CAN TRUMP PULL THIS OFF?

 

Donald Trump's MAGA Republican Party has won a rare trifecta, the Presidency, the House of Representatives and the Senate. He has a revolutionary agenda, (Blog: Harris, Trump and The American Journey), and is nominating loyalists with no expertise  to do his bidding. Besides turning America into a banana republic it will take decades for the country to regain its status as the leader of the democratic world. What stands between the creation of an authoritarian state are a few Republican Senators and the Supreme Court, (G-D save us). Trump a gambler all his life is ready to take them on if they don't simply buckle down. So far Lady Luck has been on side. Even when he loses he declares himself the winner. He is all in on this his last throw of the dice - Trump v Democracy and he is odds on favorite. 

Trump's number item one on the agenda is the deportation of at least a million "illegals"  in the first year of the 11 million he has scheduled to be thrown out.  His number two priority is placing a tariff on every article imported into the country. He will disengage from the world.  Simultaneously on his to do list is vengeance on his enemies. He has made it quite clear that the Justice Department is his personal law firm and has nominated two of his personal criminal lawyers to numbers two and three spots already and an autocratic arrogant no holds bared disgraced Congressman as Attorney General.  

His objective is to gut or replace the Federal Institutions such as the Departments of Justice, Education, the Environment Protection Agency, The Federal Drug Agency, Immigration, Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Customs Enforcement to mention some examples. And on and on just to state the obvious, the aim is to make him a dictator.

The big question is whether Trump can pull this off.

TRUMP'S NUMBER 1 ITEM ON THE AGENDA - EXPULSION OF 11 MILLION "ILLEGALS".

None of this is speculation or guess work. The Trump/Vance ticket spouted it on the stump again and again that the immigrants were "spoiling the blood of our people" and their priority would be the expulsion of all 11 million. There is deliberate confusion of whether he is talking about the legal immigrants as well. 

 For a full flesh out of the expulsion proposal read Project 25 where the dystopian view is laid out in detail. The author of the latter is Tom Homan who has been appointed by Trump to a newly created position as "Border Czar". Homan was the official who oversaw the family separation policy at the border as a result of which five years later a thousand children have not been returned to their parents. On "Sixty Minutes" he made it quite clear that families that had both legal and illegal immigrants should all leave together if they don't want to be separated. He hoped after the initial round up many would get the message and self deport. He was understandably unclear where they would go but he would provide one way air tickets.

Homan will be assisted by Stephen Miller who has the position of Deputy Chief of Staff to the President. He oversaw the border operation five years ago and screamed at Trump's Madison Square Gardens final message meeting that "America was for the Americans". 

TRUMP'S NUMBER 2 ITEM THE AGENDA - TARIFFS 

Broadly speaking the President Elect's second priority is all about money, while he has harped on other items which impact fiscally and/or carry a high cost, tariffs is what he is talking about. He is going to introduce tariffs on all imported goods. The percentage varies depending on his mood apparently - anything from 10 - 100 percent. At twenty percent it would bring in $330 billion a year. It is estimated that it will cost each family at least $4,000.  

Conservatively to deport a million people a year will cost about $315 billion. Presumably that is covered by the money the taxpayers will pay on imported goods. That is not taking into account what that will do to the economy. As this will increase the price of goods it is projected to be inflationary.

But Trump has other money problems that can't be solved by increasing the tariffs.

MORE MONEY PROBLEMS

Trump has promised to cut taxes on tips and on social security payments. The latter brings in about $1.3 trillion. In fact he has even floated cutting taxes altogether!

Presumably Trump believes that this will all be balanced by the $2 trillion that his "Department of Government of Efficiency" under Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswany will find. Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion fired 80 percent of the staff now it is worth $9 billion not a good resume for the job. The "Department", as is not formed by Congress, will have to find money for a staff and other sundries first. Assuming that all the roadblocks a non statutory body would face are solved where will it save $2 trillion? 

In 2023 the Government spent $6.16 trillion Most of the  money is labelled for Social Security, Medicare, Defense, interest payments on the deficit, Veterans, and other items that are unlikely to be touched. In fact to make a dent on this massive sum the aforementioned areas are the only places where meaningful cuts could be made. Thus Musk and Ramaswany unless they go there they can just nickel and dime the existing bureaucracy in their non binding suggestions to Congress.  

It is painfully obvious that Trump's agenda is merely a collection of disconnected free floating ideas that were lapped up by his MAGA  cult. Last time out it was "Build the wall", which Mexico would pay for and "Lock her up" which couldn't happen as his Justice Department told him they did not have the evidence to indict Hillary Clinton.

