UNHINGED TRUMP’S HOLD ON HIS BASE BEGINS TO SLIP

Amidst the growing chaos of his Presidency, with him lashing out at the media in an unprecedented fashion and even punishing the architect of Osama Bib Laden’s capture, the one factor that has allowed Donald J. Trump to remain on the offensive is his belief that his base will stand by him through thick and thin. Even though there are growing signs of  disaffection, as far as he is concerned, nothing has changed from the day he commented on the campaign, that even if he shot someone on 5th Avenue it would not lose him a jot of support. His ongoing assessment has resulted in him making no effort to be the President of all America because all he needs is his base. 

Where Trump miscalculates is that his base’s backing may be enough to keep control of the Republican Party but not enough to reelect him President. His freak victory, with a minority of votes, needed, besides his base, another seven percent of the electorate which by all counts he has already lost. However, if the base remains firm it makes his impeachment highly unlikely. The key reason for that is that the current Republican legislators will stick by him if he still controls over eighty percent of the Party  - that is forty percent of the electorate. 

Two factors could dent Trump’s narrative and could cause GOP legislators to jump ship - a devastating Mueller referral coupled with a beating in the midterms. Trump would have cost them seats and that would be definitive evidence that even in safe Republican seats his base support has eroded. As they owe him no loyalty they will abandon ship in a heartbeat.

TRUMP: KEEP THE FORTY PERCENT BASE  AND SURVIVE

As survival is Trump’s principal objective and the biggest immediate threat in his mind is impeachment his strategy is geared to feeding his base a narrative that illigetimizes the Special Counsel and his probe. He has likened the probe to McCarthyism. Trump and his TV lawyer Rudi Giuliani, if their behavior is anything to go by, are expecting a scorching report from Mueller and consequently have abandoned any effort at maintaining a consistent story. They change the narrative with monotonous regularity. For example Trump initially argued that his injunction to Comey to drop the investigation against his National Security Advisor Michael Flynn was not obstruction of justice. Now he claims that he never even had the conversation. The smears on Mueller, Rod Rosenstein et al are escalating. This game plan holds only if Trump retains his base. 

The issue is, are there any pointers that Trump’s forty percent base is budging? The short answer is that his poll support remains firm but there is plenty to show that there are cracks in the cult leader’s following. Put another way when asked by the pollsters the Republican base are saying that they approve of the Trump Presidency but some, by their actions, are acting decidedly otherwise.

SPECIAL ELECTIONS AND MIDTERMS

 The State and National special elections have been a disaster for Trump. Most of his endorsements have come unstuck. The recent very poor showing in Ohio has pointed to the fact that the forty percent maybe saying yes to the pollsters but a large number either didn’t show up or voted against. This in spite of the fact that Trump took an unprecedented step for a sitting President by intervening in a local election with endorsements and holding a rally in support. The Ohio constituency has two Republicans registered for every one Democrat. Trump won the district by eleven percentage points in 2016 yet the outcome is still in the balance. At best the GOP will retain the seat with 0.5% majority. Trump’s base did not pitch up in the usual numbers. Ohio is a rerun to a lesser or greater extent of fifty such special elections. 

Other parameters point to a major midterm swing and an erosion of the base: there are seventy House seats that are more vulnerable than Ohio; a Presidential approval rating of forty percent historically predicts a big loss as does the large number of Republican incumbents not standing for election.

BACKGROUND PROBLEMS.

The President is beset with problems most of which impinge directly on the Mueller investigation. He could manage these singly but the additive effect is unhinging him as his tweets would indicate. Front and foremost are the threats posed by former insiders, Omarosa and Cohen, who have had a long time exposure to his inner workings. Both have tapes of conversations that could back up their attacks. Mueller’s prosecutions continue. The noose is tightening around his long term political associates, Roger Stone and Carter Page where there is public knowledge of their involvement with Russia. His swampy administration is riddled with nepotism, cronyism,  pay for play and a revolving staff door. The recent revelation on Omarosa’s tapes that Republican Party and Campaign money to the extent of a $180,000 a year per person is being paid to shut up those operatives who leave the WhiteHouse is sure to cause a backlash. 

His much vaunted tax bill is gaining no traction on the stump so he is left with immigration as his main election platform. The cruel separation of families may have firmed a section of the base but he has lost many Republican women as a result. Then there are those that are already cooperating with Mueller such as Flynn, Gates and Papadopoulos that add to his worries. While the Republican Legislature are very wary about censoring him they have made it quite clear, to date, that the Russian Investigation must continue. 

