FOR SALE: REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR


The old saying, "Be careful what you wish for" has come to haunt the Republican establishment. Their mantra that undiluted capitalism is the answer to all ills is boomeranging with a vengeance. No taxation, no spending and no financial regulation - with the world awash with money and all this Country's problems will be solved.


The Republicans felt they were well on their way to achieving their goal of controlling Congress and the Presidency. There was a weak President saddled with a weak economy and low approval ratings, a favorable deck in the upcoming Senate elections and an invincible majority in the House of Representatives. The Supreme Court had effectively taken away the last restraints on pouring money to obtaining political objectives. Surely then those with money would throw much money at the candidates who believed that they should keep their money? 


All the Republicans had to do was just tread water in the Congress passing nothing and blame Obama for the mess. His "socialist European" finance philosophy had not bailed us out and had just made matters worse. 


ELECTORAL FINANCE CHANGE AND THE PRESIDENCY

What has upset this scenario? There are many factors but JAY H ELL will just look at one for the moment.

First and foremost is that the Republican voters cannot decide who is to be their Presidential candidate. "Anyone but Obama" has been replaced by "Anyone but Romney". However it is looking increasingly more possible that the three "Anyone Buts" will, together, have a majority of delegates. In the good old days, after the establishment's candidate Romney's convincing victories in  states like Florida and Nevada, the "Anything Buts" would have been blown out. Who could afford to take on the establishment infrastructure with their resources after those convincing wins in key swing states ?  


However, thanks to the Supreme Court interpreting money as Free Speech, the "Anything Buts" are attracting their own patrons. What better way to spend $10 - 50 million or whatever than on your own Presidential candidate? - Certainly better than building a museum or being a patron to a Mozart. So Paul, Santorum and Gingrich are still very much around. (In fact Santorum, who is totally unelectable, is heading the polls for the moment). The only possibility of a drop out is the unpredictable Gingrich who says winning his home state of Georgia is crucial. (His patron has upped his anti to $10 million a throw). Paul is funded for his objectives for the long long haul and Santorum has now become a serious, relatively well funded, candidate.


So unlimited money with little regulation as to how it is spent has not produced a well heeled candidate to take on Obama, but chaos. Adding to the irony is that Obama, in spite of his philosophical opposition to unlimited funding for political candidates, has decided, "realistically", that he will have to take this money too and Democratic one percenters have only one person to give it to.  


HOW IT MAY PLAY OUT


Much fuss is being made about whether Romney wins Michigan and/or whether Gingrich wins Georgia. In the good old days such a loss would be devastating psychologically and politically and establishment support and organization would desert the candidate who couldn't even win his own state. The defeated candidates would politely bow out. Now it won't really make a jot of difference as to who soldiers on as, who needs the establishment ? Romney has their support anyway and he won't let go as he has organization and infrastructure to go right till the end. Gingrich's main patron is from Vegas is reported to earn $37,000,000 an hour. Now people from Vegas don't like to loose bets so he will probably just double down. As for Santorum he is on a messianic mission and is funded enough not to stop even if he looses his home state of Pennsylvania. Paul is in it to collect delegates and make a point. He will never stop and has not ruled out a run as an Independent.


A BROKEN BROKERED CONFERENCE.


With this scenario it is really very difficult to see a clear victor emerge prior to the Republican Congress and garner the 1144 delegates needed to put a lock on the nomination. This outcome is even less likely as this time around most of the States do not have a winner take all the delegates outcome.  Everyone gets some delegates proportional to their share of the vote. The last Primary is in Utah on June 26. So this is scheduled to go on forever.

That would mean a brokered nominee. Given the animosity between these candidates and the fact that Paul simply will not be interested it is hard to see how. Which of the three, for example, will "sell" his delegates, if they will agree, to become the Vice Presidential nominee? Will Romney be prepared to play second fiddle to Gingrich or Santorum - not bloody likely. Gingrich has better things to do than hang around and be told to shut up. Santorum will not dilute his message to join these half believers. He would be far better off waiting for 2016 and so it goes.


WHAT PRICE A DRAFT?


There is consistent muttering about a draft candidate. In the same breath the mutterers say how impractical and unlikely that this is likely to happen.  For argument sake let us assume that there is an acceptable candidate should he or she enter the race now? This would put him or her at a tremendous disadvantage and he or she may well not get the 1144 delegates before the Convention - just adding to the mess. 


No. The way to go would be to let him/her appear as a saviour at the Republican Convention itself when the stalemate becomes obvious. Now the Convention is three days long. Not much to get this act on the road. Anyone who knows anything about politics knows what wheeler - dealing would have to take place to get this finessed . Even more daunting is that this new candidate will have one month to campaign. The election is on November 6th and the Convention ends August 30th.


