THE 2016 POTUS RACE - IT’S HILLARIOUS

With the announcements of Cruz, Paul, Rubio and Hillary the 2016 Presidential Derby is off. It is hard to believe that we still have 20 months to go and that the media are going to do all they can to keep us in suspense over every yard of this race. It is exhausting to reflect what we are going to be put through, especially, bearing in mind what we have all been through just to arrive at the starting gate. So steel yourself for the cliff hanging journalism that is going to keep us transfixed to the box while flipping through our e mails, social media and the like, in case G-d forbid we should miss a minute of it or a detail. Every nuance will be visited and revisited, analyzed and reanalyzed, regurgitated and chewed upon till every last possible interpretation has been wrung out of it all, 24/7, on more and more channels. The media frenzy will make it nail biting and gripping even if the race is one long yawn. (Blog: “Hillary, the Media Run Presidential Horse Race and Her E Mails”.

SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST

The depressing part of it all is that there is no end to this ongoing saga as one four year POTUS election cycle is concertinaed into the next. The script never changes other than the details and of course the dramatis personae. After the next 20 months when the debates, the primaries and then, finally, the election is over, we are supposed to have a two year honeymoon period, where the President is the greatest thing since Abe Lincoln, (or maybe in this case Mary Lincoln), both in America and the world. Well its never two years because after a year there is the run up to the midterms. There the President’s agenda gets its first public test. Invariably he does not do too well and then he/she? goes into a defensive mode for the next two years as he/she? wants a second term to be able to fulfill his/her? agenda. 

Thus there is another two year presidential campaign in the final 2 years of the first term. The President then wins a second term but the Congressional numbers decrease or do not recover enough from the first midterms so as to make life difficult. This time there is no official honeymoon. Then in the next midterm the President, who is now unrecognizable from the fresh optimistic young looking candidate of six years earlier, is so gray and tired that one cannot but help feeling sorry for him. The POTUS receives another electoral blow and is declared a “lame duck.” as the cycle and speculation for the next President begins. Who needs this vertiginous existence?

THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS

As Jay H. Ell mentioned the details change. The first time around Obama’s honeymoon lasted two days and the second time around he refuses to ride into the sunset like any respectable ‘lame duck”. But he broke the mould. One out of every five Americans still believe he wasn’t born in America and the same five believe Ted Cruz was, even though he really was born in Canada. The POTUSES all reside in the, now inappropriately named, White House and all their wives are elevated to the position of First Lady even though they never ran. Now the Founding Fathers, not Mothers you note, never envisioned that Hillary would be First Lady unelected as well as elected and that makes Bill unconstitutional as the first man to be an unelected First Man. If Hillary is elected there will be a lot of firsts just like there was when Jordan Spieth won the Masters. (One doesn’t realize what a sexist society we are in till one realizes it. Just in case you think that the Masters is called the Masters by chance it is not. Only because everyone created one big stink a few years ago did the Augusta Country Club change their constitution and invite a woman, (one only), to be a member of their august(a) Club which hosts the Masters, not the Misses, every year). The furore subsided as apparently one Miss, among all the Masters, was as good as a mile.

HILLARY IS THE MAN

Any rate where was Jay H. Ell, oh yes Hillary. Hillary is odds on favorite to win the Presidency just because it is finally a women’s turn. Presumably we will go back to white men after that - as Bill O’Reilly of Fox News said, “This used to be a white man’s country”. Now between you and Jay. H. Ell, this Clinton has more going for her than just being a woman, having been in politics for about fifty years, First Lady, (unelected), US Senate and Secretary of State, but it is the woman thing that she is pushing and that she is a daughter, wife, mother and grandmother - all womanly things. She also believes that it is time for a woman POTUS. To paraphrase  what Churchill said, “Trust America to elect the right demographic after they have tried every other one”.

HILLARY STARTS NOT WITH A BANG BUT A WHIMPER

For everyone waiting for Hillary to announce her Presidency in front of the Benghazi Embassy in battle fatigues with sweat and blood dripping, while on cell phones to Putin and the POTUS  and using her own server to e mail Bill that she was singlehandedly holding the Embassy, there was a big let down. After the sound and fury of Ted and Rand and then a dramatic Marc, it was all so everyday and ordinary, especially juxtaposed with the all high sounding odds the GOPers were shouting, including the wannabes like Jed and Scott Walker. All she did was in a two minute social media videotaped event was join in with ordinary people who just happened to represent every demographic in America. It was a populist message couched in the simplest terms focussing on the economy. She wanted people to get ahead in a society where the deck was stacked in favor of the other people, (the one percenters minus her). The people needed a champion and she wanted to be it. Foreign policy, her forte, Hillary was tossed off at the end with a commitment to keep the Homeland safe.

She followed this up by scooting of into a van called Scoobie, to cross half of America to talk to these selfsame people that featured in her Presidential announcement especially the selfsame people in Iowa. She in turn was followed by half of America’s media people half of whom thought her entrance was masterful and the other half who maintained it was banal. They were all screaming out for detailed policy statements so that half of them could crucify her and the other half could praise her. So let it be with Hillary. There is little doubt that in her simple announcement she connected with every demographic and let it be known that she was in it for them. She was not going to a coronation she was going connecting.

