TREE OF LIFE SYNAGOGUE MASSACRE, ANTISEMITISM AND CONSPIRACY

 OTHER THAN THE INTRODUCTORY PARAGRAPH OF THIS BLOG EVERYTHING ELSE WAS DELETED I AM SORRY

Last week witnessed the judicial denouement of the 2018 terror attack at the Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life Synagogue, where eleven worshippers were killed. Predictably the closure was lost in the dramas of the Trump arraignment and the missing submersible Titanic observation capsule, The accused gunman was a confessed white supremacist antisemite, Robert Bowers.

This mass shooting, as was the fact that it was an anti semitic hate crime, was not an isolated event in America. The number of mass shootings, defined as incidents where at least four people are injured and/or killed, is on a path for a record number in 2023, 311 already having been recorded. Anti semitism hate crimes too are on the rise with a 35 percent increase between 2021 and 2022, from  2,721 to 3697. This year is on a path to keep up the tempo. 

Jews represent 2.4 percent of the American population yet are the victims of 63 percent of “religious” hate crimes. There is little doubt that the introduction of the internet has exponentially increased the scourge. The Anti Defamation League found that 85 percent of Americans believe in at least one anti semitic trope. In their 2020 study they learned  that 60 percent of Gen Z and millennials were unaware that 6 million Jews were killed in the Holocaust. 

As an example of a conspiracy, anti semitism is the original prototype and has been perpetrated for over two millennia. The establishment of Israel as a nation state has heralded an increase in the attacks. 

The question is why the Jews?.

TRUMP INDICTED FOR ESPIONAGE - WHAT NOW AND LATER?

In one way or another Trump keeps overwhelming the public space. The latest being the first American President to be indicted in a Federal Criminal Case. He turned his arraignment into a publicity circus which the media obliged by covering minute by minute from motorcade to court to motorcade to airplane to his fundraiser at his New Jersey summer residence.

He has defied the established political reality where a whiff of scandal or misstep doomed a career. Rather his success in life has followed the showbiz playbook that all publicity is good publicity. 

The recent bizarre twist to this larger than fiction drama is the former President unbelievably indicted and arraigned on espionage charges for flagrant, defiant, narcissistic, shameless, sociopathic and almost public, (that is to the high paying members of his club and at least three suspicious foreigners), retention and dissemination of top secret and sensitive documents that could well have compromised the security of America and its allies. 

The indictment has exacerbated the polarization of the country which probably is as divided as it was in1861. The whole happening galvanized his supporters claiming that this was a weaponizing by the Biden Justice Department to victimize his Presidential opponent.

 Passions are being whipped up by Trump who is in the fight for his life.This time round rioters cannot cause a change in government.- not even a minor rebellion. The militia leaders are locked up and two thousand militants have been charged for various crimes. Including seditious conspiracy, following the January 6 insurrection.

Trump is campaigning and fundraising on the basis of the forty nine page thirty seven charges indictment, claiming inter alia that he is innocent, that he was entitled to do what he did, that the indictment was election interference - generally changing his story from one day to the next. He reassures the faithful that regardless of “what happens”  he will never drop out of the Presidential race.The irony is that the riveting story that the indictment unfolds, as was in the case of the report of the January 6 Investigation Committee, is told by allies, in this instance, his employees, his lawyers and his good self, not by the Biden cabal.

Trump trots out the same old playbook. He is the victim of the “dark state”, the Marxist leftists, Biden and the fellow travelers.  The cult and the cowed following in the “GOP” accept that it is only he and he “alone” that stands between them suffering a similar fate. They agree with the “what aboutism” cry, mixing his conspiratorial bluff with his wild paranoia, that Hillary, Pence and Biden were allowed to do exactly what he did.  

But what now ?

FOR NOW

For now the con continues. His poll ratings are up and the small donor money rolls in. The faithful shout and cheer. There is little doubt that he has suffered naught politically with his base. While 80 percent of the American public believes that nuclear and military secrets should not be stored in ball and shower rooms only 38 percent of “Republicans” do and regardless of whether they agree on the indictment or not 80 percent of the population believe that “the action” was “political”.

In addition the "GOP" choir in the House of Representatives is singing loud and clear. The "GOP" Speaker, “My Kevin”, who is in desperate need to regain support from the MAGA cultists in his caucus, all of whom he has given key Committee positions, exclaims that “they are not going to stand for it”.  Jim Jordan the “GOP” Chairman of the House Judicial Committee maintains that the former President can do what he likes with secret documents. There is little doubt that the House “GOP” will run as much cover as they can by deflecting with Investigations of Hunter Biden, and why the FBI investigated the Russian interference in favor of Trump in 2016. The hard core are suggesting impeaching Attorney General Merrick Garland.

The Senate "GOP" is generally more mooted. Several of them acknowledged the seriousness of the charges. Defendant Trump’s longest newest best friend Lindsey Graham is out on the talk shows supporting swearing undying allegiance. Mike Pence, his Vice President and a chanceless Presidential opponent, whom Trump sicked the mob on because Pence refused to effect a coup d’ etat, doesn’t believe that Trump should face criminal charges and claimed that he had hoped that he and the Justice Department should have sorted it out!. Just in case you can’t believe the forgiveness of someone who stood idly by as the rioters roared, “Hang Mike Pence”, he did add that Trump is no longer fit to be President.

The line up of “GOP” Presidential hopefuls other than Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, both of whom are registering 1% in the polls, are condemning the indictment without commenting on guilt or not. Ron DeSantis who is a distant second in the polls, 22% was the most vigorous in his condemnation of the Biden Justice Department with Nikki Haley at 5% the next best in faux rage. (Secretly Jay H. Ell can confide that they are all hoping that the Justice Department can bring him down and they can tell his supporters that they stuck up for him).

