UPDATE: CRUZ’S COUP D’ETAT

Everyone wants to know how this stand down on the fiscal fight between the Republicans, on the one hand, and the President and the Democrats, on the other, is going to end. As Jay H. Ell indicated in his last blog, “Ted Cruz’s Cruzade”, October 4, 2013, the GOP were going to cave and each day their posturing was getting them further and further into disfavor. The question was and still is how this hostage situation was going to end.

WHY THIS MESS EXISTS

While both sides maintain that the last thing on earth they want is for the Government to shut down or the Government not to pay its debts, the Republicans precipitated the crises. If the Cruz lead Republicans had not intervened or threatened to intervene, two procedural fiscal motions in Congress would have passed.  One motion is to ratify the annual budget, which was the very budget the Republicans had proposed, and, the other is to ratify the Federal Government’s ability to borrow. These procedural motions also allow the US to maintain its position as the most powerful nation in the world to continue with business as usual. 

Just for the record the US is not bankrupt because it is in debt. The US assets way exceed its liabilities but like in all situations not being able to borrow on your credit card to pay you immediate debts result in devastating problems. The Republicans are prepared to spend on what they deem important

The Republicans, led by Ted Cruz, however saw political opportunities in both these votes. They added the rider to the budget ratification maintaining that they would not vote to ratify it unless the Government defunded Obamacare that the Republicans had already attempted to reverse 40 times. With regard to the raising of the Debt Ceiling, i.e. the ability of the US to borrow, which it has been doing of and on since Ronald Reagan, they produced a laundry list of demands that would in effect put all the policies in place that Romney would have proposed if he had been elected

REPUBLICAN COUP D’ETAT

So the very fact that crises exist is objectively and solely as a result of the Republicans’ behavior is incontestable. It is asinine to maintain that you are available to compromise on a routine budget Bill or a Bill to keep the Country from going into economic chaos. It is not a stretch to say that the Republicans are trying to execute a coup d’etat of the present government’s political agenda without an election. This they hope to achieve this by holding the President and Congress to ransom – either you reverse center piece Democratic legislation and introduce a host of Republican policies or we cause economic chaos.

Jay H. Ell does not want to upset the Republicans too much, because all his Republican friends are embarrassed by this turn of events, but all of this behavior is straight out of the Marxist/Leninist playbook.  Those guys used the Democratic process when it suited them and then did whatever else it took to attain their political order. Now of course if Jay H. Ell really wanted to be paranoid he would link all of this up to the gun lobby and their supporters who often connect their second amendment rights with veiled threats of using these weapons against a Government that went against the Constitution – whatever that means. 

SO THE DYSFUNCTIONAL BLUSTER GOES ON AS THE CLOCKS WINDS DOWN

* Daily inside stories are fed to the Press. Once again Boehner allegedly promises that he won’t let the country not pay its debts and two days later allegedly he won’t blink! Cruz believes the Republicans are “winning”. This he says a few days after Boehner maintains, “this isn’t some damn game”. McConnell and Paul caucus in front of an open microphone that they must say they want to negotiate even if they don’t want to, as that is what the public want to hear.

* Then the conventional wisdom is “Poor Boehner”, like he is some victim. Boehner is history whatever happens in this crisis. He must understand this type of thing happens in politics before he decided to make this his career. He only retained his Speakership by 3 votes and his situation has worsened. He has choice if he has to call an open vote then all this goes away. The opprobrium that the whole Republican Party is subject too over this issue will stop. Let him concentrate on the real fight and try wresting back control from the Tea Party.  Boehner needs to act if he wants any part of history.

·      Each day that passes only worsens the Republican position – 70% of the population blames the Republicans for the shut down. Seventeen House of Representatives seats that were reckoned to be safe in the Republican column are now considered marginal – if those were lost by the Republicans, the Democrats would win the House, an outcome that was not thought possible a month ago. The crucial Governor election in the Bellwether State of Virginia, the Democrat McAuliffe has turned a 5% deficit in the polls to a 12% lead. The Republican leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell, in the Red State of Kentucky is ubelievaby behind in the polls.

·      In spite of the argument that no one was interested in Obamacare 10 million enquiries have been made to the Government health site. The only criticism is that the waits were to long on the site. Even these are being blamed on the shutdown.

·      In the teeth of all of this the poster child, Ted Cruz, appointed to lead the Republicans in this coup d’etat, by the unelected Heritage Foundation, Conservative Groups and the Koch Brothers to name a few, has said, “Look, I’m in favor of shutting down the government and not raising the debt ceiling, but let’s not kid ourselves. These are only half measures. If we are really serious about stopping Obamacare, we’ll destroy the planet. “

·      The markets are beginning to react. Initially, there was no response as the money meisters, presumably could not believe that Congress could be that stupid to push the economy to the brink. The Dow is down from its 15,700 high to below to below 14,900

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The real big creditors Japan and China have publicly told the US to get its financial act together

* Meanwhile Obama carries on campaigning. He has one message at the moment – Boehner allow Congress to vote on the issues. The reports are if Boehner allows a vote between 22 to 60 Republicans would join the Democrats and the procedural motions will pass.

