IS TRUMP IMPLODING?

James Carville the legendary Democratic operative has predicted that the Trump Presidency will implode within a month. Speaking on Fox News, Carville listed his reasons and pointed to Trump’s tanking approval numbers, (39% - 44%), which had been registered in the latest polls. Presidents usually have a honeymoon period which lasts months, but between Trump and his side kick Musk,(approval rate 29%), have broken the record, at least as far as under water polls in the first month of a Presidency is concerned. 

Jay H. Ell immediately after the election and 6 weeks before the inauguration, blogged, “Can Trump Pull This Off”. Enumerating the Institutional barriers Jay H. Ell underestimated by far the public's opposition and the rise of internet "bros" that criticized the regime, (The Meidas Touch is now the number one podcast beating out "bro" Joe Rogan). 

So let’s enumerate where Trump has succeeded and what has transpired to allow Carville not be laughed out loud, even on Fox.

Trump’s greatest victory was to browbeat The Republican controlled Senate to ratify the most unqualified, unfit for office, personally compromised, outlandish individuals for his cabinet. In so doing he succeeded appointing a Defense Secretary who would lecture America’s European allies and Justice appointees that he had every reason to believe would act at his behest.  This signaled a major victory for the MAGA King.

But what evidence is there that Trump is imploding or is he playing four dimensional chess domestically and internationally as Fox News hosts would have it? Or is he, thoughtlessly, with his and Musk’s actions, unravelling and blundering into a making America a third world banana kingdom?

WHERE IT STARTED TO UNRAVEL - MUSK’S DOGE

Musk took over with his ad hoc Department of Government Expenditure, (DOGE), and appointed a collection of anonymous youths that descended upon Federal Departments gathering in sensitive data on every American. DOGE shut down departments such as USAID which represents 0.4 percent of the Federal Budget at 41 billion dollars. In so doing he fired 2000 employees and put far more international hires on “administrative” leave. (See below for action taken by the Courts).

All probationary Federal Employees were fired while 2 million workers were sent notices offering 8 months payment if they resigned immediately, being warned if they didn’t voluntarily call it quits they would be fired anyway. That directive was stopped by a judicial temporary restraining order. He then told all Federal employees to submit within one day 5 points of what they had done the week before. If they didn’t Musk would consider that they have submitted their resignation. In the chaos that followed the Office of Personnel Management stated that the submission was “voluntary”. Before that clarification was delivered the heads of a number of departments including Justice, FBI, State, Defense, National Institute of Health, National Security, Agriculture and Intelligence told their workers to ignore Musk’s ultimatum. 

It is uncertain exactly how many Federal employees Musk has already indiscriminately fired. However the number is expected to be at least 200,000. Very soon, however a number were recalled such as the scientists who were managing the bird flu as well as the specialists that guard the nuclear stockpile. To clear this all up Trump stated that all departments must be prepared for lay offs!.

Musk has listed a wall of his actions, (receipts?). The five biggest entries were outright “wrong”. The Wall Street Journal, (Murdoch’s paper), investigated the real amount DOGE had “saved” and stated the real number was not 16 billion dollars but 2.6 billion. Musk then quietly removed the 5 largest “savings” from his wall of actions.

Twenty - one members of the DOGE operation have resigned. These had been seconded from the US Digital Services which specialize in technology to work for Musk. In a letter to Trump’s Chief of Staff they explained, “We will not use our skills as technologists to compromise core government services, jeopardize Americans’ sensitive data or dismantle critical public services. We will not lend our expertise to carry out or legitimize DOGE’S actions”.

The chaos that Musk released was epitomized by the latter waving a chain saw around at the Conservative Political Action Conference, (CPAC). 

In short this pandemonium created by Musk and Trump who obviously, at kindest had not thought through their random axing of agencies that had been legislatively created by Congress and had hundreds of thousands of expert employees, provoked a sharp response from the body politic and the courts.

THE BODY POLITIC, THE LEGISLATURES AND TRUMP - AND THE BUDGET

No one thought that the electorate had the stomach to protest the Trump 2 regime. The last ten years of Trump being the center of attention and disruption had been exhausting. They were wrong and the public’s response cannot be overstated. Every night in scores of towns in the USA protestors bearing hand made posters gathered and made their resistance known. Whether they were complaining about broken promises such as the lowering of grocery prices, the abandonment of the rule of law or the firing of the Federal workers they were out there in the bitter cold. On the anniversary of the third year of the Russian invasion in Ukraine crowds in the blue and yellow colors of Ukraine voiced their support of the victims. 

