TRUMP’S COALITION, HIS SUCCESSOR AND THE DEATH OF THE GOP

Donald Trump, in case anyone has forgotten, in 2016, soundly trounced the might of the Republican Party Establishment, from the Bush dynasty, to Ted Cruz with Marco Rubio and John Kasich in the middle. After that he cobbled together his own coalition who have stuck with him with cult like devotion. From the get go he was abandoned by the old Republican Establishment and intellectuals outside of Congress. They are led today by the one legislator who was the leader of the Republican Party eight years prior, Mitt Romney, and have become far more organized in their opposition to Trump. They have not fully committed to Biden as most hanker over resuscitating the GOP of Nixon/Goldwater/Reagan and Bush 41.

This time round those who were the backbone of the GOP principles of small government, balanced budgets, trickle down economics, not too much social welfare, the rule of law, commitment to liberal democracy and America’s leadership of the “free world”, have formed Political Action Committees and have banded together to oppose the POTUS’S re election. However they are in denial that the Trump take over of the Republican Party is complete. Trump has replaced the Party principles by promising a past that never was and the fact that he alone can fix up everything that is wrong. He can Make America Great Again which is code for keeping America white.

The question that remains is that without the Republican ideologues, a large number of the youth and the recent abandonment by suburban white women who made up the 2016 Trump coalition can Trump still tip the 2020 Electoral College scales. 

The cult coalition is made up of the group that he created from his populism, the evangelicals, the Republicans who are Republicans simply because they are not Democrats, the bunch who are still fighting the Civil War, those who are against “socialism”, the right wing groups including the racists, and those who hold their noses and give one or other rationale for voting Trump. The key component to the forty percent that consistently, to date, have been true to the Trump cult, is the disgruntled populace, mainly workers who have lost their well paying jobs as a result of revolutionary circumstances that spawned similar movements throughout the world.

WHY ARE THE WORKERS OF THE WORLD SO RESTLESS AND HAVE SOUGHT REFUGE IN POPULIST LEADERS LIKE TRUMP?

This decade is a nexus point for a host of revolutions in globalization, technology, the internet, cloud and 5G communication, sociology, the economy and climate change for starters. All have had the same impact - disillusionment with government and the elites by the blue collar “workers” who allege they have ignored them. Ironically, it has been the white worker, in America, including those in rural districts, who feel most abandoned. Economics cannot be the only factor or even the central factor as the “workers” have gravitated to right wing authoritarianism rather than left wing socialism. The “immigrant” or the “other” have been vilified as the cause of the problem, Trump has made the immigrant and immigration the central reason for the workers’ plight. In fact his first move into the political arena was to claim Obama wasn’t an American because he was born in Kenya. That was obviously untrue but it made the point that as a black man he shouldn’t be President of White America. He signaled his entry into the 2016 election by a racist attack on Mexicans. He has never let up on racism and hatred of the other being crucial to “Make America Great Again”. 

The blue collar and rural citizens claim to have been “left out” and minority groups have cut in front of them in the line leading to the American dream. Together with globalization, the outsourcing of jobs and the closing of mines, they claim that there has been recognition and favoritism of the militant women, the blacks, the LGBT group, the disabled and even the illegal DACA recipients, while they have been neglected. They argue that Government has become more and more dismissive of their plight. The gap between the College educated urban and suburban elites and the blue collar worker especially in the rust belt and rural areas has grown wider and wider both economically and culturally. The latter feel looked down upon by the rulers and their “experts” who graduate from the expensive Colleges where political correctness is defined. Francis Fukuyama, the political scientist, lays this all out in his latest opus, “The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment”. 

This group forms the basis of the Trump coalition together with the Evangelicals.

THE HYPOCRITICAL EVANGELICALS.

When Bill Clinton was President the position of the Evangelicals was that a moral failing in a President should exclude him from holding office. The spokesperson of that viewpoint was Jerry Falwell Senior. He was a leading voice in the cry for impeachment of Clinton literally appearing on television every night to self righteously plead his argument. His son Jerry Falwell Junior was the cheerleader in chief solidifying the constituency he had inherited from his father behind Trump. Falwell regarded Trump with forgiveness as apparently he was privy to the fact that Trump had asked for forgiveness for his sins. Trump had an over ninety percent backing of the newly forgiving group in 2016 as opposed to the ten percent that backed Clinton who at least publicly admitted that he “was wrong”.

The two key agenda items Trump offered to deliver on were Judges who would carry out Falwell’s social and cultural priorities and backing Israel. They were both equally important. It is a little known fact that Trump’s obsession with unconditional backing of Bibi Netanyahu is not for the votes of the  twenty percent of Jews, who support him, who in total, represent less than two percent of Americas, but rather the cult like following it engenders in the Evangelicals. The latter believe that the return of the Messiah is dependent on the existence of the State of Israel.

THE REST OF TRUMP’S COALITION 

There is a mixture of lifelong Republicans that just vote Republican year in and year out. They are not much concerned with fiscal responsibility, low taxation for the rich, America’s commitment to the rule of law and the like. Many believe that the Democrats are socialists and regard welfare programs as just supporting the lazy.They together with the “Alt Right”, the peculiar crazies as exemplified by the Q’Anon movement that believe in every conspiracy their feverish minds conjure, right wing thugs, racists and bigots make up Team Trump. Rush Limbaugh is no longer the fringe that he and Alex Jones represented. Limbaugh was the guest of honor at a Trump address to the nation where publicly he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Then there are those traditional institutions such as the military that have solidly voted Republican and voted for Trump last time. Many of these are stationed oversea and their support has been predicated on the fact that the Republicans have been traditionally more involved in funding the military and their operations. The Democrats by contrast have been viewed as not supportive of the armed services.