While none of this or anything else persuades the forty percent not to tell the pollsters that they approve of Trump they have obviously resulted in sections of the faithful faltering. What has to really concern the POTUS, however, is the new poll evidence that Giuliani and his campaign to denigrate Mueller and his probe is not taking hold.

THE RECENT CNN POLLS ON TRUMP’S HANDLING OF RUSSIA

• Only thirty - four percent of respondents answered that Trump is handling the Russian Investigation well. A similar percentage maintained that his statements have been true or mostly true.
• Seventy percent responded that Trump should agree to an interview with Mueller.
• The lowest percentage ever, for a Supreme Court confirmation,  thirty - seven percent, favor Kavanaugh’s endorsement.  (Kavanaugh doesn’t believe that Trump should be subpoenaed or indicted).
• In a generic poll the Democrats lead the Republicans by eleven points which puts at least seventy seats in play in the House of Representatives. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY - TRUMP’S SUPPORT IS ERODING

These polls confirm that there is a peeling off of support on the narrative that Trump and Giuliani are offering on the Mueller investigation. Particularly instructive is the fact that on the question of Trump, under oath, sitting down with Mueller seventy percent polled in the affirmative. This does not bode well for the prolonged fight that Giuliani is provoking when challenging Mueller to subpoena the POTUS. The sentiment relating to the Kavanaugh nomination, which is central to the Trump policy of fighting a subpoena, sends the same message - that Trump should cooperate with the Mueller investigation. This is taking place concomitant with election reversals that reaffirm a loss from the forty percent base.

Giuliani is sending a double message to Muller - complete your investigation within a few weeks and at the same time he is providing him with the wherewithal to prolong it by taunting him that he would challenge a subpoena up to the Supreme Court. Mueller should take the challenge, within three months he will have legislative backing and proving “collusion” has to be all but done. The more time Mueller has the better.

IN DESPERATiON TRUMP EXTENDS THE DAY 

The Donald desperate to reverse the trend, as a diversionary tactic, took the unprecedented decision to revoke the security clearance of former CIA Director, John Brennon. This resulted in fourteen former Intelligence Heads and overall seventy - five  CIA officials condemning the President’s restriction of free speech for political purposes. Trump responded characteristically by announcing the imminent withdrawal of another security clearance because of the “Russian Thing”. Two of the heads have countered that they would be honored if Trump withdrew their security clearances as well. It is not surprising that everyone he is threatening is related to that “Russian Thing”.

In response to nearly four hundred editorials written by newspapers big and small across the country condemning his attack on the freedom of the press by labelling them “The enemy of the People”, Trump doubled down by maintaining their combined protest was “collusion”.

Desperate too at what a Manafort conviction might mean to the Russia investigation he attacked the prosecution “witch hunt” and vouched for his embattled former Campaign Manager. This is jury tampering and in Western countries would be considered contempt of court. The Manafort jury now can relate to the fear engendered by foreign dictators when they threaten those who wish to maintain the rule of law. Imagine an anxious juror’s reaction to the President’s criticism of the prosecution coupled with his “punishing” political opponents? The Judge who has been liberal with his criticism of the prosecution should have saved some of his venom for calling out the President from the bench for jury tampering. Trump’s behavior is an affront to his court.

The fact that the Pentagon and Washington DC have rained out his military parade, which has gone the way of his wall, has incensed the thin skinned President. Predictably he lashed out with demeaning and false tweets directed at DC’s female African American Mayor. 

THE GOP LEGISLATORS ENABLING OF TRUMP

The Republican Party legislators who are hoping against hope that Trump can turn the tide would be better served by serving their country by censoring the President. There is little doubt that their spinelessness contributes to the base sticking to Trump. The irony is that the silent Senate Republicans are hard at work trying to secure the nomination of s Supreme Court Judge who is against subpoenaing or indicting the POTUS. The GOP legislators will go down in infamy as they have stood by and watched every one of their principles go down the drain supposedly because of a tax cut but really for their pathetic need to remain in Congress.

Trump will have his day in November when the midterms will be a referendum about him. Meanwhile hold onto your seats as America is in for a rough ride. As Trump believes he is America he could drag the country down with him. One outcome that is for sure till his last breath Trump will scream victory and victimization simultaneously.

A DAY IN THE LIFE OF TRUMP’S SWAMP

August 10, 2018 - a day in the life in Trump’s swamp: 

The following stories all appeared in the media on an ordinary news day in Trumpland. Trump on the campaign trail, to hysterical shouts and cheers, promised to drain the Washington swamp and substitute it with transparent honest government with administrators who believed in the rule of law. At his recent rallies his team dished out posters claiming “PROMISES MADE PROMISES KEPT”. 

