MCCAIN’S WATERSHED VOTE: THE FAR REACHING CONSEQUENCES

It took a dying John McCain, the irrepressible maverick and currently the Senate’s Republican elder statesman, to elevate the tone of the sick bizarre political discourse that has impregnated Washington this past six months. A week of high drama saw the Arizona Senator, center stage, trying to steer Senate deliberations to the lofty position that it had assumed in the past. His timely intervention to restore sanity took place in the midst of the puppet master, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, pulling strings so as to pass a cynical recall of Obamacare and replace it with an alternative that literally no one wanted. (Several doubtful Republicans had been persuaded to vote for the Bill with the guarantee that it would never become law). Trump was devastated at the ultimate outcome of the health care debate as he had desperately wanted any Trumpcare Bill so he could finally claim a legislative victory. 

There is little doubt that the McCain vote will have a far reaching impact on the GOP and the relationship between Congress and Trump. It may well represent the tipping point that cut loose the Faustian bargain between the Republican President and his legislators.

MCCAIN TEAMS UP WITH COLLINS AND MURKOWSKI

Amidst the tweeting cacophony and the obscenity that now characterizes the Presidency, McCain called a halt to the swampy sleeze that now passes for the Republican administration. The former Vietnam war hero joined forces with two brave Republican women Senators who had been deliberately excluded from the “reform” process which disproportionately disadvantaged women. They up till now had borne the burden of preventing the Republicans and their excuse for a President from scoring a cheap political victory as opposed to seriously facing the problem of providing health care for the citizens that they represent. This they did in the face of taunts, bullying and illegal threats to punish their constituencies. 

Notwithstanding Senators Collins and Murkowski’s remarkable and unshakeable courage, the historic week long theater, that culminated with McCain entering the august Senate chamber in the early hours of Saturday morning and like a Roman Emperor giving the thumbs down gesture, will be forever associated with the non conformist legislator who put principle before expediency. 

MCCAIN PUTS DOWN HIS MARKER

John Mccain arrived back to the Senate, on a Tuesday to a heartfelt standing ovation. This was not surprising as he is both well loved and respected. He immediately harkened back to previous eras where, in spite of differences, there was a commitment to work collaboratively so that the Senate could discharge its Constitutional responsibility. He claimed that the present deliberations were more partisan than ever before. 

McCain mindful of his own mortality and the morass the Senate and the country now found itself in, waxed eloquently about the role and burden the USA faced: “ We are servants of a great nation - conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.” He then went on that America had gained unprecedented wealth and power as a result of a commitment to those principles. 

The ailing Senator’s impassioned pleas to return to the values that made America Great and the legislative process that put principle into practice was in the context of the Health Care Legislation that was before it. He had literally crawled out of his sick bed to embark on a five hour flight, in the belief that the situation was a landmark one. In so doing he assailed the “behind closed door” process utilized to date. He criticized the strategy of withholding details of the legislation and “springing it on skeptical members and trying to convince them it is better than nothing asking us to swallow our doubts”. “That won’t work”, he prophesied little knowing that it would remain to him to provide the cover for all the doubters who were not prepared to buck the system at this stage of the proceedings. In declaring in no uncertain terms, “I will not vote for the bill as it is today. It’s a shell of a bill right now. We all know that. I have changes urged by my State’s governor that will have to be included to earn my support”, He articulated what so many in his Party believed but who did not have the courage or gravitas to take on the Republican Establishment.

THE WEEK THAT FOLLOWED - MCCONNELL’S ATTEMPTS AT TRUMPCARE

The Machiavellian Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, was not about to change the tactics that he had so successfully employed for that past decade. He was never much interested in defining the role of the Senate as the underpinning of American greatness. His first policy priority had been to ensure Obama only had one term. When that failed it was to guard that Obama could get nothing done. The most notorious example of this destructive and unparliamentarian approach was his blocking of Obama’s Supreme Court nomination, not allowing it to be even debated for nearly a year. In order further to erase the Obama abomination from the history books he was wedded to repeal and replace Obamacare - a goal which he had supported again and again. It was in this context McConnell would attempt to enact legislation that promised to deprive nearly twenty million Americans health care.  Mitch was the best possible option Trump could have as Senate leader as he was more interested in the process than in the principle.

McConnell’s initial stratagem was to claim that the passage of a procedural motion was a resounding victory. In this he was backed by Trump. His motion just to open debate was won by the casting vote of Vice President Pence as the Senate was tied fifty fifty. The two Republican ladies were not even prepared to continue with what they correctly interpreted as a charade. McCain disagreed, voting to allow debate. By this time Trump had reversed his opinion of the war veteran whom he had repeatedly belittled and joined the admiration society. Not that anyone was fooled as to his motive. The POTUS had said on the stump that he had wished McCain a speedy recovery and he needed his vote. The President believed that this had now happened.

From then on there were a succession of Trumpcare Bills that the Senate voted on in the hope that one of them just might stick. These were defeated by varying majorities as McConnell gave all GOP factions an opportunity to vote for a version they might have preferred. This exercise also offered all opponents the freedom to place on record a no vote so as to be able to report back to their constituents that they had opposed something should they need some political cover.