WHAT’S IT IS REALLY ALL ABOUT AND WHERE WE ARE AT

This is really in an internal fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party with the fulcrum being Obamacare that they both despise. There has been a massive miscalculation by the Tea Party and the Republican Establishment for buying this bill of goods. The ploy has failed and neither Cruz, the Tea Party nor the Establishment has a Plan B or the remotest idea how to end this all other than “destroying the planet”.  The coup d’etat lead by Cruz is heading for disaster. The hope is that that it does not bring the country down in the process. However, in the final analysis Boehner can hang on so long and no longer before allowing an open vote. The problem is how - perhaps Obama will let off him the hook by giving him a call......

TED'S CRUZADE- THE POLITICAL OUTCOME

TED CRUZ’S CRUZADE 

A phenomenon has emerged on the American Political Scene that has grabbed center stage in what is shaping up to be one the biggest changes in the American political fabric in history. (Blog: America at the Crossroads, September 22, 2013).

Ted Cruz has emerged as the undisputed leader of the new Republican Party. Sooner or later a coherent politician had to emerge to lead the Tea Party. Up till now the only possible one was Sarah Palin. She could have assumed the mantle but did not have the discipline or the desire to do what it takes to take on the job. For the rest there was a freak show including Caine, Perry, Bachmann, Santorum and Gingridge- all of who were chanceless and parodies of themselves.

 CRUZ’S STELLAR RESUME

Cruz is charismatic, articulate, intelligent and persuasive. He graduated cum laude from Princeton and Harvard. He also was the winner of several national debating competitions and in 1992 won the US National Speaker of the Year. He was the first Hispanic appointed to being Solicitor General in Texas. He assisted the Bush legal team in the latter’s successful challenge to avoid a recount in Florida. Since then he has written 80 briefs in actions in the Supreme Court. He was the lead Counsel in the Supreme Court in crucial gun law cases, the constitutional challenge to the State of Texas’s redistribution of Congressional Districts and several other Conservative Cases. Several of the cases he litigated were won 5-4 in the Supreme Court. For his efforts he was recognized as one of the leading litigators in the USA and one of the 25 best Texan lawyers ever.

POLITICAL CAREER

He did not mess around with the usual political foreplay and went straight for the US Senate as his first objective. He beat out the sitting Republican Lieutenant Governor in the Republican Primary and then went onto win the Senate. His victory was regarded by the Washington Post as the “biggest upset” of the 2012 election. Needless to say it was full press operation from the Tea Party operatives that allowed this to happen in addition to the skills and talents of Cruz.

SENATE AND THEREAFTER

Cruz let nothing stand in his way to establish himself as the spokesman for the new Republican Party in Congress. He defied every tradition in the staid Senate that has hallowed traditions as to the behavior of its members. There was no way that he was going to pay his dues and be the junior senator for Texas. He would not listen to the party elders. He ignored them and dictated the agenda.

Even more amazing Cruz defied convention and worked against his own Party’s Speaker of the House to support his campaign to defund Obamacare or shut Government. Cruz, defied the Senate Hierarchy and indulged himself to a 21-hour filibuster to defund Obamacare or shut down the Government. In the whole process he humiliated Boehner and McConnell the elected Republican leaders of Congress. To add insult to injury Reince Priebus, the GOP National Chairman, told the Republicans members of Congress to follow Cruz!

So in less than a year Cruz became the de facto leader of the Republican Party.

CRUZ AND OBAMACARE AND THE CURRENT  SHUTDOWN

The Heritage Foundation and its CEO, Senator Joe De Mint – the former, the major unelected megalomaniac institution dictating Republican Party Policy and the latter the chief unelected megalomaniac doing the same – decided, cynically, to use Obamacare as the bludgeon to break the President and take control of the US Congress. (Blog Obamacare and Obamascare Explained, September 28, 2013).

The Heritage Foundation sponsored Ted Cruz to do a countrywide tour to whip up support amongst the grassroots for this project. The public would be educated as to the perils of Obamacare. The tactic would then be to link Government funding bills and or the creditworthiness of the Country to the ending of Obamacare. Cruz by skillfully using a minority in the House to see that his bidding was done and almost single handedly in the Senate, trashing every unwritten rule as to Senate traditional behavior, saw to it that this occurred.

CRUZ THE PERSONALITY

Television talk shows now almost always include someone or other that went to College with Cruz. It is difficult to know whether these have been pre -selected because they all have the same refrain. He was either admired or despised. It appears nothing has changed.

He has the charisma, without the histrionics, of a TV evangelical preacher. There is never the slightest trace of doubt in what he says and does. He is convincing and on occasion mesmerizing. It is his way or the highway.

In Jay H Ell’s experience he has seen only one politician like him. Hendrik Verwoerd, South African Premier in the 1960’s, who was the architect of the philosophical and practical aspects of apartheid, also had this messianic glow. He too never ever gave the slightest indication that he was anything but a hundred percent correct. He never budged an inch. Harold MacMillan, the British Premier of the time, stated that he was the only political figure he had dealings with that nothing you could say or do would have an impact of him. This is rare in a politician as by the very nature of politics compromise is the order of the day. Chris Matthews of MSNBC’S HARDBALL has likened him to Joe McCarthy the infamous Senator of the 50’s.

There is one behavior Cruz has that Verwoerd didn’t exhibit. Cruz can debate effectively and convincingly on a position that he has changed on within a short space of time. This occurred, for example in the recent Affordable Care Act debates. Initially, Cruz maintained that Obamacare was the essence of all that was wrong with America and should be defunded - period. Then when the motion was changed to defunding it for one year he adapted his arguments to meet the situation. With equal conviction he maintained that all the Republicans were after was leveling the playing field. Big Business had been allowed an additional year to comply while ordinary individuals were being discriminated against by having to comply by January 1, 2014. All he was asking for was equal treatment for the individuals to study their options!