To showcase the swamp created and infested by Trump in his five hundred and seventy odd days in office would take a tome so Jay H. Ell decided to examine just one day - 8/10/18 - the day when the idea hit him.

TEAM TRUMP AND THE SWAMP

Trump  explained to the screaming masses, most of whom were poor, why he wouldn’t put poor  people in his administration as rich people had no need to steal. He promised to associate only with the best in his campaign and in running the country. While this claim and the humungous turnover in his administration, largely dictated by their swampy behavior, has become the basic material of every late night comedian or comedienne, Jay H. Ell will just enumerate those who landed in the swamp on 10/8/18. Well there was his personal lawyer, his campaign manager, his deputy campaign manager, his Secretary of Commerce, his main defender in the Legislature, and the first legislator in the House of Representatives to support his candidature for President. There was his long time political advisor and several of his sidekicks . To complete the day’s dive into the swamp his former Apprentice associate and subsequent liaison with the African American community jumped out with a book.  

Wilbur Ross - Secretary of Commerce.

The conservative Forbes Magazine published an expose of Ross’s theft, corruption and grifting to the extent of a hundred and twenty million dollars, lying to the Federal Government and shorting shares of a company based on his inside knowledge. Ross has been labelled the biggest creature in the swamp.  Not surprisingly Ross has had suspicious contacts and involvement with the Putin based oligarchs. Presumably all or most was known to swampy Trumpy as he had to have seen Ross’s background check.

Michael Cohen - Former personal lawyer and fixer.

Cohen has been in the news lately following the seizure of his documents. He is being investigated for multiple crimes and is desirous, according to reports, of cooperating with the Mueller Investigation. Cohen was involved in contacts with the Russians. His exposure to a long term jail time has been increased exponentially by reports that his partner in the taxi business, also an underworld character, has ratted on him and there is a ton of cash that no tax was paid on. Trump smeared Cohen as being a “lowlife”. A "lowlife" who Trump employed for years to clean up all his "lowlife" messes.  

Paul Manafort - Campaign Manager for four months.

Manafort’s extensive connections with Russia, his bank fraud and tax evasion spilled over into the court proceedings. On 8/10/18 his connections with Russian oligarchs close to Putin were in evidence. 

Rick Gates - Deputy Campaign Manager from 2016 and working in one or other capacity in the Campaign till June 2017

Gates was as implicated as Manafort but elected to receive immunity in return for joining the Mueller team.

Devon Nunes - Head of the House Intelligence Committee

Nunes has been the unashamed fixer for Trump in the House of Representatives even proposing the impeachment of Rod Rosenstein Deputy Attorney General, who is supervising the Mueller Probe. Nunes was taped at a private fundraiser arguing that the reason that the Republicans must retain the House was to protect Trump from the Investigation.

Republican Representative of New York 27th District, Christopher Collins

Collins was the first Congressman to endorse candidate Trump and has been rewarded handsomely. The Feds announced that he acted on inside information and shares were sold in a company that he was a director of. Footage of him making the illegal calls on the WhiteHouse lawn were featured.

Roger Stone - long time political advisor to Trump including his campaign

Stone came into focus when he recently predicted that he is probably going to be indicted by Mueller. He was mentioned in the indictment against the twelve Russian hackers. He has admitted contact with Julian Assange of Wikileaks prior to his Clinton document dump. His comments on the subpoenaing of his associates were all of the rage in the media on 8/10/18. Stone is thought to be one of those who put the “collusion” into “no collusion”.

Andrew Miller - long time associate of Roger Stone

Miller gave the Stone issue sunlight by refusing to testify to Mueller’s Grand Jury. This after a ninety - two page judgement ordered him to do so.

Kristen Davis - Stone’s Former Secretary

Davis gave evidence to Mueller’s grand jury being the fifth known Stone associate to be in Mueller’s notebook.

Omarosa - Trump’s Personal Assistant and decade’s long confidant.

This pretty normal news day for Trump was punctuated by the announcement of the publication of an expose by former Trump insider and confidant Omarosa Manigault - Newman. Always referred to as Omarosa she goes back a long way with Donald Trump matching him for outrageousness on his TV show “The Apprentice”. She had been cast as the villain in a number of the series starting on day one in 2004. She was the ideal foil for Trump relishing in the attention in being the female counterpart of the boorish host of the show. Then to all and sundry’s amazement, Trump appointed her as a close highly paid personal advisor in the WhiteHouse. She was considered the consummate insider, Ivanka only being that close for longer, so her  tell all slashing memoir, which has a host of salacious disturbing but mostly unconfirmed insights, will attract maximum media attention. Having been around this long and as Director of Communications for the Office of Public Liaison and serving as Trump’s go to person to the African American community where she was reviled, Omarosa is very much a recognizable controversial public persona. 