Finally, McConnell presented the real deal, “skinny” repeal which was his ultimate make or break attempt. Prior to this full court pressure had been exerted on the Republican Senators including being put in a bus and forced to go to the WhiteHouse for lunch. There opponents of the legislation had been openly threatened. The content of the “skinny” repeal Bill, which was a feeble attempt at pacifying both wings of the GOP, was revealed late so as only to allow for a few hours of debate. The pressure was tremendous to vote for this Bill that would then go to the House. There was a promise that the House would not pass it so that it could not become legislation and then the Republican leadership of the House and the Senate could hammer out a compromise. To the discredit of the majority of the Bill’s opponents they bought the charade and succumbed to the smoke and mirrors strategy of the maestro. The majority except, of course  the indefatigable duo of Murkowski and Collins. This time however they were joined by the frail Senator from Arkansas.

THE SEQUELA OF MCCAIN’S ACTION

 Trump’s Response and his relationship with Congress

Trump, who is in perpetual chaos, derided the Republicans, as being “useless”. They had promised the electorate for seven years that they would repeal and replace Obamacare and now they had failed. As was his won’t he vacillated as to what course they should now follow. Maybe if he wouldn’t fund Obamacare and millions wouldn’t get insurance then they would blame Obama for the failure! He finally instructed the Senate to continue with the struggle of passing something. The Senate refused. McConnell wanted to get on with the budget and more importantly address the Debt Ceiling. It has been part of the  Republican holy grail that the US escalating debt has to be halted. Good old Donald had said so too but surprise surprise he had now changed his mind. His Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has been begging Congress for months to raise the ceiling but he has been getting the middle finger. The latest on the issue is that the WhiteHouse and the Senate meetings have broken up on this issue with only twelve working days left to resolve it. If not resolved Government agencies will have to shut.

Trump worsened the soured atmosphere by tweeting that relationship with Russia has never been worse as a result of Congress, who couldn’t even get Obamacare replaced and repealed,

All this adds to the growing disconnect between the Republican executive and legislative branches. Jay H. Ell believes it can only get worse. Republican Congressmen will be further encouraged to abandon the POTUS as his latest approval numbers are stuck below thirty - five percent showing a definite erosion of his base. 

McConnell’s Omnipotence Shattered and the impact on the GOP

The spell and hold McConnell has had over his caucus has been broken. Although, that judgement, under the circumstances, is unfair to say the least, as all he had was a tiny majority to work with. He gave it a full go and had no room to maneuver and if it wasn’t for McCain he would have pulled it off. However this defeat has given the green light for the disparate Republican factions to do their own thing. McConnell’s relationship with Trump isn’t all that marvelous and he has been openly defiant to the POTUS’S suggestions as to how to run the Senate. 

The Republicans in the House of Representatives have chimed in as well as they have been left in limbo. Many voted for what their unsupportive President subsequently dubbed as a “mean bill” with the promise that the Senate would have a more generous version that might ultimately become the law. However while Ryan managed a narrow victory on a Bill that was trounced in the Senate he would have big problems in ultimately passing a Bill that would have satisfied the Senate as well.

In short this chaos triggered by McCain is going to exacerbate the divisions in the Republican Party and add to its woes in the 2018 midterm elections. The Conservative constituencies are going to wail that their Congressmen didn’t deliver on their promise while all those States that have benefited from Obamacare will crucify their representatives for leaving them in limbo. Between the healthcare shambles and Trump the Republicans have an uphill battle.

The Democrats and bipartisanship

It was left to Democratic Minority leader Chuck Schumer to pay a touching tribute to Senator McCain. He took up his call for bipartisanship and generously accepted some Democratic responsibility for the mess the legislative process is in. Schumer also harkened to the “good old days” in the Senate where the body acted as it should as the adults in the process. There is little doubt that the ad hoc bipartisan groups in both the Senate and the House are going to have more and more influence as time goes by. Realistically with the Republican party in such a disarray that is the best shot at any legislation seeing the light of day. 

Exacerbating Trump’s Woes

All this has to have aggravated the beleaguered Trump’s woes. Contemporaneous with McCain’s historic vote, which seems like a century ago, he has fired a Communications Director, Press Secretary and a Chief of Staff and appointed a savior Chief of Staff that is so unlike him that it is inconceivable that he will last very long. The scandals related to Russiagate just pile up as leak after leak hit The Washington Post and New York Times. Congress has signaled with near unanimous votes that they disagree with him maintaining that the Russians intervened in the election on his behalf. The legislative body has made his rapprochement with Putin impossible by piling on extra sanctions rather than removing existing ones. Meanwhile the investigations into Russiagate plow on with a growing emphasis on finance. Mueller has even impaneled a Grand Jury to get testimony under oath. While The Donald’s usual modus operandi is attack he has put in place a conservative military man who practices defense and discipline to salvage his Presidency. John Kelly, the new Chief of Staff, if he can control the POTUS would improve matters. But as history has shown, nobody but nobody takes over from Donald Trump - at least not for very long, a fact that Mooch Scaramucci can testify too. 