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

·      Cruz has effectively and finally divided the Republican Party in two. You have to take sides now.

·      Each day the shutdown continues makes things worse for the Republicans as more and more examples of the impact of their intransigence emerge. The Republicans in Congress trying to fund individual popular projects gains some traction but it also creates anger among the groups that are not so favored.

·      Three quarters of the population do not believe in the Republican position.

·      The Republicans are also the Party of big business. This financial uncertainty is not helping big business and several donors from that quarter have withdrawn. Business pressure will build as the date to ratify the Debt Ceiling nears. Also the electorate will join business in protest as Social Security and Medicare, for example, will not be funded if the increase in the Debt Ceiling is not ratified.

·      There is no strategy to the Republicans’ move. It is based on firing up the base and the belief that Obama would cave as he has done before. There is no Plan B now that Obama has hung tough.

·      No way will Congress default on America’s debts. By October 14 either Boehner will cave and have an open vote or, if push really comes to shove, Obama will unilaterally increase the ceiling himself, with the country behind him. He need not fear impeachment as such a move will incense the country even more than the impeachment of Bill Clinton.

·      Obamacare is here to stay. In the first day and a half the Obamacare website received 6,000,000 inquiries in spite of the fact that there were long waits and many more serious hurdles to overcome.

·      Nobody is going to boycott Obamacare for ideological reasons. It either meets their needs or it does not. The time for abstract rhetoric is over and the pros and cons are forefront. The Republicans have lost the fight.

·      Cruz is under massive pressure behind the scenes and he is not budging. Even if he had the majority support in the Republican Caucus, which he has not, he has offended too many to be the elected leader.

·      Ted Cruz’s honeymoon is over. He was elected in Texas with 40% of the Hispanic vote so even his reelection to the Senate is going to be tougher. Not that Jay H. Ell believes that Cruz is looking to a long Senate career. Perhaps if things don’t pan as planned and he does not get the Republican nomination for Presidency, and even if he does, he might after 2016 look to join his mentor Joe DeMint at the Heritage Foundation. Together they can look for something else to go for broke on.

·      The reality is however much the Tea Party has gerrymandered the constituencies in States to create an imbalance in the House of Representatives - (In Pennsylvania for example, in Congressional elections, the Democrats received a 100,000 more votes than the Republicans yet the Republicans have 19 Congressional seats as compared to the Democrats 5)  - the national consensus of the electorate is in tune with the Democratic Party’s more distributive policy of America’s resources to all its peoples than the Republican policy of “trickle down” economics.

·      Meanwhile as all this goes on Obama carries on campaigning to the nation – campaigning being the one area that he has no peer.

·      The Republican Party has got to decide what they are going to be in the third millennium.

·      Anybody seriously believe that Hillary won’t be President in 2016?

OBAMACARE AND OBAMASCARE EXPLAINED.

The Affordable Care Law or Obamacare has evoked the most bizarre and incomprehensible political response from the Republicans. Opposition to the Law has bordered on the absurd and grotesque. Notwithstanding the fact that John Boehner, Speaker of the House of Representatives had stated after the 2012 Presidential election, in an interview with Diane Sawyer, that the time had come to accept it and move on, he has since moved to repeal it over 40 times. On the most recent occasion he has also threatened to shut down the Government if Obamacare was not at least delayed for a year. So short of a miracle the Government will be shut down.

The rhetoric accompanying the attack on an Act, that was passed by both houses nearly 4 years ago, withstood a constitutional challenge in the Supreme Court and was a centerpiece of the Obama – Romney election has reached maniacal heights.  Ted Cruz, the Tea Party Poster Child, in his 21-hour filibuster in the Senate against it, besides all the irrelevant drivel he spouted, likened his stand against Obamacare to Churchill’s against the Nazis. Those that supported it were likened to Chamberlain. A Republican State Senator claimed that the Act was worse then the Slave Fugitive Act where escaped slaves to the North were returned to the mercies of their Southern owners while several Republican legislators have labeled it the worse Act ever! Some of the crude adverts already produced by the PACS are distasteful beyond belief – a crude leering Uncle Sam doing a speculum examination on a young lady and a rectal examination on a young man.

OBAMASCARE AND WHY

The opposition to Obamacare has very little to do with the Affordable Care Act and plenty to do with Obama and what he believes in. It is obvious whom is calling the shots – not the Establishment Republicans, Boehner declared himself long ago to Diane Sawyer and the Senate Establishment refused to buy the Tea Party circus as articulated by Ted Cruz. John McCain spelled it out that the Affordable Care Act is the law and that elections have consequences. Anyone who is anybody in the establishment have warned the Republicans not to shut the government, the latest being Romney.

As Jay H. Ell has blogged again and again, unelected megalomaniacs and institutions are running the Republican Party. Joe de Mint of the Heritage Foundation is the Tea Party Godfather that is calling the shots. (Blogs: The Republican Party is Dead, June 2013 and Obamagate – Boomerang, March 2013).  This is the height of hypocrisy as the Heritage Foundation originally supported the program and De Mint supported Romney and stated one of the reasons was that Romney introduced the selfsame program as Governor of Massachusetts. The Koch brothers have been rumored to spend between $60 – 400 million fighting Obamacare.