Besides labelling Trump as a racist and claiming that there were tapes where he repeated the N word multiple times she details incidents such as Trump asking her if he should take his Presidential Oath on “The Art of The Deal”. She justified her claim that Trump’s relationship with his daughter Ivanka was inappropriate by detailing touchings and verbal banter. There are also political allusions such as the real collusion in the election was between Fox News and Trump.

In a different age with a different President this book would have been a sensation. However it is just more slime in the swamp that is Trump’s. She is ensured of great sales as already Sarah Huckabee Sanders has attacked it. Trump ensured more attention to her claims by calling her a “lowlife”. Another “lowlife” whom Trump appointed to the access to the WhiteHouse in his effort to drain the swamp.

One thing is for sure, however self serving Omarosa may be, her claim that Trump was a racist was supported by Trump himself as on that same day reference was made to the POTUS calling Lebron James, Maxine Walters and Don Lemon “low intelligence”. Her greatest ally is the fact that the WhiteHouse has zero credibility.

TRUMP’S GOOD GOVERNMENT AND THE SWAMP

There was a litany of cronyism, nepotism, authoritarianism, racism and lies in evidence on 8/10/18.

That’s what friends are for.

Trump in his bizarre trade war fight created another situation ripe for graft. The aluminum tariffs is one such an example as companies are entitled to file for an exclusion from the tariffs. Exclusions were to be granted for products that could not be produced in the USA. The New York Times, on 8/10/18, reported of an exclusion granted to a close Putin associate, Mr. Deripaska. The latter is the major shareholder in a company called Rural. The Russian oligarch had been blacklisted in response to Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. He had another red flag item in his resume, he was the oligarch that Trump’s campaign manger Paul Manafort offered briefings to on the 2016 election.

If you can’t help family who can you help?

Keeping America safe and pure was his promise on immigration. The ideal solution would be to curtail immigration totally and throw out of the country the approximately eleven million who were “illegal”. One of the other stratagems was to ban “ chain” immigrants, who were defined as close relatives of other immigrants who had become citizens. As anyone who has applied for a parent or a sibling can attest to the wait is very long as only a limited number of entries are allowed of per year. While Trump was attacking “chain” immigration mercilessly having characterized it as NOT ACCEPTABLE his in laws were being processed. 

It takes forever to obtain a green card and once that arrives there is a five year wait. If then one applies for citizenship there is yet another wait for the ceremony. All in all on a fast track, if someone’s application is accepted to settle in America it would take seven to ten years to become a citizen. The parents of the POTUS’S wife, First Lady Melania, citizenship was announced on 8/10/18. Nobody knows how long it took the Knavs whose application was based on “family reunification”, (a.k.a. “Chain” immigration). What is known that while he was making the axing of “chain” immigration a key plank in his policy pitch his in laws application was being  successfully processed.

Trump’s Zero Tolerance policy and the abrogation of the rule of law

One of Trump’s big arguments on resolving America’s immigration mess was that America was a nation of laws. Apparently Trump and his administration believe that this only applies to laws that they agree with. Trump and Sessions have been hammered in the court of public opinion for months now for their base cruelty in splitting up families and holding children in detention often in shocking conditions. There are also laws relating to the processing of those without papers who reach and or cross the border. These laws have been flaunted in the Zero Tolerance policy and the Trump Administration have had a torrid time as the Courts have ripped them apart for their transgressions, inter alia, demanding that they reunite the broken families. 

On 8/10/18 the Trump Administration deported a mother and daughter while their case for asylum was being heard. Federal Judge Emmet Sullivan, opined, “This is pretty outrageous that someone seeking justice in a U.S. Court is spirited away while her attorneys are seeking justice for her. This is not acceptable”. The Judge then ordered the plane they were on to turn around and threatened to hold the Attorney General Jeff Sessions in contempt of court should his order not be carried out. Sessions complied. The same morning papers were filed in Federal Court that the Court’s order to reunite all the children with their parents had been defied, hundreds of cases were still in abeyance. 