Finally there are the senior white citizens the majority of whom have voted Republican. 

HOW SOLID IS THE TRUMP COA;LITION?

The Trump victorious election team has already been abandoned by the suburban white women, a sizable number of Republican youth and the “intellectuals” which fact contributed to the Republican legislative thrashing in 2018. But then Trump was not on the ballot. The key variable, if it remains intact, the disgruntled worker in the rust belt, Trump believes will still push him over the top. Polls seem to indicate that he has lost enough of those not to retain Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin but he is still going full tilt at holding these Mid Western States and believes he can add Minnesota to that list. 

If polls are anything to go by he is losing his grip on the almost unanimous evangelical backing where his over ninety percent backing is down into the seventies. Likewise the white seniors in Arizona and Florida are not as enthusiastic as they were in 2016 and both States are now “toss ups”. It is hard to imagine that the military after his treatment and disdain of their values and his embarrassing attempt to involve them politically can ensure him the support that he received in 2016. 

All in all it looks pretty bleak for Trump.

WHAT CAN TRUMP AND BIDEN DO BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER?

If this was a normal world the answer to the question to what Trump and Biden could do with about ninety days to the election would be, “Not much”. But as this is far from a stable period in American history coupled with the fact that Trump knows no boundaries, the intervening period to November is going to be more frenetic and chaotic than the first twelve hundred days of Donald’s Presidency, if that is conceivable. Trump will with the assistance of those Republican legislators who have bound themselves to the Trump imprimatur will smear Biden off the face of the earth. The select committees in the Republican controlled Senate are openly accepting help from Russia to implicate Biden in Ukrainian corruption. Barr hasn’t stopped in his bizarre endeavor to prove that the Russian involvement in the 2016 election and Trump’s complicity was really as a result of the corruption of Obama/Biden. Trump is all but arguing at the moment that Biden is demented. 

Then Trump with the aid of Republican State Governors and the assistance of Robert’s Supreme Court are hell bent on voter suppression. Trump has even hobbled the Post Office so they cannot efficiently process mail in ballots. 

Trump is trying everything and anything regardless of the fact that much of what he does backfires on him making matters worse. His latest effort is to declare, illegally, financial solutions to the unemployed in the pandemic. His disingenuous support of Florida to vote by mail while simultaneously suing the State of Nevada who have taken a decision to ballot by mail has been met with embarrassment by the 2020 legislative Republican contenders. He just showers the wall with dirt and hopes against hope that something will stick. 

Trump is preparing the way for legal challenges by screaming like he did in 2016 that the election is rigged. The antidote to this authoritarian grab to hang onto power can be negated if he is thrashed at the polls.

Biden for his part just needs to hang in there and look Presidential. All he has to do is not make mistakes and allow Trump to campaign against himself. Trump’s desire to suppress the vote has an equal and opposite reaction in that it has unified and mobilized the Democrats like never before. As the Wisconsin election for a Judge indicated the Democrats were prepared to wait in line for hours in the one polling both left open to throw out a Republican. 

TRUMP’S SUCCESSOR AND THE GOP

If Trump loses in 2020 it is exceedingly unlikely that Donald Jnr will be the number one choice as his successor. In fact the former Republican establishment want their Party back. While they are paying for ads tp avoid a Trump re election they are still wedded to the principles of the Republican Party of Reagan and Bush 41. To illustrate this Sue Cupp, a former Republican operative, who is a devastating critic of Trump and program after program states what a disaster he is, while not voting for him in 2020 is not committed to voting for Biden. Likewise Mitt Romney who voted for Trump’s impeachment will probably write in his wife’s name on the ballot as he did in 2016. Do these and others seriously believe that that is enough? 

The Trump Republican Party is represented by Spokesperson Ronna McDaniel and WhiteHouse Press Secretary Kelly McEnany.  The latter support Trump’s non challenging of Putin’s bounty on American soldiers, the disintegration of the intelligence establishment, the trashing of the generals, the incompetence of the pandemic response, the waste of building a wall on the Southern border, fiscal waste on an unprecedented scale, the locking of children in cages, the abrogation of the rule of law and America’s tricameral system and the abandonment of allies….. It is not for nothing that both Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell are facing serious challenges in the deep deep red South.

Not one of these Republican “elites” can give you the name of who Trump’s successor should be in 2021. However the Trump crowd can name names, the favorite being Tucker Carlson, the Fox TV anchor and part of the nightly triumvirate  that unconditionally back Trump.Tucker Carlson is a biggot in Trump’s league and like the POTUS has gained prominence through being a TV Star. 

The reality is the Grand Old Party last represented by Romney is dead. The old Republican Party whose representatives, all sixteen, whom Trump trounced should find a new home. They need to realize that there is a new world out there and while Trump has failed to deliver on his promises the reason he came into being is that the GOP were living in the past.  These talented operatives should take stock of the new world and realize that trickle down economics is not the answer to the tens of millions unemployed at the moment and that the new industrial revolution is going to need innovative answers. Biden is going to have to revive an FDR moment and needs all the help and support he can get.