So Obamacare has to be brought down at any cost even at the expense of ruining the Country’s credit rating and/or shutting down the Government. The public does not fully understand the Act so it is as good an issue as any for the Tea Party to use to take over full control of the Republican Party and then the Country. In fact the Republicans as a whole opposed the plan so that they are in a weakened position to oppose the out of control Tea Party crazies.

Obama, also, has become the poster child of all that is wrong with a “country gone soft”. Instead of getting themselves jobs and pulling themselves up by their bootstraps the Democrat supporters stand in line for food stamps, unemployment payments, disability grants and the like. Now they want subsidized health insurance!

 In Kentucky the Affordable Health Care Act was introduced as a Kentucky state project. The Kentuckians have welcomed it and said it is better than Obamacare! A Fox opinion poll, - who else? – showed that 9% more Americans supported the Affordable Health Care Act than they did Obamacare. Obama, himself, has also quipped that if the Act succeeds it will not be referred to as Obamacare.

THE CURRENT USA HEALTH CARE SYSTEM

The Health Care System in the US is dysfunctional. It uses 1 in every 6 dollars spent at an annual cost of three trillion dollars. It is inefficient in that 50 million citizens are not covered by insurance. The reasons for them being uninsured, include, for example, the fact that their employers do not provide insurance or they are excluded because of preexisting conditions. Three out of four citizens who receive health care do so via their employment, the very poor, from Medicaid, the elderly from Medicare and the Veterans from the Veteran’s Administration.

This mixture of multiple payers, private and public result in the highest cost in the world for the administration of health care. Thirty cents in every dollar goes to the administrative costs – or 1 trillion dollars a year. Medical insurance companies are laws unto themselves excluding those with previous illnesses and excluding services prospectively and retrospectively. The companies are not subject to the monopolies act and there is currently very little if any competition between them. Several of the problems that have beset corporations in general such as obscene overpayments of executives beset them too.

Medical expenses are the commonest reason for bankruptcy in the US. These occur mostly with people on insurance as various maximums and exclusions apply. Every study has shown that every service, procedure or medicine in the US costs 3 – 10 times more than in other first world countries. The health care indicators such as longevity and neonatal death are also worse than in any other first world countries. The fear of litigation leads to endemic over servicing of patients by health care providers and nobody is moving to address that problem.

So it is far to say that in the biggest industry in the US no one is getting their bang for their buck.

THE AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE ACT – OBAMACARE

The Affordable Care Act, (AHCA), is a very complicated and tortuous act and is nearly 2000 pages long. Jay H. Ell will not go into why it is so as that is the way things work in the USA or used to work. It is what it is. It was enacted after nearly a century of Presidents’ attempts to create Universal Health Insurance. These included both Republican and Democratic Presidents starting with Republican Teddy Roosevelt at the turn of the twentieth century ending with Democrat Bill Clinton at the millennium’s end.

It is fair comment to say that the AHCA goes a long way to rectify some of the dysfunction in the system.

Below is a brief summary of some of the key components.

First and foremost it gives an opportunity for the 50 million uninsured to obtain insurance at reasonable, and where applicable, generously subsidized rates. (Remember the very poor are on Medicaid already). There is a penalty for those who do not obtain insurance. Already the rates for insurance that are being quoted are less than those being charged for similar plans. This is because for the first time in history insurance companies are competing for these customers.

Then no insurance company may refuse you on the basis of a pre- existing medical condition. Neither can it drop you in the middle of treatment because you have reached the “maximum”.

Benefits that are already in place include that children between 21 and 26 years of age can be kept on their parents’ insurance plan. This has been particularly helpful to those “children” who are unemployed in the current economic climate and would have to have paid astronomical sums to be insured on an individual basis. Those on Medicare are already receiving assistance in medicine purchase and their costs have been reduced dramatically. Another positive established is that all insurance plans have to include payment of preventive care such as mammograms, pap smears and colonoscopies.

Costs too have decreased by putting certain quality indicators in place in hospitals.

WHY OH WHY IS THERE IN AN ISSUE?

The Tea Party Republican Party fighting this as a life or death issue, on its merits is incomprehensible. Rather they are using this issue to reinforce their takeover of the Republican Party. Their ostensible rationale is that the government is forcing individuals to obtain insurance. Ron Paul, Rand Paul’s daddy, when confronted with the issue as to what Emergency Services should do when someone, who has a life threatening condition, has no insurance. Daddy Paul said that the patient has made a decision and he should not get treatment! Obamacare would fine this patient year after year for not getting insurance but would insist on doctors doing what they have to do.

How this is all going to pan out and the impact it will have on the political scene in the USA will just have to be the subject of another blog. One thing is for certain is that Obama has no locus standi to help mediate in what is really a Republican fight. Another certainty is that he is going to hang tough.

AMERICA AT THE CROSSROADS

For the past few years one of the fiercest fights in American political history has been waged. The stakes are the highest imaginable and they relate to the management and distribution of society’s assets, the regulation of the market place and the very value system by which the USA wishes to interact between it’s citizenry. In short this is a battle about the rights of individuals and the economic philosophies on which this country will be run on. The Tea Party has taken on the existing form of the American Society as defined and accepted by the Democratic Party and the former Republic Party for scores of years.

This war is likely to continue till at least 2016 when the dust settles following that election. As with all conflicts there is confusion as to what is going on as skirmishes are fought that appear to have nothing to do with anything. But the battle lines have been drawn and the warring parties have been defined.