MEANTIME


As this all plays out Obama is getting stronger and stronger. The Republicans caved, without a whimper, on the issue of prolonging the pay roll tax cut for the middle class and extending unemployment benefits. They now face fighting against a 30% minimum income tax for those individuals earning a million a year and Obama's reforms on the Corporate Tax Structure.


... 2012 just doesn't seem to be the year for a Republican President. The best bet is that Romney gets to the magical number and then against all odds beats Obama


PS: JAY H. ELL'S guess is that Romney wins Arizona easily and Michigan not so easily.

STILL ANYONE BUT ROMNEY?

No sooner had the Republican Party Establishment heaved a massive collective sigh of Floridian relief that Mitt had finally shaken off all the "Anyone but Romney" candidates, up popped Santorum again. The latter won the Republican trifecta of Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota. This after the Conservative Republican stalwarts, Bush senior, Bob Dole, Donald Trump and Tom Delay had joined in and anointed Romney. The other "Anything but" candidates either had a good excuse - the sloppy Gingrich was not even on one of the ballots and the other - the immovable Ron Paul put in very credible performances even besting Romney in one of them. So at the end of the day the combined "Anything buts" still have more votes than the real thing - Romney.


WHAT IS GOOD FOR GENERAL MOTORS IS GOOD FOR AMERICA?


That there are panic stations is a masterpiece of understatement. This was reflected in THE Republican Godfather Karl, (as in Marx), Rove's rave against Clint Eastwood's advert for the Detroit Car Industry during the Super Bowl. Clint, a card carrying Republican, was patriotically extolling the dramatic come back of the Detroit car industry - ala never count America out. Karl said Clint was shilling for Obama who had bailed out the car industry and was claiming kudus for it. (In fact Obama is claiming saving a million and a half jobs by his action). Karl was made to look even more ridiculous when Clint - dryly, (how else?), reassured all that he was not for Obama but, one assumes, as the ad states, for America!


WHY NOW SANTORUM?


There are lot of reasons for Santorum's success. The chief one is that there is no enthusiasm for Romney. What there is, is related to his financial managerial skills. Those however have taken a sustained knock. Also his insensitivity is monumental - he is "not too worried about the poor". His penchant for firing does not ring well in the current climate etc etc. Also his chameleon like approach to key policies has never helped. Added to this the economy may be turning around and his whole campaign is really based on that it couldn't.


As Romney's cause was beginning to fade circumstances allowed Santorum to go to town on his issue - Social Conservatism. Just as the economic numbers looked better Obama got broadsided by the Catholic Church. The reason for this was the introduction of, as part of his Health Care Plan, The Institute of Medicine's recommendation that all Medical Insurance Companies include free contraceptive services for women. The new injunction did exempt the Churches but not their institutions such as Universities and Hospitals. So Santorum's people at least came out to support his and the Catholic Church's claim that this was gross interference in Religion.


NOUGHT FOR ANYONES COMFORT 


However in these 3 Republican encounters won by Santorum, as there have been in all but one encounter to date, the number of Republicans voting was less than in 2008. This in spite of, the never before seen, media hype and the, never before seen, money that has been spent on these Republican run ups. 

The Republican establishment is banking that at the end of the day that the electorate detest Obama as much as they do and that the Republicans and the Independents will, when push comes to shove,  vote him out on Election day. To date the Republican Primaries have shown nothing to support their optimism.


The Establishment do recognize that their best bet to get this done is Romney. Santorum will really not win over too many independents let alone women with his philosophy. Paul is quaint and honest but he cannot get it done. The unstable Gingrich will be the Establishments' candidate, literally over their dead bodies. So it has to be Romney.


But if it is going to be Romney, which I believe it will be, it is going to take a long long time. This while the Republican contenders tear into each other. Also coming soon are the Southern Primaries where Gingrich has his best chance to shine thereby ensuring the prolonging of the agony. Romney of course will win Maine in the interim and so it goes.


CONGRESS


Added to the Republican woes is the fact that the Republican led Congress has a 10% approval rating. Up for a vote soon are extending the pay roll tax cut, that allows the middle class to save up to $1,500 a year and the Buffet plan that ensures that those earning a million a year pay at least 30% in taxes. If the last session of Congress is anything to go by acceptance of these will not come easily. Obama has already warned Congress not to "muck up" the economic recovery. 


Romney, who earns $20 million a year pays 15% in taxes. It is a hard hard sell for him to campaign, convincingly, that if this tax increase is enacted it will be bad for job growth! But if that is the Republican congressional line, which in all probability it will be, it will have to be Romney's.  


