COMEY FIRED BY THE APPRENTICE PRESIDENT

The country is facing a historical moment as an investigation into Russian interference into the American democratic process has been allegedly obstructed by the President of the United States. If this is in fact so it is obstruction of justice, an impeachable offense.

All this is taking place in Donald Trump’s Presidency which is a thrill a minute. There is never enough time to fully analyze a Trump catastrophe as he rapidly catapults into the next one. So while everyone was digesting the stunning impact that, fired, Acting Attorney General Sally Yates had on revealing the incompetence of his Presidency, he fired FBI Director Comey thereby evincing even greater gasps of shock from a hardened body politic. The latter had been convinced, prior to that, there was nothing that el Presidente could ever do to surprise them again. Hopefully they have finally learned never to underestimate the ‘greatest President ever’s’ ability to outdo his latest outrageous act. 

It is salutary to reflect the subject matter of Counsellor Yates’s testimony - Trump’s incomprehensible delay at firing his Security Advisor General Flynn who had been found to have fraternized with the Russians. To add insult to injury Obama had warned him, months before, not to hire Flynn in the first place. But this was all hastily put down, by the Trump echo chamber. They spun that as Obama had ‘a thing’ about Flynn and couldn’t get on with him, he fired him. Simultaneously they argued that it was Obama that issued Flynn with a security clearance to be Trump’s chief security advisor! Yates of course was a Clinton partisan so what could you expect from her was the explicit argument on her damning evidence to the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing. 

TRUMP’S HILLARY EXPLANATION JUST DOESN’T CUT IT

It is difficult to comprehend the President’s political assessment of his axing of Comey, who was in the midst of investigating his campaign’s relationship with Russia. Trump claimed that the reason for his decision was Comey’s unfair treatment of Hillary. Trump believed he convinced everyone that it had nothing to do with his own possible collusion with the Russians as, in his letter of termination to Comey, he thanked the former Director for telling him no less than three times that he, The Donald, was not a target of an investigation. One can only assume that Comey had to do it thrice as The Donald needed constant reassurance. One can also be reassured that Comey who might be testifying again will, for sure, back off from his previous non committal stance on this subject. The President has to be more than mildly angered that Comey again and again refused to back him up on his still standing claim that Barack Obama wire tapped Trump Towers. Also Trump and company wanted Comey to focus on the leaks that have given this whole story legs rather than the Russian attack on the Presidential election. 

IT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSSIA -  IT WAS BECAUSE OF HILLARY

The fact that since the word go, in spite of mounting evidence and general acceptance that the Russians were involved in subverting American Democracy, Trump has claimed, to this day, that it could have been the Chinese or some 400 pound man sitting on a bed that did the hacking. It is all Fake News! Now Comey was heading up the team that had concluded that it was the Russians in an investigation that Trump claimed was a waste of tax payer money and a massive “hoax”. 

Not only did this have nothing to do with Russia, Trump claimed, it had everything to do with defending ‘crooked, lock her up Hillary’ whom Comey had done the dirt. Trump didn’t have to explain why he had previously congratulated the FBI Director for impugning Clinton’s character on her e mails and then for his courage for re opening his investigation into her e mails a few days before the election. 

Everyone had to know that the electioneering comments were just politics. Trump was now no longer candidate Trump but had the gravitas of being President Trump, who had a responsibility to act on Comey’s “atrocities”. He did not believe that anyone would give a hoot about that self opinionated pompous ass Comey. The Democrats were just a bunch of hypocrites as they had been whining a few days before that Comey had given Trump the Presidency. Any rate he was only acting on the recommendation of his Attorney General, Jeff Sessons, who unrecused himself, especially, for this important task. He, the President, had acted within his lawful powers and even Vladimir Putin had agreed. The Russian Premier told CBS news in Moscow that Trump, “was acting according to his competence, in accordance with his law”. Putin confirmed that, “We had nothing to do with it”. Putin had been backed up earlier in the day by his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who just happened to be visiting Trump that day. When a reporter asked whether Comey was axed because of the Russian connection, Lavrov answered, “Are you are kidding?” He was accompanied by Russian Ambassador Kislyak who is central in the investigation as the contact man for the Trump campaign.

Did Trump not give a thought of the optics of meeting two Russian operatives who were allegedly directly involved in the attack of the integrity of the American way of life, the day after he had fired the investigator of the Russian interference? 

 BANANA REPUBLIC LA LA LAND

There are three things that The Donald does not seem to get as he orbits in his own la la land. (He really has not changed his world view that he can get away with anything whether it be shooting some - one on Fifth Avenue or grabbing any dolly's pussy.) The firing in of itself is not congruent with “Making America Great Again”. It is in line with the behavior of the banana Republics, “South of the Border”. You just don’t fire the police just because they are investigating crimes that you might be involved in. Of course there is a lot else he does that is in sync with those totalitarian entities - making money from your political position, appointing family in top political positions and letting them make money too, just for starters. 

FIRING COMEY WON’T MAKE IT GO AWAY

Then there is the belief that this will all go away because he has fired the top cop. On the contrary he has upped the anti. Even the Conservative media have had a field day. Charles Krauthammer on the Fox News Channel had the following to add to the mix -“If this was so offensive to the Trump Administration , you would have spoken to Comey in the transition and said ‘we are going to let you go’. That’s when a president can easily make a decision to have a change. That is not unprecedented. But to fire him summarily without warning, in the middle of May about something that happened in July is almost inexplicable”. As the Fox News Half Time Report summed it up - “Trump picks a bad time for a melt down”. 