Trump takes on NFL players again - lying in his tweet

“The NFL players are at it again - taking a knee when they should be standing proudly by the National Anthem. Numerous players from different teams, wanted to show their “outrage” at something most of them are unable to define. They make a fortune doing what they love.” - the POTUS tweeted

There are two palpable lies in that tweet. The players have made it abundantly and repeatedly clear that they are not protesting the National Anthem but rather racial injustice. The second lie relates to the fact that the players are unable to define why they are taking a knee. They have spelt out the reasons which include the high number of African Americans that are incarcerated for minor crimes including five thousand children in adult facilities. The initial issue related to the deaths of unarmed blacks at the hands of the police. 

Trump will hammer this issue into the ground even though he has reportedly been asked to cease and desist by the owners who by and large are his supporters. It is a cultural issue that stirs up his base. To quote Le Bron James, “He is using sport to divide us”.

Anniversary of Charlottesville.

The right wing groups decision to “celebrate the anniversary” of their carnage at Charlottesville by holding a “Unite The Right” rally next to the WhiteHouse, resulted in the resurfacing of Trump’s remark following the death of one of those protesting against the racists and Neo Nazis that there was wrong on both sides of the divide, thereby sanctioning a moral equivalency between the racists and the counter protestors.

ALL IN A DAY’S WORK

 Trump himself was front and center of the Trumpy swampy news of 8/10/18 being the dinosaur in the swamp.

TRUMP, THE MIDTERMS AND THE FUTURE

The Trump backed Republican candidate’s showing in the Congressional special election in Ohio underlines the political trends that are sweeping the country at the moment. These include the facts that Trump still controls the base of an ever diminishing and changed Republican Party, that the latter are in for a thrashing in November and that the Democratic Party, (DP), need a viable alternative policy to capitalize on the anti Trump enthusiasm. It remains to be seen how the embattled Trump responds to the tightening and looming legal threat that threatens his very existence. He also has to face the inevitability of at least one Legislative Body being able to investigate him, his finances and even initiate impeachment.

OHIO, TRUMP AND THE GOP

Win loose or draw the 12th District Congressional special election in Ohio the ultimate result still represents at least an eleven point swing to the Democrats. (While the Republican is leading by sixteen hundred votes there are eight and a half thousand still to be counted). According to the prestigious Cook Political Report the Republicans have sixty - eight seats that are more vulnerable than the Ohio one. What is more with the growing DP momentum the Republicans cannot win this one in November. With at least seventy seats needing “ outside assistance” the GOP cannot throw the resources they threw into this fight into all of them. Ryan’s Leadership Fund PAC coughed up close on three million, the GOP National Committee just short of a million and opened two new offices in an effort to get out the vote. Another PAC dumped a late two hundred thousand as well. By contrast the DP spent less than a million on this race while their candidate outraised the opposition locally. 

So the GOP would need a ton of outside money to make their candidates competitive in the toss up races. This at a time when their largest supporting group, headed by the Koch brothers, have announced that their four hundred million is not going to support Republicans that back Trump’s trade and Immigration initiatives. 

Besides money there are two other major historical predictors of major midterm losses of the Governing Party - approval rating of the President and number of incumbents not standing for reelection. Trump’s approval rating at forty - one percent is far lower than Clinton’s and Obama’s were when they were both humiliated in midterms - the former being at forty - six and the latter at forty - five percent. Thirty - seven Republican members are not defending their seats - over double that of the DP. Incumbents are usually returned at least eighty five percent of the time and there is almost a linear relationship of the overall losses a party sustains with the number of their resignations. Thus these two parameters  bode adversely for the Republicans.

Trump’s impact was minimal if not negative in Ohio. Usually the President is very careful not to risk his imprimatur in a local race. Not that this POTUS cares, as he reinterprets whatever happens and what happened as a major triumph for him of historic proportions. The flight of suburban voters from the Republican Party, as illustrated by the outcome in the populous Franklin County, was once again a feature of this race. While the GOP contender won the rural counties by a large percentage the Republican turnout was way lower than in 2016. Looking at the Trump effect over all the Special Elections it has to be seen as a major negative.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY (DP)

The DP is gung ho. The number of candidates making themselves available for one office or another in the forthcoming midterms exceeds all records. Interestingly enough the Democrats have a large number of decorated servicemen as candidates, including women who are in the forefront of this increase in prospective office bearers. There  are an astonishing number of women who have won primaries and now represent forty percent of the DP candidates for the House of Representatives. There are already eight female DP candidates for Governorship with sixteen Primaries still to be decided. 