In case the old Republicans still need persuading that their philosophy has been rejected let them be reminded by just three examples in modern history.

* Gorbachev knew that dictatorship by the proletariat had failed so he broke up the USSR and “tore down that wall”.

* Since 1978 China has moved eighty percent of its peoples out of poverty by adopting a predominantly market based economy rather than a centralized system. It now has the world’s second largest economy.

* Finally, McConnell cannot control the majority of Republicans in the Senate and therefore has left it to Trump to negotiate with the Democrats on the economic relief pandemic package. The Old Republican party as demonstrated by its dinosaurs in the Senate is dead. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

To those who keep wondering what would happen if Trump faced a crisis not of his own making -  look around. 

It is crucial that Biden has a resounding victory in 2020 otherwise Trump will use every possible legal strategy to delay the inevitable. The former Republicans must do more than attack Trump they must vote for Biden!

BIDEN’S VP CHOICE WITH A HUNDRED DAYS TO GO

Joe Biden the presumptive Democratic nominee is about to choose his running mate for the Presidential election that is to be held in a hundred days time. On the face of it he could elect Lady Macbeth or Elizabeth Taylor and it wouldn’t matter as every parameter points to a Trump lambasting and a Blue avalanche. However the seventy - eight year old Biden has made it quite clear that he is seventy - eight years old and that he is looking at two central characteristics for his vice president, (VP), pick: that she be ready on day one to be President and that she be a woman. While the electorate may give Biden a pass on his selection in 2020 if that Vice President is the Democratic candidate in 2024 she needs to be electable. So this is one mighty important decision. 

BIDEN, THE DEMOCRATS, HIS VP AND  HISTORY 

For the moment Biden has united the Democrats like never before - a refreshing change from 2016 where Sanders fought Hillary till the bitter end. Obama’s former VP  has included the booming “socialist” in all the policy making decisions, been in public fora with Stacy Adams, loved Amy Klobuchar, reassured on Kamala Harris, campaigned with Mayor Pete, acknowledged Elizabeth Warren’s wisdom and generally been the unifying factor he hopes to be for a divided nation.

At the risk of stating the obvious this election is the most crucial in the Republic’s history since 1860. In addition there is a parallel to the post depression period in the 1930’s when America was in the depths of despair. So as far as Jay H. Ell is concerned there’s a third crucial consideration to his  VP election - the arc of history. This is the first real opportunity that the Democrats have had, other than a short period in the 1960’s, since the New Deal of Franklin Roosevelt, to be transformative. This cannot be a two year legislative blip as it was with Obama nor a treading water operation as it was with Clinton. While both stopped the cascade of Goldwater conservatism, Nixon thuggery and Reaganomics, which resulted in the social and economic inequity in America today, neither were able to effect any major changes. Even Obamacare is hanging on by a thread.

There is one further factor in whoever may be his Vice Presidential pick, she will be in the public eye with a vengeance from the moment she is named. This is something that Biden is not. At the moment he is in his basement while Trump is running a highly successful campaign against himself. Never the less the POTUS is still hanging onto his cult base which always keeps him in with a chance. Soon the other sixty percent of the electorate have to put a cross next to Biden and his VP running mate’s name. No one is too exited about Biden to start with so doubts might begin to enter…. As matters are proceeding at the moment he is fine… but complacency is dangerous. 

Biden is in a powerful position at the moment as Trump wails that nobody loves him any more. Even the extermely conservative leader of the Federalist Society has called him a Fascist. The Democrats meanwhile are poised for a legislative trifecta other than the Presidency. First and foremost is the Senate where the masked McConnell and the Republican President regularly don’t see eye to eye. The Republican Senate leader’s latest leaked injunction to a dozen or so embattled Senators is to distance themselves from Trump if they believe it will enhance their chances at re election. Then Pelosi is on the path to increasing the House majority while for the first time for decades the Democrats may well win the majority of State Legislatures. In all four electoral contests the Democrats are far outraising the GOP which is very telling indeed. 

TRUMP IS NOT GOING TO ROLL OVER

However there is still nearly a hundred days to go. The Trump team are going to reinvent Biden. The advantage he has of being “normal” is a disadvantage as well. The Trump/Barr machine have the microphone. They are going to smear him off the face of the earth. Giuliani will emerge from the gutter with the garbage he has been collecting for months. With the Federal New York Attorneys axed by Barr, Giuliani who was under criminal investigation, must be heaving one big sigh of relief. Trump will be announcing the arrival of a vaccine whether it is premature or not. There is the ongoing voter suppression, a national disgrace from which no one historically escapes blame, coupled with the illegitimitising of the election making it essential that this be a clearcut victory. 

The Trump campaign is in disarray having suspended their campaign ads to reassess the parlous situation with his new campaign manager. However in addition to the negative tactics the battle plan is the same - hang on to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida while aiming to increase the electoral college via Minnesota and New Hampshire. While that may look like fantasy at the moment with Texas, North Carolina et al on a line as well as all of the former appearing a lost cause, this is how he won the electoral college last time. So Biden better watch these areas because those white workers that switched to give Trump the electoral College victory need to agree with the someone who is after all the Obama Vice President - the same Obama they turned against the last time. Maybe they will give, on rethink, Trump a pass on the virus and buy his vaccine as the solution, even with, by then, close on two hundred thousand dead. A long shot but one Biden must keep the possibility in mind.