More unpredictable was the uniform anger that Republican Congresspeople faced at their town halls. Screams of “do your job” drowned the rationales the Republicans offered for their support of the turning America into an authoritarian state. This was not what they voted for. The Democrat town halls were characterized by their supporters demanding that “they do more”. The Trump administration does not seem to care acting as there will never be elections again. However there is an important election in Wisconsin which state Trump won in 2024 as well as Virginia holding its state elections later this year. 

Also Trump still has to pass to a highly controversial budget. The House Republicans are agreed to the overall plan but the devil will be in the details on what to cut. This plan, which narrowly passed The House allows him to increase the deficit by 4 trillion dollars, which is not sitting well with the fiscal hawks, The Freedom Caucus. The latter demand even more slashing of welfare programs. The cuts amount to slashing Medicaid by nearly a billion dollars, a program which affects 72 million citizens. This is a nightmare scenario for those Republican legislators in Purple and even Red constituencies, not to mention the citizens themselves! (Blog: Trump Threatens Red States’ Health Care, February 20, 2025). The beneficiaries of this budget will be the billionaires and the corporations. 

It needs to be noted that not one budget resolution has been passed in the last two years without Democratic votes. Should this budget bill be the final version all hell will break in the States, especially the Red, as they will have to axe tens of thousands of recipients of health care. It will be an outright betrayal of Trump’s promise on the campaign and what he confirmed a week ago in an interview on Fox - “Medicaid would not be touched”. Trump reiterated his budget would not touch Medicaid on February 26. The Republican Senate has another approach to the budget. So more chaos, The House, The Senate and Trump all on different pages.

So the voices of the people may have their first impact in the Trump budget vote. If the three person Republican majority in The House won’t be able to get consensus and if this leads to a shut down of the Government the body politic anger will rise to a crescendo. Alternatively if the Democrats decide to keep the government open they need to capitalize on the dysfunction that is sure to result as the as the Republican constituencies fight among themselves. 

The lawlessness of all this has hit the courts.

THE COURTS

There have been 83 motions in one month to question the legality of most of the Trump executive orders. Only the occasional motion has been ruled in favor of the Trump/Musk axis. 

Judge Colleen Kollar- Kettely  questioned the constitutionality of the DOGE operation, “Based on the limited record I have some concerns about the constitutionality of the structure and operations”. The judge expressed particular concern as to whether DOGE violated the Appointments clause of the Constitution. It should be noted that the head of such a body should be confirmed by the Senate and that the agency has not been legally constituted by Congress. In order to counter these flagrant violations of the law, Trump announced that Musk was not head of DOGE!

The New York Times lists 38 key litigations that have outright tested the legality of the actions of Trump and his administration. Most of these on their face seem to fly against the Constitution such as depriving children born in America of their citizenship and the privatization of the Post Office. Several already have resulted in temporary restraining orders, (TRO), stopping Musk and Trump in their tracks.

 A TRO issued by the Federal Court in the District of Columbia relating to the suspension of foreign aid, (USAID) was defied by Trump. The Judge gave the Trump administration 24 hours to release the funds or face the consequences! An Appeal Court rejected Trump's appeal and the Supreme Court have scheduled a hearing two days later. While these cold facts are being hammered out in a court thousands of children are starving and hospitals are being closed.

Besides the USAID  there have been a number of other TROS including the obtaining of sensitive data about everyone from the Treasury, summarily firing the Whistleblowers in a number of departments, the blanket spending freezes, transgender rights and the removal of government web pages. All the other litigations may well receive TROS. 

What is obvious is that the courts have acted promptly and are going to play a prominent role in the mitigating of the Trump/Musk attempt to turn America into an autocracy. 

The Supreme Court are now facing whether to back Trump in his attempts. In a rare 9 - 0 ruling they upheld the closing of Tik Tok which was a congressional law. They did this over Trump’s pro amicus brief asking for an extension to obtain a buyer. It will not pass unnoticed that Trump defied them anyway and is still attempting to find a buyer.