This explosion has not occurred in a vacuum, the misogynistic Trump has radicalized them from day one where his inauguration was followed by The Women’s March. The latter turned into a national and international protest largely directed against the President. Over four hundred marches took place in the USA “to send the administration a message on their first day”. Most significantly the organization has remained in place and has  continued agitating. Women have been angered as the Presidency blundered on and most recently Trump’s splitting up of families has had to be the last straw. Already there has been mobilization against the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

The Indivisible Movement has formed hundreds of grass roots movements since Day One and the widely followed “Resistance Calendar” keeps everyone up to date with protest and organizational events. Other activist groups such as the student gun control movement, “Right to Life”, have vowed to remove Congress members  who won’t  limit the National Rifle Association agenda. Then Trump’s bigotry against African Americans, Hispanics and Muslims have galvanized them to halt this prejudice. 

All this has translated into the spectacular special election results to date. However the opposition mantra has not been focussed on Trump. Nor have the DP unlike their opponents  nationalized the special elections. All candidates have concentrated on policy offerings including local priorities. However they need to move this policy approach into a coherent consistent national platform. 

There has been very little factional fighting in the Primaries and the National Chairman Tom Perez has claimed that in all instances the Primary contenders have rallied behind the victor. Bernie Sanders has been extraordinarily restrained. The kindest critique of his performance in the Democratic Primaries was delivered by the New York Times who commented that he was winning converts but not Primaries.

THE FUTURE FOR THE DEMOCRATS

Assuming that the Democrats win the House their principle objective must be to launch a policy initiative that is rational on tax, health care, immigration, job creation and training, education, the national debt, student loans and infrastructure. Nothing will be gained by grandstanding issues like the outright banning of ICE. The electorate's memory is short and the DP have to act like an alternate government who need a DP President at the helm. If Trump survives he will still be the "Republican" nominee in 2020. Then anything might happen again especially if the Democrats have given a chaotic performance in the interim.

Then as much as Nancy Pelosi, leader of the Minority House Democratic Party, has done she is regarded as “The Establishment”. To recap - a principle reason for Trump’s win in the Midwest was the switch of a significant number of frustrated Obama voters to Trump. They were sick and tired of the self serving elected politicians. Unhappily and unfairly Pelosi has become the poster child of this type of lawmaker. So much so that a big Republican issue in the special elections has been whether the opposing Democrat would support Pelosi as leader.  

As matters stand Trump has too much support to move to impeach him. What the Dems should do is legislate to protect Mueller’s investigation. The ensuing debate will help educate the electorate. Impeachment should only be undertaken with a buyin from the Republicans and that will only happen when his approval rating starts hitting the thirties. 

In short the DP, as the only adults in the room, have a massive historic responsibility to right the ship.

THE FUTURE FOR THE REPUBLICANS 

The Republican Party of conservative values, free trade, fiscal responsibility, ties with international allies, civil liberties, separation of powers, commitment to the rule of law and freedom of the press, is dead. Perhaps arising from the ashes something close to it may eventually emerge. But for now The Party continues as the cult of Donald J. Trump - all this to the shame of its legislative leaders, in particular Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and Reince Priebus. 

Having said this what are the prospects of this sad vestige made up of a ragbag of constituencies? The latter being denying members of the Grand Old Party, right wing extremists, hypocritical evangelicals, cynical citizens who are profiting from Trump’s irresponsible financial and environmental policies and the disillusioned blue collar workers and out of work miners who have been shafted and neglected by politicians.

What the Trump Cult Party does have is the old GOP apparatus, infrastructure, organization and finances. There are still some of the backers and Political Action Committees that are bank rolling Trump Cult candidates in the hope that this is all a nightmare and if a Republican majority is once again elected the world would wake up to good old fiscal discipline and compassionate conservatism. Ryan to add to his infamy has collected a relatively large sum of money to allow the show literally to go on. 

McConnell has put on his blinkers and has perverted the whole Senate process in order to elect Supreme Court Judges who would assist in keeping America in the nineteenth century. He has lately focussed all his efforts on electing a Judge who is on the fringes of society, who does not believe in the women’s right to choose and believes that the President has powers similar to the divine rights of kings. This McConnell is doing while Washington is burning.

Ideally the GOP legislators whether they be in the majority or minority should start acting responsibly putting a curb on Trump who doesn’t represent the same Party that they do, protect the investigation into the assault on this country’s democracy, hold the President if necessary responsible for high crimes and misdemeanors and finally, assist the Democrats in passing legislation on immigration, infrastructure, jobs and the like. Only them could they see a rebirth of a party with the values they purport to represent.