In all probability, however, the Republicans will support the pay roll tax cut but will want some cuts in Welfare programs in return. Even if they are right their actions will delay the process and have the effect of them appearing to be against the move.


The bottom line is that the Republican Congress has harmed every potential Republican Presidential Candidate. If the economy continues to improve there is a good chance that they too will be voted out.


IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT'S OVER


We still have another 8 months to go with probably billions more to be spent. Obama who personally collects more than anyone else has agreed to having Super Pacs where millions can be donated as opposed to the limited amounts that can be donated to candidates and Parties directly. He had hoped not to have to rely on the Super Pacs as he had opposed the concept. But now that the Supreme Court has legitimized them he maintains he has no alternative. The fact that he has decided to go down this pathway and not stick to the high road, that many Democrats think he should, means that he feels that anything can happen and he needs the additional potential billion dollar cushion. 


So perhaps the Republicans can take some comfort that Obama is anxious that he has not this in the bag. And who knows the Economy could worsen and Romney could become the last white hope to save America. Also knowing Karl Rove the Repubicans will do what it ever it takes and the whole process will not be pretty.


To be continued.......

THE GINGRICH BUBBLE

Newt, riding on the boost given to him by his Political Action Committee's negative ads on Romney's business record, (See blog Romney Wounded and Bleeding), cruised into victory in the South Carolina's Republican Primary. In addition, his passionate anti media diatribe, delivered with his consumate debating skill and his nth renewal of his conservative family values, carried him to victory in this right wing State. Also he appears to have articulated  Tea Party anger. This became more evident when the Tea Party Godmother, Sarah Palin, finally endorsed him. By his victory he has ensured a long protracted and destructive Republican Primary battle that must have the Obama camp rubbing their hands with glee.


WHAT'S NEW?


Other than the prolonged battle that this result portends what else does this outcome change? It certainly does not remove the weakened Romney as the current favourite. His establishment support in addition to his financial backing and his in  organizational structure still makes him hard to outlast. However it is difficult to see him improve his image with his business and tax record unfolding. There cannot be any pretense that he is a Capitalist job creator and pays his fair share of taxes. Gingrich has thus served up Romney as the role model of everything that Obama is attacking in his tax policy. 


One thing is for sure Romney can no longer afford the luxury of not attacking Newt directly. So we will see the pot calling the kettle black on flip flopping of positions and more focus on Newt's instability. This has already begun with a vengeance in the Florida campaign and in the debates.


Also the social issues, that have been red meat to the evangelical voter, appear to have lost traction. Newt's second wife's pre - election expose of Newt's unashamed infidelity and "immorality" seems to have had no impact on the outcome.


While this ensures a tighter race it is hard to imagine Gingrich actually winning a State like Florida. There are so many constituencies there and, believe it or not, Gingrich is outdoing Romney as being all things to all people.


WHATS NEW(T)?


Even though Santorum and Paul are soldiering on, Newt has to become the "Anyone but Romney" candidate. Unfortunately for him the former two will still be taking votes from him as they have clearly defined constituencies. 


What is Newt offering to the debate other than a more passionate and eloquent anti Obama position than the rest? His economic policy is confused. He basically has brought down Romney on the same anti-  crony capitalist agenda that Obama stands for  -  a fairer tax policy and being for the victimized employees.   He epitomizes his job creating approach by maintaining that he will give out fewer food stamps and more pay checks! Other than say he will give young blacks the Janitor jobs at school he has outlined no real plans as how he will effect this. All this has done is outrage the African American voters.


He claims to be the Standard Bearer of Reagan Conservatism but he was a nonentity in that whole movement.  Also Reagan is a moderate by current day conservatism. Reagan created a massive national debt and raised taxes on enumerable occasions. And so it goes.... . Gingrich identifying himself with Reagan saves a lot of explanation as to who and what he is but is sounding like just another one of his sound bites.


Some of Gingrich's viewpoints are almost quixotic and are indicative of him playing to whatever gallery is in front of him. Speaking to a NASA constituency he was in favor of the establishment of lunar colonies!


GINGRICH AND CLINTON'S ECONOMIC FEATS


As an aside, it is quite bizzare how Gingrich claims credit for the millions of jobs created in the Clinton administration, while he was the Speaker of the House of Representatives. In addition he claims he was the architect, with Clinton helping of course, of balancing the budget for four years and eliminating the national debt. He forgets that he was no partner of Clinton - he was leading the charge for Clinton's impeachment while he was dealing, unbeknown to all, with his own  personal problems.  All this rhetoric is all very well when unchallenged but it will be tough to elaborate on over the next few months.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

In brief he almost totally relies on his eloquent sound bite "in your face" anti Obama Tea Party populist rhetoric to run on. And in effecting these devastating one liners he connects with the anger and pain of the Republican base. Gingrich is being marketed as an ideas man -  a man of vision. But he has to connect the dots.  For example, how does he get from having a "humanitarian" approach to illegal immigrants to a coherent immigration policy that fits in with being the biggest and best Conservative candidate in town?

