSAGE - STUPID!

Of course there are counter narratives far more convincing than Trump’s charge. Biden addressed the manufacturing and jobs issue in a revolutionary fashion with the money going where it was needed most - the red states. The crime rate is down and statistically lower among immigrants. Currently there is the lowest unemployment rate on record with best economy in the world. Biden deported a record number of “illegals” and offered a bipartisan border deal which Trump rejected and told the world why - to leave the issue open so he can run on it. Biden dealt with the international crises unbelievably competently.  But he kept all to himself not even talking to the conventional media. 

In 2020 the campaigns were run from the bunkers. It was the height of Covid and Trump’s Covid laissez - affaire approach was still fresh in every one’s minds. In 2024 the environment changed. Biden now needed to be out front. He bombed when he finally appeared in a debate and belatedly pulled out of the race. 

Harris inherited Biden’s yesterday’s campaign staff. It all looked so marvelous, an incredible ground game, paid staff, more money, hundreds of volunteers, but Harris had hardly name or policy recognition. She was kept hidden lest she make a mistake.  When they exposed her she was convincing. Any rate they only did so in the conventional media which was moribund.

 Harris attracted large crowds delivered short sharp effective speeches and phrases such as “… a very unserious man … whose consequences could be brutally serious”. But how big were Harris’s audiences - tens of thousands at rallies, 15 million at the Convention and twenty million at that debate where Trump claimed that the legal Haitian immigrants, “were eating the dogs and the cats and the swans”.

 

Trump used all media, especially the revolutionary media from podcasts and the social media sites. What he said on the traditional didn’t impact his base. He had other the new www. medium just to win over the crucial few who had the binary choice between himself and the sheltered Harris. 

Social media needs short sharp phrases. Who wants to read screeds? First of all Trump had his own Twitter account which had nearly a 100 million followers. Then he had Elon who has 200 million. But it was the podcast bros that were the real movers and shakers. They were the most effective communicators to large audiences on the democratized medium. It is a so much easier to sit and watch for three hours then read Harris’s detailed policies. 

Joe Rogan the podcaster has 178 million followers. Harris refused to go and sit for three hours in tune with keeping her from sight. Maybe her antiquated campaign, which only inhabited Cable News was terrified that she would make mistakes. Trump made plenty. It didn’t matter. He cared enough to sit there for hours, there and every where else on the modern media. Harris was picture perfect for her followers and who knows had she been giving daily interviews maybe she would have reached a few hundred thousand more of the hundreds of millions which was all she needed in the MidWest. They said Trump wasn’t trying to increase his base. No he wasn’t he just wanted to reassure the demographics that voted for him in 2016 should rather vote for him than an unknown idiot.

So Trump, the best salesman in the world intuitively mastered the new media and Jay H. El firmly believes like Marshall McLuhan that it is the medium not the message that matters and that is why he won while Harris was stuck in the old paradigm.

WHAT’S NEXT ?

Trump has claimed the narrative before he has even been installed as President, flooding the zone. He has lost on every single issue that he has foist on his Party. From supporting the wrong Senate Leader, asking for non consented recess appointments, to having his request for not having to have a debt ceiling ultimately leading to 170 House Republicans and nearly every Republican Senator defying him. He poured political capitol into a disgraceful Attorney General candidate, Matt Gaetz, and is hoping to place hopelessly unqualified candidates in his cabinet. Just like the revealing of Gaetz’s ethics report the public hearings may well expose his shocking judgement. 

Then there is the legal immigration issue where Musk and Ramaswany are at war with the full blown MAGA. Ramaswany called Americans mediocrity and Musk maintained if America don’t import talent they will lose. What do those two know they both come from “shit holes”? Apparently a lot since Trump is backing them! Bannon and the real MAGA base are going ballistic.

Trump is going for broke on disgraceful Pete Hegseth for Defense. That is the crucial battle, if he wins that he controls the military.  The good news is that the Republicans have demanded an FBI report. Trump may still declare a National Emergency ostensibly about illegal immigration but he still needs Congress money for his grandiose plans and of course the military. He will probably produce a dark shocker at inauguration and it is going to be ugly. But remember, Mexico didn’t pay for the wall and Obamacare is still around. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Wish that the genuine lunatics would run this asylum. Hope Kamala Harris finds some fake electors.  Will Greenland be a blue state or a red state?

First task is to elect a MAGA Speaker which is going to be  a challenge.