The legislators have upped their call for an independent prosecutor or an independent enquiry. Seven of the Republican Senators have joined in, in one way or another. Even in the House of Representatives, a member of the Freedom Caucus, Justin Amash, has called for an Independent Investigation. Whatever Comey has dug up is still there. He will spill the beans in the classified briefings. Also the fact that just prior to his axing the reasons as to why he asked for more money for his investigation will be canvassed. The new nominee for FBI Chief will be vetted with a vengeance. There will be more and more leaks to the Press as to what is going on. The sub committees will subpoena The Donald’s taxes. As John Dean, who blew the whistle on Watergate opined it won’t go away. 

DON’T FORGET HE HAS TO DELIVER TO THE BASE

Now The Donald has got to get his agenda going. Most importantly he has to get a Health Policy across even though he doesn’t give a hoot what that policy ultimately is. Then there is his tax policy. He maintained in his State of the Union address that he was going to send to Congress a trillion dollar infrastructure bill that would produce millions of jobs. Even his ever loving base is going to want to see results sooner or later. 

The Republican leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, whose wife is a member of Trump’s cabinet, made a sporting attempt to justify the Administration decision and attempted to get on with the business of governing. The Democrats have threatened to go slow and all they have to do is to follow McConnell’s playbook. McConnell must know how easy it is to go slow on legislation. His whole mantra in the Obama years was to allow nothing that Obama suggested to see the light of day. 

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

This story is moving rapidly. The Washington Post, with 30 sources, maintained that Trump grew furious with Comey as his investigation concentrated on the Russian attack on American democracy rather than on the leaks to the Press. Trump’s business dealings have also been brought into focus by investigators. The New York Times are reporting that Comey had confided to an associate that, “Trump was outside the realm of normal and even crazy”. The Wall Street Journal maintains that the Russian investigation had been ramped up by Comey. Instead of weekly briefings there were daily briefings. The Washington Post has just released a report that the newly appointed Deputy Attorney General has threatened to resign because his concerns about Comey’s handling of the Clinton e mail investigation was made the basis of the firing of Director Comey.

There have to be more leaks coming as the Trump administration unravels. 

The Senate Intelligence Committee are subpoenaing Michael Flynn’s documents relevant to the investigation. The last time similar subpoenas were issued was in the 9/11 investigation. Flynn will in all probability refuse pleading the fifth amendment not to incriminate himself.

It has to be obvious that the Russian issue will not go away. As James Clapper, the former Director of the National Intelligence Agency, testified at the end of the devastating Senate Intelligence hearing, the Senators need to focus on the fact that the country and every value it stands for was and is under attack from the Russians.

Trump will have to appoint an FBI Director who will have to pass incredible scrutiny. Ironically Trump would have been better off with Comey. The latter was compromised and far easier to smear than who ever is subsequently appointed.

This whole episode has hardly improved the 2018 Republican electoral position. It is highly unlikely that impeachment proceedings would be instituted with a Republican House so Trump’s ultimate fate is dependent on the outcome of the 2018 elections.. 

The  Russian affair together with Health Care is now the subject of Republican Town Hall meetings of those Congressmen who have the guts to hold them.

All this means that Trump is in deep trouble and it is reported that he has appointed legal representatives. But there is a long way to go. At the end of the day Trump has fired the FBI Director who was investigating his campaign. That could represent obstruction of justice which was the principle reason for the Nixon impeachment. 

IS OBAMACARE DEAD?

The recent narrow House of Representatives Republican victory to repeal and replace Obamacare means much more than just that. There are tsunami political implications that will reverberate with what is on its face is a loss of healthcare for at least twenty- four million Americans and a refusal to pay Planned Parenthood for their services for two and a half million women. Most significantly is the threat of either denial or massive increase of premiums for up to thirty percent of Americans, with pre existing health problems, as well as citizens between fifty and sixty - four years old. This is all coupled with the threat that the legislation would result in the closure of droves of Rural Hospitals that would be deprived of the fees that the newly insured were providing. The immediate beneficiaries are the wealthiest two percent who receive a three hundred billion dollar tax reduction - that being the additional tax they have been paying to cover the costs of Obamacare these past eight years. 

REPUBLICANS WENT AHEAD WITH REPEAL REGARDLESS OF CONSEQUENCES

When one reflects on the overwhelming protests to the introduction of the repeal and replace of the Affordable Care Act, (ACA) with the Affordable Health Care Act, (ACHA)  bracketed with the fact that every possible professional and service organization protested the change it boggles the mind that the GOP went ahead like lemmings marching to the sea. There had to be compelling reasons why the Republican leadership rushed into this legislation, especially when the influential American Association of Retired Persons that represents over thirty - eight million paid up members and the American Medical Association with every other medical professional body publicly opposed it, These organizations were supported by the American Hospital Association, The American Cancer Association with all other bodies that represent a disease interest together with all those institutions that raise money for the ill and disabled such as “March for Dimes” all campaigned against this legislation .

It is little wonder that several cynical Democrats were hoping that the House Republicans would do what they did. They hobbled together a Bill with amendments that could win over all factions of the Party, regardless of the fact that it rendered the AHCA unworkable. All this in their obsession to pass a Repeal and Repeal Obamamcare Act which they have been attempting to effect for seven years They deliberately did not wait for an evaluation of their effort from the non partisan Congressional Budget Office that had evaluated that the first more moderate GOP legislative attempt reporting that it would result in twenty four million people losing healthcare and would “save” $337 billion.