It is fair to say that McCain by injecting values into the American political debate while simultaneously defining the outcome of the most important issue of the Trump Presidency has capped a rich and lengthy career. He also opened the floodgates for anarchy within the Republican Party and its relationship with the President. Many pundits viewed McCain’s actions as pay back for Trump’s derogatory remarks at his heroism but this was not the consensus view of those who know him. Jay H. Ell can only but join the tens of millions of well wishers and add his prayers for a McCain recovery. 

Incidentally it is only fitting that McCain was first to respond to Trump’s tweet blaming Congress for the worsening relations with Russia. McCain argued that the sanctions legislation was enacted to demonstrate that Putin must pay a real price for attacking “our” democracy, violating human rights, occupying Crimea and destabilizing Ukraine 

TRUMP v DEMOCRACY - HIS ULTIMATE “TURN ON”

Trump has lived on the edge all his life. He thrives on the adrenaline that his confrontations, chaos, incompetence, illegality, lying and harebrained schemes evoke. He enjoys and wallows in the struggle. He is wedded to the uncertainty and like a cat toying with a mouse he is certain that he will be a winner in the end. His biggest “turn on” has been taking  on American Democracy and declaring himself a de facto dictator of the United States. In so doing he hopes to turn a threatening impending defeat into victory. He is attempting to avert disaster in the Russiagate investigation by a broadside of outrageous counter measures. In so doing he risks all in the hope of the ultimate prize, total unquestioned control of America. 

Like in all pursuits for a quick fix for “ultimate happiness” when the goal has been attained the withdrawal sets in and the search is on for a new challenge. The Presidential campaign and the subsequent Presidency has been an orgy for The Donald as he has been in almost status crisisiosus - mostly engineered and inflicted upon him by his good self. Even more significant for the boastful blowhard he has had unprecedented audiences watching his every move. Now he seeks total authority of the management of America without the impediment of an independent justice department. His vision of making America Great Again is to turn it into a Banana Republic.

In terms of his psychodynamics Trump now has created the ultimate challenge - he has taken on the Democracy of the United States of America. He is its CEO and he is about to prove that its laws don’t apply to him. Armed with like thinking lawyers his lifelong modus operandi has not changed - only the stakes have - namely the future of a nation.

TRUMP, JOE MCCARTHY AND COUNSELLOR ROY COHN .

The Donald’s mentor and his chief counsel from the sixties was Roy Cohn. The latter was the lawyer of the infamous persecutor Senator Joe McCarthy. In addition, Cohn’s clients included the Gambinos and he was tremendously influential in political circles. He believed that you never ever admitted any wrongdoing and that the key tactic in any adverse situation was to aggresively counter attack anything and everything that they accused you off. 

McCarthy shook American democracy to it’s foundations by creating a milieu of trial and conviction by insinuation. With his strong arm smearing and bullying tactics he labelled and sentenced alleged Communists, left leaners and liberals as traitors. The rogue Senator ruined many lives in the process and in his wake he ended many a career. McCarthy, like Trump, never backed down and kept upping the ante. After McCarthy was finally derailed, his Svengali, Roy Cohn moved onto a worthy successor, Donald J. Trump. The Donald confided to Tim O’ Brien, the author that penned, Trump Nation: The Art of Being the Donald, “Roy was brutal, but he was a very loyal guy”. That summed up Donald Trump’s own mantra in a sentence - be brutal and demanding of loyalty. 

In many ways Trump is McCarthy written large. McCarthy daily broadcasted unsubstantiated lists of who he alleged were Communists thereby exploiting, in the early fifties, the Cold War fears on the creeping Imperialist rise of the USSR. He would bully and smear opposition with lack of patriotism. Eventually McCarthy was brought down by the system and censored in the Senate by an overwhelming majority. McCarthy’s motive was mainly power. Trump’s alleged motivations, in many ways, are far more sinister. It is accepted that Putin’s Russia, a foreign power, illegally intervened in the USA elections to support his candidacy. The question that now remains is whether he and his campaign colluded in the effort and subsequent to the investigation into the affair did he attempt to obstruct justice.

  TRUMP’S RESPONSE TO “RUSSIAGATE”

The pressure is on in the battle of Trump versus American democracy and Trump has not flinched. The more the disclosures that link Trump and his campaign to Putin oligarchs the more heinous the POTUS responses are. Where others might shrink in the face of damning revelations the Donald has thrived on the sense of shock engendered by the  exposures. In spite of unanimous Intelligence Agency support for an investigation into whether he and his campaign colluded with the Russians he has not only attacked that as a “witch hunt”, he has not even accepted the premise that the Russians intervened. He has as well as attacking the investigations of the Department of Justice and in Congress, obstructed, from the word go, the course of those judicial enquiries. In so doing he has challenged one of the central tenets of American democracy, the independence of the judicial process. More significantly Trump has not disguised his attempts to thwart the judicial process. He has pulled every stratagem in the Cohn book to win the fight. 