THE GOP SECOND STRING

Only the GOP second string is in the race as yet and their focus was on grandiosity. They all screamed that Hillary should be more specific, but she can and they can’t. Her base is not worried about gay rights, amnesty for immigrants, minimum wage, taxing the rich…. Hillary obviously will leave wiggle room for her big financial backers but at least she is in sync with her electorate. 

The forty three year old Rubio made his declaration in front of Miami’s Freedom Tower, the Cuban refugees’ Staten Island. America needed new ideas and he was the new kid on the block to deliver. He attacked Obama’s Israeli policy and humped it onto Hillary which is the theme of all the Republican runners. Rubio no doubt has a future and he is not going away. He carries far more gravitas than the other two and has to be a pain in the neck to his mentor Jed. Jed championed him and now when he needs him to deliver the Hispanic vote his protege wants it for himself. Is nothing sacred?

Libertarian Rand Paul also wanted to get rid of Washington and chuck out the IRS and is making an attempt to connect with minorities. He is certainly different but every time he takes his Libertarian views to their natural conclusion he gets into trouble. “He is unafraid to challenge the status quo”. Another bright young guy who is a prisoner of his own philosophy and into the bargain has managed to antagonize the Tea Party, which is in fact the GOP.

Ted Cruz is the purest of the pure Tea Partiers although he will have plenty of competition. Like the others he is for the constitution, for family, (traditional of course),stripping Washington of power, a hawkish foreign policy and like all the others against Hillary.

All three as everyone else on the other side wants to lump Hillary with Obama. They all want to run against Obama. Heavens knows why as they loose every time but it is the only policy they all agree on.Then they are all for Israel and to sanction Iran, improving the economy but to a lesser or greater extent they are stuck with the Party’s antiquated social agenda and stymied by their own financial philosophy that can only make matters better for the one percenters.

WHAT’S NEXT?

So we are waiting for the GOP heavy hitters, Jeb from Florida and Scott from Wisconsin. It is going to be a long hot summer times two as these five and the Republican third string, also yet to join, duke it out. Its hard to see any winner emerge that can beat Hillary. Jeb’s tactic is to win by as little as possible so that he doesn’t find himself into a Romney like position. GOP Chairman Reince Priebus’s nightmare scenario is back again as the GOP candidates eat each other up and chew through wads of money,

Hillary is going to make this election about the economy, the rights of all groups, and inequity in pay. The GOP believes their best chance is to make it about Foreign Affairs which ironically is Hillary’s strong suit. It is unlikely that Hillary will bite. Obama is doing her front running on equal pay and the like and ignoring the tough decisions on foreign policy that she can fudge later as the electorate are not too interested. 

Everyone now needs real money to contest. Gone are the days that fifty million dollars looked respectable. That is now needed for openers. Of the candidates officially running only Cruz is likely to have that parameter as a stumbling block. If Hillary is not contested then she will have all of a billion plus and by some estimates two billion. If she is contested it will be by a no hoper whom she would not be diverting too much cash on and just getting her nationwide infrastructure in place. (Please Joe Biden spare us. Has the guy got no insight?  It’s very worrying that he is a heart beat from the Presidency).

Money buys everything including researchers. According to Fox News, American Rising, a Republican research group have a 100 researchers digging up dirt on Hillary. Dirt is needed in the Primary States and the big money hubs such as New York, San Francisco and Boston. What an awful waste of cash why not just make the dirt up? The biggest smear on Obama cost nothing just saying he wasn’t born in America. Donald Trump, (when will he enter?), claimed to have hired investigators who had found the full story and he then admitted he was lying for the good of the country to focus attention on the lie. People still believe the story. 

So just state with all the gravitas in the world that you have learned from Clinton insiders that Hillary is a cross dresser. Then show a picture from her waist down wearing slacks and photoshop a fly onto her slacks and wallah you will have her and the whole Democratic Party denying it and you would give the media another crises to discuss with all the usual suspects on the all the usual panels on all the usual channels weighing in. Most important the same folks who would still believe that she murdered Vince Forster, (even though Kenneth Starr after months of dirt digging said she didn’t), will believe this.

While there is a long long way to go Jay H. Ell cannot see Hillary losing unless she falls of her horse. In the meanwhile America will remain in permanent status electionious and all the intravenous ativan in the world will not stop the jerking.

For whatever unconscious reasons Jay H. Ell bucked his cynicism and sat down to blog this all. Maybe he is addicted and if he doesn’t comment he will suffer from withdrawal symptoms. 

Watch this space for Jeb and Scott the real contenders.

It really is Hillarious.

NCPD SHOOTING AND THE SUPPORTING CULTURE

There is so much profoundly disturbing about the shooting of a 50 year old African American man, Walter Scott, by a White Police Officer, Michael Slager of the North Charleston Police Department, (NCPD), that one does not where to begin. The alleged cold blooded murder comes at a time when there have been a slew of similar high profile incidents, within a relatively short space of time, where law enforcement is seemingly immune from the consequences of what appears to be a homicide to the lay person. Starting with the vigilante Zimmerman killing of Travyon Martin and continuing with the Ferguson slaying of Michael Brown, the choking death of Errol Garner on Staten Island, the shooting death of 12 year old Tamir Rice in Cleveland and the downing of John Crawford 111 in a Walmart in Dayton, the unfolding pattern of events has been the same. - a black male is shot in circumstances where a minor offense is alleged or under circumstances that even the most cursory investigation would have counseled caution. 