PERCEPTION IS REALITY SO WATCH OUT TRUMP

From the word go Obamacare was attacked by the Republicans as fatally flawed care while pushing up the costs. The annual increase in everyone’s insurance premiums, which coincided with the rolling out of the ACA was argued to support the seven year old Republican narrative that Obamacare was a ‘disaster’. This mantra became a ritual as the Republican controlled House of Representatives repealed the ACA sixty times in the full knowledge that their then vote could not become law. In addition like all major revolutionary changes there was plenty that was not working with ACA. In certain States, insurers, especially where the populations were sparse, did not find it cost effective to continue. Providers too were reluctant, in some instances, to treat so many additional low paying patients. 

To up the anti on the repeal and replace process, the President made it a cornerstone of his campaign. However what he defined as what needed to be done is not remotely close to what the AHCA does. The Donald campaigned that he would not touch Medicare and Medicaid nor the ACA provision that enforced insurance companies to insure those with previous illnesses at no extra cost. The new Act does the opposite. The Donald promised that he would provide better health care for all Americans for less cost. Like in so many other spheres Trump was operating in his alternate reality. The problem for the GOP is that The Donald’s base voted for the Trump’s election manifesto, an interpretation that he is still sticking too. So in the aftermath of the electoral promises the Republicans and Trump, if they were to have any credibility, had to go ahead as quickly as possible, with the AHCA, regardless of the fact that it only had a seventeen percent approval rating.

Not only do the GOP legislators have to live with what is in this act so does Trump. As the Democratic leader in the House, Nancy Pelosi, gleefully announced the Republicans that voted for it have their vote tattooed on their foreheads. The verdict on the two celebrations following the passage of the AHCA is still out. The Democrats singing Goodbye to the Republicans and Trump and the Republicans celebrating at the WhiteHouse on a piece of legislation that has a long long way to go before it becomes law.

OTHER MOTIVATIONS FOR THE AHCA

There were philosophical reasons to axe Obamacare as well. The GOP chief ideologue, House Speaker, Paul Ryan believes in small government and market forces. He does not agree that it is the Government’s responsibility to provide health care for all. Others, even more rigid, outright state that Healthcare is not a right and if you cannot afford it that is just too bad. This archaic Republican position if fully articulated would be very unpopular with the electorate. 

Some commentators are convinced that the AHCA was essential in order to effect tax reform. The nearly four hundred billion tax dollars saved from the ACA would be needed for tax deductions proposed in Trump’s tax reform plan. Some pundits argue that this was the greatest motivation for the AHCA and maintain that without it tax reform would be dead in the water. There is little doubt that the Democrats are going to run on “You lost your health care for a tax break for the rich”.

There are the purely internal political motivations for this vote. The moderate Republicans that have everything to lose were persuaded by the following logic - while the strongest GOP support for the AHCA is from the far right they are the majority of the few voters that pitch up for the Republican Primaries and are most effective at getting their people the nomination. Necessity being the mother of invention these moderates were persuaded that if they were ousted in the Primaries whether or not they would lose they seats in the midterms was irrelevant as they wouldn’t be around to contest them. 

Other political objectives were achieved in the leadership sphere. For better or for worse Trump is ensconced as the Republican leader as he became intimately involved directly and indirectly in the arm twisting to sneak this bill through. Mike Pence virtually took up residence in the House to get the guys “To take one for team Trump”. It didn’t seem to matter that the concessions needed to land the right wing Freedom Party and the eight billion dollar sop to the moderates wouldn’t jive in the real world. The Trump team and Ryan cobbled together this boondoggle as only the end result mattered. Ryan finally put his stamp on his leadership of the House but how long this will all hang together will be put to the test again and again and more specifically if and when Trumpcare returns from the Senate.

THE OUTCOMES 

There is little doubt that the short term victory is Ryan and Trump’s. The problem is that the Act is interpreted differently by the two. Trump is not remotely interested in ideology and will do and say whatever he feels he needs to. In fact he will declare victory regardless of the outcome. 

The bottomline is that there is no way that the bill can be interpreted as fulfilling Trump’s election promises and this will be played out in the midterm 2018 elections. As Pelosi has stated the GOP members have their votes tattooed on their foreheads and this may well result in the Dems retaking the House. The Trump electorate voted for a health care act as enunciated by him and far more in line with the Democratic vision. 

Republican Opposition

The GOP Senate, which has only a tiny Republican majority has served notice that they are starting de novo on Health Care. It is certain that there is no way that whatever emerges from the upper house would pass in the House of Representatives without Democratic support. That leaves two alternatives either Obamacare remains as is or Trumpcare will represent Obamacare “fixed up”. Republican Senators Cassidy and Collins have already drafted legislation that they maintain passes the “Jimmy Kimmel test”. The latter refers to a late night comic whose new born son was treated with a live saving operation. An emotive Kimmel argued that it should be apolitical that money should not dictate whether or not one’s son should live. He emoted further that if legislation allowed insurance companies to exclude patients with preexisting conditions his son could never be eligible. The video went viral receiving over ten million hits within a few days. Collins has stated in, so many words that she wants to plug the holes in Obamacare and provide care for the still twenty - eight million Americans not covered.

The tip of the iceberg of the GOP that has thus far defected, 20 in the House of Representatives and at least 7 Governors, led by Governor Kasich, face a real boost in the Senate where, as yet, not one Republican Senator has come out in support of the House Resolution. 

Health Act Can Spillover Into Battle for Control of GOP

All this could put into play the long put off battle for the heart and soul of the GOP between the Freedom Party - the former Tea party, and the moderates and what is left of the Bush passionate conservatism. The “middle of the road” pure ideological Ryanism cannot take hold in a society where even the Republicans, as Trump cottoned onto, want their Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. They also want their Obamacare. This “socialism” doesn’t fit into Ryan’s fiscal conservatism and decentralized government. It is off the charts for the Freedom Party.