TRUMP AFFIRMS HIS SUPPORT FOR RUSSIA 

Trump is so in “your face” on the issue that he has no hesitation in continuing his support of Putin and Russia even though this points further to his culpability. The POTUS has canvassed Congress to lessen sanctions on Russia even though the sentiment in both Houses was to stiffen them in the light of their war like intervention in the US election. He has openly favored Putin over NATO allies in his newly devised foreign policy. Trump has held at least two meetings with Putin where the full content of the discussions was not available to the suspicious American people. He has however, unashamedly, announced that he accepted Putin’s word over seventeen US Intelligence Agencies that he did not hack the US elections. He went one step further by publicly denigrating America’s Intelligence Agencies. So the POTUS rather than distance himself from Russia’s Putin who is accused of treasonous collusion with him in the Presidential election ups the ante by strengthening his relationship with him.

TRUMP OBSTRUCTS THE INVESTIGATION INTO RUSSIAGATE

Trump has done more than make it quite clear that he disapproves of the Russian investigation by actively intervening and issuing endless threats and bullying remarks. He fired the initial leader of the probe James Comey admitting to the Russian Foreign Minister and Ambassador that it was Comey’s role in the inquiry that had prompted his action. Removing Comey, he explained, would relieve pressure. In case the point was missed he repeated his motivation for the move in a TV interview with NBC’s Lester Holt. 

He then repeatedly cast aspersions on the integrity on the new Special Counsel Robert Mueller, a life long Republican, asserting that he was biased as evidenced by the fact that he had appointed staff that were known Democrats. He banally moaned that Mueller’s supervisor, Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein, came from Baltimore where there were very few Republicans. He and the WhiteHouse repeated ad nauseam that Trump had the authority to fire Mueller. The POTUS has threatened Mueller that the Trump finances are out of bounds in his probe. He stated that such enquiries would cross a line…..

The ante was ratcheted up when he unprecedentedly assailed his Attorney General with a bombardment of non stop tweets and in an interview with the New York Times. The POTUS made it clear that his most longstanding loyal minion, Sessions, had been disloyal in that he recused himself from the Russian investigation and therefore was unable to do his bidding. Had he known this he wouldn’t have appointed him! He continued that the “weak” Sessons should be investigating “crooked” Hillary and the leaks. (The reckless Trump cares naught for the implications of using the Justice Department to harass political opponents). The transparent plan is to axe the “beleagured” Jeff Sessions and replace him during a Senate break so that a new Attorney General would not be subject to Senate confirmation. Trump pursues this vendetta daily against the advice of his legal team, aides and a growing number of Republicans including the Head of the Senate Judiciary Committee Chuck Grassley that would have to vet Attorney General nominations . Sessions, Trump is learning, has much more support than was evident to the POTUS. 

New insights were gained into Christopher Wray Trump’s nominee to replace fired FBI Director Comey. Wray, who in his confirmation hearings swore integrity to justice up the ying yang, is being looked at in a new light as a result of Trump opining in his Times interview that the FBI Director should report to the President directly and not to the Department of Justice. Rachel Maddow uncovered that Wray was the disgraced Christie’s lawyer in the BridgeGate scandal and there had been much negative speculation as to his role in that position. Christie had apparently put Wray’s name forward. All this has occasioned a delay in his confirmation as the Democrats are asking for a guarantee that he will not fire Mueller.

This sequence of events adds up to a resounding prima facie case for obstruction of justice.

TRUMP’S ANSWER TO THE PROBLEM - PRESIDENTIAL PARDONS

The Obstruction of Justice charge is easily coupled with an Abuse of Power indictment as The Donald rampages on. Again for all the world to note the pardoning of the dramatis personae in the Russian scandal has been mooted by the President and his legal team. In addition it has been affirmed again and again that it is within the President’s purview to pardon himself. The incongruity of these threats is not apparent to the Presidential tweeter. On the one hand he maintains that he and his campaign staff did nothing wrong with their meetings and contacts with the Russians and on the other he will issue pardons to exonerate.  

What Trump ignores is that the Constitution specifically excludes Impeachment in his pardoning powers but that is a minor detail in his scheme of things.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

* By now all those who believed that The Donald would become Presidential when he assumed the Office have to be disabused of that fantasy. As time proceeds he follows and embellishes the playbook of his mentor Roy Cohn and his most infamous client Joe McCarthy. His legal team are clones of the deceased Counsel who was both “brutal and loyal”. 

* Trump for his part will up the ante and fight to the bitter end. He will confront rather than compromise and negotiate. He is addicted to the high he gets when starting fights which by definition contain a risk of losing. When the political front is relatively quiet he obtains his fix by mercilessly sallying into individuals such as TV or Movie personalities. He sadistically uses his bully pulpit in the true sense of the term to belittle and denigrate those who have had the audacity to oppose him. 

* The fear in all of this is that American Democracy might disintegrate. He hinted during the campaign that the system was rigged and that if he should fail only the Second Amendment People would be able to do anything about it. Trump as President no longer has to tilt at windmills. As Commander in Chief he is head of all the armed forces and if deposed he will call upon the Second Amendment People.