Also he is totally dependent on his benefactors from Vegas who  financed his South Carolina win and gave him another $5,000,000 for the Florida campaign. It is common cause that without this he would have been chopped liver after New Hampshire. So far there has been no rush from other 1 percenters to join in. Billionaires are not know for their largesse and at $5,000,000 a pop soon we will be talking real money. 


So Gingrich is beginning to sound more like Presidential candidate Casey Gardener who was portrayed by Peter Sellers in his spoof on American politics, "Being There", screened about a half a century ago.


In addition, to almost outright middle of the road Republican Establishment antagonism, Gingrich's biggest problem is going to be from the real Republican right wing. Anne Coulter, who is right of Genghis Khan, is already screaming that a vote for Gingrich is a vote is a vote for Obama. Coulter's pronouncement must be a prelude for many others to join in. This eats away at his claim that he, rather than Romney, is the Conservative choice.


At the end of the day all Gingrich has done has weaken the Republican frontrunner. In the unlikely event that Gingrich becomes the nominee he will have to explain his rhetoric and somehow craft a coherent manifesto. Also he will have to explain his checkered ethical situation and how his "work" for Fanny Mac jives with his criticism for the company that many blame for the mortgage crises.


...... Only in America!

ROMNEY WOUNDED AND BLEEDING.

The attack on Romney's business record as CEO of Bain Capitol is very, very, very serious. Romney decided to run on his business record and not on his tenure as  Governor of Massachusetts. The latter  would set him up as a flip flopper de luxe.  His experience in business is the reason he should be President.  This was the alpha and omega of his brittle credibility. He maintained that he had, inter alia, created a 100,000 jobs and with his business credentials was just the guy to lead us out of this mess. 


ROMNEY'S UPHILL FIGHT


As has been detailed, in blog after blog, his fight to be the Republican nominee has been uphill and the "Anyone but Romney" candidates are many and won't give up. This business attack is something that will also not go away. Besides the merciless hammering he is getting from the "Anyone" crowd, this will dog him right till the end from all and sundry. It will also ensure that the end will be a long way off. He is now on the defensive both in the nomination battle and as the likely Republican nominee.


CORPORATE VULTURE


The attack led by Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry is unrelenting and involves, besides campaign stumping, literally millions of dollars of negatives ads. The latter is the selfsame medium that eliminated Gingrich as the number one "Anyone but Romney" candidate in Iowa. They have called him a "Corporate Vulture" and a crony Capitalist. Perry maintains that the workers suffer and a few net the loot. Gingrich links this to fraudulent activity going on in Washington and the corruption in Wall Street. 


THE RETURN OF SARAH    


Even Sarah Palin who has said nothing for months, has called for him to be transparent and reveal his income tax returns and full disclosure of "What Happened at Bain", the company that he was CEO of. This all without the Democrats saying a word.


 The Daily Beast columnist Andrew Sullivan opined, "But with Romney, we have a singular example of someone who made a quarter of a billion dollars by firing the white middle and working class in droves in ways that do not seem designed to promote growth or efficiency, but merely to enrich Bain".


OBAMA'S RE ELECTION AGENDA


This issue fits slap bang into the Obama agenda for this election. The whole issue of the rich not paying enough taxes and making massive profits at the expense of employees' jobs is part of the manifesto Obama is slowly building up to run on. To have a living example of  Romney's alleged deviant behavior exposed in all it's gory details by others can only bring glee to the Re Election camp.


ROMNEY'S COMPANY - BAIN


Bain is what is called a Private Equity Company where some of the worst excesses of  Corporations are said to take place. There are known as Corporate Raiders. They do whatever it takes to make money from failing companies. In this context whatever happened at Bain is not going to go down well. The fired will have little empathy for the efficiencies of Capitalism, especially when Mitt got millions and millions out of the process. The fired are already being paraded around. Those in Mitt' position usually pay Capital Gains tax on income which is a lesser tax than their Middle Class secretaries pay. A point that icon Warren Buffet is making for Obama every day.


All this added to an insensitive remark, admittedly made in another context, that he Romney, "Enjoyed firing people". On top of this he maintained that these criticisms against Bain and him were "envy".