Should Trump further outright defy a Supreme Court ruling, which Vice President Vance has suggested, America will be in a Constitutional Crisis. Should the Supreme Court rule in his favor the crisis will be even greater as that will confirm  an imperial presidency. The Supreme Court helped create this monster by making it impossible for him to be tried for January 6 and then creating immunity from criminal prosecution for any actions relating to the office of the Presidency.

TARIFFS, IMMIGRATION AND THE FINANCIAL MARKETS

On the campaign trail Trump’s two biggest issues were tariffs and Immigration. Tariffs were the “most beautiful word”. Well he has been all over the show with tariffs threatening left right and center creating uncertainty in the markets. Up to time of going into print the on off on again 25 percent tariffs are about to be slapped on Mexico and Canada - the March ultimatum for heaven knows what has been extended to April. In the interim there is a 10 percent lump on Chinese goods and 25 percent tariff on aluminum and steel. He is threatening 25 percent tariffs on the European Union which he screams was formed to "screw" America.

Then there is immigration. Nobody knows how many undocumented illegals have been deported. What is in the public space is that the appointed Tzar says he can’t really get going because he hasn’t enough money. The New York mayor broke the Democratic Party line by assisting the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement in return for having corruption charges dropped against him, (which caused 8 prosecutors in the Department of Justice to resign). Because supposedly there weren’t enough facilities in the USA they used the terrorist detention facilities in Guantanamo Bay and then stated that gig was off because the place was in a shambles. Then it was reported that a major donor of Trump made an offer to privatize the whole deportation operation at a price tag of 25 billion dollars. Trump's solution to the "undocumented" immigrants is cough up 5 million dollars and you can stay.

As the construction, agricultural, restaurant and landscape industries are more than dependent on the “undocumented” workers the market reacted to the scare. The reduction in the work force together with tariffs  could produce inflation and even stagflation. Hence one month into the Trump Presidency consumer confidence has dropped dramatically and the supposed "Trump effect" on the stock market has frittered away, Trump had indicated his backing of cryptocurrency and that has 

collapsed by 25 percent.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It appears that James Carville was wrong when he forecast that the Trump Presidency would implode in 30 days - it has imploded already!

TRUMP THREATENS RED STATES’ HEALTH CARE

Trump on the stump at his Nuremberg style rallies promised to make life better for the downtrodden forgotten masses. Now the line is they will have to endure “some pain”. While his selling out of the post WW11 democratic alliance, charging that Zelensky is a dictator, planning of the removal of two million Palestinians to create a Gaza- a - Largo while negotiating a peace in the Ukraine/Russian war without Ukraine may not affect the day to day life of his MAGA electorate, axing their health care just might. Thus his desire to satisfy his billionaire donors with a massive tax cut will also clash with the needs of the majority of his bizarre coalition. 

In line with Trump’s objective to cut 1.5 trillion dollars from the current USA government spending to partly fund his over 4. 5 trillion dollars tax cut for corporations and billionaires, 900 million dollars needs to be cut from Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act which provide medical insurance for 125 million Americans. Ironically those mostly impacted are from the red states that put Trump and by extension Musk into the WhiteHouse. The chaos that this will cause is typical of all the Trump “policies” that simply haven’t been thought through. 

The chances of the resulting health care axing being prevented by Trump’s cabinet are remote. They are a collection of ignorant nonentities whose only characteristics are that they are card carrying members of the Trump cult and shine on TV.  The Secretary of Health Robert Kennedy Jnr., was unable at his confirmation hearings to differentiate between Medicaid, a program generally for the poor and Medicare, which is for senior citizens. 

Jay H. Ell has blogged on the crushing impact of Red States’ policies on abortion where the maternal death rate is exponentially higher than the blue states. For example, nearly 50 percent of counties in Texas are “maternity deserts” . The latter’s already limited obstetrician workforce stands to loose another third of their number in the near future and their residency training programs are already impacted negatively by the draconian “anti abortion” laws following the overturn of Roe v Wade by the right wing Conservative Supreme Court . (Blog: "Trump,Texas and Women’s Health” December 22, 2024). 

The impact of the projected cuts on Medicaid will be devastating for health care particularly in the rural areas of the red states.

IMPACT OF PROJECTED BUDGET CUTS ON RURAL HOSPITALS

Rural hospitals serve a section of the community who have a lower income. A substantial portion of the hospitals' income is derived from the payments from Medicaid or the Affordable Care Act. These hospitals would end up bearing the brunt of the now uninsured, who they are legislatively mandated to treat in their Emergency Rooms. 