It starts to become ugly with the calls for insurrection. Trump has put on Truth Social, “See you in Miami”. Kari Lake defeated “GOP” candidate for Governor in Arizona who, like Trump claims that she never lost her election, has called for “violence”. Representative Andy Biggs claimed that this was “war” and demanded “an eye for an eye”, while his fellow Congressman Higgins issued what was interpreted as military instructions. 

Right wing social media sites have never been more active all this with the background that 4.4 percent of Americans support political violence. Last time Trump made the same call in New York it was a total damp squib. The Miami crowd was sparse as well. They expected up to 50,000 and there were about 500. Trump's prophesy was if ever he was indicated the "country would rise up".

The Trump camp have taken solace from the appointment of  Trump appointee Justice Cannon who was castigated twice by a conservative Federal Appeals Court for blatant decisions favoring Trump during the documents investigation. There has been a wringing of the hands and a beating of the chests by the anti Trump media that she could delay or negate the Special Counsel legal theory or whatever. These fears have merit and there is a belief that she should recuse herself.

THE BAD NEWS FOR TRUMP

All of the aforementioned does not win Trump one new convert. All it does is consolidate the MAGA base that represent 30 percent of the electorate. He has open rebellion from a very eloquent and bulldog spokesperson Governor Chris Christie who claimed that the indictment was “damning”. A more refined Governor Asa Hutchinson felt Trump should quit the race.  CNN held a Christie Town Hall where he trashed Trump to kingdom come. His Damascus moment came apparently when he concluded that Trump behaved like a spoilt brat on election night in 2020. It took him a bit longer to share his sparkling insight. For the moment good luck to him but what tells it all is that his approval rating when he retired as Governor of New Jersey was 18 percent - details to follow if necessary. 

Perhaps Trump’s largest current liability is that he has lost his FoxNews echo chamber. Their first response was that this indictment was really serious. They gave Trump one last gasp with a friendly interview with his big mate Sean Hannity. Trump In spite of all the softballs served up to him he maintained that he could do what he liked. Just as he did in the CNN TownHall he hysterically argued that the Presidential Records Act gave him the authority.  

 FoxNews go to commentator on the issue is William Barr, literally Trump’s former Attorney General. Barr who has been vocal to anyone who will listen that Trump is “toast”. The indictment is not political he has voiced. Furthermore if Trump was guilty on just half the charges it was a disgrace. The former Attorney General concluded that his former boss was “totally wrong”. While establishment Mitt Romney’s condemnation was expected, Barr digs deep into the conservative wing of the “GOP”. 

Trump is thus without a major news channel behind him and CNN who were trying to be evenhanded by giving him a home town audience to spout his drivel in the end did him no favors as he merely made statements that were legally damning. There is NewsNation but that channel is only frequented by the committed base and hasn’t the clout to command big advert money let alone anybody who doesn’t wear a red MAGA hat to bed. No TV distributors are paying big bucks for the right to broadcast their channel like FoxNews has. 

Trump has become denuded of his lead legal team three resigning and one who has become a key witness against him in this trial. He has as yet been able to replace his counsel and it is being reported that several of the leading firms in Florida are declining the “honor” of representing the 45th President.

As the weeks roll by and the indictments increase some of the defenders will start distancing themselves from Trump. More significantly the big donors are looking for another candidate.

It is only going to get much worse later on.

FOR LATER

All this wailing about Justice Canon and that the jury pool in South Florida will find someone who will acquit Trump is not warranted. Special Counsel shrewdly scheduled the curtain raiser of his investigation in home territory for Trump with the local referee in charge. It also has not to be forgotten that it was from the same jury pool that a Grand Jury unanimously voted to indict Trump. But the Special Counsel’s main event has to be his January 6 investigation into whether Trump committed seditious conspiracy or whatever. And that has to be imminent. 

Special Counsel Jack Smith has demonstrated remarkable skill in no time putting together a compelling narrative of espionage committed by Trump. He also runs an incredibly tight shop. None of the revelations leaked. The media was unaware even that there was a Grand Jury in Florida. So where can he be in relation to January 6?

With regard to the January 6 insurrection he has a mountain of evidence from the bipartisan Committees’s probe. There are a number of missing links to make Trump really “toast”. Smith needs to link the war room in Willard Hotel run by Bannon, Stone et al with the militia on the ground, Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and One Percenters and then with the WhiteHouse. There is one person that is central to all of that and that is Mark Meadows, 

Trump’s former Chief of Staff. Mark Meadows provided the January 6 Investigating Committee with a documentary road map for their investigation which they acknowledged was the basis for their devastating expose. He then refused a subpoena to testify and the Justice Department inexplicably did not prosecute him. Now nobody has heard from Mark for the past year much to the chagrin of Trump and his former lawyers who think he may be cooperating with the enemy. Meadows can link the WhiteHouse to the war room as Cassidy Hutchinson testified. She persuaded Meadows not to go to the Willard Hotel so he joined the conspirators by phone.

 It is either that Meadows is cooperating or he is being charged as a co conspirator. If it was the latter his legal team would be coordinating with his co conspirator Trump.  There is one person that Meadows has spoken to and that is the Special Counsel.

There is so much more that is unknown. What, if any, cooperation is Smith obtaining from the convicted leaders of the militia in the insurrection? Fourteen have been sentenced to long terms for seditious conspiracy and most argued either in mitigation or as a defense that Trump sent them there. Surely there has to be some in the militia who want to mitigate their massive sentences. 