If one wishes to dignify the fight in economic terms it is, on the one hand, between Keynesian and on the other, trickle down economics. Notwithstanding America’s adherence to free market capitalism, Keynesian theory coupled with the distribution of assets has been the basis of its economic policies for living memory.

THE DEMISE OF THE OLD REPUBLICAN PARTY.

(Blog: The Republican Party is Dead, June 2013).

In fact a major battle to create an opposition party to take on the societal status quo is all over bar the shouting. Rather than create a new political party, The Tea Party has taken over the Republican Party as their vehicle to create a new order. Their opposition is the existing Democratic Party and an ever-diminishing number of old Republicans who still understand the politics of the past. The latter even occupy key positions in the Republican Tea Party and are unashamedly being used by the new ultraconservative group to create the aura of unity.

The old style Republicans are at a loss as to how to react. Many are in denial, others periodically criticize some of the more outlandish statements of the Tea Party and a few vow to reinvent the old party in the Primary Elections of 2014 and 2016 by selecting “better” Republican candidates. But that will be too little too late. A few hope that the chief representatives of the Tea Party like Cruz will implode with their off the wall positions and that they won’t be caught in the explosion. Most, however, go along with the Tea Party in the vain hope that they will live to fight another day. (John Boehner, the leader of the House of Representatives, who has totally caved into the Tea Party, is still facing a primary challenge never the less).

THE NEW ORDER – THE TEA PARTY.

In January, 2011, Jay H. Ell blogged the coming out of Tea Party and two short years later in March 2013 he blogged that the takeover was complete. While the differences between the Democrats and the Republicans were always there they have sharpened over the past decade. The differences on policies on taxes, individual rights, societal support to the disadvantaged, market regulation and environment, for example, have always been central to the debate between the two dominant parties. However, there was the inevitable compromise at the end of the day otherwise, as the American Constitution is constructed, nothing would ever get done.

THE CENTRAL ISSUE

In this stage of the history of the USA, following the 2008 Great Recession, 1% of the population own one third of the nation’s wealth. The belief is that these selfsame 1% were responsible for the economic collapse with its subsequent unemployment and loss of homes. The 1% were not only not punished but also profited from the mess. Also the Bush tax cuts, that Obama was barely able to tinker with, are still in place and these favor the wealthy.

The income differences, now, between those in the top income brackets and those at the lower end of the scale are as great as they were before the 1928 Great Depression. The result is that more and more people are on unemployment, require food stamps, need health care insurance, have little if any savings and are in debt.

It is at this stage in the Country’s history that the Tea Party want to do away with all social programs and defund Obamacare let alone rectify the current imbalances of society’s resources. The practical means by which they are currently aiming to do is by not passing the annual Governmental budget, in the House of Representatives, which supports the social services and funds Obamacare. This is not ultimately going to happen because the Democratic dominated Senate will never agree and so unless there will be a compromise  all the Government finances will be shut down.

To summarize the Tea Party are quite willing to bring down the ship for their ideological views and presumably build a new America out of the wreck.

CAN THE TEA PARTY SUCCEED?

It is hard to imagine the Tea Party succeed on the National scene. Remember Romney had a manifesto that was a much-watered down version of the current demands and got soundly beaten. Also they and the Republican Party as a whole have done nothing to reassure the key demographic groups, women, Hispanics, African Americans and the youth that they understand their needs. Their tactic has got to be that those in power are responsible for the current and forthcoming economic worsening and that the electorate will turn to them, the only alternative, in desperation.

Remember the Tea Party is not running as the Tea Party per se they are running as the Republican Party.

In their guise as the Republican Party they have proceeded with the politics of nullification. (Blog: Obama and the New Nullification Politics, August 3, 2013.) In addition to getting rid of existing social programs the objective is to let the Obama administration achieve nothing. Now they are going for broke. They will defund the government, produce chaos and hope against hope that the Obama administration will either cave or get the blame.

The Tea Party’s aim must still be to assist the Republican Party in 2014 takeover the Senate so that they then control the House and the Senate. They believe they can do this and then the ultimate prize is the Presidency in 2016.

TEA PARTY ASSETS

The Tea Party’s biggest asset is unlimited amounts of money. In effect by representing business and money this is not surprising. Their largest benefactors are the Koch Brothers who have a combined wealth of $72 billion dollars. And what better way to spend it then by buying your own government? The Koch’s are spending  $60 million on defunding Obamacare alone.

The Tea Party’s ability to obtain unlimited funds has been assisted by a sympathetic Supreme Court that has equated money with freedom of speech.

The Tea Party is also being assisted by the Republicans in State Legislative moves to restrict the vote of minorities such as the African – Americans and the Latinos.

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

The current crises funding the government will resolve. Even if funding is withheld it will be reinstated after a short while. Obamacare cannot be stopped. Obama, on the stump, is welcoming the challenge. Obamacare is the law and recruitment of uninsured citizens starts on October 1. Jay H Ell does not believe this grandstanding will help the Tea Party but nor does he underestimate the Tea Party and their backers’ resolve to change the face of the American Society. However, history does not favor the Tea Party’s chances. Ultimately the rights of individuals triumph. However, never has there been this imbalance of financial resources backing a determined minority group.

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PUTIN CAVES ON SYRIA

There is endless punditry over the recent events relating to Syria. Most are critical of Obama’s role in the ongoing saga. Some commentators state that Putin has outmaneuvered him. - Putin should get Obama’s Nobel Peace prize and on and on. Why this bizarre interpretation is the consensus of the pundits is beyond Jay H. Ell’s comprehension.