GAME CHANGER


This turn of events is the beginning of a game changer. The one candidate that had the where with all to take on Obama is now wounded and bleeding. This must have the  Republican establishment pulling their hair out. Getting sophisticated theorists on Capitalism, from Milton Friedman's University of Chicago, to explain it all, is just not going to cut it. At best this is the ugly side of Capitalism.


Remember what happened to John Kerry when he ran against George W. Bush. Kerry ran on his war record which was from all objective accounts stellar. He didn't dodge the draft as was implied with Bush. He won three purple hearts. However a PAC, called the Swift Boat Veterans, smeared him of the face of the earth and said he was a phoney. The jury is still out on this issue but Bush won a second term on the doubt. Romney's credibility is far more vulnerable and in this context his credentials as a job creator are compromised. 


One thing is for certain is that nothing is for certain. In this 24/7 media madness you will be challenged if you become relevant. Truth be told JAY H. ELL had believed that Romney's business credentials were the last thing that could be suspect. But then he believed that John Kerry was a war hero!


SOUTH CAROLINA AND BEYOND


So it is onward to South Carolina where, up to going into print, Romney is still far ahead. How this will impact this race is an open question. So many of the establishment have committed themselves  to Romney that cannot back down now. Can, for example, the Tea Party South Carolina Governor, Nikki Halley, call it quits? However whatever happens in South Carolina this issue can only get worse. It is just too hard to see it turning into a positive for Romney. Damage control will obviously lessen the damage but damage there will be.


MEANTIME.....


* A 150 Evangelical leaders are meeting in Texas on a belated effort to get behind a single "Anyone But Romney" social conservative candidate. Like anything too late is bound to be too little.


* Obama raised a record $68 million this last quarter and is well on his way to creating a record billion dollar war chest for his Presidential re -election bid. This is not Political Action Committee money, (PAC), it is for donations that are limited. An individual, for example cannot donate more than $2,500 for any one candidate.


*You can ignore all polls as to match ups between Obama and potential candidates. It has been shown again and again that whoever is in the news is at a big advantage.

.. AND THE WINNER IS ROMNEY

Finally, it is beginning to shape up for the real battle as Romney makes heavy weather of becoming the Republican challenger to Obama. Republican commentators speak wistfully of a late candidate entering the Republican race but we have been through that again and again.... Also there are last minute attempts to consolidate behind one "true" Conservative candidate, but in JAY. H. ELL's opinion, it is not going to happen. However inevitable Romney's nomination might seem the road still promises to be pretty bumpy.


ROMNEY LIMPING HOME


"Cause he has high hopes, high hopes high in the sky apple pie hopes...". Mitt is still the leading contender after Iowa lived up to it's non expectations. (See blog "The Irrelevant Iowa Caucus and the Media Circus.) In spite of all the media hysteria the same number of Republican Iowians voted -  120,000, (the population of a small town) - as in the 2008 election.  Mitt after nearly 6 years campaigning in Iowa got the same 25% of the voters as he got in 2008........ This after the big bohaai Romney made about addressing the world after the Iowa race, presumably in anticipation of a major victory. New Hampshire is not going to change the ultimate world either. All though you can be sure the Media will read all sorts of conclusions from shifts in the percentages the lesser lights get.


AS WE WERE


Thus the "Anything but Romney" candidates are still at 75%, notwithstanding the fact that the Romney and his PAC's spent millions in Iowa. The millions were largely devoted to knocking out the then Sarah Palin du jour stand in, Newt Gingrich, but another stand in, the 8th green bottle, in the form of Rick Santorum emerged as the"Anyone but Romney" candidate. 


Now Rick is not really a man of the world. He lost his own home state, Pennsylvania, by 18%, in a senate race and inter alia believes that contraception is evil and that homosexuality leads to polygamy. He too has a ton of unsustainable baggage which if he remains the 8th green bottle for very long will be trotted out. Yet he only lost to Mitt by 8 votes. Santorum moves into the new reality, with some new campaign money but little organization and will soon be another notch in the Romney belt without Romney having anything to show for it.


 Newt  Gingrich's chances in this inane race have receded - cause he has been smeared of the face of the earth by Romney with millions of dollars in negative ads. His response was to call Romney a liar. He has vowed not to drop out of this race and his one objective is to expose Romney as being a phoney. He began in the New Hampshire debates and one thing for certain he is not going to leave this race with a whimper.


In addition, a new well-endowed Gingrich PAC has bought a video exposing a ruthless and greedy Romney as a vicious corporate raider, with examples of companies he took over, costing job after job. The video claims that Romney was worse than Wall Street and this is obviously a portent of what is to come. Romney's response thus far has been unimpressive. He does not answer the allegations at all and continues attacking Obama for job losses. The most damning part of the video is that it's author, is a former Romney top strategist.