Jay H. Ell would guess that it will not be too long before Jack Smith releases indictment two which really is the main event. The venue will be Washington DC where the Federal Judges there, regardless of who appointed them, have a deep knowledge of constitutional issues. So watch this space. And of course there is the Georgia announcement due at the end of July beginning of August. If the stars are aligned the Special Counsel will get in first.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Literally at the end of the day Trump held a fundraiser for his major donors at his summer club home in Bedminster New Jersey. He needs other peoples’ money for his best possible defense and his 2024 Presidential run. The bad news is that as of now the big donors aren’t committing and the Koch crowd, massive givers, are already running anti Trump ads.

Which ever way this is sliced and diced it is a dark sad day for America that the leading Presidential candidate of one of the two major political parties is facing multiple legal jeopardies. The ponderous legal process may not stop him from being a Presidential candidate with the terrifying prospect that .......

DOES THE RULE OF LAW APPLY TO TRUMP?

The rule of law is considered one of the central pillars of a liberal democracy. The latter requires a free and independent judiciary and that every citizen is equal before the law. Donald Trump, (as has Ron DeSantis by the way), has made it abundantly clear that he does not believe in the concept. Trump is of the opinion that all is transactional and that the current pending litigation against him is a “witch hunt”. If he was in power then the Justice Department would be his Justice Department answerable to him and these circumstances would be unthinkable. He is on track to get back into the WhiteHouse where all his legal problems would go away.

The burning question in America at this point in time is whether Trump is above the law as his gross behavior in every sphere of life to this very day it appears to go unchecked. Currently he has been indicted for business fraud in the State of New York, about to be indicted under what could be racketeering charges, as used against the mob, in Georgia and is the target of two Federal Special Counsel probes, one for “stealing” classified documents and obstructing justice in the investigations and secondly for seditious conspiracy in the January 6 insurrection. None of this is weakening his leadership as the Republican nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. His main contender being an uninspiring sickening clone trying to outflank him from the right. 

But Jay H. Ell digresses so before we begin, what is “The Rule of Law”?

THE RULE OF LAW IS ASPIRATIONAL AND NOT A REALITY

The rule of law that maintains that justice applies equally and to all is an aspirational concept rather than a reality. There is virtually no one who hasn’t a story of how the system failed them. Notwithstanding the latter reality, America has a love affair with the rule of law with interminable TV series and movies. All of these celluloid dramas fantasize how justice always triumphs. Very rarely does the entertainment medium reveal the incredibly high cost of litigation or that contingency lawyers take on cases that they can win not to right injustices. The imperfect legal system can be manipulated in favor of the powerful, rich and politically well connected. Trump is a living example of this distortion of this essential pillar of a liberal democracy.

TRUMP AND THE RULE OF LAW

 Trump has weaponized the process of the law while utilizing his money and power to ensure that he is not subject to it. The Forty Fifth President is facing far reaching indictments of his disregard not only of the rule of law but another pillar of democracy - free and fair elections. Trump is exhibiting every behavior to subvert the consequences of breaking the law to the extent that even if convicted he could circumvent Federal Convictions since if elected President he could pardon himself. Currently his objective is prolonging the current litigation against him till he is President and then that would be presumably stopped. 

The very fact that every TV host is reminding their viewers that that prosecutors have to have a watertight case before proceeding is implicit acceptance that the blindfold in all those depictions of justice has been taken off.

IT ALL GOES WAY BACK

Donald J. Trump has a life long history of weaponizing the legal system to further his business and political career. His initial mentor was the infamous lawyer Roy Cohn who advised doubling down, delaying, attacking, deflecting, evading and lying when confronted with litigation of any sort. Cohn has been characterized as an “intimidator and a bluffer”. He taught Trump to counter sue and never concede defeat. All this has added up to Trump, according to USA Today, being involved in over 4000 litigations either as a defendant or as a plaintiff. Trump with his army of lawyers has forced employees, contractors and those he has been involved within business to bow out as litigation is a very expensive business. When in an impossible situation he “settles” as he did with his fake University to the tune of 25 million dollars. He then bragged what a bargain that was.

Where Trump has finally run up against his own legal interests is when they have clashed with his political objectives. Also the magnifying glass that the Presidency has brought him under has resulted in scrutiny that has made it more and more difficult to escape his proclivities to ride roughshod over the normal parameters of morality and the law. 

TRUMP THE RULE OF LAW AND HIS PRESIDENCY

One of the key clashes Trump had as President was that he demanded that the Attorney General and lawyers that represented the White House per se represent him and not their respective offices. The most public of his early clashes was with his Attorney General Jeff Sessions. The latter had to recuse himself from the investigation initiated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation into the Russian influence on Trump’s behalf in the 2016 Presidential election. Sessions had had contact with Russian operatives and had been advised by the Ethical Division to recuse himself from the Mueller probe. The latter produced thirty four convictions all of whom had connection to Trump including members of his administration. Trump subsequently pardoned several of his allies including Michael Flynn and Roger Stone both of whom played a role in his attempt to overthrow the Biden election.

So Sessions was axed as a result of the fact that he refused to close the Mueller probe. His successor Attorney General Bill Barr then rubbished the Mueller report that produced evidence that Trump had at the very least obstructed justice. Barr did what he had promised, having literally auditioned for the job, thereby letting Trump off the hook. 