The situation seems straightforward. Obama makes up his mind, rightly or wrongly, that he is going to bomb Syria and Putin and Assad almost immediately admit the existence of Assad’s chemical arsenal and are ready to give it up if Obama does not strike. Putin also then argues that he is on the side of the angels and foolhardily tries to campaign in the USA against Obama.

Rather than weaken the USA in world politics Jay H. Ell believes that Putin’s reaction has strengthened it aS well as Obama’s within the USA.

 CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING FACTS AND WHERE THEY LEAD.

*Obama announces he is going to bomb Syria. Although he wants Congress’s support his Secretary of State John Kerry makes it quite clear that Obama has the right to go ahead with or without Congresses blessings. Obama states that Syria had crossed the red line in the sand – not only his red line incidentally but that of the whole world community. Chemical weapons have been considered barbaric since World War 1. Even Hitler and Stalin did not use them in open warfare. Obama really has been committed since it has become obvious that Assad used chemical weapons.

*Within days of Obama announcing his plan of action, Putin, who had been openly siding with Assad and providing him with arms and advisors drops his all out support of Assad. He calls for bilateral action with the USA, to whom he had been openly antagonistic towards on the Syrian and every other possible question. Within the space of two days Putin says he is party to an ultimatum that either Syria gives up all its chemical weapons or face the music. Putin is ready to go to UNO Security Council on the issue. Syria is given one week to produce a full inventory of its weapons!

*The whole purpose of this volte farce, Putin explains in an unprecedented op-ed in the New York Times, is that he is a man of peace and that it is warmongering to be bombing the Syrians. So the Russian leader, who has vetoed every possible attempt to involve the Security Council in this Syrian atrocity, is now ostensibly doing all he can to resolve it with the aid of the Security Council short of force.

*Also there is no way Putin could have made these moves without the collusion from Assad otherwise he could be made to look ridiculous after all his grandstanding.

*The inescapable conclusion is that Putin and Assad will do anything to avoid the USA bombing Syria. Kerry sensing this fear belabored the point that force was still on the table.

OBAMA AND PUTIN NOW

Obama conditionally and cautiously welcomed Putin’s moves. He is of the hook. It is now Putin that has to deliver and Obama now knows that Syria and Russia are terrified of air strikes. Also Putin has bolstered Obama’s position in the USA where sentiment was leaning towards no foreign involvement anywhere or anytime. Not only has Obama got the deal force is still on the table if plans go awry.

If Obama were to have to opt now for an air strike he would have the political advantage to be answering Putin’s op-ed in the New York Times. Then if Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John McCain and the like want to ally themselves with Putin so be it. Putin is recognized for the thug he is in the States. He is a relic of the Cold War who cannot come to terms with the outcome of the collapse of Communism and the USSR. He has been constantly in the news here for his backing of Iran and Syria, his refusal to allow Americans to adopt Russian orphan babies, his protection of American “traitor” Snowden, his attitude towards gays and his locking up of dissidents.

Obama will be recognized as the only international leader to act on humanitarian principle and to back an international resolution against chemical warfare. The rest have either bailed out or their electorate wouldn’t allow punishing the Syrians. Maybe he did deserve that Nobel Peace Prize!

Incidentally no one is happier than Netanyahu at this outcome and his undisguised glee when appearing with Kerry at a combined Press Conference was there for all to see.

WHY?

Putin must have a ton of technology, weaponry, advisors and financial infrastructure that would be vulnerable to a USA air strike to have backed down as he did. If this is indeed so then the Iran, Syrian, Hezbollah, Hamas and Russian axis is pretty brittle. Putin obviously not want to see what he has established in Syria go up in smoke. So he took the lead in selling the diplomatic deal in the hope that that his protégé, Assad, will still beat the rebels without chemical weapons. In all probability however the Syrian war will drag on much like the Iraqi one has.

Also Putin’s miserable empire is highly dependent on Syria being intact. If Syria goes, Iran is weakened and with them Hezbollah and Hamas as well. This is his area of influence and then maybe, even worse for him Kerry/Obama may get something going in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine.

So Putin and Assad decided to cut their losses. The USA could have done to Syria what they did to Kosovo or at least thrown Assad’s administrative and military infrastructure into a shambles. And the reason they caved was Obama’s threat of force. Certainly not because Putin suddenly developed into a statesman who grabbed center stage in order to lead the world to a better place

  

PUTIN PUT IN HIS PLACE

As Jay H. Ell has blogged Russia is staking her claim as a world power by being on the opposite of everything -whether this be Iran, Syria, Civil Liberties, extradition of Edward Snowden or whatever. When one says Russia one means Putin. For whatever reason Putin fancies himself as a wheeler- dealer on the world stage. In fact he is a bit player at present and his KGB bullying tactics are at the end of the day not going to get him far.

It is clear that Putin is taking Russia back to the dark ages. His show trials of dissidents and his general lack of respect for democratic standards are there for all to see. His recent belittling of the LGBT persons, the baiting of whom, is a sanctioned sport in Russia, was recently extended onto the LBGT persons of the world. Putin maintained that "these" people were not welcome in Russia where they are prosecuted - all this on the eve of the Winter Olympics when Russia will play host to the world.