 SHOULD SHE BE FROM THE MID WEST?

So if this is going to be more than a hiccough in the Trump march to authoritarianism, the electorate need to be reassured that Biden’s pick is more than a gesture to right centuries of wrong to women. To quote Jim Clyburn the House Chief Whip there can’t be another Geraldine Ferraro or Sarah Palin. Now Jim Clyburn the seasoned African American campaigner from South Carolina is where it is all at. If it wasn’t for him there would be no Joe Biden - “We know Joe and Joe knows us”. Just when Bernie Sanders was getting up steam with three wins under his belt Clyburn made it quite clear that the Democrats weren’t going to have another George McGovern. Alluding to Alexandria Occassion Cortez he opined that it was all very well winning in a liberal area from another Democrat but the House was reclaimed by Democrats beating Republicans in Red districts. 

Up and till the murder of George Floyd and the resulting widespread national acceptance of the violence toward African Americans, the front runner for Biden’s Vice President slot was Amy Klobuchar. The latter was highly capable, a former Attorney General, from the Mid West and a seasoned campaigner and legislator who had never lost an election. She bowed out like the team player she had always been in the knowledge that as Attorney General of Minnesota where the Floyd travesty had occurred several deaths at the hands of police had gone unprosecuted. As Clyburn sadly noted, history sometimes turns out unfavorably for certain people. Amy stated that she was withdrawing her name in the belief that a woman of color needs to be elected. 

Jay H. Ell believes regardless of the Biden position now the original thinking of the securing the Mid West should still be an important parameter. There are still a hundred days to go.

THE PROCESS CONTINUES

Supposedly it was extremely important that the Vice President nominee and Biden be sympatico. Well that is just a luxury nobody can afford.The eleven or so candidates that are supposedly in the running represent incredible talent and promise of a magnitude that the Republicans cannot begin to replicate. However that isn’t enough. What is needed is someone who is tough, experienced, will help the ticket and crucially will inspire enough confidence to continue a transformative agenda in the years to come.

Well, before Jay H. Ell begins, he wants to eliminate one supposed front runner Susan Rice, former National Security Advisor to Obama. This highly capable and articulate politician however is toxic. She is already on the hit list being so closely associated with one or other smear campaign. Her name was unfairly coupled with the Hillary Clinton smear campaign on Bhengazi but politics is a tough game. Most significantly she has never run for public office.

 Another highly rated candidate is the Chairperson of the Black Caucus in the House, Karen Bass. She is no spring chicken at sixty - six but that isn’t her biggest problem. She is largely unknown and as discussed that is a luxury the Biden/VP bumper sticker can’t afford. Similarly with several other candidates, such as Tammy Baldwin Senator of Wisconsin, Michelle Grisham Latino Governor of New Mexico, they haven’t the public profile for this task.

Then there is the highly visible Elizabeth Warren who at seventy - one represents the progressive wing. She, in addition to her age, is very polarizing even being at odds with the acknowledged leader of the “Progressive Wing”, Bernie Sanders. Stacie Adams, the African American who was robbed, by voter suppression, of the Governorship of Georgia is somebody one cannot casually axe. Biden has made a point of appearing with her publicly. However she is only forty - six, unashamedly ambitious and many thought that she should have been running for the Senate in Georgia rather than unabashedly pursuing her VP ambitions. Senator Tammy Duckworth a military vet who lost her legs in combat is from the Mid West is yet another who is in the public eye who merits consideration. Her drawback is that she is hardly the most inspiring speaker, nor has the broad national experience necessary for the task. 

Val Demmings and Keisha Lance Bottoms are two terrific African American candidates who cannot frighten away suburban Republicans. The former is from Florida and the latter from Georgia - both well within Biden’s electoral sights. Demmings is a former chief of police, highly articulate and with the limited opportunity afforded to her in the House was a star among stars in the impeachment process of Trump. Ms. Bottoms has shown her mettle as Mayor of Atlanta in the Covid crisis getting afflicted herself. Although Biden won’t be doing himself a disservice by putting either of these on his campaign buttons they do suffer from limited national experience. 

This brings this down to Jay H. Ell’s final two - the Senator from California, a woman of color, Kamala Harris and the Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, who convincingly won the Governorship of this 2016 Trump State. Neither can have warm fuzzies with Biden. Both are recognized public figures. Harris is the sharpest tool in the legislative shed, she chewed up both Barr and Kavanaugh at their confirmation hearings. She is as tough as nails and has to be the front runner at the moment. As a former Public Prosecutor she has her problems with the more progressive wing of the party but they really haven’t a viable candidate at the moment. Whitmer has been sensational on the national scene in her management of the coronavirus and Trump. Her husband has caused some minor embarrassments if focussed on would appear ridiculous in comparison with the Trump disasters. She is from the Midwest where if it is remembered where this all started when Amy Klobuchar was the front runner. 

Jay H Ell believes it should be between the above four all of whom are known and none of whom could terrify that fifty percent who are backing Biden at the moment. However he will probably narrow it down to Harris or Whitmer. 

CLYBURN HAS THE LAST WORD

Jim Clyburn when bluntly confronted with the question as to whether Biden’s choice has to be a woman of color stated he had three African American daughters but that wasn’t the overriding factor. This wily campaigner has seen too much racism, too many lost opportunities, has been in the struggle too long and knows what is at stake to make a selection solely on those grounds. 