* While the Republican intelligentsia have almost to a man stepped up to the plate in recognizing the danger that Trump represents the leaders in Congress have not as yet accepted their challenge in rescuing the Republic from falling into the abyss. Senate Majority Leader McConnell, whose place in history is already enshrined for his unparliamentary obstructionism in Obama’s Presidency and his disgraceful stealing of a Supreme Court Judgeship from a highly qualified contender, is playing games in the Senate with TrumpCare which seventy percent of the population reject. To quote the former Republican House Speaker, John Boehner Obamacare can never be replaced as the Republican Governors want it. There are no words to describe the spinelessness of House Speaker Paul Ryan who believes a tax cut takes priority over the values this country was founded on. 

* There is, however, a glimmer of hope in that the House of Representatives passed an all embracing sanctions resolution in response to the Russian’s intervention in the 2016 Presidential election by four hundred and nineteen votes to three. This follows on the original Senate resolution which was affirmed by ninety - eight votes to two. The resolution specifically bans the POTUS from modifying the legislation. All this is in the teeth of Trump’s request to lessen existing sanctions. Also there allegedly have been warnings to the WhiteHouse that if he axes Mueller that the consequences could be dire. That wont stop Trump who needs his fix but the fact that the Republicans may act is encouraging. If they don’t act Trump’s inevitable departure will have to wait till 2019 with another two years destruction in the interim.

* The choice is simple - stop Trump or bear witness to the death of democracy.

* Whatever happens this is going to be ugly so fasten your seat belts and prepare for a bumpy ride. 

WIMBLEDON AND FEDERER - NOSTALGIA FOR ANOTHER ERA

This past fortnight saw a welcome return to order, predictability and normality in the form of the annual “All England Lawn Tennis Championships” played at the hallowed “All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club”, as it has been since 1877. It was played on grass - the only grand slam still played on that surface and the dress was all white - the only grand slam where this is still demanded - all as it has been for the past 149 years. The only break was during the second world war when the Nazis mistakenly believed that bombing Center Court would break Churchill and the British people’s resolve. To add to the nostalgia, in a world, which has been taken over by fake news, cynicism and greed, the greatest champion ever, Roger Federer, stamped his class on the event by winning it for a record eighth occasion. This feat after a four year break from the winner’s circle.  Federer is not only the world’s best player ever, he, in the words of John McEnroe, is the greatest gentleman ever to have graced the game. All in all a welcome respite from the gross behavior of celebrities of every endeavor that have been a feature of the second millennium and thereafter. 

Wimbledon is tradition personified. It hails from the glory days of England when Queen Victoria reigned and the sun never set on the British Empire. Unlike most sports stadiums it is owned by an elite club. It stands as a monument to those wonderful days when Britannia ruled the waves and its status is not compromised by the fact that the Island Empire has been relegated to being a third rate world power. 

EVERYONE WHO SHOULD BE THERE IS THERE

It is all so perfect and nice. The ivy which clings to the walls in an arena, which although it has changed over the century and a half of its existence, is still recognizable to those who have worshipped at the shrine for decades. All alterations are tastefully executed so as not to detract from the dignity of the past. It is also comforting to know;  that the ballboys and girls, in navy blue will be regimented and disciplined hurrying to their designated positions and then standing at attention with their hands neatly behind their backs; that the linespeople, dressed in blue and white striped shirts and Wimbledon ties with deerstalkers will remain motionless till they punctuate the hallowed ground with their calls; that the umpire, who dons a jacket and tie as do all the spectator members, will be firm and impartial making his rulings crisply for all to hear while paternalistically tolerating the occasional bad behavior of the gentleman and lady players who are always called Mr. or Miss or Mrs; that the grounds people dressed in green are ever ready to put on the covers should it rain and that the Chelsea War Pensioners in their resplendent red uniforms, who occupy a corner on Center Court, lend color to the proceedings.  

Then there is the royal box where the royalty and other dignitaries including some prestigious club members view the grand old game. Till recently the Queen of England was the patron a position now taken over by her daughter - in - law Kate Middleton aka the Duchess of Cambridge or the wife of Prince William. Kate and her hubby were present at the final as was British Prime Minister Theresa May. There are only three hundred and fifty members of this, the most, prestigious club in the world - who represent exclusivity that money alone cannot buy - breeding and connections still count. There are seventy temporary members which avenue represents the commoner’s best shot of becoming one of the “boys”. But before Jay H. Ell raises your hopes that can only be achieved by winning a Wimbledon Singles Championship or by marrying a Prince as Kate Middleton recently did. The Club itself is the last testament to snobbery. 

The Championships are stage managed in the best heritage of pomp and splendor. From the choreographed walk of the finalists onto the turf,  their bags carried by distinguished looking flunkies, to their coin toss and ritual photograph with the umpire, to the prize giving where the ball boys and girls form a line of honor and dutifully bow or curtsy when introduced to the Duke or Duchess of Kent who dish out the trophies. These customs are repeated year after a year. Then there is the ceremonial walk around by the winner which in recent years has been extended to include the hallowed corridors of the old club with its pictures and memorabilia of championships gone by. The engraving of the winners name on the honors board immediately after the outcome all dutifully recorded for the viewer is a neat touch. It is all so certain in this world of uncertainty - a respite from the humdrum of chaos.