So the biggest beneficiaries of this battle will in all probability be the Democrats and maybe, just maybe, the whole healthcare system itself will get a total overhaul. A system that does not treat all Americans and costs nearly double of those countries that do, needs to go. As Trump argues Australia’s health care system with their single payor administration, is much better. The only problem is that he says anything and it invariably means nothing.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

 For the foreseeable future Obamacare is alive and well and living in the USA.  If Russiagate could be Trump’s nemesis Ryan’s obsession with Obamacare may be his.

THE TRUMP PROBLEM - WHAT IS THE ANSWER?

“How do you solve the problem of The Donald”, to hum along with Julie Andrews as she also faced a seemingly unsolvable situation in the Austrian Hills in the musical, “The Sound of Music”. The fact that the Oval office is occupied by an individual whose word and promises mean absolutely nothing, who has been found to be a chronic pathological serial liar, whose loose tongue threatens a nuclear war, whose personal fortune is increased every second by the fact that he is President, whose election was illegally assisted by a foreign power with whom members of his administration and campaign had contact with, who refuses to disclose the information that would allow examination as to whether the Trump Presidency is a front forTrump Inc. and that his half filled administration is incompetent, has not meaningfully impacted the support that magically got him elected. 

So how do you oppose him?

AMERICANS LET TRUMP HAPPEN

While it is self evident that his victory was facilitated by just a small number of Americans who switched in key States it was also accompanied by wholesale disinterest by nearly half the electorate. All this begs the question as to what is being done by the Democratic Opposition to prevent a recurrence of another minority victory by The Donald or the likes of him. While the reasons are many and complex as to why Trump emerged triumphant one factor stands out above the rest- the electorate were totally and utterly disillusioned by self serving politicians and “politics as usual”. The fact that Trump daily perpetrates at least one action that would herald the end of the career of any conventional politician is irrelevant. Poor old Anthony Weiner who had even been mentioned as a possible Presidential candidate had his career terminated because he texted sexual stuff to a few apparently consenting females. Contrast that with the multiple actual complaints The Donald has had of sexual harassment not to mention that he is a self confessed “pussy grabber”. Then there was the tragic case of Mitt Romney who couldn’t get past first base because he wouldn’t produce his tax returns. Compare that with the daily revelations of The Donald’s local and international malfeasance let alone his point blank refusal to produce his returns. 

To illustrate that nepotism and illegal gain of the Presidency is alive and well around the 100 day mark and is regarded as business as usual, the Duterte affair tells it all. The President, out of the blue, invited the President of Philippines, an unashamed brutal murderer, to the White House. Simultaneously there was a report that a billboard in Manila featured Ivanka Trump, Trump’s daughter and a Special Assistant to the President, who was advertising the new Trump Tower Manila. The media let alone Congress has not as much featured this blatant abuse of power. 

So judging Trump by normal standards just doesn’t cut it. Even the media seem to have given up the ghost on the Trump m. o. as the above example suggests. He is given a pass on everything because he is “not like the crooked politicians in Washington”.

“CROOKED INCOMPETENT” TRUMP’S BEHAVIOR IS NOT ENOUGH TO LOSE HIS ELECTORATE’S TRUST

The penny should have dropped by now that Trump still represents a preferable alternative to the “Washington swamp” of both parties to at least three groups - a group of disillusioned Democrats, Republicans that held their noses and pulled the levers and those citizens that didn’t think it important enough to vote against him. His first hundred days if anything have proved the fact of his unconditional support from his base.  So what if anything are the Dems doing about it besides rubbing their hands with glee at every inane Tweet and pathetic stumble that The Donald provides with monotonously regularity? The answer is - not much! Trump believes, as he did in the campaign, that his coalition is enough to get him re elected. Those who believe that lightning won’t strike twice just better have a plan B in case it does. 

So let us look at a snapshot of where the politics were at this hundred day mark.

POLITICAL ACTIVITIES ON THE 100 DAY WEEKEND

A number of events took place around  the historical landmark of Trump’s 100th day in office which serve to illustrate where American politics are at:

* Yet another mass protest hit the streets protesting Trump. This one was on Trump’s denial of climate change. Tens of thousands of American took to the streets. According to Michael Moore the level of civil uprising against ‘Trumpism’ far exceeds even that of the sixties where Vietnam was a central issue. (Blog: “Protest Trump’s America”). This country widespread mutiny shows no signs of abating and the momentum seems to be growing. The traditional May Day protests were morphed into massive anti Trump demonstrations. However, all this has to be translated into regime change otherwise it serves only as a frustration release. 

• Al Sharpton’s National Action Network Committee saw the largest gathering of African American leaders in a long while. The impressive list of participants included several members of the Obama administration including former Attorney General Eric Holder. Bearing in mind that there is more than a whisper that the African American constituency were not out in force in the Hillary campaign this renewed commitment may be significant now that the stakes have been laid bare and African American voting rights are on the chopping block.

• The annual WhiteHouse Correspondents’ Dinner was held. This annual jamboree reflects to a lesser or greater degree the tension between the Administration and the predominantly liberal media. It also showcases the level of satire directed at the incumbent President. Never before have the cadre of late night comedians been so unashamedly and blatantly anti a President. These performers, particularly as a group, have the largest and most important demographic of youth following them. The fact that the network satirists have the complete go ahead to give Trump a full go is indicative of the fact that the business people don’t believe that this blatant partisanship is impacting their advertising revenue. Conspicuously absent from the Correspondents’ fest was the President himself. Trump not being there is like a production of Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark. There can be no greater affirmation in the non appearance of The Donald that he does not give two hoots about expanding his constituency. They can all go to hell.