One thing is for sure he will mobilize the African American vote for whoever Biden chooses in the manner he mobilized it for Biden himself. This in the belief that Biden was the stabilizing candidate for these times to dump Trump and move the arc of history on. He has waited too long since the victories of the sixties to do anything that will impede progress. He is part of dying breed several of whom have passed recently - Cunningham, Reverend Vivian and of course the greatest, after King, John Lewis. All of them understood the politics of power which flows from the politics of the ballot box in pursuit of Thomas Jefferson’s vision that, “All men were created equal”. Jay H. Ell is quite sure Jefferson meant women as well!

AT THE END OF THE DAY

This is no ordinary time. This is no ordinary election. Neither is the choice of who should be a running mate to a Presidential candidate an ordinary one. Whoever is the pick she needs to get ready to be the center of the media attention and to take on Trump from day one of the announcement. Also she has to be able to stand up to the invective, abuse, misogyny and smearing from an individual who has defied every norm of decency. 

One outcome is for sure whoever Biden picks he won’t be telling the rest of America where to get off on inaugural day on Friday, January 20, 2021. 

TRUMP - “IT’S LAW AND ORDER - STUPID”.

Donald J. Trump is not one to bow down to the inevitable. He had already in 2016, interrupted the arc of progress but even with all signs pointing to him being deposited into the dustbin of history he veers from one strategy to another to avoid his fate as decreed by the Gods and more significantly the electorate. As the election day progresses, although he proclaims it is going to be rigged by the US Postal Service, who presumably are part of the Deep State and in Jeff Bezos’s pocket, he still is doing whatever he can to win. 

With the economy in tatters, its plunge having been precipitated by his disastrous management of the coronavirus, the wall being a bit of a dud, with America being the polecat and laughing stock of the world and with him losing control of the Republican Party legislators, he has changed his line of attack dramatically. He maintains that the real threat to the country is rampant anarchy in the Democratic City streets. The protestors were terrorists and he was the “Law and Order President”, in case you forgot.

IT’S LAW AND ORDER - STUPID

Lest there was any doubt as to where Trump was going he tweeted out again and again three words - LAW AND ORDER. What was ominous about his and his sidekicks interpretation of that imperative is that it smacks of totalitarianism and the term “Stormtroopers” has been liberally used. In addition The Daily Beast maintained that the time has come to use the F word in relation to his policies. That  F word is fascism.

The Law and Order issue really is the bottom of the barrel as a policy to run on in 2020. It worked for Nixon in 1968 but America literally was on fire with the Vietnam protests. It barely makes the lists of the priorities of what is uppermost in the electorate’s minds. Health care especially with the coronavirus raging is number one closely followed by the economy and jobs. (It is no use blaming the virus because for four months he pretended it was a “nothing burger”). 

No one is obsessing on violence and unrest at the moment. There is almost a consensus as to what was elegantly and scientifically proven by Steven Pinker, in his tome, “The Better Angels of our Nature”, namely that violence has dramatically decreased in America. The protests have all but died down except in Portland and Seattle. But  Trump had two strings to his bow the “Black Lives Matter” protestors that were burning America and the violence in the streets of the cities of the Democratic States. So he set out to prove that “he alone” can save America from being overrun by gangs and the anarchistic leftist agitators ,whom the Democrats unconditionally backed. 

What Trump also didn’t compute was that the overwhelming majority of Americans believe in peaceful protests and the citizens in the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida to name but a few don’t give two hoots that it is unsafe to go into the South side gang neighborhoods of Chicago. Trump is going all out to convince them that they are wrong  As there is really no Law and Order crisis in America he is about to create one, one way or another.  Maybe his “control efforts” will create a chaotic situation. The evidence is that since he has unlawfully intervened in Portland the violence has increased there exponentially. 

EXPERIMENT NUMBER ONE  IN LAW AND ORDER - LAFAYETTE SQUARE AND THE PHOTOGRAPH

 The Commander in Chief stood in front of a peaceful protest flanked by his Consiglieri Barr, the Chairman of the Military Chiefs of Staff. Mark Milley in battle fatigues, and the usual flunkies. This was way back on June 1 so Trump and Barr felt comfortable to promote the theory that the anarchistic protestors was stopping the POTUS from posing before a church with a bible for a photo op. Armed forces in riot gear unceremoniously cleared the peaceful George Floyd protestors. Implicit in this move was more than a ridiculous photograph of a heathen holding a bible in front of a church that did not welcome his supposed symbolism. There was the “Law and Order” President instituting Law and Order. 

All hell broke loose across America and the world with comparisons to his good friend Boris who had also cleared the front of the Kremlin from protestors. What put an end to this move by Trump and Barr was that it hadn’t even been thought through nor had they bothered to caucus support for it from the people that mattered. 

What really resonated was the response from the dramatis personae that were central to the maneuver who realized they had been duped. The Secretary of Defense made it quite clear that the military would not be involved in internal political disputes while the humiliation of Trump from General Milley was devastating. Just before Trump was to address the West Point graduates, having needlessly risked their health to attend a public graduation, the Chairman of the Military Chief of Staffs publicly apologized to the enlisted men for being dragged into a political photo op. He stated that his presence was a “mistake and created the perception that the military was involved in domestic politics”. He stated that he should have not been there.