The well funded, Perry, who was also trounced in Iowa, is soldiering on with Romney is in his gunsights. (This simile is allowed because they are all probably getting money from the National Rifle Association).


ONWARD WE GO


So the traveling circus now moves onto New Hampshire where Mitt is top of the pops. He was a Governor, (then a liberal Republican), of neighboring Massachusetts and his second home, is in New Hampshire. It is in this State that he does not have to argue forcibly that he is not a middle of the road Republican. Only, in New Hampshire are his poll numbers up in the 40's.  The one percenter, Huntsman, has "concentrated" on New Hampshire and is finally making some impression. Maybe it will stand him in good stead in 2016.


NOTHING COULD BE FINER THAN TO BE IN CAROLINA


Then there is South Carolina where McCain is fronting for Romney. Romney has to start improving on his 25% in a real battleground and South Carolina is where it has to happen. The realists have to come to terms that only Romney has the resources to see this one through and the "Anything but Romney" candidates are still split and compromised.  The Tea Party Governor, Nikki Halley, in that State has joined the establishment and she is backing Mitt. 


THE LAST HOORAHS


So it has to be all over bar the shouting. And shouting there will be. And it will be ugly. Newt, still the only real potential candidate to Romney, has nothing to loose and will hammer Mitt. Perry too will make his last stand.  Santorum will make claim to the mantle of being the true representative of the Republicans but to no avail. This will continue to Florida but has to fizzle out sooner or later. In the process it is all very draining and destructive to Mitt.


The 76 year old Ron Paul has had his 30 seconds in the limelight but he has had a very consistent message over these 76 years.  He is running a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire. Paul has declared that this is his swan song and why shouldn't he too go out with a bang? If he decides that his bang is going to be as an Independant runner in the Presidential election this really heralds big problems for Romney. If the latter would have to choose he would rather be badgered by Paul, even exposing him to kingdom come, in Republican Primaries. This rather than taking away a sizeable slice of the anti - Obama vote in the real election.


All this is not very helpful to the uninspiring Romney, who, at best is the Republican candidate by default. His message could be summed up as, "These are my Principles and if you don't like them I have others..".  But then Obama, too, has to win this. He is the ultimate "Anybody but Romney" Candidate. He has to close the deal unless he wants  to become the tenth green bottle.


 Obama's current situation and Romney's ultimate problems we will save for other blogs. Plenty can happen in a year to cogitate on when this two year Reality Show will sadly end. But have no fear another one will start up just two years after this one finishes....

THE IRRELEVANT IOWA CAUCUS AND THE MEDIA CIRCUS

The frenzy leading up to the Republican Presidential Iowa Caucuses is mind boggling. As Shakespeare might have argued the Caucuses, "Are much ado about nothing". At the end of the day, whoever may be anointed is the decision of a 120,000 Republicans who take the trouble to pitch up to a voting event.  Thus organization, money and exposure are paramount.  Exposure is critical but is useless if your supporters don't get to the caucus meeting places. So the media hysteria and their multiple daily polls are not terribly relevant as the 120,000, that go to the caucuses are not necessarily representative of the sample of the 3 million polled Iowians. Even more significantly Iowa is not terribly relevant in the grand scheme of the prolonged labour that involves the election of the Presidential nominee. As an aside the Iowa caucuses have not been terribly successful in predicting the ultimate Republican presidential candidate. 


MEDIA BLITZ


All this does not stop the media giving us a repetitious blow by blow commentary of the fortunes and fluctuations of the Republican nonentities involved in this year's Presidential nomination fight. For practical purposes there are two candidates for the nomination - Romney and the "Anyone but Romney Candidate - du jour". Everyone marvels how one by one the latter candidate has risen and then fallen. There was Bachman, Perry, Caine, Gingrich and now coming to you live is Santorum. Each candidate is promoted by the media and then slaughtered by the selfsame media to create an ongoing meaningless story. Santorum, in case you missed it has moved up, today, December 29, from about 6% to 16% approval to be a potential third placed candidate in the Iowa caucuses!


AND THE WINNER IS...


For those who are really interested in reality there are really two serious candidates in the Iowa caucuses race. The two are Romney and Paul. Both have extensive organizational infrastructures. Whoever wins is not very relevant. Romney will be very happy with second place as he is going to win New Hampshire and a win for Paul will translate into ziltch. Gingrich, who was top of the pops a short week ago, has said if he comes fourth that is just fine as he is going to win South Carolina. If Santorum wins, a very long shot - so what. He will be very happy to emerge from the shadows to come third. Whatever happens he has not the money, the organization and the backing to go anywhere. Huntsman is not even competing in Iowa as he is going to win New Hampshire! And so it goes......