Mueller had followed the Justice Department dictum not to indict a sitting President. The latter raises the question as to who the hell gave the Justice Department the right to decide that a sitting President was above the law? What happens if he kills his wife  live on TV? The rationale supposedly being that any Presidential illegality has to be decided by the political process of impeachment.  But that is by the way. Barr accepted his role as being the servant of the President. He instituted a Special Counsel to investigate why, who and how the FBI probed the Russian involvement in the 2016 Presidential election  Barr finally called it quits finding it a bar too high to lie that there had been fraud on the 2020 Presidential Election after having investigated the charge at Trump’s request. (Incidentally candidate DeSantis has made it quite clear that in the event  of his elevation to the Presidency the Attorney General will report directly to him and he will not hesitate to fire him or her should they not carry out his orders). 

One of the ironies of Trump’s total disregard of the rule of law is the manner he uses the institutions and the officers of the court, namely lawyers, to spearhead his political aims. In so doing he creates an aura of legality in addition to an illusion of authenticity. His attack on the integrity of the 2020 Presidential election involved sixty - one legal challenges. Only one, which was reversed on appeal, succeeded. However he used another set of lawyers to perpetuate the illusion that the election had been stolen from him with bizarre conspiratorial theories. The four lead counsel in this latter effort have faced disbarring or sanctions from their professional bodies. Also they are the targets of criminal investigations for their trouble. 

FLOODGATES OPEN AFTER TRUMP EXITS THE WHITE HOUSE

Trump continued his crusade against the rule of law after leaving the WhiteHouse and added yet another attack on the liberal democracy - the very core of it -  free and fair elections. To this day he claims that he won the 2020 Presidential election.   

The gloves however were off as out of office the Forty Fifth President was subject to the rule of law both civil and criminal. As he had done all his life with his army of lawyers he attempted to delay, appeal and generally jam up the ponderous process of the judicial system.

A long awaited civil case where Trump was found culpable of sexually battering a woman and defaming her inter alia calling her a “whack job” was finally concluded. Damages were awarded against him to the extent of five million dollars, a decision he immediately appealed. He then proceeded to defame her again on national TV resulting in him being sued again for double the amount.

He has been indicted by the New York State attorney for falsifying business records and faces 34 felony charges. He allegedly committed these crimes in the payment of hush money to a porn star with whom he had an affair with. The judge held a separate hearing to warn Trump about what evidence he was not to discuss prior to the trial. The hearing is scheduled for March next year which is in the middle of the Primary Season. Trump made it quite clear to observers that he was angered about this directive, This ia a State case where the President couldn’t pardon himself as is in the far more serious Georgian charges which are shaping up to be a doozie.

The Fulton County AG in Georgia has announced to the world to clear the decks for next September. She has even warned law agencies for possible violence. She is expected to announce blockbuster charges against a number of defendants including Trump for attempting to overturn the result of the Georgia Presidential election. She is rumored to be using a racketeering charge which was commonly used against the mob to charge the ex President. Trump has several motions to delay or deflect this threat including a motion to remove AG Fani Willis from the case.

However the most publicized threat to Trump is emerging from the Special Counsel's investigation into Trump’s purloining of  classified documents and the obstruction of justice that followed. Trump has conducted open warfare on the Special Counsel’s probe. In so doing he has incriminated himself to the extent that a first year law student could successfully prosecute him for obstruction of justice. This has thrown his legal representation which is the size of a medium sized law firm into chaos.

TRUMP AND HIS LAWYERS

Trump’s manipulation of the legal fraternity in addition to conducting his own defense in the court of public opinion has created pandemonium on a scale rarely witnessed before. He has compromised his defense counsel to the extent that nine of them have appeared before Justice Department investigations.. A lead counsel in the investigation of obstruction of justice in Trump’s retention of classified documents was forced by a judge to break attorney client privilege because the Special Counsel had enough evidence that the lawyer may have been lied to by his client and as a result had provided false information to the investigators. 

Trump’s different teams of lawyers are at loggerheads because Trump by not playing with an open deck of cards is playing one off against the other. Because of the paranoia he engenders there is the fear that there is a snitch among them. They are all up in arms against Trump’s coordinating, “in house” lawyer, Boris Ephstyn, who has never practiced law, but calls all the shots. A key member of the team defending Trump in the documents’ probe resigned as a result of Ephstyn’s control. 

Just to keep some sense of the Trump world about all of this. Trump has a history of not paying his lawyers. So some publicly demanded payments before starting. In addition all his legal bills prior to him declaring his candidacy for the 2024 Presidency were paid for by the National Republic Party. There is also widespread speculation that the tab since then has been picked up by online small donations. 

The system is always being gamed. In the first criminal indictment where trial date is set for March 2024 he has filed a motion for the judge to recuse himself. In the civil case which the jury found that he had caused 5 million dollars in damages he merely repeated the defamation on national TV and damages were filed for ten million dollars. Appeals were duly lodged.

MEANWHILE BACK ON THE PRESIDENTIAL TRAIL

Trump thrives on this chaos. He campaigns against the “witch hunt” and is favorite to win the Republican Presidential nomination. The best one of them can hope for is that his legal woes will force him out of the race. With each revelation he raises money for “his defense” and his woes to date have not resulted in any slow down of electioneering pace. 

The burning question is what will happen if he is sentenced to jail time? He can’t physically go to prison as he has a large security detail. He can still run for office unless he is found guilty of an insurrection. What can stop him from being President if convicted wherever his physical location may be?

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Donald J. Trump is a law unto himself!

If Trump wins the nomination the other “Republican” candidates should not have to sign a pledge to support him rather they should pledge to back Biden. 