THE DANGER OF BLOODSHED 

Eugene Robinson, that laid back commentator of the Washington Post, has written that words have meaning and Trump’s unhinged rhetoric is going to lead to someone being killed. It is on the record too that the POTUS, at his rallies, has sanctioned violence. In his campaign rallies when he believed, like everyone else, that he would lose he spoke only of “rigged elections”. He also ambiguously opined that, “the second amendment people” could act.

The President and his entourage are in grave legal jeopardy. He believes he is the State. Furthermore he believes he is entitled to do whatever it takes to protect the State. So Speaker Ryan maybe you better do a bit more than collect money for the non existent GOP and Senate leader McConnell the fact that you were busy electing a Neanderthal Judge, if it all hits the fan, will be no excuse in the High Court of History.  

TRUMP AND GIULIANI RAGE AS THE WHEELS COME OFF

Trump and Giuliani, who plays his lawyer on TV, have ratcheted up their attacks on Mueller, his investigation and Jeff Sessions who has been all but instructed to halt the investigation. 

Trump has vacillated on his attitude towards the probe depending on whether he believed it would do him more harm to stop it than whatever it might turn up. His vicious tweets against Mueller and his team as well as Sessions makes it pretty clear that what he currently fears most, namely that Mueller has the goods on him. 

This perception has been brought about by a number of factors and has resulted in a ramping up of the rhetoric to what Trump has constantly labelled as a “hoax” and a “Witch Hunt”. The latter being labelled a conspiracy that was hatched up between Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party on the one hand and the Dark State as represented by the FBI on the other. Their alleged motivation was to illegitimize his election which they “should have won” and to claim that he “colluded” with the Russians.

WHAT CAUSED TRUMP TO GO ON OFFENSE

While Trump changes his position at the drop of a hat this latest orchestrated effort by Giuliani and him seems to have a permanence about it and it is not difficult to sass out the precipitating factors. First, there is the all out war with his former “fixer” Cohen and the obvious damage he can cause. Then there is the Manafort trial, which he apparently is watching minute by minute. The detail that Mueller has on his former campaign manager’s finances and dealings with the Russian backed Ukrainians has to strike fear in Trump's heart. 

Then there is obviously a knowledge of what Mueller may have as there have been negotiations on what Mueller’s questioning might cover. It is becoming more apparent that there has been “collusion” and Mueller’s subpoena of the intermediary who set up the Trump Tower meeting is indicative of the investigation closing in. Added to that is the fact that nobody is taking notice of his banal denying the culpability of the Russian intervention in the 2016 election as the Intelligence and Security Chiefs proclaim that the Russians are at it again. 

The influential Koch brothers took Trump on as well as vowing not to support the Republicans that back him on trade and immigration issues. All this coupled with the growing reality that the Republicans may well lose at least the House raises the specter of impeachment and that more than anything has injected a sense of urgency in getting closure on the “Russia Thing”.

LEST WE FORGET - THE TRUMP TOWER MEETING OF JUNE 13 WITH THE RUSSIANS

Jay H. Ell believes that the meeting arranged between Donald Trump Jnr. more than anything else is on Trump’s mind. Besides Mueller’s moves there is his fixer Cohen’s allegation that Trump knew of the meeting and sanctioned it. It is salutary to reflect on the content of the invitation e mail that Donald Trump Jnr. received from Rob Goldstone for that meeting:

“Emin just called and asked me to contact you with something interesting.

The Crown Prosecutor of Russia met with his father Aras this morning and in their meeting offered to provide the Trump Campaign with some official documents and information that would incriminate Hillary with her dealings with Russia and would be very useful to your father.

This is obviously very sensitive and high level information but it is part of the Russia and its Government’s support for Mr. Trump - helped a lot by Aras and Emin.

What do you think is the best way to handle this information and would you be able to speak to Emin about it directly?

I can also send this information to your father via Rhona, but it is ultra sensitive so wanted to send it you first.

The rest is history. But add to that - Steve Bannon told Michael Wolff that there is no way the son would have not told the father about it. Add to that Cohen, Mueller subpoenaing “Emil” and the fact that Trump Jnr. under oath denied that he discussed this with his father. Then Trump has admitted that he prepared the cover up press release of the meeting and that he originally lied that he hadn’t....

THE TRUMP CAMP RESPONSE TO THE WORSENING SITUATION

So it is all systems go on defense. Mueller and his alleged “Democratic henchman” were mercilessly attacked. Notice was served to Attorney General Sessions to halt the investigation immediately. Manafort who even though he “hardly served” in his campaign was elevated to victimhood, Trump claiming that Al Capone had been treated better. 