* To reinforce the Trump isolationism and his belief that all that matters is his base, he held a rally in rural Pennsylvania, a key state in his electoral victory. This instead of attending the Correspondents’ black tie dinner which he ridiculed to his adoring following. He was into his campaign mode, where he is most comfortable, promising the world with not a care or a clue as to how he is going to deliver. This self indulgent orgy followed the previous day’s comforting address to the National Rifle Association where he reassured the faithful that their democratic right to have as many guns as they liked, whether they be AK- 47s or not, would be defended till kingdom come. So if there is any doubt that Trump was about to become the President of all Americans he, once again, dispelled it this weekend with a one two punch. Notwithstanding the disaster of his first 100 days he declared victory to the cheering faithful, reaffirming that, at this stage of the game, he still wasn't to going to allow reality to interfere with his world view.

* At the political business end of the weekend is the pending Georgia House of Representatives bye election where feverish electioneering is taking place. The outcome of this contest is already being considered a bellwether of whether buyer’s remorse has begun to set in in the Trump Presidency. The Republican in 2016 won the district by thirty points but Trump only won the constituency by six percent. A fortune is being spent in this election and according to pundits the Democrat has a fifty percent chance of winning. Regardless of the outcome this contest is being fought, principally, as a referendum on Trump and not on the basis on an alternative vision for America. The real fight is going to be in 2018 in a national wide contest. Hopefully the battle lines will be carefully drawn between the alternatives that America faces. 

SO WHAT IS THE ANSWER?

Regardless of the fact that by every parameter and every form of measurement the Trump Presidency is a disaster The Donald soldiers on declaring victory all the while to his cheering base.

While there is objective evidence that Trump has lost a small section of his base for all in tense and purposes the faithful are still faithful. Trump for his part is not adjusting his strategy to extend his constituency believing that he is dealing with a rerun of previous polls that got it wrong. After all look who is President.

The Democrats for a host of reasons should not sit back in the belief that Trump has to implode and then his base will desert him. To date the Trump faithful don’t seem to care that he has sold them a bill of goods. The crisp point is that even though he and his administration are worse than the swamp that they supposedly replaced, his base still supports him because he is so different from the smooth self serving operatives in DC. 

The Democrats need to translate the mass uprising against the Trump phenomenon by mobilizing the protestors into political action. They need to do this by unambiguously promoting their policies and running on them as opposed to running on Trump as a joke - been there done that and it failed. In addition they need to address the fears and anger that produced the Trump switch. They need to reassure the electorate that they are really going to drain the swamp because, as The Donald, has convinced them, the Democrats are part of the malaise that has so dominated decision making in Washington for decades. It is indeed big business and their lobbyists that are the major constituency of the legislators on both sides of the aisle. 

Jay H. Ell has indicated again and again that Trump is in a quicksand created by his campaign’s involvement with Russia. If the criminal investigation shows there was collusion with the Russians there will be a clamor for impeachment. Realistically this could not happen if Trump still has the forty percent of the electorate he has at the moment. There has to be a groundswell against him.Clearly his supporters currently believe that whatever people may allege it is fake at best and at worst he is still better than anything else that Washington has had to offer these past fifty years. 

ELECTORATE’S PERCEPTION TOWARDS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

 Jay H. Ell believes Nate Silver’s assessment, reinforced by Hillary Clinton, that Russia’s targeted interference, hacking and Comey’s inexplicable late intervention was responsible for the eighty thousand votes that gave Trump his electoral triumph. However that begs the question why the race was that close. Jay H. Ell would argue that the narrative that the conventional politicians could no longer be relied on to meet societal needs had taken root and this is what put the populist Trump within striking distance. While the Democrats have an able stable of political candidates they might need to recognize that they may need a figure outside of politics to run with. Someone like Howard Schultz, the former Starbucks CEO, who has walked the walk, is the type of candidate that might fit the bill. He is quoted as saying that employee benefits should not be viewed as an added cost but rather as a powerful energizer of growth. Schultz also believes that those who are fortunate enough to achieve authority have a responsibility to see that no one is left behind.

The paradigm has changed throughout the world with regard to political leadership. This should not exclude exceptional individuals such as Elizabeth Warren or New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu. It is however salutary to reflect that there was no one more qualified to be President of the United States than Hillary Clinton but at the end of the day that worked more against her than for her. 

TRUMP: ONLY 1360 DAYS TO GO

The omnipotent  President Donald J. Trump, who is obsessed with being the greatest and the the winner of any and everything, has achieved his objective in the first hundred days of his Presidency. He has the lowest approval ratings ever recorded of a new President and has no legislation on any of the policies he promised that would be executed in his very first few days of office. He is thus, at this early stage, a serious candidate for being nominated the worst President in American history. Not bad going by any standards but who would expect anything different from one who believes his victory was by the highest margin ever, who had the largest attendance in history at his Presidential inauguration and is one of the greatest Presidents in history. 

TRUMP’S 100 DAYS - MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

Whichever way it is viewed it has to be pretty amazing that a Republican elected President with Republican majorities in both houses hasn’t passed one significant piece of legislation in a hundred days. His last minute effort at resuscitating the removal of Obamacare and creating tax reform is maneuvering of an unprecedented nature to create the impression of success. It is a Hail Mary effort too to get a win on day ninety - eight of the Trump presidency.  Trump’s dying effort to produce some memorable achievement prior to his 100 days in office being up, is nothing but a rehash of his well known tax reforms but still bereft of detail. 

He is also cheerfully ready to abandon his base to mollify the Republican Freedom Caucus so as to get the votes to dump Obamacare so as to register at least one victory. No matter that in the process he will betray the promise he made to his base to ensure health care for all. Then having sold what he has of a soul he still would have to persuade the Senate that all that matters in the world is that he has a legislative victory. The upshot of all this might become evident in the Georgia bye election and in the 2018 mid term elections. 