The money could be found by closing every Federal Department down. The selection of his cabinet provides a clue which by and large has people who have denigrated the portfolio they have been assigned to. To pull this off these nominees have to be approved by the Senate. And therein lies the rub.

CAN TRUMP PULL THIS OFF. 

The question is can Trump pull all this off? Standing in his way constitutionally are the other two branches of government- The Legislature and The Judiciary. Another impediment is the power of individual States bearing in mind that the 23 that are blue, contain the largest chunk of the population and are the richest. For political reasons he wants to start with those Democratic States first. He needs to build detention centers in them. He needs local law enforcement to help. He will need the military to assist with the operation. (He has a plan to simply axe Generals not with the program). All will face legal challenges every step of the way.

His cabinet nominees will have to do the heavy lifting of ridding the country of the Federal bureaucracy and seek vengeance and retribution on all those who "persecuted" him. So far he has created a sense of shock with the names he has put forward. 

He needs to have his choices vetted and approved by the Senate. He has asked the latter to just go on recess so he can simply appoint his cabinet without vetting. In addition he needs to heed the warning of his Chief of Staff that he has to get it all done within two years as there is a probability that he will lose the House in 2026.

THE LEGISLATURE  -  THE SENATE

To begin his adventure he has to see to it that his bizarre nominees get passed the Senate vetting process. The first shot was to back a successor to Mitch McConnell, for leadership of the Senate who would agree to just put the Senate in recess so he can get them confirmed without hearings. McConnell has made no bones of what he thinks of Trump. McConnell still calls the shots in the Senate. 

Trump's chief sidekicks openly backed Rick Scott who reassured the President Elect he would do his bidding. Mitch McConnell's candidate John Thune emerged from the closed door caucus meeting as the victor. Scott was eliminated almost immediately and the battle was between two McConnell supporters who are also institutionalists. 

So Trump hopelessly lost in the first round of battle It remains to be seen whether Thune, who supports Trump's political agenda will accede to his "recess" requests. 

Should Thune somehow agree to recesses the rush will be on to go to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has already ruled on the ability of the President to make recess appointments. They ruled 9 - 0 in 2014 that the President could not make recess appointments unless the Senate had been closed for at least 10 days. They have not ruled on whether appointments can be made in an artificially created recess. To aid and abet Trump to kibosh the Constitution that relegates the Judiciary might just be a bridge too far for Chief Justice Roberts to cross.

Thune has already publicly made his position clear on kiboshing the filibuster provision in the Senate which Trump wanted axed. The provision makes nearly every issue brought to the floor in the Senate requiring sixty votes except for a few issues such as appointments. The Republicans will end up with fifty one or fifty two as Marco Rubio has been seconded to Trump's cabinet. Thus at most 3 Republicans would be needed to vote with the Democrats to stop an appointment.  

There are several Trump appointments that border on lunacy that would have to be confirmed by the Senate. Any nomination failure and all hell will break loose so it remains to be seen whether any Republicans will buck their newly anointed President. The Trump cabinet pick for attorney general Matt Gaetz has resulted in unprecedented public outcry by Senate Republicans. There is little doubt with Senate vetting several others will go for a loop. Trump will then wait for a normal recess and install his rejected appointees and then it is off to The Supreme Court. So fasten your seat belts and get ready for the ride.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

America isn't a Westminster Democracy so there can't be buyers' remorse. There is lot to answer on both sides of the aisle for allowing this to happen. However the truism remains the country gets the leader it deserves. That is a bit tough on the rest of the world that never had a vote but it is what it is.

Whether Trump can pull this off or not is not in his hands but rather in the thin line of checks and balances that the Founders of this Republic battered out about two hundred and fifty years ago.  

At best America is just in for 2 years of incompetence. The majority of economists forecast inflation with his fiscal plans. 

Never underestimate or for that matter overestimate Trump. He may have had Machiavelli's "The Prince" read to him but he is no strategist. He has not thought this through. 

 

HARRIS, TRUMP AND THE AMERICAN STORY

With the election over and Kamala Harris vanquished, there is an audible groan reverberating across the globe. In this Titanic clash there was a fork in the road where the electorate was given a choice as to which direction they wanted the American Story to continue. They chose to follow former President Trump who described America as a "Garbage Can". 

Now is the moment to reflect as to how embedded Trump and Harris are in the American narrative and what constitutes the latter. The contrasting visions between the two protagonists couldn't have been starker. Their race and gender are even more defining. Harris is a first generation American of the pigment that the Trump MAGA movement have made abundantly clear is not the kind that they want as Americans. Even more disqualifying is that she is a woman. Trump on the other hand is a multigenerational white male property owner, who has the unlimited resources of the richest man in the world and his dominant social medium platform.