What then follows seems scripted. There is an uproar by the body politic, protests, dry explanatory statements from the police who claim they were acting out of self defense or fear of life and limb, a smear of the victim, and where there are judicial proceedings of one sort or another the bar is so low or the system so weighted that the defendants are exonerated. One would like to believe that with the video and the first hand credible courageous evidence of the witness to these events that this is an open and shut case but stick around ….

It is hard to face up to the reality of what is being presented as one believes that law enforcers, in general, are upright, take the trust society puts in them seriously and that these are just isolated events, as they may well be. However the time has come to probe deeper into these incidents. The video cellphone has rocked our unconditional faith in law enforcement much in the manner that DNA evidence did in questioning of the guilt of some of those languishing in jail or death row for rape and murder. The North Charleston Mayor admitted that if it wasn’t for the video it was unlikely that the arraignment of Office Slager would have materialized. How does one now feel about the two hundred odd police shootings in South Carolina, of whom 79 succumbed these past five years, where in every instance no culpability was found? (Like DNA the video camera will help exonerate as well as convict defendants in the years to come).

THE CONTEXT OF THE POLICE BEHAVIOR

Ferguson Missouri 

One also questions how on earth this type of behavior can occur in a vacuum? In Ferguson Missouri a Justice Department investigation of the Ferguson Police Department, (FPD), following the Michael Brown death, a culture of corruption and mal fides was found to be present through the whole law enforcement and town legislature system. The town was being financed by fines and court fees disproportionately being dished out to the black citizens. The City Manager pressured the Police Chief to collect more fines and the latter delivered. This objective was achieved and officers were evaluated on “productivity”. 

The report states that this culture impacted the behavior of the Officers in the day to day activities where they illegally harassed citizens usually black. Infringements included constitutional violations such as penalizing free speech, improper stops and arrests, interpreting harmless behavior as threatening and the use of excessive force. The statistics show that African Americans were the group far more likely to suffer from these practices.The officers were not subject to review or disciplining for these endemic violations.

These aforementioned abuses were aided and abetted by a Municipal Court that acted in a draconian fashion backing up the extortionist behavior of the police. The report cites numerous examples of increases of fines and ever increasing court costs. African - Americans were far more likely to have extended court stays, arrest warrants and less dismissals of their cases. Ninety -two percent of the arrest warrants issued by the court were for this population group. The racial bias of these activities is reflected in that over ninety percent of the citations and arrests warrants were of African Americans. The overwhelming reports of police violence against alleged offenders involved Black Citizens as did all the incidences of police canines' bites.

At the time of the death of Michael Brown there was substantial mistrust of the FPD and the investigation of the Justice Department negated the argument of the Ferguson officials who maintained that the protests were due to outside agitators. The report resulted in high profile resignations including the Chief of Police, the City Manager and the Judge of the Municipal Court. It is a pity that Prosecutor McCullough didn’t resign too.

So it is not unreasonable to conclude that Michael Brown’s violent death at the hands of the police took place in a culture of police and city bias to towards the African American citizenry of Ferguson.

Cleveland Ohio

In Cleveland  a twelve year old African American Tamir Rice’s death occurred, under highly questionable circumstances as confirmed by the police video. A Justice Department investigation into the Cleveland Police Department, (CPD), had been initiated at the behest of the Mayor of Cleveland following community wide protests at the behavior of the Department and a statement by the Ohio Attorney General that there was “systemic failure” of the CPD.  The investigation concluded that the Department used “unnecessary and excessive” force in violation of the fourth amendment. The types of excessive force the report detailed were “deadly force including shootings and head strikes”. Similarly the overuse of tasers, chemical spray and fists were listed. The CPD was criticized for violent behavior towards mentally disabled citizens some of who just needed welfare assessments. The officers were cited for dangerous or poor tactics that made violence an inevitability. 

It is reasonable to conclude that Tamir Rice’s death took place in the context of a dysfunctional Police Department that had been cited for endemic, unnecessary and excessive force.

WHAT ABOUT NORTH CHARLESTON?

As soon as the first hand report accompanied by a video evidenced  the penny dropped with the NCPD and the City of North Charleston. Michael Slager must have wondered what had hit him. He never saw the bus coming!. He was fired from the NCPD and charged with first degree murder without bond. The City of North Charleston is purchasing body cameras for all officers and the legislation in the South Carolina Congress for body cameras for all South Carolina officers is suddenly on the fast track. Lessons had been learned from the arrogance of other police departments, cities and States who just stuck to their guns in similar circumstances. So there has been some progress….. Jay H. Ell would hate to think that the Republican Mayor was motivated because he is up for reelection in a constituency that voted 71 percent for Obama in the 2012 election.

It is early days yet but what can be learned about the culture of the police in North Charleston? More will transpire later so let us begin by examining the information that was provided by the NCPD and Slager himself prior to the release of the cell phone video. Jay H. Ell can only imagine that it will get worse for Slager. The post mortem results hardly can to be corroborative of the early narrative of the shooting. 

Slager’s edited radio dispatch call.

Firstly, there was the release of an edited recording of the radio dispatch call that Slager made of the incident. (The immediate question is how does an officer who is ostensibly in fear for his life have the time to give a running commentary of the situation and the follow up question is why was this released report an edited version of the interaction?)

“In foot pursuit - black male green shirt black pants”

The  radio report edits are here so it is impossible to know what happens in the interim other than a call goes out to all police in the area then seconds later: 

“Shots fired. Subject is down. He grabbed my taser”.