SNOWDEN AND OBAMA

Then there is the issue of Wistleblower /Traitor Edward Snowden. In the grand scheme of things Edward Snowden is a nonentity. Obama has been grandstanding about Snowden urging that he should be returned to the USA for trial. This is in contradiction to earlier statements that Snowden was “not that important”. Really he is not that important, but that is not the issue in regard to international extradition. Snowden divulged activities of the National Security Association’s Surveilance Activities and has been formally charged on a host of Federal Crimes.

However, Snowden’s importance is beside the point. America made a very legitimate plea for extradition and that fighter for freedom Putin refused it. He made no attempt to explain why he did this and he gave Snowden amnesty for only a year presumably so he can start playing more games with Obama in a years time. So basically he was telling America that he is the boss. He is not going to be told what to do by them. Once again he firmly displayed his in your face stance towards America.

Obama is an expert at handling game players of this nature as has been illustrated with Netanyahu. He told Putin he was canceling his long planned visit to Russia. This meeting had been floated as a crucial getting together of the two countries who were central to solving the world’s problems. America needed Russia’s cooperation so they would have to swallow the insults Putin gambled. (Putin had great success with George W. Bush who carried on the facade that Russia was still one of the two that mattered).

In addition to nixing this summit, lines were floated by the Obama administration, that America should pull out of the Winter Olympic Games – a prestige event that Putin has personally invested political capitol galore to show that the Russian giant is re emerging. Obama’s official explanation as to why he wasn’t meeting Putin included more than a hint that he Putin, was not that important, if he was not going to get serious about getting rid of nuclear piles and discussing human rights, for example.

PUTIN”S POSITION IN THE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS.

Putin is regarded as a despot by most of the democracies. His homophobic utterings are precipitating an international call for a boycott of the Olympic games. His influence extends to a few countries in the Middle East that are also subject to world condemnation. Nearly all the countries that made up the USSR have either joined his arch cold war enemy NATO or want to join them. He has no vassal states in Africa, Asia or South America that are dependent on him for handouts or to lead them to Communism. He is pretty isolated.

In fact one of the few factors that could give him status is Obama talking to him one on one. His ongoing game playing has lead Obama to withdraw.

WHAT NOW?

*The Olympic Games will be accompanied by more protests internally and externally and there will be no pictures of him and Obama snuggling up to each other cheering their teams on. In short the Olympic games will not reestablish Russia as a World Power.

*Russia will face more internal dissent, Putin will be seen to more repressive.

*Behind the scenes Russia will negotiate on matters such as nuclear stock piling.

*Internationally Russia will be seen to more and more obstructionist with their support of Iran, Syria and North Korea.

*When the year is up Obama would be well advised to not make Snowden a number one priority and give Putin a renewed sense of importance. Forget about Snowden.

*Russia will gradually continue to establish itself as a second level world player behind the USA and China.

*The most interesting issue that might emerge is whether Putin can maintain his control of Russia. The pattern that seems to be emerging in the countries that have had revolutions overthrowing totalitarian regimes is that the replacement regimes slip into despotism themselves. As Marc Anthony might have said, “So let it be with Russia”.

*The response to the new despotism seems to be another uprising by those who initiated the first one. The outcome then depends on who has the guns. Somehow Jay H. Ell cannot believe that the Russians went through what they went through to put the KGB back in power because that is where they are right now. Time will tell whether the Russians will buy this situation and allow this megalomaniac free reign of their future. It will then all depend on the military.

GOP FEAR OF CLINTON 2016 TURNS TO PANIC

The fact that Hillary Clinton is a shoo in for the 2016 Presidential election, with all its political and social implications, has turned fear into panic in the Republican ranks. In some ways Hillary is stronger than she was in 2008 having completed 8 years of representing the USA in an apolitical cabinet position. She looks Presidential and her appeal is even broader than 2008.

Jay H Ell has blogged about the Republican response to Hillary’s candidacy previously. (Obama and the “New” Nullifying Politics, Stopping Clinton in 2016 starts at Benghazi and Carry on Benghazi: Stop Hillary 2016 Part 2). As the date is now August 2013 one wonders when it will reach fever pitch hysteria. Then it will go into status irreversible fever pitch hysteria. But for now it just good old fashioned irrational panic. This has manifested in an out and attack by Reince Priebus, the Chairman of the Republican National Committee, (RNC), on certain of the media planning to do biographies of Hillary Clinton.

HILLARY

Hillary Clinton is not just any old anybody. She is Hillary Rodham Clinton. While she is inextricably bound to Bill Clinton in many ways she is a remarkable persona in her own right. (Her bond with Bill does her no harm, in fact a massive good, but that is not the issue at hand at the moment.) Hillary has a political career of her own. Staring off as a Republican she was an activist from the word go. She assisted counsel in the Nixon impeachment hearings, was actively involved in endless projects as first lady of Arkansas and the USA, Senator for New York where she earned the highest praise for hard work and dedication from the doyen of the Senate, Robert Byrd, and most recently was considered the most industrious USA Secretary of State in history.

In short when compared with the nonentities that she may have to run against in the 2016 Presidential Election, she is in another league.

TRADITONAL MEDIA IN ALL OF THIS

The traditional media is now, for practical purposes, television, (The New York Times is a holdout as even the historic Washington Post has become a memorabilia collection item for George Bizos of Amazon). Television is still hanging in there as it is more comfortably able to connect with the internet and social media and still be a significant player.

The television players are unashamedly concerned with ratings. Regardless of their value system it is, at the end of the day, all about selling soap. Thank heavens everyone needs soap so that to a certain extent television stations can still punt one or other political philosophy. However they all maintain that they are about “pursuing the truth”.