THE STORY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

The story of the USA isn't nearly as pretty as it is romanticized  from a white perspective. It is mired by the slaughter of its indigenous peoples and slavery on a vast scale. What distinguished it, for purposes of this discussion from other settler colonies of that period, is that it won a war of Independence to rid itself of the dictatorial rule of King George III. This was way back in the eighteenth century. 

Other British colonized countries. to this day, maintain a relationship with the "mother ship"  or severed ties hundreds of years later. They inherited cultural norms and political systems from the "oppressor". The British Empire colonies have Westminster Parliamentary style governmental models and beat them at their national game of cricket, which to many epitomizes the English way of life. These contrasts are illustrated by just looking at sleepy Canada next door where the British monarch's face is still on its currency.

America went to war against the British with a flourish and announced their manifesto in the "Declaration of Independence"

THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE 

Thomas Jefferson the author of America' s "Declaration of Independence", laid down the bedrock of what the country would maintain was it's principles. This document was remarkable for its times. Profoundly influenced by the Enlightenment figures particularly John Locke, it was signed by all 13 States. The Declaration was aspirational as the author was well aware that it made no concessions to the slaves and indigenous natives. 

 Inter alia The Declaration maintained, "We hold these truths to be self evident that all men were created equal, Included was also "...Governments deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed..."

Earth shattering was the statement that "all men were created equal". It was all the more so in that these were the words that the citizenry, led by George Washington, were prepared to lay down their lives for. The estimate of Americans dying in the 8 year long War of Independence was well over 25,000. Some have posited as many as 75,000 out of a population, including slaves, of 2,500,000.

Trump a male white property owner would have  agreed to all of this with a wink and a nod. Of course he would have been medically unfit to fight the war as that was a deal for "Suckers and losers". There would have been no place for a Black woman other than being a slave mistress to Jefferson himself.

To ensure that they would not have a repetition of dictatorship The Founding Fathers labored long and hard over a Constitution.

THE AMERICAN CONSTITUTION

So the United States had to invent its own narrative with its own way of governing. Thomas Jefferson had written the manifesto in 1776. After the victory it was fleshed out in a Constitution, (1787), which was designed for its times, a compromise to include the slave states of the South.  Central to the exercise was to create a mechanism whereby the country would never be ruled by a King - "A Petty Tyrant". In order to effect this objective they created an elaborate system of three co - equal branches of government. The Executive Branch, which had at its head The President, would be held in check by the independent Legislative and Judicial branches. Among many rights enshrined in the Constitution and its Amendments was the rule of law and that all were equal before the law. 

THE STORY CONTINUED - EXPANSION OF ALL CITIZENS' RIGHTS

It took a Civil War nearly a hundred years later where men once again followed a transformational leader, Abraham Lincoln, to move, " that all men were created equal" mantra to rid the country of slavery. Nearly a million died for their beliefs - approximately equal numbers of Unionists (The North) and Confederalists, (The South). Many believe that this division is still the basis of current battle for the heart and soul of America. 

Nevertheless the war moved the aspirational needle more than a bit, the 13th, 14th and 15th Amendments to the Constitution added "The Negros" to the "all men are created equal" list. Kamala wouldn't have been included as she is a woman. Then followed "Reconstruction" with great advancement of the former slaves only to be negated by Jim Crow and The Klu Klux Klan who introduced draconian segregation laws in The South as well as lynching of "uppity blacks" while effectively depriving them of the vote. All to be reversed by Martin Luther King's Civil Rights protests and Lyndon Baines Johnson's Civil Rights Legislation in the 1960's. 

Oh just one more major movement in the "all men are created equal" saga, in 1922 women finally became part of "all men" and the 19th Amendment was passed. This too had been a long and bitter struggle and came well after the United Kingdom's decision. So Kamala would have been finally able to vote.  Significantly women's rights were central in the 2024 election. Neither Trump or Vance  believe that women were also "created equal", and they said so!

It is fair to say that it has been a long walk.  The Founders' original constitution designed to avoid a dictatorship has come to a screeching halt. A Trump victory following a Supreme Court decision limiting a President's criminal liability has paved the way for authoritarian rule - the very reason the War of Independence was fought over. However "all men" include all citizens and they are the ones who have put Trump in power and can remove him!  

The population of America expanded exponentially over the centuries as the country sponge like mopped up refugees from  Western and Eastern Europe including Russia.  