“Everyone is ok except the subject, (sic), …. it looks like to the chest  to the right side. Unresponsive… another gunshot wound to the buttock”. 

At the immediate debriefing also on videotape Slager explains, “He grabbed my taser”.

Jay H. Ell will not insult the intelligence of his few readers with how this was designed to fit in on a cover up of the shooting but in the cold light of day, which this type of incident is never exposed to, all this will not jive with the subsequent unfolding of events.

NCPD statements prior to the video emerging.

The first statement within a few hours of the event emanating from the NCPD reinforced and embellished on the cover up version of Slager. The statement referred to a traffic stop “gone wrong”. The officer was said to have deployed his department issued Taser and the suspect gained control of it and attempted to use it against the officer.  The officer then resorted to his service weapon and shot him.

Again in the light of subsequent events Jay H. Ell will not insult the intelligence of anyone by pointing to the lies in this other than to say another dimension has been added to the cover up, the official stamp of the NCPD. In what may be a potential crime Slager is acquitted without there being as much as the slightest investigation. Slager has very little to worry about - maybe some rationalization after the post mortem that the suspect turned his back on him as he shot and that his gun jammed and he went on firing or whatever - does it really matter? Slager had been there before and he knew the drill. 

The Dominican Republic immigrant Feidin Sanatana’s video

As the subsequent phone video shows Officer Slager goes through a charade of handcuffing the dead suspect - presumably to add credence to his story as to what a risk this guy posed to him and to reinforce how frightened he was that he even had to handcuff a “wounded” man - remember he had already reported that Scott had been shot in the chest and the buttock. He nonchalantly moves an object, assumed to be the taser from the place where the shots were fired from to where the body is now. “Not to worry the boys will back him up”, as they do - backing him up that there was CPR was a nice touch. (Officer Slager faced a similar situation at least once before when confronted with a serious complaint of grievous assault and there had been no repercussions then). He is sure the  suspect in the fleeing green shirt had a rap sheet a mile long, he had after all resisted arrest and “fought” with him - What is a law officer supposed to do?

One other damning piece of hubris is that the video shows Slager staring at videographer Santana and the latter acknowledges that he did. Slater carries on doing what he did to cover up his alleged crime - “Who is going to believe this dark guy? It will be my word against his”. Santana then gets close to Scott and Slager and he is told to leave the scene.

The three minute video is so indelibly etched in the psyche of America that one needs hardly needs to go through each frame and it will be referenced where relevant.

A New Witnesses to the “altercation” emerges

Subsequent to the release of the video an additional eye witness described what she saw when Slager caught up with Scott. She explained it was like a tussle with Scott saying, “What do you want?”, “What did I do?”, type of thing. She categorically maintains that she did not hear Slager shout stop but heard the shots. Thus, a Miss Gwen Nicholl’s corroborated Feidin Santana’s testimony of the event prior to the latter turning on his phone recorder. Santana, who is mature beyond his years, saw Slager on top of Feidin and heard the sound of the taser go off. He reports that he, like Ms. Nicholls, never saw Scott go after the taser and “He never tried to fight he just wanted to run away”.

The perceptions and behavior of Feidin Santana, the immigrant Dominican Barber 

What struck Jay H. Ell more than else about the culture surrounding the NCPD was through the eyes, perceptions and the behavior of the young barber who witnessed and videotaped this crime scene on his way to work. He has reflected that he immediately new the magnitude of what he recorded and he felt his life may be in danger. He wanted to get out of Charleston and start his life anew elsewhere. His life had changed in a matter of seconds. He at one stage wanted to erase the tape. He maintained that, “He is still scared”. The follow up question was of whom is he still scared and why? His lawyer answered for him. “There are other officers who said they gave CPR who are still around and Feidin wants to know how he can get protection”.

After reading the police report on the incident Santana decided go to the police. He told them that the police officer wasn’t abused and that he had witnessed everything and he had recorded it. One of the police asked him if it was true that he had a recording and then told him to wait. Santana became scared as he felt that the interview was going the wrong way and absconded. A decision that his lawyer confirmed was “very wise” under the circumstances as there were other law enforcement officers that now could be potentially investigated for the cover up.

In spite of all this Santana felt that the family needed justice so he decided to give the video to them. When asked to comment on the impact that this incident might have had he concluded that it would detract from the positive image that Latin America has of the USA. He also believed that it was important to expose this type of abuse of minorities by the police.

Needless to say the family did not give the video to the police but rather to the New York times. .. Houston we have a problem…..

WHAT NOW?

Arising out of the earlier incidents mentioned above President Obama established “The President’s Task Force on 21St Century Policing" which released its first report this March. The basis for the investigation was the distrust that exists between too many police departments and too many communities where ,“Too many people, particularly young people of color, do not feel as if they are being treated fairly”. Inter alia the objective of the task force, that had input and representation from every involved group, was to foster strong collaborative relationships between law enforcement and those that they serve.

One of the themes addressed in the conference was that it was society that made some of the unpopular laws that the police carry out, for example the draconian drug laws that have criminalized so many. In addition as Jay H. Ell has tried to point out the police force is sometimes a reflection of the society they operate in. One of the Task Force’s overarching recommendations was to promote community based initiatives that address the core issues of poverty, education, health and safety.