MEDIA CIRCUS


This will not stop the media commenting and interpreting the Iowa caucuses up the ying yang. Jay H. Ell cannot wait for January 3 evening TV programs where there will be banks of learned panels interpreting, projecting and forecasting on the deliberations of the hardy that have pitched up to the caucuses.  As they say in the computer world - garbage in garbage out. One almost wishes for a sex scandal to refocus the media onto something else.


COMES DOWN TO REALITY.


Even if Math is not one's strong point the Romney candidate is running at about 25% consistently. The "Anything but Romney candidates", in aggregate are running at 75%. The Romney candidate is the favorite of the Establishment and he has money and organization. In all probability the "Anything But" candidate will be the even more flawed Gingrich. The nomination process will go on for a long time. The media need this because, believe it or not, the ratings are higher on this than anything else for the moment - oh for a war!


ANYTHING GOES?


Whoever the "Anything But" candidate turn out to be he or she has a potential 75% constituency to work with. Notwithstanding this it is hard to see the "Anything But", beating Romney. The Republicans, for whatever reason, have a tradition in nominating an old warrior. The Romney candidate then has to persuade the "Anything Buts", to join in to get rid of Obama. This is going to be a hard hard sell. 


If the sale does go through, Romney has got to decide what he is going to run on and how. The key issues are jobs, taxation and government programs. The 75%, "Anything Buts", are heavily into gays, marriage and other social issues that the crucial independants are not remotely interested in. 


So it is a pity that have to go through with the meaningless rituals of Iowa and even New Hampshire and South Carolina, because only when these are over can one really define the debate. And before we can define the debate the Republicans, if they are still one party, need to define what their argument is going to be against Obama. 


The whole nomination process needs to be rethought. Every state should have the election on the same day. If the winner does not get 50% the a run off between him/her and the second placed should occur. Then of course money and PACS should be removed from this and the Presidential election and we will be on the road to some sort of sanity. But meantime Santorum has gone from 6% to 16% in the polls.....

HOW CAN OBAMA LOOSE?

The Republican Party Presidential aspirations have sunk even lower than reported in recent blogs,  - The Republican Presidential No Hopers and The Republican Nomination Fight - What it Really Means? The nomination process which was scheduled to be a battle for the heart and soul of the Party has no credible torchbearers in the fight. Romney is the retreaded Center Right establishment candidate, and, Gingrich, as the last Conservative upright, has become the Sarah Palin stand in for the Tea Party candidates. Neither flawed candidate, in JAY H ELL'S opinion has much of a chance of beating Obama next year.


THE AMAZED NEWT GINGRICH - THE ANYONE ONE BUT ROMNEY CANDIDATE.


The fact that Newt finds himself as front runner must come as a shock to him. The fact that he is highly articulate, a shrewd debater, savvy and intelligent has never been in dispute.  However, even by his own behavior he was never ever a serious candidate. His initial campaign committee walked out on him as they said he wasn't serious and that he was using his candidacy as a means to sell his and his wife's DVD's and Books. His Presidential campaign website was plastered with adverts for the latter. 


This behavior was no surprise as it was a continuation of the reinvention of his persona. Since being thrown out by his own party as Speaker in 1998 he has earned $55 million in speaking, media and quasi lobbying ventures. Besides the fact that he has more excess baggage than any airline could carry he has nil establishment support. Already the attack adverts are coming out from former Republican colleagues who at, kindest, regard him as unstable. (I have little doubt that the Obama operatives are archiving them to run in the Presidential election should it be necessary).


One just hardly knows where to begin as to Newt's handicaps. Firstly, he has to retain the Conservative base that obviously has rejected Romney. He has not been involved in the Tea Party struggle per se and the current rationalization as to why they may actually come out and vote for him is that the Fundamentalist Family Values faction, just simply love a redemption story - three wives, public affairs,  religious conversions from Lutherism, to Southern Baptists to Catholicism, is going to be a stretch. There are signs of this happening in the blogosphere and by the poll numbers.


Also can the Republican Party give Newt resources after his wholesale axing and the whole House of Representatives found him guilty of ethical violations?  In addition Newt has nil organizational infrastructure of his own, little campaign money and only Donald Trump spouting his cause.


 ROMNEY


 Romney has no credibility with the Party base and the independents.  He can't really reinvent himself again as he has reinvented himself so many times that his video clips are fodder for every show in town. He has however got the reluctant support of the establishment. The crisp point is that although he has been designated the front runner he always been second to someone else in the Polls. He cannot muster 25% of the Republicans so how on earth can he win 50% of the electorate?