IMMIGRATION AS PART OF THE STORY

America throughout the nearly four hundred years since The Pilgrim Fathers has attracted boundless numbers of immigrants. These have been welcomed. On the Statue of Liberty which immigrants passed on their way to Ellis Island was the welcoming message, "Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breath free...". Even after the 1924 Immigration Act which created national quotas for immigration, the legal and illegal immigration to America has provided an unparalleled source of workers highly skilled and unskilled that have allowed America to become the military and industrial powerhouse of the world. 

As everyone except the indigenous Native Americans is either an immigrant themselves or descendants of immigrants or slaves there has been generally an acceptance of them with a path to citizenship. With the country trending to have a minority of white skinned citizens, immigration legal and illegal became the major platform of the Trump Republican Party. The rhetoric towards those who derive from "shit hole countries" has been openly racist. 

Number one on Trump's agenda regardless of the economic consequences is the rounding up and deporting of 11 million "illegals". Ironically the Trump triumph could not have been achieved had such large numbers of Latino immigrant men switched to him. 

So the world watched as America frog marched to isolationism and authoritarianism.

 WORLD INVOLVEMENT AS PART OF THE STORY

America's leadership in the world has been a wedge issue ever since it has become relevant. It is fair to argue that America wouldn't have been involved in WW1 had not the Germans torpedoed their submarines or WW11 had the Japanese not bombed Pearl Harbor. Not that there weren't protagonists for defending world democracy but the country was so split that direct involvement was out of the question. Opposition to WW11 was to a large extent pro Nazi and Franklin Roosevelt had to struggle to support the Allied Forces. 

Notwithstanding the division prior to the World Wars, Americans honor the veterans of those clashes and proudly maintain that their involvement helped the world fight off fascism. The anti war party had the same name as Trump often uses to describe his overall philosophy (sic), "America First". Trump has championed an isolationist policy, that together with his bromance with Putin has put the fear of G-D in the Ukrainians. 

Following WW11 American sentiment to become the leader of the world's Democracies became more bipartisan. All Presidents from FDR to Biden have unhesitatingly supported the role as it also ensures the safety of the USA. All except Trump that is.

There have been many misadventures such as Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan and after the Cold War ended the necessity of NATO was questioned. However with an authoritarian axis once again being formed between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea there is an urgency, not shared by Trump who admires the leadership of those countries, for America to continue to lead the "Free World".  Trump's ascendency to Commander in Chief will impact the world order dramatically. This especially if two four star generals who served under him in the most senior of positions, characterization of him being a "Fascist to the core" proves correct.

THE 2024 ELECTION AND THE AMERICAN STORY,

It is an irony that this election Trump's opponent was a transformative woman leader, who is pigmented and a first generation immigrant who has reveled in the "American Story". The Trump campaign was openly misogynistic particularly towards Harris. They strung epithets galore in describing her - "dumb" , "shit" "trash". The Trump/Vance team wore their favoring of the "bros" on their sleeves. Their push culminated with three hour interviews with the titular social media head of the testosterone laden gender, Joe Rogan. They appear to be the side that recognize that there has been a revolution in communication in the form of the internet. There is now a generation that only get their news from that medium.

Inexplicably a chunk of the Trade Unionists voted for Trump when the Harris/Biden administration have done more for Unions since FDR. The suburban Republican women voted for the abortion rights referenda and also voted for Trump. swallowing the non sequitur that they could have it both ways. 

The massive smear campaign against Harris worked. She underperformed many down ballot Democrats. The seriously flawed candidate won. Trump has  the mindset of the Pre Enlightenment period. He is ignorant of the fact that the America that he wants to make great again would never have ever been great in the first place under the policies and autocracy he proposes. The question is how far back he will take it.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The alignment of American political parties has been radically altered. There is no longer a Republican Party which espouses small government, few regulations, open trade, democracy and America's role as the leader of the "Free World".Instead there is a Trump Party which is autocratic, wants to control everything, misogynistic, racist, is against free trade and is happy to let the rest of the world be controlled by other autocrats. 

The Kamala Democratic Party with their main plank being "Freedom" and the continuation of the American story.- "They are not going back". did not carry the day. Unhappily with the resounding defeat going back is exactly what will happen. The Democratic Party needs to get back to its roots and rid themselves of the image of being in the thrall of the cultural elites and join in the communication revolution.

The good news is that Trump can't deliver on his wild promises. In two years time the Women movements will have grown stronger. The downtrodden males will still be downtrodden in spite of Trump. The Blue States will thwart every move he makes to push the clock back. If he carries through on his tariff plans he will plunge America into a recession. The latter would be worsened if Musk cuts 2 trillion from the budget. So the MAGA Trump party will receive setbacks galore in the midterms.  

 Don't take Jay H. Ell's word for any of this as he confidently forecast that Harris would win the Presidency!