There were lists of recommendations such as independent police investigations into alleged improprieties, transparency of the workings of law enforcement and training in diversity and communication.

So well meaning people are aware of the problem which is not just a policing problem. The latter are in many ways just doing what the community they operate in expects them to do. And never lose sight of the fact that there are many well functioning communities with functional law enforcement.

IRAN - NOT ABOUT TRUST BUT ABOUT AVOIDING WAR

Now that the Joint Comprehensive Plan, (JCP), has been announced between the two negotiating parties, the six nations and the theocracy of Iran, there has been wide ranging reaction across the political spectrum. There are loosely two camps emerging - one virulently opposed that is spearheaded by Bibi Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, who has formed an alliance with the Republican Party of the USA .The latter believe that there should have been no dealing at all with Iran in the first place and see the plan as the go ahead to Iran to build a nuclear bomb. The second group are supportive, skeptical and apprehensive, to a lesser or greater degree, but have accepted the concept of negotiation as an opportunity to avoid war. (Incidentally among the second group are Bibi’s former heads of Mossad and Israeli Intelligence who see much positive in the JCP). There is an additional important sub faction in the USA Congress which includes all the GOP and unknown number of Dems who want to reserve the right to accept or reject the final deal.

All the above presupposes that the real Iranian power brokers wlll accept the deal which is contrary to the Ayatollah Khameini’s previous position on the subject. According to the Business Insider neither the JCP nor an acknowledgment of it has appeared on the Ayatollah’s website. Khameini had previously criticized the concept of a preliminary framework and wanted an immediate lifting of sanctions on the signing of the final pact. However, Jay H. Ell finds it impossible to interpret what the Iranian leadership mean with their bizarre and contradictory statements so any analysis of what they do or don’t do or say or don’t say, is impossible.

It is time for the nay sayers to stop playing games and openly proclaim that the only alternative to the painstaking tortuous process that has been conducted, with it’s surprisingly detailed but inevitably ambiguous outcome, is bombing the bejesus out of Iran and that means war. A war, as Obama has admitted, may ultimately be inevitable but let us at least try and prevent it. Netanyahu’s approach to link Iran’s recognition of Israel as part of the nuclear discussion is akin to declaring war. It can be likened to having insisted that Stalin drop Communism and totalitarianism if he wanted to join the allies against the axis powers. (Incidentally, the repulsive Iranian hierarchy are at present organizing a cartoon exhibition depicting the holocaust, indicating where their sick minds are at).

One of the major reasons for this impasse between the allies is what Billy Joel so poignantly wrote and sung, “A Matter of Trust”. (There is also obviously no trust between Iran and the six nations). In addition fixed viewpoints and prejudices, of which everyone is guilty of, including Jay H. Ell, hinder accessing the situation of the new Middle East and the JCP dispassionately.

The allies cannot afford the luxury of mistrust among one another so let us objectively analyze the responses to the accord and what is standing in the way of moving forward. The stakes are high so it is time for those oppose Iranian nuclear ambitions to forget their differences and attempt to create a common front on a crisis that many, with their Chamberlain allusions, are comparing to the Hitler threat, which implies that there is going to be war whatever happens.

MISTRUST BETWEEN THE “ALLIES”

The central problem of the key players that oppose Iran is a lack of trust. Nobody trusts anybody or accepts their bona fides.

Obama - The Manchurian Candidate Shiite Muslim

The GOP and Bibi don’t trust Obama. For whatever reasons the very fact that he is even parlaying with Iran forces forces them to believe he is going to sell the USA, his Arab Sunni allies and Israel the USA’s chief Middle Eastern ally, down the river. Obama’s alleged motivations are that he is at heart a Muslim and as his father was Shia he is therefore supporting Iran. So he is either a Manchurian Shia candidate in support of Iranian world domination, doing this for his legacy or an anti semite or all three. 

As these arguments haven’t an ounce of objective evidence to back them up so let us for the moment ignore them and accept that Obama is attempting to avoid a war and trying to fulfill his philosophy of diplomacy rather than war. After all that broad philosophy did win him the Nobel Prize! If Obama is indeed a deep-seated Shia Muslim plant to one day become President of the USA so he could sell Israel down the river and allow Iran to obtain a nuclear option then one has to hand it to the conspirators for their thoroughness and attention to detail. They arranged for the former Israeli Heads of Mossad and Intelligence to come out broadly in favor of the accords. Now that takes real planning!

Obama, finally, has not let his irritation towards Netanyahu cloud his judgement on America’s commitment to Israel. He has stated categorically that he will stand by Israel if they are attacked and if the deal weakened Israel he would regard it as “my failure”.

Netanyahu - A war mongering political opportunist.

Netanyahu has been regarded as a highly divisive figure responsible for breaking the US Congressional  bipartisan support for Israel. It is alleged that he did this in order to shore up his floundering political support in Israel. In his speech to Congress he hopelessly exaggerated the concessions that the USA were affording Iran in the negotiations He is now characterizing the Joint Comprehensive Plan as a direct pathway to the bomb - an interpretation that is not supported by any serious analyst. He is also not taking into account that if this whole process is revisited, de novo, Bibi’s “ third option”, the reluctant Russians and Chinese are likely to call it quits and then there will be no deal and war. Also the Iranians are unlikely to agree as among other factors the six nations word would be meaningless.