PUTIN'S COLONIAL DREAM DASHED BY ZELENSKY

One of the ironies of international political disputes is that they, more often than not, need armies to help decide who is right and who is wrong - so let it be with the first major conflict since World War II between Russia and Ukraine. Not that there have not been other wars but none where the “casi belli” has been so clearcut - whether or not Russia can colonize Ukraine and exert  control via a Moscow based autocracy. Putin has lamented that the breakup of the USSR as being the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the twentieth century and of all the "colonies" he grieved the loss of most, was Ukraine. 

 It would appear that of this moment Zelensky’s Ukraine has the upper hand. This is due to a variety of factors including guns and ammo provided by the EU and NATO and the morale of its citizenry who are literally prepared to die for what Ukraine now purportedly stands for.  

WHAT THE WAR IS ALL ABOUT

No one would argue that Russia is a Marxist state. In fact it is anything but. The “means of production” are not in the hands of the central Government. Rather the goodies have been dished out to oligarchs who share the spoils with Putin. Then the Putin based rule is hardly a "dictatorship by the proletariat”. So the struggle isn't about capitalism versus communism.

 Instead it is a conflict between, on the one side, a neo colonialist authoritarian quasi dictatorship where the opposition is locked up and there is no means for accountability of the regime. Ukraine, on the other hand is aspiring to be a Western style democracy while attempting to rid itself of the corruption that has so bedeviled it in the past. So the outcome will be whether or not Ukraine will be an independent country and be able to fulfill it’s desire to ally itself with like believing nations in the European Union, (EU), and in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, (NATO) or be a vassal colony of Russia 

RUSSIA AND CHINA WANT TO SHOW THAT THE EU/NATO POLITICAL SYSTEMS ARE INFERIOR TO THEIR MODUS OPERANDI

The struggle assumes another dimension in that Russia decidedly wants its own electorate to believe that Western style democracy is inferior to their model.The fear that the "people" will rise up and demand democracy can never be out of the minds of autocrats. Broadly speaking China shares this view. Hence Putin and Xi Jinping signed an ante bellum pact in February 2022. In the midst of the Covid crisis Putin travelled to the sanitized Winter Olympic Games being held in Beijing were the two solidified their alliance. 

Xi Jinping had to believe then that Putin would overrun Ukraine in a week. The land grab could serve as a dry run for a move on Taiwan.Their joint statement confirmed that Taiwan was part of China, (not really a colony), and it strongly supported Putin in his demand that NATO mustn’t expand. The Chinese Premier was wise enough not to have included any mention of Ukraine in the communique because, just maybe, his intelligence didn’t quite jive with Putin’s spiel. China now is in the process of trying to play the honest broker in an attempt to distance itself from thie debacle that its principal ally has found itself to be in. 

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

The lack of morale of the Russian fighters ia an open secret. There is a war of words between the leader of their mercenary force who was wise enough to point a finger at Russian military leaders and not Putin for the shambles. The Wagner mercenaries need more ammunition. Wagner has been shown, in released intelligence reports, to have attempted to engage Zelensky in separate deals. The casualties on the Russian side have been estimated at two hundred thousand. 

It is believed that well over a quarter of a million men eligible for the draft fled Russia while a similar number of Ukrainians returned from other countries to fight. Putin thus far has maintained his popularity with the proletariat but they are really not relevant as to whether he hangs in or not. The question will be if the Russians get smashed by the Ukrainian counter offensive whether the military or whoever will axe him. 

The fact that the discussion at the moment is when and where the Ukrainians are going to mount their much telegraphed counter offensive tells it all. This is a far cry from Putin organizing victory parades in Kiev for March 2022 when he had to be fantasizing grabbing Moldova, Latvia, Estonia, Macedonia and Lithuania as encores. The metaphor for how the mighty Russian military have fallen was the solitary tank in their annual victory parade in Red Square. The parade had been rained upon by two amateurish looking drones penetrating the defenses of the mighty Kremlin a few nights before. 

NATO has been strengthened as a result of Putin's thrust. All the members including Germany have increased their defense budgets and Finland has been admitted to the club with Sweden in the wings. The NATO Secretary General even visited Kiev signaling to the world that he at least backs Ukraine being admitted. Zelensky is careering around Europe, the UK, the Arab and G7 summits and has addressed the European Union who are considering Ukraine’s membership. Interestingly the South East Asian countries are publicly supporting Ukraine. They are more than mindful of the parallels of China eyeing Taiwan, their shared territorial waters and all manner of islands in the area. Russia/China have succeeded in creating a world wide alliance against their objectives.

THE AMMO

Biden who has been masterly in solidifying NATO and slowly upping the ante, not responding immediately to Zelensky’s demands for offensive weaponry but gradually giving more snd more sophisticated arms. He was driving home the point that he was not looking for World War III. A crucial game changer has to be the sharp change in the German stance, the EU’s most powerful member. Putin had to have reckoned that with Angela Merkel gone there would be no way that the EU countries let alone Germany would mix in. A turning point in the latter’s full commitment came when Chancellor Schultz made it quite clear that he would provide the tanks needed to push back the Russians if the Americans sent theirs as well. Adding these to the  American Hibar long range artillery as well as sophisticated drones has gone a long way in blunting the Russian offensive.

So NATO and the EU are delivering. The US has coughed up 55 billion dollars in aid to date and has supplied everything short of fighter planes which Germany and the Netherlands are on course to do.So while Zelensky wails that it is not enough he quickly follows up with the thank yous. 

The chief problem at the moment is ammunition which both sides have gobbled up in enormous amounts. The Hibar weapons have been able to penetrate the Russian ammo supply facilities up to a hundred miles from the battle lines forcing the Russian supply lines to retreat further and further back into their territory. The only good news with regard to ammunition is Russia is in a worse off position having emptied its arsenal. However if Zelensky wants to finish off the job he is going to need more ammunition - even more than he needs the fighter jets. Otherwise this is going to grind on and on.