The only smear that either Gingrich or Romney can't level at each other is flip flopping. They have both been on all sides of most issues except marriage.


So on the one hand you have a candidate with reluctant establishment support and on the other with reluctant party base support. One of whom will have to unite both factions.


OBAMA


Organizationally he has no peer and he is back at it again. Although  his original supporters have to be suffering from a "let down effect", the demographics are still in his favor. There are more youth, more Hispanics and African - American voters, all who favor him by a wide margin. He already has close on $700 million, having hardly spent a penny while the Republican Candidates butcher one another. He is beginning to find his voice, pounding the stump, berating Congress and putting forward initiatives especially in relation to job creation and taxation. 


For practical purposes The Occupy Wall Street protestors are ad idem with him. Their principal fight is against the disparity of wealth in the country and how the system favors the 1% which just happens to be one of Obama's present foci. They are regularly in the news and have now have an organizational structure with full time workers in offices. They are receiving donations by the ton. Also, as mentioned in JAY H. ELL'S November blog, they have a vast potential constituency besides students - the unemployed, the labor unions, the teachers, the police..... 


HOW ON EARTH?


So why have the Republican Party not a slew of capable candidates to beat an incumbent that is operating in the worst economic recession since the Great Depression? An incumbent that up till now appeared to be aloof from the political process - leaving it up to the Congress.  An incumbent that received, in his own words, a shellacking in the Midterm elections. An incumbent that promised change but ended up with the same old same old....


The reason is simple - what has a decent opposition candidate got to run on? The Republican establishment has no real policy other than to deny Obama a second term. This principal objective was outlined by the Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, way back. Also the establishment are at a loss as to what to do with the Tea Party who have hijacked the Party. The latter seem to have a stranglehold over the Republican Congress nominating process. The Tea Party are so focussed that their candidates appear to know nothing about the real world and cannot hd the electorate's attention for any length of time. 


DOMINANT REPUBLICAN INFLUENCES 


NORQUIST 


The dominant personalities of the Republican Party seem to be on the fringe. Grover Norquist, who does not really believe in the Federal Government - he even believes that Defence should be outsourced to Private Firms - has a stranglehold on the Republican Congress members. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican members of the House of Representatives and 41 members of the Senate have signed his pledge not to raise any taxes whatsoever. 


The Republicans are thus made to look ridiculous not to renew a middle class cut of $1500 a year and pay for it by increasing the taxes, by a few percent, of those that earn more than a $ 1,000,000 a year. Also looming is the renewal of the Bush tax cuts. Obama's proposal is not to renew the cuts of those earning more than $500,000 a year. Then also Obama has proposed the Roosevelt solution to rebuild the ailing infrastructure thus providing jobs and stimulate the economy. This needs bigger Federal Government and taxing the rich.


Who can defend this position of protecting the 1% millionaire earners when 70% of the polls support Obama on this? Apparently not Governors Daniels, Christie and Jed Bush.  Nor is Governor Huckabee in evidence after running a credible second, way ahead of Romney, in the 2008 Republican Primaries.


So on the one hand you have the Tea Party focussing on social issues that have not grabbed the electorate's imagination in this economic crisis and on the other you have the Establishment that is petrified to move against the Tea Party. The only thing they have in common is to remove Obama - hardly a sustainable platform for 24 hour news coverage for two years.


TRUMP AND THE REST.


The other dominant force in Republican politics is Donald Trump. To say that he is intellectually bankrupt is an overstatement. Trump's  major contribution to this Presidential cycle was to claim that his investigators had uncovered extensive information that Obama was not born in America - reopening the long dead birther issue. He challenged Obama to produce his long birth certificate to disprove him. When Obama did just that he trumpeted that America owed him, Trump,  a big debt as he, alone, forced Obama to produce his long birth certificate!  


He is a master at manipulating the media. Initially he, was a viable Presidential candidate and now he is calling the shots from the side. He has breakfast with Michelle Bachmann and Newt has a much publicized visit with him. Romney has a telephone conversation with him saying how he, Romney, highly respects him. Perry calls him for his opinion and everyone awaits to be anointed. Trump invites them all to debate on his TV show as the world awaits Trump's decision. He also promises to run as a third party candidate if he thinks no-one is up to speed!


In all of this the likes of the Bushs' shut up as do the official establishment other than to echo what a disaster Obama has been. Even Sarah Palin has been mute for months. She obviously wants no part of the mess she spearheaded.


So what price a Republican President? You can get 4 to 1 from the oddsmakers. Not a bad price for what will be a two horse race! But remember, in this day and age of endless types of continuos media, including this blog, anything can happen - Ron Paul by the way has an extensive infrastructure in Iowa!