The one constant of Trump and  Barr is that they cannot be shamed. They just move on and Portland was the next stop. 

EXPERIMENT NUMBER TWO IN LAW AND ORDER - PORTLAND OREGON

Portland Oregon has a population of round about six hundred thousand, about the same number of officially diagnosed coronavirus cases at the time of Trump’s big move in Portland. Once again he was about to exhibit that “he alone” could maintain “Law and Order” in the country which was at the brink of being run over by anarchists. His options no longer included the military so he had to rely on the law officers that he had under his and the Acting Secretary of Homeland Security control to provide the muscle to take on the protestors in the far North Western corner of America. 

Portland has a long history of protesting in a country that had been born in protest. The citizenry anger against the George Floyd murder had not abated after fifty days. This was the ideal place to restore “Law and Order” and prevent America from being overrun by terrorists. So the group of Federal law agents most loyal to the POTUS from the Immigration and Custom’s Units were sent in. If you can lock children in cages you can handle some left wing flakes. Ostensibly they were there to protect Federal Buildings but they tear gassed and assaulted protestors. They even tear gassed the Mayor of Portland. They wore unmarked uniforms, refused to answer questions as to their names and what law agency they represented. They whisked protestors away by force to unmarked SUV’s simply just releasing several of them later There were casualties broken bones and the like but law enforcement has to do what it has to do.

A setback to the public perception to the Trump narrative was the formation of a line of interlocking of white suburban moms who put themselves between Trump’s militia and the diverse group of protestors. One FaceBook call for volunteers brought a spontaneous outpouring of over five thousand willing to join in. Within two days they were joined by a line of Vets who were prepared to interpose themselves as well.

Once again the condemnations were instantaneous, widespread and unequivocal. Even the United Human Rights Commission condemned the United States Government for their assault on peaceful protests. All this at the same time that the pompous Secretary of State Pompeo was condemning the Chinese for their Hong Kong clampdown. 

The American legal consensus was what he had done in Portland was illegal. Trump had marched in with an anonymous force that was not invited by the city, county or state legal offices. To quote Judge Napolitano, the Fox News legal analyst, “Feds may not deploy police or military domestically unless the Governor requests it”. Then retweeting a Washington Post story Napolitano argued, “This is how totalitarianism begins”., He continued further that the Feds’ acts are unconstitutional because they are arresting people without probable cause. 

The question is whether or not Trump et al care. They are on a mission and they had in fact incensed the mob so they had indeed to effect some Law and Order. 

EXPERIMENT NUMBER THREE YOU NEED A LAW AND ORDER PRESIDENT TO CLEAR UP THE CRIME IN THE DEMOCRATIC CITIES.

Some cities have been battling to clear up local crime for decades. Trump following the Portland misadventure maintained he would now cooperate with the local authorities. He  even reassured Sean Hannity of Fox News that he would only intervene if invited. However that reasonableness seemed to be contradicted by his statement the very next day that he had sixty thousand law enforcement officers to ready deploy. Whatever all this mumbo jumbo meant he was still going to Chicago with two hundred officers.

Chicago on its South side has had a decades’ old problem with gang fighting resulting in high death rates. There has been police training, changing of Police Chiefs and an increase in the minority make up of the thirteen thousand police force as some of the efforts to combat this blot on the City. The new African American female Mayor has made resolving the situation a priority. Initially, tongue in cheek she said would not oppose “the help” if there was cooperation  and that their actions would be coordinated with the local police. Nothing has been forthcoming from Trump other than his contribution would be two hundred law enforcers, about a hundred who are already in Chicago and will be redeployed. It is banal to point out the insanity of this all

Whatever is going to happen in Chicago and all the other Democratic cities only time will tell. but Trump has not honed down the rhetoric. In order to reinforce his role as a Law and Order President he claimed on July 22 that he was going to send Federal Agents to Chicago and Albuquerque, New Mexico because violent anarchists  together with radical left Democrats are responsible for a shocking explosion of shootings, killings, murders and heinous crimes of violence - “This bloodshed must end. This bloodshed will end”. Insanity is a masterpiece of understatement, as even Trump, although he can repeat five words in a row, appears to have lost it.  

The only conclusion is that one way or another he seems determined to pursue this Law and Order theme together with conspiracy theories that foreign countries are printing ballot papers with a cross next to Biden’s name.

EXPERIMENT FOUR - ONLY A LAW AND ORDER PRESIDENT SUPPORTS THE POLICE.

Mike Pence is off to Pennsylvania with the objective of fraternizing with the police. This is part of the narrative that the Trump campaign is masterminding that if you vote for Biden you are for the eradication of the police. The Defund the Police campaign that is a popular slogan of the protestors is being thrust upon Biden’s shoulders. While the debate really centers around using some of the money for mental health and or domestic emergencies that the police are called too Biden has wisely rather than clarify the matter come out against it, period.

TRUMP BY THE NUMBERS HANGING IN THERE - ONLY JUST

However as long as he has anything to excite his base they hang in. And as long as they still tell the pollsters that they are going to vote for him he reckons, with voter suppression and the mail and the illegal immigrants ….. he can once gain snatch the rabbit out of the bag.

Although about forty percent still are going to vote for him there is a disconnect between those numbers when nearly seventy percent support Biden to manage the pandemic rather than him with a similar number believing the Black Lives Matter protest movement would be handled more constructively by the former Vice President. In every other parameter Trump’s figures are between thirty and thirty five percent with the exception of economic management where he is barely ahead of his challenger. 