MEANWHILE ON THE BATTLEFIELD

Well the latest was that the Russians were supposed to have a winter offensive which got stuck in a tiny town called Bakhmut. There is no one left and it is rubble but they desperately need to take it to show that they have achieved something over winter, even though it is small pickings. Even there the most recent missives claim that the Russians are in retreat.

 However as winter is over the next item on the agenda is the Ukrainian counter offensive. The Russians are having one last destructive go at “winning" by hitting Ukraine with a barrage of missiles including their much vaunted hypersonic missives, of which they have a very limited supply. This initiative gets them nowhere in the grand scheme of things as they should have learned that their wanton criminal destruction of civilian targets and infrastructure has not persuaded the locals to force Zelensky back into the new USSR. According to reports the Russians have fired eighty four costly missiles since March 9, eighteen of them on May 16. The bad news for them is that the ever increasing sophistication of the defense systems culminating with the American Patriot systems are knocking the missiles out. Russia apparently in this last desperate push have nearly exhausted their supply.

So the world awaits the Ukrainian summer offensive. Some believe it has already begun. There has been the derailing of trains and the bombing of military targets, fuel depots and infrastructure inside Russian borders and occupied territories.  Meanwhile Zelensky is keeping the enemy guessing as to when the real offensive might occur as he sends missiles here and there. Perhaps he is waiting for more ammo, the fighter jets and more significantly more disarray, confusion and arguments amongst the Russian leadership.

WHAT NEXT

It is fair to say the cause of Russian/China style governance has not gained any ground. The vulnerable former USSR countries can breathe a sigh of relief as the best Putin can hope for is he comes out of this is in one piece let alone rebuild the USSR. China and African countries want to mediate but this contest is going to have to grind to a conclusion. It cannot end like the other misguided twentieth century conflicts conducted by super powers. - you can’t just walk away and shrug your shoulders. Ukraine is determined to regain territory including Crimea. If they get enough ammo and the fighter jets, which Germany and Holland are negotiating, it may just happen. The Russians are digging in for a defense but this is not Stalingrad and the troops are underfed, underclothed, bereft of defense capabilities and just not motivated. 

The most likely scenario is that Putin gets axed and somebody new in Russia can talk his way out of this mess. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

There has to be an end of a day here and for the moment Western style democracy has outgunned the Russian version of governance. This could never have happened without Zelensky’s Churchillian leadership and the guts and fortitude of the Ukrainians -  both the civilians and armed forces.

Wouldn’t it just be great if Navalny was the next Russian head of State. 

Lest anyone forget, Ukraine is waging war on behalf of liberal democracies. No country is being entirely altruistic in supplying both human and hardware assistance.

China are hastily rearranging their priorities as the EU has the potential to be a massive trading partner. 

Xi Jinping has to be placing his Taiwan grab on the back burner especially as the G7 meeting is solidifying its support against the China/Russia neo colonial axis. 

The Chinese and the Russian cause is certainly being helped by the "GOP" holding the American economy hostage. 

WOULD CNN HAVE FEATURED JEFFERSON DAVIS?

There has been a central theme to both the defense and the prosecution counsels in the trials of  fourteen insurrectionists in the January 6 uprising - namely that Donald Trump instigated and instructed the mob to storm the Capital. The leader of the Proud Boys claimed that they were standing trial for what Trump called upon them to do while he was, (free), running again for President. The former and thirteen others have been found guilty of seditious conspiracy in that they conspired, by force, to prevent, the lawful transfer of power to the democratically elected President Biden. 

Trump has stated that he would pardon most of the convicted conspirators. The former President himself is under extensive investigation for his role in the illegal attempts to overturn the results of what had been found by his own Justice Department as a legitimate election. 

CNN, out of the blue, since the next Presidential election is eighteen months away, invited the said Donald Trump to a Town Hall in front of his own supporters

NO SUCH TREATMENT FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS

Jefferson Davis leader of the Confederates would have not been given a platform, with his cheering supporters in attendance, by the abolitionist media of the day after he fired those shots in Charleston in an attempt to overturn the Lincoln Government, even though he had the full support of the South. The fact that Donald Trump appears to have his party’s backing is therefore no more relevant than Davis having his.This all begs the question as to whether CNN would have invited Jefferson Davis to a Town Hall in front of his cheering supporters broadcasting to the whole of the United States the reasons as to why he wanted to overthrow the government.

WHAT WAS CNN THINKING BY HOLDING A TRUMP MINI RALLY?

For those who had the stomach to listen to CNN’s “Town Hall” with Donald Trump, held in front an audience of his acolytes, the question of why this was happening had to be central in their minds. Should there have been any doubt as to who the attendees were, the moment Trump appeared they stood up affording him a rapturous welcome. They had been recruited from central casting from “Truth Social”. If that wasn’t warning enough that the watching public were about to be subjected to the usual diet of lies, half truths, conspiracy theories, abuse, authoritarian policies, misogynist jibes, the paternalistic ignoring of the moderator and the worst of everything else that were hallmarks of a Trump rally, then nothing was. 

The question had to be what was CNN thinking? And the answer had to be ratings. In the full knowledge that Trump in a national debate against Biden had stomped all over a seasoned anchor Chris Wallace to expect thirty one year old Caitlyn Coilins to control him was either rank ignorance or cheerfuily sending a lamb to the slaughter for the sake of ratings. What is more CNN had to know that Trump would have not agreed to this indaba had he believed he could not fully control the proceedings. He has already stated that he is not interested in the debates of the Republican primaries and would not participate. 