THE GRASS IS GREENER AT WIMBLEDON.

The year prior to the All England Championships is spent tending to the lawns for the tournament - both in repairing and then preparing it. Never a tournament passes without the commentators commenting on the manicured perfection which is mowed and rolled day after each day. There is no play on the first Sunday of the tournament to give the deified grass “a rest”. The two score or so courts are as green, flat and smooth as billiard tables. There is the annual mention by the commentators that the base lines of Center Court and Court One are brown and “beginning to wear” from the two weeks hammering as if it is mandatory to point out that even perfection isn’t quite perfect. 

The faithful are reminded that this Grand Slam is the only one played on grass and that is why it is regarded as the purest test of greatness. It is taken for granted that any and every tennis player if he or she could only win one slam it would be Wimbledon. Ivan Lendl who dominated tennis in the late eighties winning eight Grand Slams, (McEnroe only won seven), ninety - four career titles, being world number one for two hundred and seventy weeks and winning seven end of the year “World Titles”, never won Wimbledon. He tried all he could changing rackets missing a French Open which he had won three times in order to concentrate on the main grass prize. But in spite of two finals and five semi finals in the 1980’s where he was a Wimbledon feature, to his chagrin the main tennis prize alluded him. As a result he is hardly remembered if at all. 

This reverence to grass lawn is quite ironic as the French Open, the only one played on clay, is not given the slightest respect in spite of the uniqueness of its surface. Clay rather than being considered a parameter of tennis strength is considered a bit of an anomaly only to be tolerated because of tradition and as noblesse oblige to the Latin speakers of this world. 

But there is a far deeper significance to the dogged attention and retention of the Lawn at The All England Lawn Tennis Championship as Yuval Harari lays out in his depressing new opus which outlines “A Brief History of Tomorrow”. In Homo Sapiens relentless push for power and prestige the lawn became one of the earliest symbols. The bigger and the neater the lawns, that stretched as far as the eye could see, that adorned the Castles and Chateauxs, the more powerful the owner was believed to be. If the grass became unkempt it was a sign the Lord of the Manor was in financial trouble. All prestigious buildings, since, have their showcase lawns  - from Palaces, to Parliaments while any decent home boasts its turf. Other than in sports stadiums where on the sacred turf many a glorious battle is played out, the general injunction is “keep of the grass”. 

Now lawns in their own right are pretty useless and costly accessories. They produce no agriculture and you cannot graze livestock on them. They are merely expensive adornments and status symbols. It is therefore not surprising that in 1978 the United States Tennis Association, (USTA), that controls the US Open Grand Slam decided to call the labor intensive business of lawn courts a day. In so doing they epitomized the difference between a culture of tradition and one of pragmatism, entrepreneurship and disdain for tradition. The USTA decided to leave the lawn tending to the WhiteHouse. 

FEDERER UBER ALLES

Jay H. Ell in his wallowing in the magic of the past forgot to emphasize the majesty of the present. Whether it be Beethoven or the Beatles, Pele or Messi, Van Gogh or Pollock, Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds, Shakespeare or Hemingway, Wilt Chamberlain or Michael Jordan or Laver or Federer, genius is a thing of beauty to behold. This year Roger Federer affirmed that status by winning two of the Grand Slam Championships he has participated in giving him a record total of nineteen Majors - four ahead of his greatest rival Rafael Nadal, arguably the second greatest tennis player in history. What has made Federer’s achievements so noteworthy has been the rivalry with this dominant competitor who in a different era would have been the undisputed king. All this akin to the comment of Bing Crosby when asked to comment about Frank Sinatra’s voice he replied dolefully -  the greatest ever and my luck to be singing at the same time.

Superlatives in describing Federer in every aspect of his game do not do justice for the man who has now won, at the age of thirty - six,  a record eight Wimbledon Men Single’s titles. His tennis style is literally poetry in motion. The fluidity of his play, his all round game, his temperament, his sportsmanship and his behavior have made him the crowd’s favorite wherever he plays. The husband, the father, the son, the philanthropist and the “mensch” have resulted in him being recognized as a celebrity ambassador to achievement, kindness and citizenship. A conventional role model in this crass day and age.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

So the tennis camps have packed up and are ready to move onto the US open, the final Grand Slam of the year. This will be played at the Billie Jean King Tennis Center, the biggest in the world and will be decided on the unique synthetic deco turf on Arthur Ashe Center Court. The latter was constructed in 1997 at a cost of a quarter billion dollars and replaced the Louis Armstrong Court as the center court. If Wimbledon represents old world class the Ashe stadium serves as a modern day reminder of the Coliseum gladiatorial contests. This year promises to feature Federer and his arch rival Nadal who will continue their over a decade’s  rivalry that has riveted the tennis world. 

Crowds will shout and scream at the participants that are resplendent in garb that is anything but white. Here Federer is equally at home having won five times and as always the favorite of the screaming unruly mob, not one of whom will be wearing a tie and jacket. As always in his acceptance winning speech Federer graciously pays tribute and thanks to the appreciative crowd. The only feature constant between the old and the new world is their worship of genius.  