Trump is supposedly in a war with his legal team as to whether to be interviewed by Mueller or not. The POTUS supposedly is dead keen and his team terrified. (Jay H. Ell believes Mueller doesn’t really give a hoot as he has all the goods he needs but he doesn’t want to lay himself open to the accusation that he never gave Trump, who for practical purposes is a target, an opportunity to respond).

The central defense narrative has changed dramatically. After repeating, at every possible opportunity, the mantra, “no collusion”, the argument has become even if there was "collusion" the latter isn’t a crime. After supporting Cohen and condemning the “storm trooper attack” on him, the story gradually changed. The “fixer” was no longer an honest broker but a pathological liar. Unintelligible explanations followed as to what the public assumed was what Cohen had on tape in an effort to get ahead and counter the “bad news”. There were explanations of meetings that Giuliani then claimed hadn’t happened mixed in with outright denials that Trump had prior knowledge of the meeting his son convened with the Russians to get dirt on Hillary. 

TRUMP AND HIS SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE HEADS OPENLY DISAGREE ON RUSSIA

One interesting move was the sudden appearance of the Security and Intelligence Chiefs at a White House press conference that acknowledged Russian interference in 2016 and that the Russians were on the job in 2018. They made it quite clear that the Russians were and are a clear and existential danger. They were a threat to America’s democracy. 

This effort did not convince anyone that Trump has bought into the obvious. The Intelligence Chief Dan Coates still doesn’t know what happened in the Trump/Putin meeting in Helsinki. Nor was their any explanation from the FBI Director Christopher Wray as to why Trump kept claiming that FBI was corrupt. None of the top brass could answer as to why they were all thrown under the bus at Helsinki and in favor of Putin. 

Trump a few hours later at his Nuremberg style rally openly contradicted those who are responsible for the safety of this country and protecting its democracy. It is getting close to open warfare.

IT’S ALL ABOUT THE BASE - STUPID

At the end of day the new offensive is aimed principally at Trump’s unquestioning adoring base. In Trump’s mind they and they alone were responsible for his “great victory”. He reckons that if he could keep them motivated and exited and get them screaming to the polls all will be well. As Giuliani has confided Mueller will come out with his version and then he, Giuliani, would come out with his and he would be believed. Trump has started on a massive campaign circuit with three rallies in less than a week. Ostensibly they are to support the Republican candidates but as always they are about him. The old bogeymen are paraded and the favorite pariah, “the media” is given the full treatment. They have been labelled as “the enemy of the people”. 

Giuliani has made it clear that they are going to win in the court of public opinion. This tactic has plenty of logic and merit to it. To successfully impeach Trump you going to need some of the forty percent his base to go along. That base may not be enough to win elections but is enough to keep Trump as Republican nominee and to ensure that the GOP is now his party. The GOP legislators collude in the hope that the party still stands for all those good conservative values. Hence they are ambivalent about distancing themselves from him. 

A far right group entitled QAnon has become a feature of Trump rallies. They are conspiracy theorists second to none. Trump acknowledges them by stating the number 17 which  number the letter Q is in the alphabet. Trump has shown that he embraces anyone that backs him. He was even supportive of the right wing anti semitic fringe in Charlottesville so his acceptance of this scary group that threatens violence is not entirely unexpected. However it is a sign of desperation to be associated with this crowd. 

He is generally against the  sentiment of the GOP establishment. This especially so when the response to the Koch Brothers is to tell them to go to hell just because they disagree with the POTUS on a few issues. The latter have $400 million that are going to dish out for the midterms.

Trump has failed to learn the lesson of the special elections where the base has hung in but he has lost the additional twenty percent of independents and others that put him over the top in 2016. There have been fifty GOP losses in State and National elections. All the omens point to a devastating 2018 mid terms. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Trump and Giuliani’s response to the worsening situation is not likely to be able to withstand a devastating report from Mueller. What happens in the Manafort trial is very important because if he is convicted the elephant in the room is that the POTUS’S campaign manager, had extensive connections with Putin’s oligarchs. 

Whether Trump is impeached or not really depends on whether Republicans, be they in the majority or not, go along with it. That will depend on the strength of Mueller’s evidence. There is a group that is gaining ground “Republicans For The Rule of Law” who are already punting that there are enough grounds for impeachment.

 One fact for sure is that Giuliani and Trump’s new aggressive initiative is not impressing the GOP legislators and many are saying so. Also if he axes the probe that just might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.