There are plenty of factors to make those cult supporters to let go - Trump changing his policy on the virus and masks, the worsening economic and health crises, the beginnings of open disagreements with him and the Republican legislators, some of whom are fighting against one another. Then of course the very fact that he is spending his time on a crisis that doesn’t exist and even if it did does not impact the voters in the swing states. That rather than applying his mind fully to the health and economic crises may well lose him votes. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Trump is still convinced that dividing the country is his path to victory. His strategy at the moment is through Law and Order! This is a dangerous strategy because it can lead to ongoing violence as evidenced in Portland. 

Any hope he had of the military backing him has been dashed. He can hardly order the other miscellaneous law agents to secure the country for him after the rigged election. 

The one nagging worry is the section of his cult that he labelled the “second amendment people” who he claimed would have been the only response to a Hillary rigged election win. What has really surprised Jay H. Ell is their absence in the sixty day “Black Lives Matter Protest” and the dismantling of Confederate statues. Where are Trump’s “Good people” that were at Charlottesville. Perhaps they have more sense than their fearless leader and know what is inside the KoolAid. 

TRUMP - POST NOVEMBER THE FOURTH 2020?

All the results were not in but the conclusion was decisive, Trump had lost to Biden in a landslide, the Democrats had retaken the Senate and held the House with an increased majority. Everyone was speculating what the POTUS might do. So was Trump, mindful of the fact that he was still the President and Commander in Chief till Wednesday January 21, 2021. 

Uppermost in everyone’s mind was whether he would accept the results and what his response might be. He had refused to commit as to whether he would honor the outcome prior to the election, claiming, without any proof, that with all the mail in balloting the election would be rigged. He had claimed in 2016, even when he won the electoral college, without any evidence, that the result had been rigged. His lie being that he had won the majority of the vote because three million illegal immigrants had voted for Hillary. There was little doubt that he would not accept the validity of the process. He would rile up his cult. However as Commander in Chief he could go one further and declare an Emergency so as to call out the military claiming that a coup d’etat was taking place. 

Everyone knew what he was thinking at any given moment because his Twitter Feed was the portal to his fevered mind. The stream of consciousness had spattered out like machine gun fire since ten o clock of the night of November the Fourth. He certainly wasn’t going to take a deep breath and resignedly instruct all his departments to prepare working papers so as to create a smooth transition because they had done very little and every department had been denuded of personnel. Nor was he about to prepare a concession tweet.

It soon became obvious that there was no grand plan to put into place for this very likely outcome of the election. But then he never ever planned very far ahead. All he did was react to what happened and then respond through the lens of his distorted view of reality. 

In the background Fox News’s Hannity, Tucker and Laura were arguing with Chris Wallace and Judge Napolitano, their legal analyst, about the legitimacy of the election. The latter two hanging onto their conviction that Trump had no legal grounds  to challenge anything. Another TV set had a semicircle of wise CNN commentators, socially distanced apart, commenting on the results. However they were far more focussed on what Trump’s grand gesture might be.

 The conversation was always about Trump regardless of what happened. He was the news and, if he had any say in the matter, he would always be the news. Biden, who was after all the President elect, had issued a statement thanking his supporters while reassuring all that he would be the leader of all Americans. Whatever his original statement was it was chopped into a thirty second banal segment - less than the time that was alloted to Trump’s tweets about sleepy, corrupt Joe who had been assisted by the dark state, China and Iran in his campaign.  Biden, who with the Clintons and Obama should be behind bars was the steady diet he was feeding the faithful.

Trump even more unhinged than ever was veering between the paranoid victim and the accuser screamed at the tiny circle around him. There was Ivanka and Jared, Attorney General Barr, Jay Sekolowski his impeachment lawyer, Mark Meadows his Chief of Staff, his campaign manager Bill Stepien and good old Mike Pence. Melania had gone to bed long ago.

For the moment his attention was more focussed on his cell phones. In-between tweeting how much the election had been rigged he was fielding calls from Roger Stone and Rudi Giuliani who had loads of advice about declaring emergencies and bringing out the military. All this while he was trying to get hold of Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham both from deep Southern States whose Senate races were too close to call at the moment. He was ignoring attempts by Paul Manafort’s lawyer who wanted him to issue a pardon now. Manafort had been arguing for months now that he had more to hide than Roger Stone. Jerry Falwell Jnr who had solidified Evangelical support for him wanted him to know that he was in his prayers and to reassure him that the Lord would not desert him. For the tenth time in an hour he contacted the Chairperson of Republican Party, Ronna McDaniel, to learn whether the hundreds of lawyers that had been sent out to monitor the voting had reported any voter fraud,  Also the “second amendment people” were waiting for the word….

Trump carried on cussing about the Chinese conspiracy. They through the Corona virus and other mechanisms had plotted to unseat him. He blurted out that his Intelligence Agencies were quick to report on the supposed Russian aid to him but now they were colluding with the Chinese to elect Biden. He glared at Barr who had not indicted Biden and Obama before the election. Barr like everyone else even in that small circle knew that his favor with the President extended as far back as “what have you done for me lately”. He snapped at Barr surely you can get a Special Counsel to investigate “Sleepy Joe”.