So the for the moment let us accept that Netanyahu has his beleaguered country’s interests at heart and is taking Iran at their word that their right to obliterate Israel is “non negotiable”. It is from this position that his opposition to the framework of accord is coming from. If he persists with his current line those who are trying to prevent war will just have to politely agree to disagree with him.

GOP’S - Pathological hatred of Obama

History will reflect that never before has a President been subject to such opposition and vilification as Obama has been. From the word go he has been opposed on almost every initiative, appointment, piece of legislation he has introduced. It comes as no surprise that all the  GOP Presidential Candidates condemned the deal even before the ink was even dry.

Let us accept that the GOP are acting this way as they have Israel’s interests at heart and just need more briefing, input and reassurance on the JCP and  final deal. 

WHAT ARE UNCHALLENGED FACTS?

 There are plenty of unchallenged facts but some of these are being deliberately ignored in the heat of the debate. These include:

* The six participating nations, all with disparate agendas, swallowed their differences to present a united front in the negotiations. Three of them, Russia, France and Germany played “bad cop” when Iran were stalling with their foreign ministers going home, ala a Middle Eastern market, as they saw “little hope for a deal”. This cohesion in of itself was a major diplomatic coupe and kudos to Kerry. This especially so when the USA and Russia are at loggerheads, China has no international morality other than trade and Germany and France oscillate between the fear of a nuclear Iran and the trade that would follow with a lifting of sanctions.

* Nobody but nobody trusts Iran.

* America has not abandoned Israel. Obama reiterated this in his call to Netanyahu.

* America has not abandoned their traditional Sunni Arab allies. Obama is supporting the Saudi and Gulf States directly in the war against the Iranian backed Houthi in Yemen. Obama has also sent weaponry to Egypt and has been expansive in his support of Jordan. Obama has set up meetings with the Gulf States at Camp David later this year. The Saudis have unconditionally supported Obama and the JCP.

* The actual populations of both Iran and the USA are in favor of negotiations in the hope of a successful outcome. In the USA the polls indicate that two  - thirds of Americans are in support  of the process and while there are no statistics for the Iranian electorate their spontaneous celebrations speaks volumes. The Iranian civilians would hardly be rejoicing at the possibility of  being able to continue with a nuclear program! 

* Iran is continuing with its neo - colonialist terrorist policy, having provided Hamas with tens of millions of dollars to rebuild its tunnels. They are also still propping up Assad. They are having military exercises in the event that the deal fails as they claim they expect to be attacked.

* Obama has distanced himself from Iran’s expansionist objectives by making the USA air cover in the successful Iraqi capture of ISIS stronghold in Tikrit dependent on Iran withdrawing its forces.

* Iran spends 30 billion on defense and America spends 600 billion.

* US Congress axing the deal will drop America’s standing in the world to zilch. 

So stripped of mistrust, bias, prejudice and rhetoric all of America, Israel, the Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan should be behind the UNO mandated six negotiators in their dealing with the rogue state of Iran. To those that oppose that approach the only alternative is war and they need to say so or explain how it is not going to happen.  Otherwise their contributions should be directed at  problems with the Joint Comprehensive Plan and suggestions as to improvements and clarifications.

PROBLEMS WITH THE JOINT PLAN.

The devil is always in the details and this was just a framework so many issues need to be spelled out.There have to be very few if any who don’t at least want clarity let alone a spelling out of the provisions. It is being spun by each side to make it appear that they got all they wanted. Some of the spin is interpretation, for example,  Iran claim that they have kept all their nuclear facilities which is true but they omit to add that they have been stripped of their nuclear ability. The Theocracy claim that sanctions will be lifted immediately while the six nations see a gradual loosening dependent on Iran fulfilling the denuclearization of their plants. Objections to the JCP that do not relate to interpretation or issues that were not part of the agenda of the negotiations, include the following some of which are listed in a Likud working paper:

* No timetable for lifting of sanctions.

* No provision for unannounced inspections to take place anywhere and at anytime.

* Where is the Uranium stockpile going to go?

* Will the research and development nuclear reactors be more sophisticated than those used for energy production? It is not clear what can be done or not done in the R and D component.

* What is going to happen to Iran’s Inter Ballistic  Missiles?

* How effective is the mechanism to reintroduce sanctions?

* How does the prospective deal differ from the one negotiated with North Korea?

WHAT NOW?

From an allied point of view the ball is very much in Obama’s court. He needs to do what he enjoys least - smoozing, arm twisting, persuading, cajoling, caucusing, dealing, informing and hearing members within the American Congress, the six nations, (don’t forget they are an essential piece of this), and the Middle Eastern Regional allies. The latter are crucial piece to all of this so if Obama can initiate a formal alliance with the international allies, Israel, the Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan he will do much to reassure this group that he is onsides. This particularly so as Iran continues its local expansionist policies, in Syria, Iran,Yemen and finances Hamas and Hezbollah. It is time for Obama to create a coherent Middle East policy as opposed to his ad hoc responses to every crisis.

 At the end of the day Obama is sitting in the pound seats for the very reason that brought Iran to the table in the first place - the economic chaos in Iran and its impact on their restless citizens. Obama and Kerry need to play hardball in the drawing up of the final accord. It is worthwhile repeating, a bad deal is worse than no deal.The danger that Obama faces is that the radical nay sayers will cut his feet from underneath him before he can hold up Iran’s nuclear ambitions from a three month lead time to at least ten to fifteen years. One final thought if the GOP finally succeed in blocking the accord and Iran immediately proceed to make a bomb who will be responsible?