Form Jay H. Ell’s world he can only hope that the August US Open will do for his battered psyche what Wimbledon did, thereby affording him the opportunity to program out the reality of the world around him for two blessed weeks.

IS THE TRUMP PRESIDENCY HISTORY?

The whole Trump Russian narrative has been conclusively negated by the explosive exposure that his son, his chief advisor and campaign manager colluded with Russia’s interference, in the Presidential election. That added to Trump’s surreal meeting with Putin, which underlined his “inexplicable” preference of Russia over America’s traditional NATO allies and Trump’s slavish obsequious behavior towards mother Russia in canvassing Congress to lessen sanctions has ratcheted the talk of impeachment up several notches. While the latter is unlikely at the moment the additive effect, on the already chaotic Presidency, with the ever growing disclosures of the Trump campaign involvement in the Russian perfidy, will ultimately seal his fate. All this has to have an impact on the Republican Party and the actions of the Vice President.

Historians have an annoying way of analyzing situations when the outcome is already in the books. They explain, paternalistically, that what had transpired was obvious to all but the blind, deaf and ignorant way before the denouement. They identify the “clear” signs that indicated the writing was on the wall. They then detail, with scholastic aplomb, the self evident sequelae of the issue. However, when asked to prognosticate, with the same degree of certainty, on a “current happening” they argue that as there is no precedent they are not able to do so - so let it be with Trump’s Presidency. 

WILL TRUMP LAST?

As Jay H. Ell is not a historian he has nothing to lose by forecasting that The Donald’s reign will be dispatched to the dustbin of history before his term is up. In fact it is on track to being shelved by early 2019. This is brave stuff as there only has been one instance in history where a President didn't see out his term and didn’t leave the WhiteHouse in a casket.  Also The Donald’s personality would not allow him to do the gentleman like thing and resign even if there was no hope that he would be able to continue.  As he cannot be criminally charged or removed by the Party Caucus he would have to be impeached. To do so the Republicans would have to be convinced that hanging onto him is more disastrous than axing him. If they delay their decision then the Democrats should have a healthy majority in the House of Representatives post the November 2018 election and they could proceed. 

THE CHAOS PRESIDENCY

Jed Bush’s prognostication, (he also isn’t an historian), that his would be a chaos Presidency has turned out to be a masterpiece of understatement.  Trump has no credibility whatsoever. (Blog: Trump: The Post Truth President). Over six months into his Presidency only 47 of the 557 key positions of his Administration have been confirmed by the Senate. There are constant battles amongst his staff in his WhiteHouse which leaks like a sieve. The media run inside stories, that are systematically denied by the WhiteHouse spokespeople. Repeatedly it is affirmed that Chief of Staff, Reince Priebus, is about to be axed. Lately there are reports that there is friction between Trump and his son in law Jared Kushner who it is rumored is responsible for revealing the Russian meeting. The latter, it is claimed, is only thinking of his own skin and not his father - in - laws. The communications team, where there is a struggle for ascendancy between Sean Spicer and Sarah Huckabee Sanders, is such a disaster that they now hold their press briefings off camera presumably not to preempt the spoofs of them on Saturday Night Live.

There is a disconnect between Trump and the Republican legislature. He changes position all the time making a commitment to a Trump policy a crap shoot. He is never on the same page for very long and has been AWOL while Senate elder McConnell plods on gamely to put Trumpcare in place. It is obvious that after he first applauded and then called the House of Representative’s version of Trumpcare “mean” that no one needs the President effecting the traditional role of being involved in getting legislation passed. The upshot is that, in spite of his campaign boasting rhetoric the only one meaningful piece of legislation that has crossed his desk involved speeding up the process whereby the Veteran Administration could fire inept employees. The other thirty nine signed pieces of law are all procedural and come nowhere near changing the world as he promised he would do. 

Similarly, he can even leave his own cabinet high and dry. When he came back from the Putin meeting he was punting a combined project on cyber security with the former KGB operative. The initiative was greeted by derision by many in his own party. He quickly backed down but not soon enough to prevent Secretary Minuchin’s full court press on the virtues of Trump’s American/Russian collaboration. Trump is being criticized with monotonous regularity by influential Senators Graham and McCain and there are very few that are prepared to openly and vociferously support him. 

In all this there are Congress Committees working feverishly to get to the bottom of Russiagate. There is bipartisan agreement that the Russian’s hacked the Presidential election to favor Trump and that the investigation by the FBI is not “the greatest political witch hunt ever conducted by the Democratic Party to avenge a loss”. Furthermore the Republican legislators are beginning to hedge their bets and are open to exploring such avenues such as Presidential criminality, obstruction of justice as well as establishing whether or not the Trump campaign colluded or not with Russia. 

Trump in the midst of all this chaos has not changed his modus operandi. He tweets. For three days since returning from the G20 he was totally non communicado having no official engagements. A circumstance which former WhiteHouse staff employees claim to be unheard off. His claim that the first time he learned of his son’s meeting with the Russian operative was when it hit the fan in The New York Times is being laughed out of court. He inanely claimed that his son, Donald J. Trump Jnr., had been transparent in releasing the incriminating e mails omitting the fact that he did so when he learned that they were about to be released by the Times. This too after Junior had changed his story three times on the matter. He even defends Junior for holding the meeting. The absurd POTUS is now claiming that Putin would have preferred Hillary as President!