Then the Courts have hobbled his unconstitutional moves to Make America Great Again. His Muslim ban is set to linger in the courts till kingdom come. His careful attempt at correcting his first Executive order, has met a similar fate - he is found to be discriminating on the basis of religion. His threat to withhold money from “sanctuary cities”, those that refuse to assist his thus far abortive effort to expel eleven million “illegals”, too has been ruled unconstitutional. The response to these setbacks is for him and his quaint head of the Justice Department to heap abuse on the respective judges. (At least he isn’t attacking them racially anymore).

Added to these “remarkable” achievements is the ever threatening menace to his very Presidency manifested by the mounting evidence of the Russian assistance to his election and the direct contacts his operatives had with them. All this is ominously pointing to collusion with the Russians on their assault on the American democratic process which could threaten the very existence of his reign. The latter fact, even to someone like Trump ,who operates in his alternate reality has to be looming over his head like a dark cloud.  Finally, his first 100 days resemble more the script of a Gilbert and Sullivan opera than a coherent effort at Governance, so MAZELTOV!

THE TRUE BELIEVERS HANG IN WAITING FOR GODOT

The good news for The Donald is that buyer’s remorse has not set in for the majority of his voters - that is why he still has about a forty percent approval rating. They as yet have not given up on the hope that he will conjure up millions of manufacturing jobs, bring all the oversea ventures back to the U S of A, revoke NAFTA, reopen coal mines, stop climate change in its tracks as it doesn’t really exist, unscramble globalization, get the Mexicans to pay for that beautiful wall, give everyone in America cheaper more comprehensive health care, eliminate income tax, undertake massive infrastructure projects, increase the military, sort out the Chinese currency manipulators, bomb the sh.t out of ISIS, stay out of foreign military adventures, move the American Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and on and on. You see they believe that if the media would leave Trump alone and give him a chance to deliver it will all happen. As Jay H. Ell’s grandmother might have said, “They should live so long”.

AMERICA’S WORLD ROLE - ALL BETS ARE OFF

To those that worry about the role on America in the twenty first century nothing Trump has done could have reassured them. Out of the blue and in a sudden fit of compassion he bombed Assad’s installations that had launched chemical weapons. In a single stroke he took on Putin who he has been courting at the expense of abandoning America’s allies. Within a moment the mantra changed from “Wouldn’t it be nice if we were friends with the Russians” to “Our relationship with Russia is at its worst ever”. 

There is just no coherent plan or strategy. Everybody has their say and if there is any overarching blueprint it is to play “good cop bad cop” and act with surprises. Ironically the State Department which is usually the flag bearer in all things international have had the least input. Not so surprisingly and in line with the kleptocracy, daughter Ivanka and son in law Jarred are the most prominent American ambassadors on the world stage.

If there is now certainty as to where he stands with the Russians this certainty does not reassure the NATO allies. Initially the latter were labelled obsolete and or didn’t pay their fair share. Now the stance is at least ambivalent with his Cabinet reassuring our allies and The Donald joining in every so now and then with criticism or praise. His main weapon in his playbook is veering between blowing hot and cold. Then there was the bombing in Afghanistan with the most powerful bomb in the arsenal short of a nuclear weapon. That followed an ill thought attack in Yemen that was apparently decided over dinner. 

To put it at its kindest his initiatives in relation to the North Korean threat do not inspire confidence. It provides very little comfort to know that Kim Jun Un is by far a bigger fruit cake than The Donald. On the contrary The Donald’s usual modus operandi of threats and bullying just feed into the paranoid North Korean leader’s fantasy that the world is out to get him. Helped by Vice President Pence, who should know better, the response is warlike noises and warships that just make the situation worse. One alternative on the table is all out war. The fact that the North Korean nuclear arsenal is all over the show, underground and even under water make that not such a good option. The other alternative is negotiating by diplomatic means and giving concessions to China for their cooperation. A bitter pill for The Donald to swallow but there is really no other option.

To add to the mix are the bizarre messages of goodwill to the pariahs of the world such as Marine Le Pen who hankers for the days of the Third Reich and President Erdogan who has just been declared Dictator of Turkey. 

CONFLICT OF INTEREST.

Absolutely nothing has been done to allay concerns that the Trump Presidency and Trump Inc are not one and the same operation. The State Department on its website declares Mar a Lago, the winter WhiteHouse. The former is a private club owned by Trump Inc that has just increased its membership fees from a $100,000 to $200,000. (Jay H. Ell supposes Trump can claim this as an achievement of his first 100 days in office). Trump to date has charged his official accounts with expenditure at his venues. Any bets that he is hosting the whole Government entourage for free at what the travel sites used to describe as a “posh club”? By the way where would you stay if you had business in Washington? Jay H. Ell would register at the Trump International "because of its proximity to the WhiteHouse". All this is peanuts compared to the other potential conflicts of interest.

 Now it is common knowledge that he has massive business interests in Turkey so it certainly does no harm to be onsides with Erdogan. But that is not where it begins and ends. The internet swirls with rumors and “fake news” about business connections and loans everywhere not to mention the conventional media who have run story after story. Jarred has just featured as conniving with corrupt types who were bribing the Guinea government. Some of this could be put to rest by revealing his income tax returns which apparently are under life long audit. But The Donald insists that no one is interested in them so he is not going to produce them.

How big a story this will become no one knows and one never knows either if and when the cookie will crumble.

SO WHERE FROM HERE?