….Then of course there is always the hope that there will be regime change in Iran….If not, to Jay H. Ell, the most important provisions for the final pact are unimpeded verification as often as is needed and a detailed roadmap to respond to any abrogations of the final treaty.

IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS - REALITY, POLITICS and HYSTERIA

The Iran nuclear talks have dragged on and have now been postponed till June. The hopeful news is that a far more comprehensive agreement, The Joint Comprehensive Plan, than was expected has been reached. The final details still have to be hammered out and even the POTUS cautioned that it ain’t over till the Muezzin calls the believers to prayer from the Mosque Minaret. Also a concordat suddenly doesn't turn the Iranian frog into a Princess. 

The talks have been ongoing, having started in 2009, and have as their objective to rid the world of an Iranian nuclear threat in return for lifting the crippling economic sanctions on the theocratic Shiite Republic. There are several interested parties in this controversy ranging from the six major nations lead by the USA, who represent the UNO, Iran’s Middle Eastern neighbors of which the Sunni Arab nations and Israel are the most prominent and the American legislative body where Iran and Israel have become central issues. On its face it appears that the fact that Iran is on its knees with runaway inflation, no trade, and are teeming with restless natives who Jay H. Ell believes ultimately forced them to ignore their own grandstanding. While Jay H. Ell has been critical of President Obama’s shambolic foreign policy, (Blog: The New Middle East - Obama’s Failure To Create a Coherent Policy), he is convinced he is no pushover and he better than anyone else knows that no legacy is better than a Bush Iraq or a Johnson Vietnam legacy. And in case anyone has forgotten, he has achieved what no Republican has - he vanquished the Clintons!

As every facet of Iran and its nuclear program raises such debate let us start and see what is and what is not in dispute. In so doing it will be found that there is very little if anything that is not in dispute. 

WHY THE TALKS AT ALL?

The world would be better a place without Iran having a nuclear program:

 If one agrees with that statement than there have to be talks. That basic premise is challenged by Israel’s Netanyahu.That has been Bibi’s war cry all along but he reinforced it when the Iranian Military Commander of the elite Basij, Commander Mohammed Reza Naqdi, who as recently as March 31, 2016, said the destruction of Israel was “non negotiable”. The Israeli PM angrily retorted that it was “monstrous” in the light of that genocidal statement for it to be acceptable to negotiate to give Iran a clear path to the bomb.

 Mohammed was purposively oblivious to what was going on in Lausanne nor he did not care as he added Saudi Arabia to the “non negotiable” list. The Saudis were going to be stuck out just like Saddam Hussein which is a bit ironic because Iran in an 8 year war couldn’t destroy him and just left it to King George 43. It has been reported that, behind the scenes, the Saudis, Gulf States, the Egyptians and the Jordanians feel the same way as the Israelis which would not be surprising taking into account the Iranian rhetoric. (Maybe that is the way the Iranians communicate love, respect and friendship).

Notwithstanding all the other Iranian outrageous smalltalk including their Supreme Leader’s “Death to America” stuff and bombing mock US aircraft carriers, the fabulous six nations lead by a dogged Kerry still continued. The Iranian chorus line that punctuates the talks labelling everything that happens as part of the devious American strategy did not dampen the ardor of Kerry who would not yield an inch nor give up. And to Jay H. Ell's amazement and making a mockery of the content of the"leaked talks"a joint framework was announced. (Blog: "Iran - What is Obama Thinking").

The reason behind hanging in there is if the six can somehow limit Iran’s nuclear arsenal then Iran is less likely to be able to do these terrible things that they unashamedly threaten to do. This is not a marriage commitment that is being negotiated between a loving couple but an anti nuptial contract in an arranged marriage between two waring parties. And there are ample precedents for this type of shot gun marriage - Stalin and the allies, Nixon and his visit to China, Kissinger and north Korea and Reagan who persuaded Mr. Gorbachev to “tear down that wall” and on and on.

WHAT IS A GOOD DEAL?

It will be fine as long as there is a good deal:

There are those that believe that a good Iranian deal is an oxymoron because any deal with Iran is a bad deal. They counter that there is negotiation on the very issues that define what a “good deal” might be and negotiation means compromise. They continue that if Iran is really serious about not wanting a nuclear weapon why are they hanging onto every possible means to create one? They are not persuaded that Iran are doing this for their “self respect”. If they are tough tittie as this is all about potential genocide not the Ayatollah’s psyche. 

 Broadly speaking the six are practical as to what they define a “good deal” to be. The central thrust is that Iran must be left in a situation that it would take them a year to build a nuclear capability if they defied the accord. This would allow the world ample time to intervene. That circumstance the six would consider a giant step up from the estimated three months it would take the Iranians to launch a nuclear warhead now. In order to reach this year long lead time a number of parameters have been defined. It is instructive to examine these and see how these are met by the preliminary  Joint Comprehensive Plan framework:

Verification:  Before considering the Lausanne outcome even the most enthusiastic negotiation supporters were skeptical unless the question of oversight of Iran was conclusively answered. Reassurance up the ying yang has been built into the “Joint Comprehensive Plan”, (JCP), presented by the two parties. Under the heading of “Inspections and Transparency”, unfettered access is provided in some instances for up to twenty to twenty - five years. This includes intrusive inspections and monitoring the process from beginning to the end from the mining of the ore to observing the reactors to the disposal of the radioactive spent rods. 