There were only two groups who really had a stake in Trump’s command performance and they were both from the legal fraternity. Those litigating Trump were happy that their recording machines were on while Trump’s own lawyers had to be moaning that with a client like that the prosecution doesn’t need any other witnesses. 

Listening to the talented embarrassed CNN panel attempting to discuss in all seriousness the relevance of this infomercial about someone, who is about to be indicted for his role in overturning an election that he lost, was educational to the point of banality.. Trump had continued that the election that he had lost was rigged and that he had won. One cannot rationally debate someone who is a pathological liar. Who in addition laughs off the legal system and who has labelled CNN "Fake News". 

Jay H. Ell cannot  go through the litany of disgusting positions that Trump reiterated in his ninety minute monologue. Suffice to report that he advocated that “My Kevin” should see to it that the United States should not pay its debts and in effect declare bankruptcy and that he made it clear that he backed Putin in the war between the free world and fascism. 

The only positive part of the show and its aftermath was the focus group of nine participants eight of whom had voted for Trump in the past two elections. None of them believed that Trump had said anything new and only one of them after the evening’s infomercial had definitely decided for Trump in 2024. 

WHAT PRICE FREE SPEECH?

While everyone agrees in Free Speech and exchange of viewpoints this does have to occur within a framework of reality and the supposed trappings of a democracy. You cannot discuss the outcome of sixty court cases with someone who argues, with no supporting evidence, that the system is rigged against him, (including those judges he had appointed); you cannot debate why someone who refused to assist the beleaguered Congress claim that he offered ten thousand soldiers when there was uncontested testimony by his Minister of Defense that he didn’t; it is not possible to break bread with someone who in spite of a jury finding that his sexually abusive behavior was liable to the extent of a five million dollar penalty that this conduct is befitting for the star that he is and on and on. None of this was unexpected but can stir his base to do the most scary undemocratic actions. It also legitimizes this behavior to vulnerable minds coming from an ex President speaking on Prime Time TV.

The answer would appear that Trump or his likes should only be given a platform under controlled conditions such as a Presidential debate where each side’s microphones can be turned off after the allotted two minutes. One doesn’t need to hear from him till if and when the occasion arrives. If of course he is convicted of insurrection and therefore unable to stand for office there is no real reason to hear from him at all in the context of him being the star of a "Town Hall".

One fact is for sure. If he is indicted he wont have a word to say in the courts where he is expected to make several appearances in the near future. There speech is controlled by a set of rules that date back to time immemorial. Where calling the Judge a “whack job “ whether he  or she is or isn’t simply is not allowed although it would be greeted by guffaws at CNN Town Halls and hysteria at Trump rallies.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Thee is so much more to add that isn't being said elsewhere. 

Even Fox ignored the event discussing Hunter Biden’s corruption although they couldn’t really explain why Trump’s Department of Justice could find nothing in four years

God Save The King and God Save America 

CAN MCCARTHY CREATED ECONOMIC CHAOS ALTER BIDEN’S 24 TRAJECTORY?

 

Joseph Biden already the oldest US President on record and President Donald Trump, already the second oldest President to be elected, are set to be the contestants for the 2024 Presidential election. As matters stand Biden would win if the election was held today and even tomorrow. 

The “GOP’ have no coherent policy to run on. Trump, who totally dominates the “GOP” message, is running on the mirage that he won 2020 election. What policies the "GOP" have are at total odds with the electorate, eighty percent who want gun control and sixty percent who want abortion to be allowed up to twenty three weeks. Trump too is compromised up the ying yang and the last election cycles have shown that he has lost three crucial demographics - the suburban former Republican women, the independents and some of the blue collar workers in the MidWest. In addition the youth have become involved as never before because of gun reform and a woman’s right to choose. 

 “My Kevin” McCarthy, the Leader of the House of Representatives is Trump’s handmaid and the tactic is to change the narrative to favor Trump. This he can do only by throwing the country into economic chaos and then refer to the “Good old days” under Trump. The mechanism to crash the economy via the McCarthy controlled House is by the refusal to automatically raise the “Debt Ceiling”. So what is the Debt Ceiling and why is it important? 

THE DEBT CEILING 

Each year Congress passes a budget and seventy - eight times in the last sixty years the moneys allocated for the budgetary items have been insufficient to cover the cost. The Government had reached what is called the Debt Ceiling. The procedure under these circumstances is for Congress to raise the Debt Ceiling which they have done 49 times under Republican Presidents and 29 times under Democratic ones since 1960. In effect by so doing they are increasing the amount of money the Government can borrow to pay for items that Congress had already passed. The latter includes government employee salaries, medical and entitlement costs and bond holders - local and foreign. In short by not raising the debt ceiling a fiscal crisis will be created in America and the world plunging it into a recession if not a depression. The full faith and credit worthiness of the American Government will be lost in the process.

Only once in the past sixty years has the party in control of the House of Representatives not automatically raised the Debt Ceiling. Republican Speaker Boehner demanded budget changes before supporting paying the country’s debts. In effect he was holding the country to economic ransom for political gain. That was when Obama was President and Biden was Vice President. The belief was that Obama would cave as he was responsible for the country’s economy. However he didn’t and the impact on the financial markets was disastrous.  Boehner quickly recanted and this move impacted negatively on the Republican Party. So why on earth would they try again to risk wrecking America’s economy and standing in the world?