The Donald will backtrack and argue that a 100 days is just an artificial metric but that begs the question as to what he is going to do the next 1360 days. He has internal disputes within his administration, he has a ton more appointments to make and he faces a countrywide organized campaign to protest his every move. He has mobilized the Mayors of nearly every city in America not to assist him and his support really is dependent on delivering promises he just cannot. He has no clue how to work with the separate branches of power, particularly Congress and his abuse of the Courts every time they rule against him will not win him many friends. So to put it kindly he has his work cut out to convince anyone that there is just going to be more of the same. 

Unless the ship gets righted the Republicans will pay the price for his folly in the 1918 elections. His election from nowhere merely delayed the painful choices the Republican Party have to make as to their future. It is obvious that their electorate have had it with the Old Guard. The days of the Bushes is over. The electorate don’t really identify with the financial conservatism of Ryan. They want their Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and yes even their Obamacare as long it is called something else. So what is the Republican position? 

Meanwhile there still could be1360 days to go that the world has to face with Trump at the helm. One thing is for certain he will see to it that he is the main event each and every day so hold tight. On day 99 we have his one page policy on the new Tax Code which is going to replace the over 2000 page current mess. But as his army of explainers explain, "The details still have to be worked out"

Perhaps we could all go into group therapy.

ZUMA PLUNGES SOUTH AFRICA INTO A FINANCIAL CRISIS .

As Donald Trump’s woes inexorably grind on, in Southern Africa another drama is rapidly unfolding which too holds the fate of a Presidency. What both Presidential sagas appear to have in common are the drummers that they are marching to have very little interest in the well being of their respective countries. Trump appears to have colluded with the Russians to destroy American democracy and weaken its NATO Alliance while Jacob Zuma, it is argued, is selling out the South African economy to meet the needs of himself and three shady brothers who have a stranglehold on him. Trump’s future depends on what a few Republicans in the Senate might decide and or whether the 2018 midterm elections will show enough disillusionment in him to cut loose his support. Zuma has a healthier back up as he has inherited the party of Mandela, the African National Congress, (ANC), with it a fat legislative majority. He is relying on the fact that enough of them are too beholden to him to switch allegiance. Seventy votes need to abandon ship for a vote of no confidence to succeed. The latter would bring down the Zuma Government.

South Africa with all its wealth and promise is getting closer and closer to midnight as the erratic behaviour of the President careers on.

WHAT PRECIPITATED THE CRISIS

Zuma precipitated a major economic crisis with his recent decision to sack five cabinet ministers and six deputy ministers. The crucial axing was of his Finance Minister Gordhan and his Deputy. Zuma has desperately been trying to control his treasury for some time and has been through this exercise before when he terminated his then Minister of Finance, Nene, in December 2015. Like this time the action caused a run on the South African currency - the Rand. The latter in spite of reported Reserve Bank support has lost ten percent in a few days. On the first occasion Zuma recanted within days and appointed Gordhan as Finance Minister who he has now given the chop. This time his decision is for good.

The beleaguered President has made it quite clear that he is not going back even though Standard and Poor and Fitch have responded to his decision by downgrading South African bonds to junk status. Moodie’s rating group have put South Africa on notice in that they have three months to get their act in order. Zuma has thus signalled that he is prepared to live or die by this cabinet switch barefacedly giving inane reasons for it. Where he differs from The Donald is that is where his explanations end. There are no inane tweets or pathetic pleas of victimization. This is his Constitutional right and that is that.

THE STORY BEHIND IT ALL

The South African media - formal and social has been awash for years over the influence a family have had over Zuma. The Guptas are said to run the country to the extent that individuals are offered Cabinet posts by them. The oft repeated claim is that Zuma and his cabal are in the Guptas’ pockets. Currently the Guptas’ bank accounts have been suspended by the four major banks in South Africa who have claimed that their financial dealings have been “reckless”. At the time of Gordhan’s departure there was ongoing litigation between him and the Guptas’ who wanted to force the then Finance Minister to intercede with the recalcitrant banks on their behalf.

Besides all the stories of graft, cronyism and corruption that have plagued Zuma’s administration there are two major expenditures that Gordhan’s Treasury would not accede to. These are the purchase of aeroplanes and most importantly the creation of three nuclear plants with good old Putin’s Russia. The latter deal runs into billions of dollars and would devastate the country’s economy. The social media buzz is that there are astronomically fat commissions involved.

THE LINE UP AGAINST ZUMA.

The opposition against Zuma is growing exponentially by the day. However, like all democratic politics, change boils down to simple math. You have to have more votes where it matters and in this instance it is Parliament. About seventy ANC members need to switch. There are a number of highly influential power blocks that have come out against the rogue President as well as religious groups, non - governmental agencies and activist societies. But actually getting shot of him is a very tall order.

The Founding Fathers of the New South Africa.

Whatever old guard Mandela support Zuma might have had has publicly vanished. As it so happened the week of the long knifes saw the death of one of Mandela’s life long cadres and friends, Mohammed Kathrada.  The latter spent all twenty - six years as Mandela’s cell mate, was in his government and remained a close friend and confidant. Everyone loved Kathy who was regarded as a gentle soul. Just prior to his death he had written Zuma a very public letter telling him to step down for the good of the country. Kathrada also left instructions that he didn’t want the South African President at his funeral. The former interim South African President Molantehe eulogized the old ANC warrior and read this letter at his funeral.

 Anyone who was anyone in “the struggle” formerly assembled in front of TV cameras and berated Zuma for his disrespect to Kathrada’s memory and neglect of his widow who also served ten years prison time. This constituency – the fathers and mothers of the nation still are held in the highest esteem but none of them have any of the seventy votes needed.

Mandela the great conciliator formed his government with two other major groups who were instrumental in change – the Communist Party of South Africa, (CPSA), and the trade group organization COSATU.