Length of supervision: Detractors of any understanding that could result from Lausanne maintained that unless oversight continued for the foreseeable future the whole exercise was meaningless. Monitoring continues as noted for up to a quarter of a century. So even though enrichment of uranium can start after ten years there are limitations to that activity and it is subject to submission of all Iranian agendas to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran agreed that even after all these mandatory oversights had transpired they would abide by the provisions of the nuclear proliferation treaty and it’s oversight infrastructure.

Fordow Underground facility for Uranium enrichment: This facility more than any others conjured up nightmares for the opponents of an accord, especially Israel, as it was an impregnable fortress . The JCP addresses this fear directly - “This entity will no longer enrich uranium for at least fifteen years”.

Natanz Uranium Facility:  This is currently the breadbasket of uranium production in Iran with close on 20,000 nuclear reactors. The number of the latter would be drastically reduced to six thousand and the reactors would be highly inefficient in enriching uranium being first generation reactors. The latter are relics from the 50s to the 70s and were used for commercial purposes.

Enrichment:  Notwithstanding all of the above if Iran could enrich its Uranium to nuclear weaponry level they would still have attained their means for holding the Middle East and the world to ransom. Any enrichment above five percent is on its way to the slippery slope of the ninety percent needed for nuclear warheads. Iran agreed not to enrich its uranium above three point sixty - seven percent for fifteen years. Also there would be no plutonium manufacturing, the other commodity used for nuclear weaponry, during this period. 

Stockpiles of enriched uranium:  Iran at the time of negotiations had over 8 tonnes of enriched uranium so even with all the other provisions they had the potential to proceed with their obvious sinister objectives. The JCP includes a section that mandates that all enriched uranium stockpiled and any that results from future energy and research activities will be exported.

Arak heavy water facility: Another realistic angst was the Plutonium heavy water facility at Arak which also had the potential to produce a Plutonium armed nuclear weapon. The latter would be reconfigured by an agreed upon design so as not to be able to bring about weapon’s grade plutonium.

Sanctions Lifting:  All this is nice and dandy but the detractors countered that the moment sanctions are lifted and the Iranians achieve their economic recovery they will tear this all up and do as they please. The JCP only allows for a gradual lifting of sanctions depending on the progress of the mandates. Furthermore it stipulates the immediate reintroduction of these if there is any breach of the protocols. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY IN LAUSANNE:

While the JCP itself outlines in its preamble that, “Nothing is agreed upon till it is agreed upon”, the six nations led by America have won the framework for a “Good Deal”. The Iranians, despite their rhetoric, have caved, for the moment. The jubilation in the streets and the outpourings in the social media in the theocracy give you a clue as why they felt they had no choice. If the deal holds and the hardliners of either side don’t derail it, it has placed a decided dampener on Iranian imperialist ambitions for the foreseeable future. This does not mean they will stop them but without a nuclear threat to back them up they will not be nearly as menacing. The outcome also forestalls a nuclear race in the region. 

If however the hardliners on either side sabotage the deal one is back to square one. The Ayatollah fundamentalist can say to hell with the world we will take them on and the American Legislature can stick to their belief that the Iranians cannot be trusted and any deal is a bad deal. While the latter sentiment has to be the belief of Netanyahu and the Sunni Arab Gulf States they have no veto of the outcome of this transaction.

THE POLITICS OF THE JCP IN THE USA and ISRAEL

How this all plays in Peoria and Ashkelon will have a weighty impact on the politics of both America and Israel. While every GOP Republican Presidential candidate is behind Bibi and against Barak, apparently only Republican Presidents can barter with the devil, the backtracking has already begun. Senator Kirk who had a bill before the higher chamber demanding that the accord be debated immediately has deferred his legislation till July. The GOP Congress itself has been quiet. Boehner thus far has just attacked America’s foreign policy but is yet to comment on the accord.

As Jay H. Ell has already blogged the American public are in favor of negotiations and they will certainly be more so after this lot. In addition he warned that BIbi’s self serving intervention to the Joint Congress Meeting would be counterproductive and in the light of this outcome Netanyahu’s prophesy of the deal was way off the mark to the point of sounding hysterical. His counterproductive intrusion into the American political process has served to smash the bipartisan support Israel has always had and now among the Democrat rank and file, that were Israel’s strongest supporters, Israel is regarded after Mexico and the UK as America’s third closest ally. While sentiment in America, especially Congress, will remain pro Israel, Netanyahu’s Republican obsequious followers may begin to distance themselves from him.

Obama while he may have had a resounding triumph in outstaring the Iranians still has to put together a coherent Middle East policy taking into account the priorities of his allies in the region. He has to unambiguously dissociate himself from the Iranian camp in their regional expansionism and support of terror. If they can deal with him and still shout destruction to America and her main allies he can at least say sucks to Assad. Remember this is not an arrangement built on love but rather on business. As the POTUS himself said this has nothing to do with trust.

Maybe just maybe the world has just become a better place.

Netanyahu for his part has proved that his Intelligence core was right when they told him to stay at home and shut up and wait. They and the generals hold much sway in Israel. How this will effect the byzantine Israeli political process is hard to tell but one fact is certain it will not strengthen Bibi and Obama stocks will once again rise in the land of the bible.