According to a Health Care Advisory Firm, Chartis, 432 rural hospitals would be vulnerable to being closed should the proposed budget cuts come through. For practical purposed the states that are most impacted are the red Trump states. All in all 38 states are at risk for rural hospital closure.

The states with the highest number of hospital closures are Texas, (48), Kansas, (46), Mississippi, (28), Oklahoma, (23) and Georgia, (22). All States that helped put Trump in the WhiteHouse.

The states at risk for over 41 percent of their rural hospital closures are Arkansas, Florida, Kansas, Mississippi and Tennessee. Those that stand to lose between 31 to 40 percent of rural hospitals are Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas, while those at risk for 25 - 30 percent  are North Carolina, Alabama and South Dakota. 

Thus all 14 States that stand to lose more than 25  percent of their rural hospitals voted for Trump for President.

 Three Blue States, New Mexico, Illinois and Maryland are at risk to lose 21 - 25 percent of hospitals together with red states Louisiana, Wyoming and Nebraska. Kentucky and Ohio make up those who have up to a 20 percent projected loss of their rural hospitals. Of the 22 States that can lose over 20 percent of their rural hospitals 19 are in those that voted for Trump

There are another 16 states thirteen of which 13 are red that can lose up to 20 percent of their rural hospital care. 

Of a total of thirty - eight states that are projected to have rural hospital closures as a result of Medicaid being slashed 32 are MAGA. 

 SERVICES THAT MEDICAID PROVIDE 

Medicaid provides a welter of services especially to those  below the poverty level and varying percentages above it, depending on the individual States' formulae. The agency supports care of all sorts, primary, preventive, dental, prescription drugs, hospital and emergency visits, the elderly, children, those with disabilities, those on the autism spectrum, provides transport to medical facilities and nurse visits and on and on. Forty percent of the deliveries of babies in the USA are funded by Medicaid. 

Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act are closely intertwined. Under the latter Act those uninsured can be put on Medicaid with the Federal Government bearing 90 percent of the costs. Just axing that provision would produce billions of dollars Likewise insisting that those eligible for Medicaid must work will eliminate a large portion of the infirm and disabled.

 Discarding the extra provisions of the current services such as nurse visits or putting a per capita maximum per patient or lowering the already low payments for providers will also crash the program and produce the billions “savings” as desired. Any of these approaches will also have the effect of downing the rural hospitals as outlined.

Obviously whatever the method used to neuter this highly successful government program the rationale will be to “eliminate fraud, waste and abuse”. Improper payments in fact have been researched to be 5 percent which is similar to private insurance, Also the increase in cost per patient has been far lower for Medicaid patients than private insurance patients over the past few years.

This attack on Medicaid should be seen together with the slashing of research programs and physicians in various institutions such as the National Institute of Health and The Center for Disease Control. Also research grants at Universities will not be paid at the current rates possibly halting these endeavors. The latter with cuts in the National Science Foundation will result in the medical advances being drastically slowed down. The Foundation has been involved in imaging and public health research. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Health care is central to the slash and burn approach Trump 2 is adopting with Elon Musk being the battering ram.  Cynically it has been mooted that if Trump has finally to pay what he owes Eugene Carrol and the State of New York only Musk can lay his hands on the close to a billion dollars.

Ironically it is the Red states by far who are going to bear the burden of these cuts to health care. Even three of the States where Universities are hardest hit by the reduction in grants are Alabama, Pennsylvania and North Carolina which were won by Trump in 2024. 

The good news is that any budget package is tough to pass in The House of Representatives as the Republicans have only a three seat majority. Ultimately only Congress controls, “the purse”. 

Robert Kennedy Jnr., the new Secretary of Health, a vaccine denier and a conspiracy theorist is unlikely to help the chaos that Musk and Trump are may unleash.

The staff protecting the nuclear facilities and the scientists monitoring the bird flu were unceremoniously fired as part of the wholesale thoughtless slaughter of thousands of Federal employees engineered by Musk. Needless to say there is a desperate attempt to trace them  - made difficult by the removal of every trace of their existence. Very efficient is the Department of Government  Efficiency.

Why if Elon Musk is going to save the country with  two trillion dollars of "waste fraud and abuse" does Trump need to increase the budget deficit in this cycle by 4 trillion dollars? The answer is the tax cuts for the billionaires and the corporations stupid!