WHY MCCARTHY IS RISKING AMERICA'S ECONOMY

Boehner was a rational actor and McCarthy isn’t. Both were responding to pressure from the Freedom Caucus to put the economy at risk. Boehner subsequently resigned as he could not function as the Speaker with the right wing pressure. Paul Ryan his successor exited the job for the same reason. McCarthy ranks being Speaker above everything else. The other variable in relation to McCarthy is that he is “My Kevin” and the “My” is, as he proudly acclaims, none other than Donald J. Trump. 

McCarthy approached his task recklessly to get everyone in his thin majority on board this potential train wreck. He basically accepted every provision the wild right demanded and promised the moderates to introduce legislation that was in sync with the “American Room”.

So the McCarthy Debt Ceiling resolution was conditional on Biden emasculating his legislative triumphs with the electorate suffering. "My Kevin" has no maneuverability even if he wanted to negotiate in good faith.  Most of the MAGA Freedom Caucus are anarchists in terms of normal politics. McCarthy agreed in fact that any one member could bring a motion of no confidence  to the floor if they believed he wasn’t sticking to the script they had laid out when they finally agreed to him becoming Speaker. To reinforce the cost of their acquiescence they only called their opposition quits after fourteen votes. They really don’t care if they turn America upside down as anyway they want to remake it in their own image. So there is no way McCarthy who believes being Speaker is more important than anything that America stands for will back off. Also “My Kevin” owes it to Trump to create the economic chaos that might just allow him to have a shot at becoming President again. 

WHAT ABOUT BIDEN CAVING?

So if McCarthy is not going to back off like Boehner did what are the chances of Biden caving? Biden has been around the block and then some. He has to be the most astute politician around. He has quietly legislated a revolution, won and retained the Senate and avoided the midterm slaughter in the House of Representatives. His calculous is that the “GOP” cannot carry through with this as the responsibility of not paying the country’s debts will rest on their shoulders. With Obama he outstared Boehner last time round and the Republicans paid for their recalcitrance. He is being asked to nullify the significant progress that has been made. If he backs down he will also weaken his position in the Presidential run off against Trump. He can and has offered to negotiate the next budget with McCarthy but he cannot surrender his and the Democratic Party’s achievements and agenda.

 Biden has rarely been on the wrong side of a political calculation. He knows if he surrenders on this issue America is kaput anyway with his agenda negated and Trump elevated to a fighting chance in 2024. Everyone, perhaps unrealistically, is looking to him to weave some political magic but he has to know that this one is out of his hands. He has delivered the goods to the electorate so he has to hope that will somehow impact on the "GOP" moderates in the caucus.

The stakes have never been higher. Biden has to believe that the pressure within the “GOP” caucus will force McCarthy to back off since the impact on the constituencies of at least thirty “moderates” will be vast.   

WHAT OTHER FACTORS ARE AT WORK

One of the motivators of Boehner calling it quits was big business pressuring him as the markets began to crash. There doesn’t appear to be that much interest yet and so far the markets have ignored the crisis.

McConnell can’t be too happy with the whole idea. He knows that on balance the “GOP” will have to shoulder the blame in a Debt Ceiling debacle. He wants to win the Senate and knows that this can’t help. His approach at the moment is publicly shut up. .

Four extremists didn’t sign onto the motion one more and it loses. Anything could upset one of this lot as McCarthy has to wiggle around the fears of the moderates, particularly the eighteen that are in Biden won districts. The Democrats have already begun campaigning in some of these districts so the pressure is going to build. The moderates are in the worst possible position as this motion will go nowhere and they are left with this vote and nothing to show for it. Their constituents will not be impressed that McCarthy told them the motion was just to initiate negotiations!

Another of the “GOP” problems is that in at least thirty seven of the “GOP”  constituencies the voters benefit by the increased number of jobs that Biden’s new energy program and infrastructure and CHIPS legislation has produced.

The markets are going to get jittery as the period for America to  reach the Debt Ceiling draws nearer. Janet Yellen has just announced the possibility of a June date. Interest rates will rise even more and inflation will get worse. 

The back off for both sides may come via the “Problem Solvers” Caucus in the House. 

PROBLEM SOLVERS’ CAUCUS

The Problem Solvers caucus is a group of 63 Congress members 31 Republicans and 32 Democrats, who seek compromise in situations like this. By the Group’s very nature their work is not public and they keep a low profile. While their commitments are obviously to their respective parties they seek to avoid catastrophe and catastrophe is where this stand off is heading. The members also recognize that they have no power or standing. They acknowledge that in spite of their efforts that they may not be able to avoid crises such as the Debt Ceiling. 

They have put forward a four step plan to confront the issue. Firstly, suspend the debt ceiling till December 23, 2023 and till after the 2024 election if three further commitments are made.They are to establish an independent commission to recommend a package that could stabilize debt and deficit; adapt budgetary controls for the 2024 budget and change the budget process in a manner which will allow for more consultation and debate through committee work. All in all a reasonable approach but one that the Freedom Caucus would never agree to.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It looks like this is heading for an economic crisis. 

This is not Biden’s first rodeo. There is absolutely no way that he will cave. He will be waiting for a break from the other side, which is as brittle as a twig. If that occurs it will come via pressure on the “GOP” caucus via big business and or the constituencies of the moderates. May be The Problem Solvers will exert pressure?.... 

Biden knows how tenuous McCarthy’s hold on the Speakership is. The latter is already getting antsy moaning in Israel, of all places, that the President has not contacted him yet…..

There is a possibility that the crisis that is already shaping up will be blamed on Biden and that the GOP either have another candidate and or that Trump has not been convicted of anything serious. In that event Biden’s trajectory to another term will be blunted. Whichever way this is viewed trust in America will have taken another blow.