So it is not unreasonable to argue that at kindest this President is incompetent and has no credibility. He has no natural support or loyalty from the Republicans in Congress who will dump him if it is politically advantageous to do so. Some like Graham will put country first and axe him regardless of the political implications if Muller presents the evidence.

THE REPUBLICANS AND THEIR PARTY.

The differing Republican Party’s factions have become more obvious with the failure to advance the components of the Trump agenda that are in sync with the old conservative party line. It is important to point out that Trump is not a Republican in the traditional sense and his advent and takeover of the Party has added to the woes of those who make up the various wings of the GOP. To complicate matters some of the Establishment like the former Chairman of the Republican National Committee, Reince Priebus, have thrown in their lot with him as have several of the GOP hopefuls in the Primary. Even Mitt Romney, his most articulate detractor, after conducting a last ditch effort to derail his nomination sold his soul in the hope of being nominated as Secretary of State. All these opportunists are in big big trouble in a showdown and will have exiled themselves to political oblivion in a future GOP shake up.

Other than the Trump faction there are the purists or centrists like Ryan and McConnell who still occupy the key leadership positions in Congress. Then there are the left leaning group lead by Susan Collins and the right wing Tea Party crowd such as Cruz in the Senate and The Freedom Party in the House. At present these three factions are battling to pass their versions of Trumpcare and getting nowhere. More significantly their voters are protesting dramatically at their efforts. Most vociferous are those Republicans and their Governors who  don’t want Obamacare removed. Ostensibly there is a big Republican constituency out there that want it “repealed” but they are nowhere in sight. Trump is no help as he is all over the show as usual. He desperately wants a victory but policy wise he really wants an improvement on Obamacare - that is what he promised. 

At the moment all the non Trump factions are under nomination threat or voter threat for their continued existence. The big money Koch’s want a conservative agenda and have allocated four hundred million dollars for the midterms and a pose a threat to non delivering conservative Republicans. The liberal and more middle of the road Republicans are worried that if the current eight percent swing to the Democrats is maintained  they, too, are history. 

WHAT HAPPENS IF SPECIAL COUNSEL MUELLER FINDS PRESIDENTIAL CULPABILITY?

Now throw into the mix a report from Special Counsel Mueller that shows abuse of power and or obstruction of justice by the President with or without collusion by him and his campaign with the Russians in their attack on American democracy. In addition the Mueller investigation is said to be heavily into the finances surrounding Trump and his entourage. What do the legislators do? Jay H. Ell believes if it happened tomorrow they would stick with Trump. The Republican base have not caught up with Russia yet and they are still waiting, like Godot, for Trump to deliver.

Certain factors could change the equation. The longer this drags on and paralyzes all progress the more likely Trump will continue to shed support of the electorate and their legislators. In addition as this scandal evolves and the more the electorate realize that their own representatives have bought into the narrative of the Intelligence Agencies the more likely they will withdraw their support of Trump. Likewise Trump will appear less credible because he would have failed them on reopening the coal mines, increasing wages, producing millions of infrastructure jobs and the like. Specifically, the outcome of the healthcare legislation will impact markedly on the Republican electorate. If the result is not what Trump promised his base he will lose followers regardless of how the other factions of the Party view the legislation.

So a disastrous report from Mueller, even issued before the midterms, on top of the fact that the non delivering Trump is way off line from the Congress consensus on Russiagate, could spell disaster for the POTUS. As each day passes things can only get worse. If a negative report comes after the November 2018 elections Trump would be toast.

VICE PRESIDENT MIKE PENCE

You don’t hear too much if anything from the VP. Apparently he is running around the Party caucuses trying to get stuff done. The fact that Trump schlepps him nowhere and he keeps his distance can only mean one thing - he is trying as far as possible to disassociate himself from the POTUS. He has thus earlier than most staked out his position. In the event that Trump survives he will be looking for another running mate in 2020. Pence, as demonstrated by his lukewarm support of Trump, apparently is prepared to take the risk. That should tell the pundits something. As an aside Pence is so compromised with his early denials that any meetings took place between Trump operatives and Russia that if and when he is fully exposed to the glare of publicity he will not survive. 

 OTHER OUTCOMES

* As intimated earlier on The Donald is not simply going to go away. He will try and rally support from the faithful and say it is all rigged yada yada yada - he is all but saying it already. So the future whichever way it is viewed will be a rocky ride. He won’t be phased by the Republicans turning on him. He will claim that they are all sell outs anyway and part of the swamp. Only he alone stands for the little people.

* Watch out for the big fake news dump on “Crooked” Hillary and “Kenyan” Obama 

* This is the day in history that the Trump Presidency irreversibly went on the skids.

* Then there is always a possibility that the Donald survives and the electorate support his dysfunctional post truth Presidency in perpetuity. If that happens the USA will need two walls, one on each of its borders so as to keep the majority of its citizens from fleeing to Mexico and Canada.