In the television political world there are three major players. These are FOX, MSNBC and CNN. The latter has a national and international following. While all purport to be balanced, Fox is the mouthpiece of the Republican Party and one of the unelected institutions that are in fact running the Party. MSNBC have endless programs with a pro Democratic Party bent. CNN, notwithstanding Republican smears, is the one channel that is attempting to steer a middle road. CNN have a massive infrastructure and are internationally recognized as the news program of choice. (This does not necessarily translate into ratings at home). CNN are heavily involved in organizing debates in the Primaries and between Presidential Candidates.

By and large the media to date have vigorously defended one another when anyone of their ilk have their freedoms challenged 

POLITICS OF FREEDOM OF THE PRESS

These players and the media in general all believe fervently in the freedom of the press. This value is time honored in the USA to the extent that it is enshrined in the Constitution as Freedom of Speech. There are Supreme Court decisions, almost reductio absurdio, upholding this value. This includes the right, to burn the flag, to wear obscene t shirts, utter the most inflammatory speech, purvey pornography and comment on the merits of judicial proceedings that obviously will have to impact on the minds of those deciding the outcome of a trial.

This is not really a Party Political issue but one or other Party invariably attacks the other for not truly honoring the Freedom concept. In the last election for example, the same Reince Priebus, the RNC Chairman, attacked Obama for changing the American way of life, It was Romney that would uphold Liberty and Freedom.

Not really a party political issue till now that is.

RNC’S PRIEBUS'S  RANT AGAINST THE MEDIA

Now MSNBC and CNN are working on biographies of Hillary, who has not as yet announced her candidacy for Presidency. The apparent scheduling of the pieces is in a year. Priebus went ballistic and stated if these programs were not canned the RNC would not allow any of its candidates to participate in any debates organized by these organizations. All this was giving Hillary an unfair advantage. CNN and MSNBC were given a week to stop production.

The media have also focused disproportionately on certain Republicans. Time Covers and other media have, for example, recently, repeatedly, featured Chris Christie and Tom Cruz, who are two of the Republicans fighting desperately to be the voice of the Party. Surely the other Republican dignitaries who are hoping to be Presidential Candidates have a right to complain? Come on Reince Priebus surely you have a responsibility to see to it that all your luminaries receive equal exposure or you will end up with the Republican nominee being the media choice and not your Party’s choice!

Also the GOP establishment attacking a Hillary movie is hypocritical in the extreme. In 2008 the Federal Electoral Commission banned a hate movie about Hillary made by one of the GOP paymasters, Citizen United. The reason they banned it was that they did not deem it a bona fide movie. It had been financed by electoral contributions and therefore was electioneering. It was against a provision in the Electoral Act. Needless to say the Supreme Court, by 5 – 4, declared that that provision of the Electoral Act was unconstitutional and spending as much money as you like on whatever you liked in elections was also Freedom of Speech! So apparently knowingly bad movies on Hillary are ok at election time but not those you have no control over.

PRIEBUS ON REPUBLICANS IN DEBATES

Incidentally, in their post election autopsy one of the RNC’S recommendations was to cut down the number of debates. The problem with the debates is that we learned too much about the Republican candidates. Romney was a hypocrite outsourcing jobs, Santorum was against women using contraception, Cain was crazy, Trump was a chump, Perry couldn’t remember which departments he was going to close down when elected, Gingrich confirmed his inability to be a Presidential candidate, to enumerate just a few of the gaffes. It is thus not a bad idea to hide all your candidates from public view because the less the electorate knows about them the better.

The ante was upped even further when Fox applauded Priebus’s decision who then pushed his media policy one notch higher, stating the RNC must stand up to the networks who do not promote Republican candidates. The way Priebus is going he must be the current Republican frontrunner for the nomination.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN

There is little doubt that CNN and MSNBC will not take any notice of Priebus who has merely given Hillary even more publicity and conceded that the RNC are terrified of her. MSNBC have already said that this was a decision of the entertainment division of their company not the political one. (Hillary obviously has the potential to draw a large viewership and thus garner adverts). CNN and MSNBC must be rather pleased with the free publicity their productions are getting.

NBC, the parent company of MSNBC, have further elaborated on the project. They have in the works a four part mini series of the life of Hillary with Diane Lane playing the part of Hillary. CNN are preparing a documentary. Ironically, Hillary needs this all like a hole in the head. She has enough recognition and who knows how these television pieces will all pan out.

There is also little doubt that Reince Priebus will carry out his threat, on August 14, to pass a motion forbidding Republican candidates from participating in debates organized by CNN and NBC/MSNBC

So this will all escalate and it is obviously a no win situation for the Republicans. What Priebus forgets that regardless of whom the media may politically lean to they want viewership. However, obvious it is that one candidate is ahead they work hard at spinning  that the encounter is close. All of media in the last election, to the last minute, ran stories stating that the Romney – Obama race was too close to call. This when it was patently obvious that Obama would win in a landslide.

The Republicans cannot win just talking to FOX news and Rush Limbaugh. How they get out of this mess will be fascinating to watch. One thing is for sure when Hillary announces, and Jay H Ell’s guess is that will be after the 2014 midterm elections, hysteria will set in.

For what it is worth Jay H. Ell’s advice would be for the Republicans to develop a political agenda rather than persisting with nullifying everything so nothing ever gets done and then wailing that the fight is not fair because they haven’t got a candidate to match Hillary.