The other alliance members – COSATU and the CPSA

COSATU, which was in the forefront of the struggle within South Africa at the time of the apartheid breakdown, has roundly condemned Zuma. He did not consult them as the original terms of the alliance dictated. The special meeting on the crisis had no qualms in blurting out that Zuma’s motives were not in the best interests of the country. In his cabinet reshuffle they claim he kept incompetents as well as appointing a few more. The CPSA who are in this triumvirate for historical reasons as during the dark decades of apartheid it was the old USSR that backed the ANC while the West acquiesced with the repressive apartheid regime, They sailed into Zuma for betraying the revolution. Between the two groups much sound and fury but few votes.

The Governing ANC.

At the time of Zuma’s midnight coup the ANC appeared divided on the wily President. Three of the six most powerful members of the party were publicly against the President. Most notable of these was Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC Secretary General, Mantasche. The ANC executive are technically a very powerful constituency in the running of the Government. This fact coupled with the fact that several ANC branches have criticized the President and the important ANC Integrity Committee had censored him lead pundits to believe that the impossible might happen – Zuma’s ouster. However after a hastily convened meeting “all the good men rallied round the party”, withdrew their objections and stood united as to what was now defined as an opposition attack on the ANC. The sop that Zuma appeared to throw them would be that the South African energy policy, (a.k.a. nuclear reactors), would proceed at a pace in sync with its needs.

There is growing disillusionment with Cyril Ramaphosa who was once a firebrand in COSATU. Greatly admired by Mandela he was the latter’s choice as his successor. After that defeat he turned into a capitalist deluxe and he is credited as being the richest politician in South Africa. That being no mean feat with the competition around. He was elected as Deputy Premier at the last ANC Convention and has been the hope of the sane. This was the first time he has made a move and in reality, if he was serious at thwarting a Zuma appointed successor in 2018, he had to project an alternative vision. 

Slowly gaining prominence is the ousted Finance Minister Gordhan. He is still a prominent ANC member and his popularity makes it difficult for Zuma to frame him as he attempted to do. The latter claimed that he had an intelligence report that Gordhan and his Deputy were about to sell the country down the river. The ANC Executive rejected that outright in their support of Zuma rather conceding that he had the right to axe Gordhan as he could not relate to him. The elephant in the room in a possible Presidential bid is that Gordhan is of Indian rather than of African origin and as such, in this polarized environment, is unlikely to mount a serious challenge.

However he is the focus within the Party at present articulating the ground roots dissatisfaction. He has roundly condemned incompetence of a Cabinet Minister who nearly left millions without their meagre monthly grants. He also makes no bones that the Guptas run the show pointing to an instance where they offered an ANC member a cabinet position and hundreds of thousands of rands.  

The ANC face serious problems as they are losing support at every turn. At the last municipal election they lost Mayorships in nearly every major city in South Africa.    

      

The Official Opposition

The official opposition is made up of the Democratic Alliance, (DA), which still has a lingering “white” image. They were not helped by recent statements by its former white leader and now Premier of the Western Cape which Province the DA controls. Helen Zillie, who is a remarkably efficient administrator and a revered pioneer of opposition against apartheid, tweeted that everything colonialism did was not all bad. In the current South African political context such a remark is akin to claiming, in America, that slavery was not all that bad.

The ANC pounced on this smearing Zillie as being a paternalistic white saviour. The ANC media led with the Zillie story while Zuma was burning. The DA has responded by dragging the Cape Premier before a disciplinary committee. They are making a serious attempt to gain disaffected ANC supporters and don’t need any reminders that the midwifes of their Party were white. In fairness to the DA their black Africa backing has grown by leaps and bounds in the past few years.

The quixotic Economic Freedom Party, (EEF), a populist Leninist organization completes the opposition. They only represent nine percent of the electorate. They have combined with the DA when it comes to opposing Zuma’s ANC.  Led by an exhibitionist, Julius Malema, they are not taken seriously at the moment.

Suffice to say the motion of no confidence the opposition have proposed is chanceless without ANC support.

Mass Protest   

Friday April 7 was declared a national protest day against Zuma and gatherings were held throughout the country. It was the largest display of public discontent on record. Businesses backed the outpouring of anger with well over half giving their workers paid leave to join in. The upshot is unlikely to sway any of the Parliament’s decision makers which will just add to the general discontent.

THE UPSHOT

Whatever the outcome of the protests South Africa has taken another plunge into banana republic status. Zuma is not going to back off and like Mugabe of Zimbabwe he couldn’t care less what the impact of his perfidy is. Inflation of the currency has little impact on the wealth of those that garner the lion share of money. Nor do the protesters have any votes in the Parliament. 

The massive, broad sweeping national response to Zuma has to have an impact somewhere. Most likely it will weaken Zuma’s hand at appointing a successor as he is curtailed from a future run by term limits. Also the DA have gone into election mode for the 2019 elections already. They appear well organized and funded and are poised to capitalize on their gains made in the recent municipal elections. Ironically they more resemble Mandela’s rainbow nation than do the ANC.

The fact that Pravin Gordhan has not resigned his Parliamentary seat spells trouble for the ANC. He is served notice that he will participate in the No Confidence debate and obviously will vote against Zuma. The ANC will have no alternative other than to throw him out and with him expect a big defection.

All this has brought about murmurings of emigration amongst the minorities. While the ANC radicals will claim good riddance to bad rubbish it cannot be good news. For whatever reason they believe that wealth, know how, skills and tertiary education will magically, automatically be transferred immediately.

PAUSE FOR THOUGHT.

One characteristic both Zuma and Trump have is – they both have no shame!