Then there was that sanctimonious Fauci who he  had just not simply got rid off. Mark Meadows who had advised him against that course could sense that was what the POTUS was cogitating about now. Trump regarded alarmist Fauci with the same disdain that he had afforded to the microorganism Coronavirus that had sealed his fate. Fauci had accentuated his ignorance, arrogance, incompetence, narcissism and blatant lack of empathy to the millions who had been afflicted medically and economically and the hundreds of thousands who had succumbed. 

Trump turned to Stepien who had provided him with internal polling that had given him a chance. The latter was the Campaign Chairman’s fearful interpretation. If Trump had actually looked at the numbers he would have questioned Stepien as to why he still was putting him within striking distance of gaining an electoral college majority. He need have gone no further than to circle the yawning gap between him and Biden in Florida to realize that was all “Sleepy Joe” needed to put him over the top.

Whichever way Trump cut it he was going to lose. The question was what he was going to do about the elephant in the room at the WhiteHouse and the subject for discussion on the airwaves.  Trump rather than immediately face the reality that he was a loser found it easier to lapse into paranoia, conspiracy theories and to apportion blame. Trump bemoaned his fate that everyone had sold him down the river from the Generals to Sessions to the civil servants in the dark state. Everyone had turned against him even Republican Governors who had all to a lesser or greater extent not opened their states from Day One and just accepted that people were going to die. Then the GOP candidates deserted him only a few asking for his support. In all the races that mattered. They had either scapegoated or ignored him. He then mused as if he just had an epiphany - Brad Pascale he had lied to him about Tulsa. Made a fool out of him. Maybe he was the leaker all the while. He did the right thing about firing him and everyone else.

While he wallowed in self pity intermittently tweeting his plight, the country held its breath as to whether he would create a constitutional crisis. Would he rally the right wing “Second Amendment People” to go into the streets. Would he call out the military? If he did the latter would he do so as Commander in Chief bypassing the Secretary of Defense. For the moment he just kept up the tension replying to media queries that he was weighing all his options in the knowledge that Biden had rigged the election with mail in ballots.

AG Barr had stood silently by as all the other sycophants, particularly Pence, Jared and Ivanka, in the room agreed with the deranged  POTUS. Consiglieri Barr was more than mindful of the legal options and had already been at the receiving end of Trump’s bile for not criminally charging Biden and Obama. As his niece had titled her book “Too Much - And Never Enough”, there was never enough that one could do for the POTUS. He had delivered big time. If it wasn’t for him Trump would have been impeached with the Mueller Report.  What was ringing in his ears was his glib reply to a journalist who had asked him whether he was bothered how history may view him. “History” he had countered, was written, “by the winners”. He was definitely on the loosing team at the moment. He was jolted out of his introspection by Trump’s aggressive query as to why they couldn’t go to the Supreme Court to have the election declared null and void with all the mail fraud that had occurred. Barr the ultimate toadie responded that the reports from the lawyers were not in yet.

Stone was on the line again stating that he could rally thousands of the “second amendment people’ if Trump just gave the word. Stone wondered whether he had called out the troops yet. That would be the last call he would accept from his ally. He wasn’t gong to be pressured by Roger. He hadn’t thought all that through. He knew that the Secretary of Defense would never go along with calling out the troops. He should have fired him too.

Stone’s request was leaked - probably by Stone - and the pundits on all the stations were having a field day discussing the biggest crisis America had faced since the Civil War. Biden reiterated what he had maintained throughout the campaign that Trump would be escorted out of the WhiteHouse should he not want to leave. 

Stone, his calls being rebuffed, began communicating with the POTUS through the media. He broadcast that hundreds of thousands of Americans were willing to follow Trump and restore law and order in America by revoking what he Trump had called a rigged election. This created chaos in the media rooms. Defense Secretary Esper claimed he had no instructions to bring out the military nor did he envision that any were forthcoming - shades of Watergate.

The pressure was now building on Trump. He turned to the lawyers in the room. Jay Sekolow his personal counsel answered that what Stone was suggesting was treasonous. Trump could well face legal jeopardy if an antagonistic Attorney General emerged after the election if he supported protestors with guns in the street. Biden had said that he would not pardon him as it was. 

Trump was no hero. He had gone into the bunker when protestors were at the WhiteHouse fence. He would have to join the revolutionaries perhaps wrapped in the Confederate flag. Nor did he have the managerial skills to put together a revolution. He was a coward. Perhaps his Vietnam deferment was still valid. What he would do was just carry on screaming about the election fraud. 

He would hang in till inauguration day when he would issue a pardon to himself and clear off to Mar a Lago. The legitimacy of that move would be fought over for years. His problems would only then be with the New York State Attorney but he could drag that on forever. Meanwhile he would start a new hotel chain for the lower income voters that had formed part of his base. Build massive new churches for the Evangelicals and go and preach there every so now and then. He would start a TV Station.... 

He would blame the virus, the fraud, the deep state for stealing the election. Then he would get back at all those like Mary who turned against her family for money. He would carry on his real estate business with the Russians….

He looked at the photograph on his desk of his father smiling at him. How he missed him. He yearned for the return of the family consiglieri Roy Cohn. They were the people who made America Great.   Maybe he would even stand again in 2024…..

AT THE END OF THE DAY

This blog may seem chaotic but that was only because Jay H. Ell was trying to get into Trump’s mind.